Policy Choices and Turnout

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan E. Leighley ◽  
Jonathan Nagler
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
National Election ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact

This chapter considers how the policy positions offered by candidates influence voter turnout. It expects that larger differences in the policy positions of candidates are associated with a higher probability of voting. Using the American National Election Studies data, it examines the impact of individuals' perceptions of candidates' policy positions—how they compare to each other, and how they compare to the individuals' preferences—on individuals' decisions to vote. It finds that individuals are more likely to vote when they perceive a greater policy difference between the candidates. The poorest Americans have also become more indifferent between candidates in recent elections—that is, they see fewer differences between candidates now when compared to wealthier Americans.

The Impact of State Television on Voter Turnout

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 257-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rune J. Sørensen
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
The United States ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
New Tv ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact

In an influential study, Matthew Gentzkow found that the introduction of TV in the United States caused a major drop in voter turnout. In contrast, the current analysis shows that public broadcasting TV can increase political participation. Detailed data on the rollout of television in Norway in the 1960s and 1970s are combined with municipality-level data on voter turnout over a period of four decades. The date of access to TV signals was mostly a side effect of geography, a feature that is used to identify causal effects. Additional analyses exploit individual-level panel data from three successive election studies. The new TV medium instantly became a major source of political information. It triggered political interest and caused a modest, but statistically significant, increase in voter turnout.

Does NHK Make You Smarter (andSuper NewsMake You ‘Softer’)? An Examination of Japanese Political Knowledge and the Potential Influence of TV News

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHRISTIAN COLLET ◽  
GENTO KATO
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Political Knowledge ◽  
Political Awareness ◽  
News Program ◽  
Tv News ◽  
Unit Increase ◽  
Effects Of Media ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact

AbstractA fundamental component of liberal democracy – citizen knowledge – has only recently been examined in Japan; rarer still are assessments of the impact of media consumption on political awareness. In this paper, we utilize two recent sources – the Japanese Election Studies III (JESIII) and GLOPE2005 – to address two related questions: (1) what factors influence Japanese political knowledge? and (2) is the changing media environment in Japan having an influence on what citizens know about political affairs? With regard to the first question, we find, in line with previous studies in the US context, that knowledge is explained by education, gender, and politically impinged employment as base factors, with interest, efficacy, and civic duty playing a role as second-stage behavioral factors. Evidence of other traits presumed to distinguish the more informed Japanese – dissatisfaction with politics and community mobilization context (living in urban areas, districts with higher voter turnout, and having larger social networks – remains mixed. Regarding the second question, we find that the effects of media exposure on knowledge vary. Where the GLOPE2005 finds an influence of regular newspaper reading, the JESIII indicates that watching a TV news program ‘often’ also boosts knowledge. The JESIII results reveal further that,ceteris paribus, regular exposure to NHK contributes to higher levels of knowledge at a rate that is comparable to a one unit increase in educational attainment. Conversely, we find that softer news programs (e.g., Fuji TV'sSuper News) have a depressive effect that appears to decrease knowledge as exposure accumulates. The direction of the causal arrow is not entirely clear. At the same time, our findings lend credence to previous work that raises concerns about the ‘infotainization’ of Japanese (and US) news programming (e.g., Taniguchi, 2007; Prior, 2005). Rather than demystifying or democratizing Japanese politics, softer programs may simply be perpetuating extant gaps between elites and the public.

scholarly journals Young Voters after the 2008 Election: A Disappearing Act?

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscilla Southwell
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
National Election ◽  
Young Voters ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
2008 Election ◽  
Election Studies

<p>This study examines the decline in voter turnout among young voters between the 2008 and 2012 elections. Our findings suggest that those young voters who dropped out of the electorate in 2012 were more likely to express feelings of alienation, as measured by the American National Election Studies indices of trust and efficacy. Such “dropout” voters were also more likely to have voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 election. These findings are crucial, as the level of alienation in the 2016 election appears to be even higher, and may influence the outcome of the election.</p>

The Impact of Voter Uncertainty and Alienation on Turnout and Candidate Policy Choice

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-292
Author(s):  
Natalya R. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Spatial Model ◽  
Policy Preferences ◽  
Policy Choice ◽  
Formal Models ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Ideal Points ◽  
The Impact

AbstractFormal models of elections typically assume that voters are sure of their ideal points on the policy spectrum. Meanwhile, the empirical evidence suggests that voters are often uncertain about their ideal positions. In addition, alienation appears to play a key role in explaining voter turnout in elections. Using a spatial model that incorporates abstentions and the concepts of alienation and tolerance, I show that a positive correlation between extreme policy preferences and certainty among voters can affect voter turnout and result in the divergence of candidate policy choices.

Party Loyalty in Canada: The Question of Party Identification

1975 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 543-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Jenson
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Recent Article ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
National Election ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Small Measure ◽  
Election Studies

In a recent article in this Journal, Paul M. Sniderman, H. D. Forbes, and Ian Melzer challenge the proponents of what they characterize as the “textbook theory” of Canadian parties. They claim that their examination of the 1965 and 1968 Canadian national election studies contradicts the conclusions of almost every analyst of parties and voting in Canada. While a little debunking of long-held interpretations is always valuable in any discipline, one should exercise caution. Conventional wisdom does not usually acquire that status without containing at least some small measure of validity. In this case I must conclude that more confusion has been created than has been cleared away and previous analysts should not be considered to have erred quite as much as the authors of this article would like us to believe. Sniderman et al. argue that, because of “an obsession with national unity” on the part of political parties and a fear of fragmentation which produces undifferentiated politics of accommodation, “Canadian voters tend to lack strong loyalties to the older parties, at least when compared to the Americans and the British. As a consequence, electoral support for the older parties in Canada tends to be unstable.”The first part of this proposition asserts that concern with national unity necessarily produces such similar policy positions that parties are interchangeable, being distinguished only by their leadership. Although this is an interesting proposition, it will not be dealt with here.

