scholarly journals Young Voters after the 2008 Election: A Disappearing Act?

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscilla Southwell
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
National Election ◽  
Young Voters ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
2008 Election ◽  
Election Studies

<p>This study examines the decline in voter turnout among young voters between the 2008 and 2012 elections. Our findings suggest that those young voters who dropped out of the electorate in 2012 were more likely to express feelings of alienation, as measured by the American National Election Studies indices of trust and efficacy. Such “dropout” voters were also more likely to have voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 election. These findings are crucial, as the level of alienation in the 2016 election appears to be even higher, and may influence the outcome of the election.</p>

The Conditional Effects of Health on Voter Turnout

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Lyon
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
High Income ◽  
Poor Health ◽  
Conditional Effects ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Excellent Health ◽  
Reported Health ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Context: Voting is the central instrument of democracy, yet there are a number of impediments that affect citizens' ability to turn out to vote. Health is one such impediment. Methods: This study draws on 2012 and 2016 election data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study and the American National Election Studies and uses objective validated measures of voter turnout as well as postelection data on respondents' reasons for nonvoting to examine the relationship between self-reported health and voter turnout. Findings: The results indicate poor health depresses turnout among low-income voters but not high-income voters. A low-income citizen in poor health is 7 points less likely to turn out to vote than a low-income citizen in excellent health is. In contrast, a high-income citizen in poor health is just as likely to vote as a high-income citizen in excellent health is. Moreover, low-income citizens in poor health are 10 points more likely to cite sickness as an impediment to voting than are otherwise similar high-income citizens who are also in poor health. Conclusions: The findings have implications for health policy and unequal electoral engagement and suggest that health may narrow the scope of US democracy as poor health pushes low-income citizens out of the electoral sphere while high-income citizens continue to turn out to vote regardless of their underlying health conditions.

Voter Turnout and the National Election Studies

2000 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 389-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry C. Burden
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
National Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Bivariate Statistics ◽  
Question Wording ◽  
Linear Fashion ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
House Election ◽  
Election Studies

Though the overreporting of voter turnout in the National Election Study (NES) is widely known, this article shows that the problem has become increasingly severe. The gap between NES and official estimates of presidential election turnout has more than doubled in a nearly linear fashion, from 11 points in 1952 to 24 points in 1996. This occurred because official voter turnout fell steadily from 1960 onward, while NES turnout did not. In contrast, the bias in House election turnout is always smaller and has increased only marginally. Using simple bivariate statistics, I find that worsening presidential turnout estimates are the result mostly of declining response rates rather than instrumentation, question wording changes, or other factors. As more peripheral voters have eluded interviewers in recent years, the sample became more saturated with self-reported voters, thus inflating reported turnout.

Does Survey Participation Increase Voter Turnout? Re-examining the Hawthorne Effect in the Swedish National Election Studies

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikael Persson
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Treatment Effect ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Data File ◽  
National Election ◽  
Hawthorne Effect ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
High Propensity ◽  
Survey Participation ◽  
Election Studies

A Hawthorne effect found in election studies is that pre-election survey participation increases voter turnout. Using the Swedish National Election Studies, Granberg and Holmberg (1992) showed evidence in support of this effect. However, their findings have been criticized and more recent studies have failed to find any treatment effect of pre-election survey participation (cf. Mann 2005). This study re-examines an updated version of Granberg and Holmberg's time-series cumulative data file covering eight additional election studies (for a total of 14 election studies from 1960 to 2010). These studies have an experimental component, since half of the sample was randomly assigned to be interviewed before the election and the other half after the election. By comparing validated turnout in the pre-election sample with the post-election sample, it is possible to estimate the causal effect of survey participation on voter turnout. The results show that participating in the pre-election survey indeed has a significant and positive effect on voter turnout. Moreover, this article evaluates whether the treatment effect is unevenly distributed in the population. Results show that citizens with a low propensity to vote are more affected by taking part in election studies than citizens with a high propensity to vote. The study also estimates the long-term effects of survey participation. Results show that participating in an election survey can have significant effects on voter turnout several years later.

Policy Choices and Turnout

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan E. Leighley ◽  
Jonathan Nagler
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
National Election ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact

This chapter considers how the policy positions offered by candidates influence voter turnout. It expects that larger differences in the policy positions of candidates are associated with a higher probability of voting. Using the American National Election Studies data, it examines the impact of individuals' perceptions of candidates' policy positions—how they compare to each other, and how they compare to the individuals' preferences—on individuals' decisions to vote. It finds that individuals are more likely to vote when they perceive a greater policy difference between the candidates. The poorest Americans have also become more indifferent between candidates in recent elections—that is, they see fewer differences between candidates now when compared to wealthier Americans.

