Theories of Intentions and the Problem of Attention

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keren Yarhi-Milo
Keyword(s):  
Selective Attention ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Ideal Type ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Military Doctrine ◽  
The Status ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Theoretical Foundations ◽  
Defense Theory

This chapter outlines the theoretical foundations of the selective attention thesis and three competing ones: the capabilities, strategic military doctrine, and behavior theses. It divides perceived political intentions into five ideal-type categories based on the degree to which the enemy is believed to have the determination required to revise the status quo and the extent of its revisionist intentions: unlimited expansionist, limited expansionist, unlimited opportunistic, limited opportunistic, and status quo powers. The chapter proceeds by offering a set of hypotheses as to how civilian decision makers and intelligence organizations conduct intentions assessment. In particular, it considers the vividness hypothesis, the subjective credibility hypothesis, the organizational expertise hypothesis, and the offense–defense theory. It also explains the methodology used in the three case studies.

Summary and Implications

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keren Yarhi-Milo
Keyword(s):  
Selective Attention ◽  
International Relations ◽  
International Relations Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Military Doctrine ◽  
The World ◽  
And Behavior

This chapter summarizes the book's empirical findings and explains their practical policy implications as well as their significance for international relations theory. The selective attention thesis is pitted against the capabilities thesis, strategic military doctrine thesis, and behavior thesis for each of the three historical episodes of intentions assessment. The selective attention thesis is more successful than the capabilities, strategic military doctrine, and behavior theses in accounting for the empirical patterns observed for the three cases. The evidence shows that when assessing intentions, decision makers rely on their personal impressions and are influenced by indicators that are consistent with their own theories about how the world operates as well as their preexisting stance toward an adversary. In contrast, intelligence organizations pay selective attention to those indicators that match their bureaucratic expertise. The chapter concludes by suggesting important avenues for further research.

scholarly journals Music and Movement in Britain, 1793–1815

2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 403-415
Author(s):  
Mark Philp
Keyword(s):  
Lived Experience ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Napoleonic Wars ◽  
Political Controversy ◽  
The Status ◽  
And Behavior

AbstractThe frequent references to the actors and events of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars in the titles of the dance tunes of the period raise the question of how we should understand their significance. This article argues that the practice is one of a number of examples of music and song shaping people's lived experience and behavior in ways that were rarely fully conscious. Drawing on a range of music collections, diaries, and journals, the article argues that we need to recognize how significant aural dimensions were in shaping people's predisposition to favor the status quo in this period of heightened political controversy.

US Decision Makers’ Perceptions of Soviet Intentions

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keren Yarhi-Milo
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Selective Attention ◽  
National Security ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Jimmy Carter ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
The U.S

This chapter examines the indicators used by U.S. President Jimmy Carter and two key decision makers in his administration, National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, to assess the intentions of the Soviet Union during the period 1977–1980. Using evidence from U.S. archives and interviews with former U.S. decision makers, it compares the predictions of the selective attention thesis, capabilities thesis, strategic military doctrine thesis, and behavior thesis. After discussing the U.S. decision makers’ stated beliefs about Soviet intentions, the chapter considers the reasoning they employed to justify their intentions assessments. It then describes the policies that individual decision makers advocated and those that the administration collectively adopted. It also explores whether decision makers advocated policies that were congruent with their stated beliefs about intentions and evaluate sthe impact of beliefs about intentions on U.S. foreign policy at the time.

British Decision Makers’ Perceptions of Nazi Germany’s Intentions

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keren Yarhi-Milo
Keyword(s):  
Selective Attention ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Military Doctrine ◽  
National Archives

This chapter examines the evolution of the views held by Britain’s key decision makers, including Foreign Secretary Anthony Eden and Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, about Nazi Germany’s intentions, the indicators they used to make inferences about the nature and scope of Adolf Hitler’s intentions, and the policies they advocated that reflected their assessments. Drawing on documents in the British National Archives, the chapter provides evidence that strongly supports the selective attention thesis along with the vividness and subjective credibility hypotheses, adequately supports the behavior thesis’ current actions hypotheses, and only weakly supports the capabilities and strategic military doctrine theses. While Hitler’s costly actions played a relatively important role in the intentions assessments of some decision makers, indicators associated with the capabilities thesis or strategic military doctrine thesis and Germany’s past actions were less central to the process of inferring Hitler’s political intentions.

Indicators of Nazi Germany’s Intentions and the Coming of World War I, 1934–39

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keren Yarhi-Milo
Keyword(s):  
World War I ◽  
Selective Attention ◽  
Interwar Period ◽  
Military Doctrine ◽  
World War ◽  
Adolf Hitler ◽  
And Behavior

This chapter focuses on British assessments of Nazi Germany’s intentions during the interwar period (1934–1939). It outlines the predictions generated by each of the four explanations about perceived intentions and examines changes in German military capabilities, doctrine, and actions during this period. The chapter first considers the hypothetical arguments of the selective attention thesis and highlights its predictions for this case, focusing on the vividness hypothesis, the subjective credibility hypothesis, and the organizational expertise hypothesis. It then derives predictions for each of the competing theses, namely: capabilities thesis, strategic military doctrine thesis, and behavior thesis. The findings suggest that Britain’s perceptions of Germany from 1934 to 1939 were shaped by costly actions that had been undertaken by the latter well before Adolf Hitler rose to power in January 1933.

