scholarly journals Prediction of Islamic Banking Bankruptcy in Indonesia: Comparative Study of Altman Z-Score and Springate Models

IKONOMIKA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-248
Author(s):  
Shafitra - Nata (STIE Al-Madani Bandar Lampung, Indonesia) ◽  
Rizka Chairunnisa (STIE Al-Madani Bandar Lampung, Indonesia) ◽  
Noman Arshed (University of Management and Technology, Pakistan)
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Company Performance ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Literature Study ◽  
Gray Area ◽  
The Face ◽  
Score Model

Aim of this research is to calculate, measure, analyze, and evaluate predictions of potential bankruptcy of Islamic banking using the modified Altman Z-Score and Springate models and identify differences in the predicted results.  This research uses descriptive quantitative analysis.  Model analysis used is the Modified Altman Z-Score and Springate models.  The research object used is 12 Islamic banks in Indonesia 2013-2019 and data collection includes literature study and observation.Modified Altman Z-Score model predicts that 1.19% of Islamic banking is in gray area and 98.81% is in a non-bankrupt position.  Meanwhile, the Springate model predicts 38.10% of Islamic banking is in a bankrupt position and 61.90% is in a non-bankrupt position.  This research only analyzes and compares the prediction results of the potential bankruptcy of Islamic banking with the modified Altman Z-Score and Springate models.This research can be used as an evaluation material for Islamic Banking in Indonesia in the face of potential bankruptcy so that companies can immediately improve their management and company performance.

scholarly journals Financial Distress Analysis Using Altman Z-Score Model In Sharia Banking In Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Firman Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Good Condition ◽  
Good Health ◽  
Financial Ratios ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Gray Area ◽  
Financial Failure ◽  
Score Model

This study is conducted to explain the risk of financial failure that may occur in Sharia banking which is known asfinancial distress. Quantitative data in the formof financial ratios fromseveral Islamic banks which are the object of the study were analyzed using Altman Z- score model. After analyzing it, it is known that at Bank BRI Syariah Inc, the company experienced financial distress in 2015, in the following year the company experienced improvementthus in 2016-2019, the company was in good health. Bank BTPN Syariah Inc in 2015-2019 was in a good condition, which means that there was no financial distress or was in a gray area position. Bank Syariah Mandiri Inc experienced financial distress in 2015-2019, which means that during that time the company was in a gray area position

scholarly journals Validity of Altman Z-Score Model to Predict Financial Failure: Evidence From Jordan

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sufian Al-Manaseer ◽  
Suleiman Al-Oshaibat
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Financial Statement ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
Financial Failure ◽  
Amman Stock Exchange ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Score Model

This paper aims to investigate the Validity of Altman z-score model to predict financial failure in insurance companies listed on Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) over the period 2011-2016. To achieve the goal of the study, the study depended on the different statistics analytical method and Multiple Linear Regression through doing the statistical analysis of the independent variables on the dependent variable related to the subject of the study through the (E-views) program in order to cover the analytical part of the study, in addition to the descriptive method through relying on books, periodicals, previous studies and financial reports of the insurance companies of the study’ sample, whether the direct or the indirect ones, to cover the theoretical part. The result of the study finds a high predictive power for Z-score model. Moreover, the findings reveal that Z-Score model could be valuable instrumental indicators for many users of financial statement such as financial managers, auditors, lenders, investors, to make right decisions in the face of financial failure.

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF DUAL BANKING SYSTEM IN BANKING IN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanatun Nisfah Nurun Nikmah ◽  
Tulus Suryanto ◽  
Surono Surono
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Common Goal ◽  
The Face ◽  
Capital Access ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
Banking Institution ◽  
Negative Factors

Evaluation of Dual Banking System in Indonesia. Dual Banking System is the application of two banking systems in one banking institution, namely conventional banking and Islamic banking. Indonesia can optimize the dual banking system through strength share and weakness cover, namely Islamic banks are generally superior in terms of a more stable system in the face of market changes but have deficiencies in infrastructure, whereas conventional banks have large market and capital access and more infrastructure complete, but very vulnerable to crises due to the negative factors of economic integration which are already very strong. The superiority of the dual banking system concept is seen in two separate systems that operationally do not affect each other, but have one common goal, namely financial stability that supports economic growth. So, to achieve this goal the two systems can work together in external factors such as access to capital, infrastructure, supervision or clearing systems that can help interbank liquidity.

scholarly journals Potensi Kebangkrutan Pada Sektor Perbankan Syariah Untuk Menghadapi Perubahan Lingkungan Bisnis

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dwi Nuraini Ihsan ◽  
Sharfina Putri Kartika
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Safe Zone ◽  
Total Asset ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Book Value ◽  
Score Analysis

