scholarly journals Rainfall Dynamics of Terengganu Malaysia and Its Recent Trends Analysis Using the Mann-Kendall Test.

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 372-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Musa Garba Abdullahi ◽  
Mohd Ekhwan Toriman ◽  
Mohd Barzani Gasim ◽  
Hafizan Juahir
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
The State ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Increasing Trends

This study investigated the pattern and trends of the daily rainfall data in Terengganu Malaysia based on seasonal rainfall indices. The statistics of rainfall indices were calculated in terms of their means for seven stations in Terengganu Malaysia for the period 2000 to 2012. The findings indicate that the trend in the study area has no significant changes in stations (1, 4 and 6) while station (2, 3, 5 and 7) shows significant changes and southwest monsoon had the greatest impact on the whole stations, particularly in characterizing the rainfall pattern of the area. During this season, the study area could be considered as the wettest region since all rainfall indices tested are higher than in other neighboring state of the Peninsula. Otherwise, the northwest of the area is denoted as the driest part of the state during the northeast monsoon period. The northwest of the state is less influenced by the northeast monsoon because of the existence of the Titiwangsa Range, which blocks some part of the region from receiving heavy rainfall. On the other hand, it is found that the areas with lowlands are strongly characterized by the northeast monsoonal flow.The results of the Mann-Kendall test, shows that, trends of the total amount of rainfall during the southwest monsoon decrease at some of the stations. The rainfall intensity increases in contrast, increasing trends in the total amount of rainfall were observed at three stations during the northeast monsoon, which give rise to the increasing trend of rainfall intensity. The results for the combined stations in both seasons indicate that there are no significant changes in trends during the extreme events for the Terengganu Malaysia. However, a smaller number of significant trends were found for extreme intensity. 

scholarly journals Five Decadal Trends in Averages and Extremes of Rainfall and Temperature in Sri Lanka

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Naveendrakumar ◽  
Meththika Vithanage ◽  
Hyun-Han Kwon ◽  
M. C. M. Iqbal ◽  
S. Pathmarajah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Temperature Range ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

In this study, we used a comprehensive set of statistical metrics to investigate the historical trends in averages and extremes of rainfall and temperature in Sri Lanka. The data consist of 55 years (1961–2015) of daily rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) records from 20 stations scattered throughout Sri Lanka. The linear trends were analyzed using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen–Theil regression. The prewhitening method was first used to remove autocorrelation from the time series, and the modified seasonal Mann–Kendall test was then applied for the seasonal data. The results show that, during May, 15% of the stations showed a significant decrease in wet days, which may be due to the delayed southwest monsoon (SWM) to Sri Lanka. A remarkable increase in the annual average temperature of Tmin and Tmax was observed as 70% and 55% of the stations, respectively. For the entire period, 80% of the stations demonstrated statistically significant increases of Tmin during June and July. The daily temperature range (DTR) exhibited a widespread increase at the stations located within the southwestern coast region of Sri Lanka. Although changes in global climate, teleconnections, and local deforestation in recent decades at least partially influence the trends observed in Sri Lanka, a formal trend attribution study should be conducted.

scholarly journals The Wet and Dry Spells across India during 1951–2007

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nityanand Singh ◽  
Ashwini Ranade
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Northwestern India ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Dry Spells

Abstract Characteristics of wet spells (WSs) and intervening dry spells (DSs) are extremely useful for water-related sectors. The information takes on greater significance in the wake of global climate change and climate-change scenario projections. The features of 40 parameters of the rainfall time distribution as well as their extremes have been studied for two wet and dry spells for 19 subregions across India using gridded daily rainfall available on 1° latitude × 1° longitude spatial resolution for the period 1951–2007. In a low-frequency-mode, intra-annual rainfall variation, WS (DS) is identified as a “continuous period with daily rainfall equal to or greater than (less than) daily mean rainfall (DMR) of climatological monsoon period over the area of interest.” The DMR shows significant spatial variation from 2.6 mm day−1 over the extreme southeast peninsula (ESEP) to 20.2 mm day−1 over the southern-central west coast (SCWC). Climatologically, the number of WSs (DSs) decreases from 11 (10) over the extreme south peninsula to 4 (3) over northwestern India as a result of a decrease in tropical and oceanic influences. The total duration of WSs (DSs) decreases from 101 (173) to 45 (29) days, and the duration of individual WS (DS) from 12 (18) to 7 (11) days following similar spatial patterns. Broadly, the total rainfall of wet and dry spells, and rainfall amount and rainfall intensity of actual and extreme wet and dry spells, are high over orographic regions and low over the peninsula, Indo-Gangetic plains, and northwest dry province. The rainfall due to WSs (DSs) contributes ∼68% (∼17%) to the respective annual total. The start of the first wet spell is earlier (19 March) over ESEP and later (22 June) over northwestern India, and the end of the last wet spell occurs in reverse, that is, earlier (12 September) from northwestern India and later (16 December) from ESEP. In recent years/decades, actual and extreme WSs are slightly shorter and their rainfall intensity higher over a majority of the subregions, whereas actual and extreme DSs are slightly (not significantly) longer and their rainfall intensity weaker. There is a tendency for the first WS to start approximately six days earlier across the country and the last WS to end approximately two days earlier, giving rise to longer duration of rainfall activities by approximately four days. However, a spatially coherent, robust, long-term trend (1951–2007) is not seen in any of the 40 WS/DS parameters examined in the present study.

