scholarly journals Bias in Self-reported Voting and How it Distorts Turnout Models: Disentangling Nonresponse Bias and Overreporting Among Danish Voters

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 590-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens Olav Dahlgaard ◽  
Jonas Hedegaard Hansen ◽  
Kasper M. Hansen ◽  
Yosef Bhatti
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
National Election ◽  
Nonresponse Bias ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Election Studies

Most nonexperimental studies of voter turnout rely on survey data. However, surveys overestimate turnout because of (1) nonresponse bias and (2) overreporting. We investigate this possibility using a rich dataset of Danish voters, which includes validated turnout indicators from administrative data for both respondents and nonrespondents, as well as respondents’ self-reported voting from the Danish National Election Studies. We show that both nonresponse bias and overreporting contribute significantly to overestimations of turnout. Further, we use covariates from the administrative data available for both respondents and nonrespondents to demonstrate that both factors also significantly bias the predictors of turnout. In our case, we find that nonresponse bias and overreporting masks a gender gap of two and a half percentage points in women’s favor as well as a gap of 25 percentage points in ethnic Danes’ favor compared with Danes of immigrant heritage.

Why Does the American National Election Study Overestimate Voter Turnout?

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Jackman ◽  
Bradley Spahn
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
National Election ◽  
Nonresponse Bias ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
The Face ◽  
First Time

Surveys are a key tool for understanding political behavior, but they are subject to biases that render their estimates about the frequency of socially desirable behaviors inaccurate. For decades the American National Election Study (ANES) has overestimated voter turnout, though the causes of this persistent bias are poorly understood. The face-to-face component of the 2012 ANES produced a turnout estimate at least 13 points higher than the benchmark voting-eligible population turnout rate. We consider three explanations for this overestimate in the survey: nonresponse bias, over-reporting and the possibility that the ANES constitutes an inadvertent mobilization treatment. Analysis of turnout data supplied by voter file vendors allows the three phenomena to be measured for the first time in a single survey. We find that over-reporting is the largest contributor, responsible for six percentage points of the turnout overestimate, while nonresponse bias and mobilization account for an additional 4 and 3 percentage points, respectively.

Gender Gaps in Electoral Turnout: Surveys versus Administrative Censuses

2021 ◽  
pp. 147892992110195
Author(s):  
Paulo Cox ◽  
Mauricio Morales Quiroga
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Gender Gaps ◽  
Electoral Turnout ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Official Data ◽  
Rule Out

Gender gaps in voter turnout are usually studied using opinion surveys rather than official census data. This is because administrative censuses usually do not disaggregate turnout according to voters’ sex. Without this official information, much of the research on gender gaps in electoral turnout relies on survey respondents’ self-reported behavior, either before or after an election. The decision to use survey data implies facing several potential drawbacks. Among them are the turnout overstatement bias and the attrition or nonresponse bias, both affecting the estimation of factors explaining turnout and any related statistical analysis. Furthermore, these biases may be correlated with covariates such as gender: men, more than women, may systematically overstate their electoral participation. We analyze turnout gender gaps in Chile, comparing national surveys with official administrative data, which in Chile are publicly available. Crucially, the latter includes the official record of sex, age, and the electoral behavior—whether the individual voted or not—for about 14 million registered individuals. Based on a series of statistical models, we find that analysis based on survey data is likely to rule out gender gaps in electoral participation. Carrying out the same exercises, but with official data, leads to the opposite conclusion, namely, that there is a sizable gender gap favoring women.

When ethnic prejudice is political: an experiment in beliefs and hostility toward immigrant out-groups in Italy

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-234
Author(s):  
Mauro Barisione
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Political Communication ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
National Election ◽  
Ethnic Prejudice ◽  
Immigration Issue ◽  
Election Studies

AbstractWhen the immigration issue has been strongly politicized, prejudice toward minority out-groups can be profoundly imbued with politics, to the point that citizen responses to partisan cues about immigrants tend to operate on the basis of a ‘political sympathy/antipathy bias’. This article demonstrates that there is a direct causal relation between the nature (i.e. contents and sources) of political communication over immigrants and voters' responses. Drawing on an experimental design based on ITANES (Italian National Election Studies) 2018 election survey data, it isolates the effect that the voters' ideology and party alignments, as well as the partisan source of a message, exert on manifestations of ethnic prejudice, operationalized as the refusal to accept a plausibile and counter-stereotypical statement about immigrants. It concludes that even a mere symbolic change in communication by those party actors (i.e. the League) which ‘own’ the issue would suffice to attenuate hostility toward out-groups, to the extent that it results from sustained partisan rhetoric and mobilization.

scholarly journals Young Voters after the 2008 Election: A Disappearing Act?

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscilla Southwell
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
National Election ◽  
Young Voters ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
2008 Election ◽  
Election Studies

<p>This study examines the decline in voter turnout among young voters between the 2008 and 2012 elections. Our findings suggest that those young voters who dropped out of the electorate in 2012 were more likely to express feelings of alienation, as measured by the American National Election Studies indices of trust and efficacy. Such “dropout” voters were also more likely to have voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 election. These findings are crucial, as the level of alienation in the 2016 election appears to be even higher, and may influence the outcome of the election.</p>

The Myth of Vote Buying in India

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradeep K. Chhibber ◽  
Rahul Verma
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
National Election ◽  
Vote Buying ◽  
Club Goods ◽  
Common View ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
Buying In

A common view is that in Indian elections parties, politicians, and voters are engaged in a quid-pro-quo in which citizens vote for a politician who offers them individual benefits. We find no evidence that voters exchange votes for benefits. In fact, ideology is a better predictor of the vote than the receipt of private or club goods. The use of cash is indeed widespread in India during election time but money is needed to build the campaign, to mobilize votes and for candidates, and to establish candidates’ credibility as leaders of import. We show this using the survey data from national election studies, a case study, and the results of a small experiment in Tamil Nadu.