Voter Turnout and the National Election Studies

2000 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 389-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry C. Burden
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
National Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Bivariate Statistics ◽  
Question Wording ◽  
Linear Fashion ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
House Election ◽  
Election Studies

Though the overreporting of voter turnout in the National Election Study (NES) is widely known, this article shows that the problem has become increasingly severe. The gap between NES and official estimates of presidential election turnout has more than doubled in a nearly linear fashion, from 11 points in 1952 to 24 points in 1996. This occurred because official voter turnout fell steadily from 1960 onward, while NES turnout did not. In contrast, the bias in House election turnout is always smaller and has increased only marginally. Using simple bivariate statistics, I find that worsening presidential turnout estimates are the result mostly of declining response rates rather than instrumentation, question wording changes, or other factors. As more peripheral voters have eluded interviewers in recent years, the sample became more saturated with self-reported voters, thus inflating reported turnout.

Does Survey Participation Increase Voter Turnout? Re-examining the Hawthorne Effect in the Swedish National Election Studies

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikael Persson
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Treatment Effect ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Data File ◽  
National Election ◽  
Hawthorne Effect ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
High Propensity ◽  
Survey Participation ◽  
Election Studies

A Hawthorne effect found in election studies is that pre-election survey participation increases voter turnout. Using the Swedish National Election Studies, Granberg and Holmberg (1992) showed evidence in support of this effect. However, their findings have been criticized and more recent studies have failed to find any treatment effect of pre-election survey participation (cf. Mann 2005). This study re-examines an updated version of Granberg and Holmberg's time-series cumulative data file covering eight additional election studies (for a total of 14 election studies from 1960 to 2010). These studies have an experimental component, since half of the sample was randomly assigned to be interviewed before the election and the other half after the election. By comparing validated turnout in the pre-election sample with the post-election sample, it is possible to estimate the causal effect of survey participation on voter turnout. The results show that participating in the pre-election survey indeed has a significant and positive effect on voter turnout. Moreover, this article evaluates whether the treatment effect is unevenly distributed in the population. Results show that citizens with a low propensity to vote are more affected by taking part in election studies than citizens with a high propensity to vote. The study also estimates the long-term effects of survey participation. Results show that participating in an election survey can have significant effects on voter turnout several years later.

Introduction

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan E. Leighley ◽  
Jonathan Nagler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact

This introductory chapter sets out the book's purpose, which is to examine voter turnout in every U.S. presidential election from 1972 through 2008 in order to address four questions regarding the changing political context of turnout. First, how have the demographics of turnout in presidential elections changed or remained the same since 1972? Second, what have been the consequences of the broad set of election reforms designed to make registration or voting easier that have been adopted over the past several decades? Third, what is the impact of the policy choices that candidates offer voters on who votes? And fourth, is the conclusion—of the now classic study of voter turnout in the United States by Wolfinger and Rosenstone (1980)—that voters are representative of nonvoters on policy issues accurate, and therefore, who votes does not really matter? The findings on these four questions advance our understanding of turnout and its consequences for representation in fundamental ways.

Comment on “Voter Turnout and the National Election Studies”

2003 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D. Martinez
Keyword(s):  
Cross Section ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
National Election ◽  
Political Analysis ◽  
Eligible Population ◽  
Voting Age ◽  
Panel Effects ◽  
Election Studies

A recent article by Barry Burden inPolitical Analysisalerts us to a steadily increasing gap during presidential election years between self-reported turnout in the NES (National Election Studies) and “official turnout” figures based on the voting-age population (VAP), and points to declining response rates as a culprit. Changing the baseline from the VAP to the VEP (voting-eligible population) significantly changes these conclusions, and point to panel effects as a culprit. The rise in the gap was not linear, but it does emerge rather suddenly in 1996. Gaps between NES self-reported turnout and VEP estimates are higher in presidential election years than in off-years, and self-reported turnout is higher among long-term panel participants than among cross-section respondents in multielection panels.

scholarly journals Bias in Self-reported Voting and How it Distorts Turnout Models: Disentangling Nonresponse Bias and Overreporting Among Danish Voters

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 590-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens Olav Dahlgaard ◽  
Jonas Hedegaard Hansen ◽  
Kasper M. Hansen ◽  
Yosef Bhatti
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
National Election ◽  
Nonresponse Bias ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Election Studies

Most nonexperimental studies of voter turnout rely on survey data. However, surveys overestimate turnout because of (1) nonresponse bias and (2) overreporting. We investigate this possibility using a rich dataset of Danish voters, which includes validated turnout indicators from administrative data for both respondents and nonrespondents, as well as respondents’ self-reported voting from the Danish National Election Studies. We show that both nonresponse bias and overreporting contribute significantly to overestimations of turnout. Further, we use covariates from the administrative data available for both respondents and nonrespondents to demonstrate that both factors also significantly bias the predictors of turnout. In our case, we find that nonresponse bias and overreporting masks a gender gap of two and a half percentage points in women’s favor as well as a gap of 25 percentage points in ethnic Danes’ favor compared with Danes of immigrant heritage.

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