scholarly journals Innovative Trend Analysis of Precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilinuer Alifujiang ◽  
Jilili Abuduwaili ◽  
Balati Maihemuti ◽  
Bilal Emin ◽  
Michael Groll
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Innovative Trend Analysis ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Increasing Trends

The analysis of various characteristics and trends of precipitation is an essential task to improve the utilization of water resources. Lake Issyk-Kul basin is an upper alpine catchment, which is more susceptible to the effects of climate variability, and identifying rainfall variations has vital importance for water resource planning and management in the lake basin. The well-known approaches linear regression, Şen’s slope, Spearman’s rho, and Mann-Kendall trend tests are applied frequently to try to identify trend variations, especially in rainfall, in most literature around the world. Recently, a newly developed method of Şen-innovative trend analysis (ITA) provides some advantages of visual-graphical illustrations and the identification of trends, which is one of the main focuses in this article. This study obtained the monthly precipitation data (between 1951 and 2012) from three meteorological stations (Balykchy, Cholpon-Ata, and Kyzyl-Suu) surrounding the Lake Issyk-Kul, and investigated the trends of precipitation variability by applying the ITA method. For comparison purposes, the traditional Mann–Kendall trend test also used the same time series. The main results of this study include the following. (1) According to the Mann-Kendall trend test, the precipitation of all months at the Balykchy station showed a positive trend (except in January (Zc = −0.784) and July (Zc = 0.079)). At the Cholpon-Ata and Kyzyl-Suu stations, monthly precipitation (with the same month of multiple years averaged) indicated a decreasing trend in January, June, August, and November. At the monthly scale, significant increasing trends (Zc > Z0.10 = 1.645) were detected in February and October for three stations. (2) The ITA method indicated that the rising trends were seen in 16 out of 36 months at the three stations, while six months showed decreasing patterns for “high” monthly precipitation. According to the “low” monthly precipitations, 14 months had an increasing trend, and four months showed a decreasing trend. Through the application of the ITA method (January, March, and August at Balykchy; December at Cholpon-Ata; and July and December at Kyzyl-Suu), there were some significant increasing trends, but the Mann-Kendall test found no significant trends. The significant trend occupies 19.4% in the Mann-Kendall test and 36.1% in the ITA method, which indicates that the ITA method displays more positive significant trends than Mann–Kendall Zc. (3) Compared with the classical Mann-Kendall trend results, the ITA method has some advantages. This approach allows more detailed interpretations about trend detection, which has benefits for identifying hidden variation trends of precipitation and the graphical illustration of the trend variability of extreme events, such as “high” and “low” values of monthly precipitation. In contrast, these cannot be discovered by applying traditional methods.

scholarly journals Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 02048
Author(s):  
Zulkarnain Hassan ◽  
Ahmad Haidir ◽  
Farah Naemah Mohd Saad ◽  
Afizah Ayob ◽  
Mustaqqim Abdul Rahim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Interpolation ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
Distance Weighted ◽  
Inverse Distance

The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015) data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM), as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM). Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

scholarly journals Multi-annual analysis and trends of the temperatures and precipitations in West Anatolia

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 456-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Turgay Partal
Keyword(s):  
Kendall Test ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Pettitt Test ◽  
Frequency Representation ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Scale Levels ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Periodic Components

This study has been carried out to analyze the historical precipitation and temperature data for West Anatolia (Turkey) to understand the annual and multi-annual changes. The wavelet transform technique was used for time–frequency representation of the data. The trends in the data were estimated with the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test. A change point in the time series was determined by the Pettitt test. According to the wavelet analysis, some strong short-term periodical events at the scale levels of 1–4 were determined. The application of the Mann–Kendall test resulted with the identification of some decreasing trends in the observed annual precipitations and also in some periodic components, such as in 32 yearly periodic components. As well, 16 yearly periodic components of the temperature data showed very strong increasing trends at the 5% significance level.