Potential Bankruptcy On Islamic Banking Sector Facing Business Environmental Changes This research aims is to evaluate the soundness of Islamic banks and to predict the bankruptcy potency from the Islamic banks. The methods that used on this paper are RGEC method and the modified altman z-score analysis. The RGEC is represents by NPF, LR, risk profile, ROA, NCOM, and CAR. The altman z-score is represents by the ratio of networking capital to total asset, retained earning to total asset, earning before interest and tax to total asset, and book value of equity to book value of debt. The result shown that the Islamic bank’s soundness used RGEC methods is fit into healthy category in 2010-2014 periods.  The altman z-score also show that the Islamic banks fit into safe zone in 2010-2014 periods.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v14i2.2268

scholarly journals The Prediction of Bankruptcy using Altman Z-Score Model (Case Study in BRI Bank, BNI Bank, Mandiri Bank, BTN Bank)

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Mrs Herlin
Keyword(s):  
Z Score ◽  
Model Case ◽  
Gray Area ◽  
Score Model ◽  
Altman Model

Based on the calculation of the Altman model in predicting bankrupt at PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk in 2014, 2015, 2016, PT. Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk in 2014 and 2015 and is PT.Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk in 2014 with a score of Z-score above 2.99 indicates that included in the company healthy or not potential to go bankrupt. Companies included in the category of unhealthy or potential companies to go bankrupt with a Z-score of less than 1.81 ie PT. Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk in 2014 with a Z-score of 1.405 (<1.81). Companies included in the Gray Area (unpredictable) are PT. Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk 2015 with Z-score of 2, 753 and year 2016 with Z-score 2,858. PT Bank Tabungan Negara in 2015 and 2016 with Z-score of 2,138 and 1,906 and PT. Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk in 2016 which shows the value of Z-score of 2,168.

scholarly journals BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION OF THE COMPANY USING ALTMAN Z–SCORE METHOD FOR THE CONVENTIONAL BANKS REGISTERED IN THE INDONESIA STOCKS EXCHANGE (BEI)

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (02) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Irwansyah .
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Gray Area ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Score Analysis ◽  
Score Method ◽  
Score Model ◽  
Conventional Banks

This study was conducted to prove the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction of Altman Z-Score model on conventional banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The data used in this study is secondary data obtained from the annual financial statements of conventional banks during the period of 2013-2016 mentioned on the official website of the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The data analysis technique used is bankruptcy prediction of Altman Z-Score model, using five variables representing liquidity ratios X1, profitability ratios X2 and X3, and activity ratios X4 and X5. The formula Z-score = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + X5. When Z-Score criteria is Z > 2.90 it is categorized as a healthy company. Z-Score between 1.23 to 2.90 is categorized as a company in area. While Z-Score Z < 1.23 is categorized as a potential bankrupt company. Based on the results of the research, Z-Score analysis that has been done in the period of 2013-2016 indicating that most conventional banks are predicted bankrupt. The lowest score of the Z-Score is 1.23. Only one Bank Jtrust Indonesia Tbk (BCIC bank code) is in a healthy category. Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk with BMRI bank code, has been increasing from the prediction of bankruptcy category to the prediction of gray area category.Keywords: Altman Z-Score, Conventional Banks Listed on BEI 2013-2016, Prediction of Bankruptcy.

scholarly journals Analisis Potensi Kebangkrutan: Perbandingan Model Altman dengan Zavgren

PERSPEKTIF ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 447-452
Author(s):  
Wardayani Wardayani ◽  
Azhar Maksum
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Identification Problem ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Logit Analysis ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Gray Area ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
Score Model ◽  
Analysis Models

This study is aimed to compare two methods to determine the potential for bankruptcy of the company. The method used is the Altman (Z Score) and Zavgren (Logit Analysis) models. The Z Score model is a method to predict the financial difficulties, where the score value on the Altman Z Score classifies whether a company being bankrupt or not. Zavgren developed bankruptcy prediction model with Logit Analysis which divide bankruptcy classifications. The identification problem in this research are the decline in profits occurred from the end of 2016 until 2018, and the mismatch of the increase in profits to the increase the number of assets in the Cosmetics Company, through the use of secondary data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange of companies with code MRAT, KINO, TCID, dan MBTO. Thus, the financial state of cosmetics companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) during the 2016 to2018, according to the Altman Z Score model can be categorized into 2 criteria, they are: Gray Area; MBTO and Sound Area: MRAT, KINO and TCID. Meanwhile, based on the Zavgren model, MRAT, KINO, TCID and MBTO were declared as Sound.