EXPRESS: They’re Just Not that into You: How to Leverage Existing Consumer-Brand Relationships through Social Psychological Distance

2020 ◽  
pp. 002224292098449
Author(s):  
Scott Connors ◽  
Mansur Khamitov ◽  
Matthew Thomson ◽  
Andrew Perkins
Keyword(s):  
Congruency Effect ◽  
Psychological Distance ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Marketing Communications ◽  
Social Psychological ◽  
Brand Relationships ◽  
Experience Goods ◽  
Marketing Practice ◽  
The Status ◽  
And Behavior

While prevailing marketing practice is to encourage ever stronger relationships between consumers and brands, such relationships are rare and many consumers are relationship-averse or content with the status quo. The authors examine how marketers can more effectively manage existing brand relationships by focusing on the psychological distance between consumers and brands in order to match close (distant) brands with concrete (abstract) language in marketing communications. Through such matching, marketers can create a beneficial mindset-congruency effect leading to more favorable evaluations and behavior, even for brands that are relatively distant to consumers. Study 1 demonstrates the basic mindset-congruency effect and Study 2 shows it is capable of affecting donation behaviors. Study 3 documents two brand-level factors (search versus experience goods, brand stereotypes) that moderate this effect in managerially relevant ways. Study 4 shows that activation of the mindset-congruency effect influences consumers to spend more, and that these behaviors are moderated by consumer category involvement. The authors conclude with marketing and theoretical implications.

Die Sicherungsverwahrung im Nationalsozialismus und ihre Fortentwicklung bis heute

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristina Schuster
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
National Socialism ◽  
Legal History ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Day Case ◽  
The Status

The analysis of historical injustices in the application of preventive custody during the period of National Socialism allows for the deduction of requirements pertaining to current developments in the field. Through the perspective of legal history, as well as the examination of case studies, I aim to pinpoint the various problems that are immanent to the laws surrounding preventive custody to this day. Case studies from the early years of its application (1935 – 1943) reveal the extent to which the practice interfered with the lives of individuals and successively eroded constitutional standards. By illustrating the consequences of implementing radical preventive measures, I intend to challenge continuing developments in the field of preventive custody and to offer up a number of demands pertaining to the status quo.

Much ADO About Nothing? Revisionists and Traditionalists Choose an Introductory English Syllabus

1996 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Robinson ◽  
Dacher Keltner
Keyword(s):  
Social Conflict ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Much Ado About Nothing ◽  
Introductory Course ◽  
The Status ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior ◽  
Book Selections ◽  
English Faculty

One perspective on social conflict asserts that attitudes and behavior are relatively independent, thus suggesting that opposing partisans may differ minimally in concrete actions, but may assume great differences in attitude and ideology Alternatively, we proposed that partisans' concrete preferences are linked to ideology, and that partisans would exaggerate the ideological extremity of their opposition These hypotheses were tested within the “Western Canon debate” by asking revisionist and traditionalist partisans (English faculty) to select from a list of 50 books a syllabus of 15 books they would teach in an introductory course and 15 books that they believed their ideological counterparts would choose Consistent with the hypotheses, traditionalists selected books of more traditionalist ideology than did revisionists (who chose more books by female and minority authors) and exaggerated the extremity of revisionists' preferences Revisionists made less ideological book selections and judged traditionalists more accurately This asymmetry may reflect the standing of the two groups relative to the status quo

scholarly journals Is Russia an Arctic Status Quo Power?

Politik ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Morten Larsen Nonboe
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International Law ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
North Pole ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Russian Foreign Policy ◽  
The North ◽  
The Status

Russian foreign policy in the increasingly important Arctic region reflects an ambiguous combination of assertiveness and cooperation in accordance with international law. Against this background, the existing literature on the Arctic tends to polarise around revisionist and status quo interpretations of Russian foreign policy in the region. The present paper contrasts the divergent interpretations through case studies of the Russian flag planting on the North Pole seabed in 2007 and Russia’s participation at the Ilulissat Summit in 2008 which can be seen as ‘crucial’ cases for the competing interpretations. Overall, the case studies provide support for a modidied version of the status quo interpretation which incorporates insights from the revisionist interpretation. 

Exiles at Home

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Searle
Keyword(s):  
Seventeenth Century ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Letter Writing ◽  
Spiritual Experiences ◽  
Literary Genres ◽  
Corporate Worship ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Status ◽  
At Home

The radical and repeated changes in state religion, accompanied by persecution of any who openly dissented from the status quo, meant that there were numerous groups who found themselves in exile at home in England during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. This chapter focuses on the experience of Protestant Nonconformists in the later seventeenth century. It examines the ways in which Nonconformist communities interpreted their experiences, interrogating and recording these in a variety of literary genres. The concept of exile at home is analysed through five discrete and interconnected categories: imprisonment; legal disputation in the courts; corporate worship; itinerant preaching; and letter writing. Each section draws upon a number of case studies that illustrate the wide range of spiritual experiences and theological convictions in Nonconformist communities and how these were encapsulated, transformed, and disputed in journals, letters, sermons, and biographies, amongst other literary genres.

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