Introduction

Citizen Now ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth C. Matto
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Interest ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
2008 Election ◽  
Percent Decline

“Will they turn out to vote this year?” With every election, it seems that this is the question most commonly asked about young adults. Unfortunately, the answer isn’t always clear. After years of steady decline, the 2008 election marked an uptick in youth voter turnout rates and, seemingly, in political interest and enthusiasm as well. Then came a 6 percent decline in rates in 2012, followed by record low rates of registration and turnout in 2014. As the 2016 election loomed on the horizon, yet again, there were signs of hope. Youth voter turnout rates throughout the primaries and caucuses broke records....

Comment on “Voter Turnout and the National Election Studies”

2003 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D. Martinez
Keyword(s):  
Cross Section ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
National Election ◽  
Political Analysis ◽  
Eligible Population ◽  
Voting Age ◽  
Panel Effects ◽  
Election Studies

A recent article by Barry Burden inPolitical Analysisalerts us to a steadily increasing gap during presidential election years between self-reported turnout in the NES (National Election Studies) and “official turnout” figures based on the voting-age population (VAP), and points to declining response rates as a culprit. Changing the baseline from the VAP to the VEP (voting-eligible population) significantly changes these conclusions, and point to panel effects as a culprit. The rise in the gap was not linear, but it does emerge rather suddenly in 1996. Gaps between NES self-reported turnout and VEP estimates are higher in presidential election years than in off-years, and self-reported turnout is higher among long-term panel participants than among cross-section respondents in multielection panels.

scholarly journals Bias in Self-reported Voting and How it Distorts Turnout Models: Disentangling Nonresponse Bias and Overreporting Among Danish Voters

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 590-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens Olav Dahlgaard ◽  
Jonas Hedegaard Hansen ◽  
Kasper M. Hansen ◽  
Yosef Bhatti
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
National Election ◽  
Nonresponse Bias ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Election Studies

Most nonexperimental studies of voter turnout rely on survey data. However, surveys overestimate turnout because of (1) nonresponse bias and (2) overreporting. We investigate this possibility using a rich dataset of Danish voters, which includes validated turnout indicators from administrative data for both respondents and nonrespondents, as well as respondents’ self-reported voting from the Danish National Election Studies. We show that both nonresponse bias and overreporting contribute significantly to overestimations of turnout. Further, we use covariates from the administrative data available for both respondents and nonrespondents to demonstrate that both factors also significantly bias the predictors of turnout. In our case, we find that nonresponse bias and overreporting masks a gender gap of two and a half percentage points in women’s favor as well as a gap of 25 percentage points in ethnic Danes’ favor compared with Danes of immigrant heritage.

The National Election Studies Revisited

1990 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 141-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nelson Wiseman
Keyword(s):  
National Election ◽  
Election Studies

What Are the Effects of Educational Mobility on Political Interest and Participation in the Indian Electorate?

Asian Survey ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 423-439
Author(s):  
Reetika Syal
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Political Participation ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
National Election ◽  
Political Interest ◽  
Educational Mobility ◽  
Access To Resources ◽  
Education Levels ◽  
Economic Constraints ◽  
Election Studies

Abstract This article finds, through statistical analysis of the National Election Studies (2004) data, that an increase in intergenerational education levels can positively influence an individual's political interest and political participation. Participatory trends in India are influenced by demographic factors such as caste, class, gender, income, and locality. However, this study finds that education can have a liberating effect from these various socio-economic constraints. It can provide greater access to resources and information, thus helping to increase active political participation.

Candidate Preference, State Context, and Voter Turnout: Comparing Non-Voters and Voters in the 2016 Presidential Election

The Forum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-227
Author(s):  
Vladimir E. Medenica ◽  
Matthew Fowler
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Electoral Behavior ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Contextual Variation ◽  
Candidate Preference ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior ◽  
Future Work ◽  
State Context

Abstract While much attention has been paid to understanding the drivers of support for Donald Trump, less focus has been placed on understanding the factors that led individuals to turn out and vote or stay home. This paper compares non-voters and voters in the 2016 election and explores how self-reported candidate preference prior to the election predicted turnout across three different state contexts: (1) all states, (2) closely contested states won by Trump, and (3) closely contested states won by Clinton. We find that preference for both candidates predicted turnout in the aggregate (all states) and in closely contested states won by Clinton, but only preference for Trump predicted turnout in the closely contested states won by Trump. Moreover, we find that political interest is negatively associated with preference for Clinton when examining candidate preferences among non-voters. Our analysis suggests that non-voters in the 2016 election held meaningful candidate preferences that impacted voter turnout but that state context played an important role in this relationship. This study sheds light on an understudied component of the 2016 election, the attitudes and behavior of non-voters, as well as points to the importance of incorporating contextual variation in future work on electoral behavior and voter turnout.

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