ANALISIS PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ALTMAN Z- SCORE DAN ZMIJEWSKI PADA PERUSAHAAN KOSMETIK YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-33
Author(s):  
Dewi Oktary
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
The Other ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Gray Area ◽  
Score Method ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Score Model

Increasingly intense competition in the cosmetics industry in Indonesia, one of which is the number of artists opening a cosmetics business and besides the entry of many cosmetics brands from abroad which makes existing cosmetic companies must be careful in running their business. This study aims to predict the bankruptcy of cosmetics companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange with the Altman Z-Score model and the Zmijewski model. The sample in this study was cosmetic companies listed on the Main Board of the Indonesia Stock Exchange as many as 4 companies. The data source used is secondary data taking data from the IDX, the type of data used is quantitative data. The result of this research is bankruptcy prediction using the Altman-Z Score method showing that PT. Martino Berto, Tbk for 2016 is included in the Gray Area category while in 2017-2018 it is predicted to go bankrupt while for PT. Mustika Ratu, in 2016 - 2018 entered the Gray Area category while the other two companies namely PT. Mandom Indonesia, Tbk and PT. Unilever, Tbk from 2016 to 2018 is predicted not to go bankrupt. Meanwhile, using the Zmijewski method in cosmetics companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2016-2018 is predicted not to go bankrupt. From the comparison between the Altman Z-Score model and the Zmijewski model, the Zmijewski model has an effectiveness of 100% compared to the Altman Z-Score model which has an effectiveness level of 50%.

scholarly journals Z-Score Application for Jordanian Islamic Banks

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yazan Qasim
Keyword(s):  
Diagnostic Technique ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Grey Zone ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Islamic Bank ◽  
Score Model ◽  
Safe Zones

This research primarily aims to utilise the Altman model of Z-score to examine the trend performance and predict bankruptcy among three Islamic banks in Jordan for the period of 2010-2016. Furthermore, it also aims to introduce the Z-score model as a beneficial diagnostic technique for possible causes standing behind the bank performance crises. The results of the Z-score model showed that the Jordan Dubai Islamic Bank (JDIB), Jordan Islamic Bank for Finance and Investment (JIBFI), and International Islamic Arabic Banks (IIAB) recorded safe zones in the period of study except for JDIB and IIAB which recorded a Grey zone in 2010, 2011, and 2012 and 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively. The implication of this research is important to policymakers, managers, and investors who can use the information to monitor the safest bank among these three Islamic banks in Jordan based on the priority for lending that has to be done in the order of JIBFI, JDIB, and then IIAB. On the other hand, the Z-score was found to be a valid model to examine performance, and ratios utilised in computing the Z-score which was considered to provide workable instrumental indicators as well as being adopted to finance short-term and long-term projects by Jordanian Islamic banks.

scholarly journals Metode Altman Z-Skor Dalam Memprediksi Kepailitan Di Semua Koperasi Kredit Di Kabupaten Maumere

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoseph Darius Purnama Rangga ◽  
Henrikus Herdi ◽  
Wilhelmina Mitan
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Data ◽  
Credit Union ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Financial Health ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Analytical Technique ◽  
Gray Area ◽  
Credit Cooperatives ◽  
Score Model

Abstract Problems that often occur in a cooperative are usually caused by financial problems. To measure the level of financial health cooperatives can be used analysis of financial ratios using the Altman Z-Score model. This research aims to predict bankruptcy in the credit Union of the regional government Puskopdit, Maumere, using the Altman Z-Score model. The samples in this study were credit cooperatives of the main district Puskopdit in 2015-2017 consisting of 16 cooperatives. The data source used is the secondary data in the form of cooperative financial statements. The analytical technique used is the Altman Z-Score Bankruptcy Prediction model. The results showed that there is a cooperative that has been in the healthy category during the year 2015-2017, namely Torch Mas Cooperative, Tuke Jung, Ortal, Plantation, star East, and Serba Te. In the years 2015 and 2016 Kelubagolit cooperatives entered in the category of gray area, but in the year 2017 the cooperative is in a healthy category. In addition, there are cooperatives during the year 2015-2017 in the category of gray area namely Sube Huter Cooperative, Tuke Ler, Hiro Heling, Bina Pertiwi, and Surya Sakti. The cooperatives of San Dominggo in 2015 and 2016 were in the category of bankruptcy, but the following year entered the gray area category. The cooperative in the category of bankruptcy from 2015-2017 is the youth cooperative Hokeng and Ankara. In the year 2015 Plelu Meluk Cooperative entered in the category of gray area, the cooperative's performance continued to decline and in the year 2016 and 2017 the cooperative was entered in the category of bankruptcy. In the years 2018, Hokeng Youth Cooperative experienced an amalgamation with Mitan Gitan Cooperative. This indicates that the accuracy level of the Altman Z-Score model is high..

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