The gender gap in voter turnout: An artefact of men’s over-reporting in survey research?

2021 ◽  
pp. 136914812110568
Author(s):  
Daniel Stockemer ◽  
Aksel Sundstrom
Keyword(s):  
Gender Differences ◽  
Survey Research ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Gender Inequalities ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Moderate Evidence ◽  
Official Records ◽  
Cross National

Is there a gender gap in voting? Most cross-national survey research on gender inequalities in voter turnout finds that men have a higher probability to vote than women. Yet, some studies using validated turnout data shed some doubt on this finding. We revisit the question of a gender gap in voting using official records. In more detail, we compare the gender gap in turnout between survey data and official electoral figures across 73 elections. Our results highlight that in surveys, men still report higher turnout in most countries. However, official electoral figures reveal contrasting trends: across countries, women are, on average, more likely to vote. We also test two explanations for this difference in turnout between official figures and surveys: (1) men over-report voting more than women and (2) the survey samples of men and women are different. We find some, albeit very moderate, evidence for the first explanation. We find some, albeit very moderate, evidence for the first explanation and no support for the second explanation. All in all, our research nevertheless suggests that scholars should be careful in using surveys to detect gender differences in voting.

scholarly journals Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters

2019 ◽  
Vol 113 (2) ◽  
pp. 311-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
ARIEL WHITE
Keyword(s):  
Racial Differences ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Court System ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Black Defendants ◽  
First Time ◽  
White Defendants

This paper presents new causal estimates of incarceration’s effect on voting, using administrative data on criminal sentencing and voter turnout. I use the random case assignment process of a major county court system as a source of exogenous variation in the sentencing of misdemeanor cases. Focusing on misdemeanor defendants allows for generalization to a large population, as such cases are very common. Among first-time misdemeanor defendants, I find evidence that receiving a short jail sentence decreases voting in the next election by several percentage points. Results differ starkly by race. White defendants show no demobilization, while Black defendants show substantial turnout decreases due to jail time. Evidence from pre-arrest voter histories suggest that this difference could be due to racial differences in exposure to arrest. These results paint a picture of large-scale, racially-disparate voter demobilization in the wake of incarceration.

Voter Turnout and the National Election Studies

2000 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 389-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry C. Burden
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
National Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Bivariate Statistics ◽  
Question Wording ◽  
Linear Fashion ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
House Election ◽  
Election Studies

Though the overreporting of voter turnout in the National Election Study (NES) is widely known, this article shows that the problem has become increasingly severe. The gap between NES and official estimates of presidential election turnout has more than doubled in a nearly linear fashion, from 11 points in 1952 to 24 points in 1996. This occurred because official voter turnout fell steadily from 1960 onward, while NES turnout did not. In contrast, the bias in House election turnout is always smaller and has increased only marginally. Using simple bivariate statistics, I find that worsening presidential turnout estimates are the result mostly of declining response rates rather than instrumentation, question wording changes, or other factors. As more peripheral voters have eluded interviewers in recent years, the sample became more saturated with self-reported voters, thus inflating reported turnout.

Does Survey Participation Increase Voter Turnout? Re-examining the Hawthorne Effect in the Swedish National Election Studies

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikael Persson
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Treatment Effect ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Data File ◽  
National Election ◽  
Hawthorne Effect ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
High Propensity ◽  
Survey Participation ◽  
Election Studies

A Hawthorne effect found in election studies is that pre-election survey participation increases voter turnout. Using the Swedish National Election Studies, Granberg and Holmberg (1992) showed evidence in support of this effect. However, their findings have been criticized and more recent studies have failed to find any treatment effect of pre-election survey participation (cf. Mann 2005). This study re-examines an updated version of Granberg and Holmberg's time-series cumulative data file covering eight additional election studies (for a total of 14 election studies from 1960 to 2010). These studies have an experimental component, since half of the sample was randomly assigned to be interviewed before the election and the other half after the election. By comparing validated turnout in the pre-election sample with the post-election sample, it is possible to estimate the causal effect of survey participation on voter turnout. The results show that participating in the pre-election survey indeed has a significant and positive effect on voter turnout. Moreover, this article evaluates whether the treatment effect is unevenly distributed in the population. Results show that citizens with a low propensity to vote are more affected by taking part in election studies than citizens with a high propensity to vote. The study also estimates the long-term effects of survey participation. Results show that participating in an election survey can have significant effects on voter turnout several years later.

Policy Choices and Turnout

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan E. Leighley ◽  
Jonathan Nagler
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
National Election ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact

This chapter considers how the policy positions offered by candidates influence voter turnout. It expects that larger differences in the policy positions of candidates are associated with a higher probability of voting. Using the American National Election Studies data, it examines the impact of individuals' perceptions of candidates' policy positions—how they compare to each other, and how they compare to the individuals' preferences—on individuals' decisions to vote. It finds that individuals are more likely to vote when they perceive a greater policy difference between the candidates. The poorest Americans have also become more indifferent between candidates in recent elections—that is, they see fewer differences between candidates now when compared to wealthier Americans.

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