scholarly journals Effect of climate change and deforestation on vector borne diseases in the North-Eastern Indian state of Mizoram bordering Myanmar

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balasubramani Karuppusamy ◽  
Devojit Kumar Sarma ◽  
Pachuau Lalmalsawma ◽  
Lalfakzuala Pautu ◽  
Krishanpal Karmodiya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Vector Borne

Abstract Background Malaria and dengue are the two major vector-borne diseases in Mizoram. Malaria is endemic in Mizoram, and dengue was first reported only in 2012. It is well documented that climate change has a direct influence on the incidence and spread of vector-borne diseases. The study was designed to study the trends and impact of climate variables (temperature, rainfall and humidity) in the monsoon period (May to September) and deforestation on the incidence of dengue and malaria in Mizoram. Methods Temperature, rainfall and humidity data of Mizoram from 1979–2013 were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and analyzed. Forest cover data of Mizoram was extracted from India State of Forest Report (IFSR) and Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Centre. Percent tree cover datasets of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer missions were also used to study the association between deforestation and incidence of vector-borne diseases. The study used non-parametric tests to estimate long-term trends in the climate (temperature, rainfall, humidity) and forest cover variables. The trend and its magnitude are estimated through Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope method. Year-wise dengue and malaria data were obtained from the State Vector Borne Disease Control Program, Mizoram. Results The Mann-Kendall test indicates that compared to maximum temperature, minimum temperature during the monsoon period is increasing (p < 0.001). The Sen’s slope estimation also shows an average annual 0.020C (0.01–0.03 at 95% CI) monotonic increasing trend of minimum temperature. The residuals of Sen’s estimate show that temperature is increasing at an average of about 0.10C/year after 2007.Trends indicate that both rainfall and humidity are increasing (p <. 0.001); on an average, there is a 20.45 mm increase in monsoon rainfall per year (5.90–34.37 at 95% CI), while there is a 0.08% (0.02–0.18 at 95% CI) increase in relative humidity annually. IFSR data shows that there is an annual average decrease of 162 sq.km (272.81–37.53 at 95% CI, p < 0.001) in the dense forest cover. Mizoram in 2012 was the last state in India to report the incidence of dengue. Malaria transmission continues to be stable in Mizoram; compared to 2007, the cases have increased in 2019. Conclusion Over the study period, there is an ~ 0.80C rise in the minimum temperature in the monsoon season which could have facilitated the establishment of Aedes aegypti, the major dengue vector in Mizoram. In addition, the increase in rainfall and humidity may have also helped the biology of Ae. aegypti. Deforestation could be one of the major factors responsible for the consistently high number of malaria cases in Mizoram.

scholarly journals Identification and Validation of Homogeneous Rainfall Zones in India Using Correlation Analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 304-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Saikranthi ◽  
T. Narayana Rao ◽  
M. Rajeevan ◽  
S. Vijaya Bhaskara Rao
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Temporal Scales ◽  
Total Data ◽  
Rainfall Variations ◽  
Homogeneous Regions

Abstract Daily rainfall data obtained from 1025 rain gauges spread across the country over 51 years (1951–2001) are subjected to correlation analysis to identify homogeneous rainfall zones over India. In contrast to earlier studies, which were based on seasonal/annual rainfall, the present study identifies homogeneous rainfall regions with the help of seasonal [southwest monsoon (SWM) and northeast monsoon (NEM)] and annual rainfall. India is divided into 26 (20) homogeneous rainfall zones using annual and SWM (NEM) rainfall. The delineated homogeneous regions are compared and contrasted with those defined by earlier studies, employing a variety of schemes. The interseries correlations of rainfall within each zone are found to be better when the zones are identified by the present study than by other studies. The tests that are performed to evaluate coherency of zones reveal that the zones are homogeneous not only at different temporal scales (interannual and intraseasonal) but also in terms of rain amount, rain frequency, and rain type. Although the delineation of coherent zones is done using interannual/seasonal rainfall data, these zones exhibit coherency in rainfall variations at intraseasonal scale. Nevertheless, the degree of homogeneity is different for rainfall variations occurring at different temporal scales. Further, the zones show better coherency in excess rainfall years than in deficit rainfall years. Longer-term utility of the delineated zones is studied by examining delineated zones and their coherency in the first and second half of the total data period. Although the regions remain the same in both the periods, the coherency is reduced in the second half, suggesting that the homogeneity of regions may vary in the future.

Monsoon-driven Dynamics of water quality by multivariate statistical methods in Daya Bay, South China Sea

2012 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mei-Lin Wu ◽  
You-Shao Wang ◽  
Cui-Ci Sun ◽  
Fu-Lin Sun ◽  
Hao Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Use ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Daya Bay ◽  
Grouped Data ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Multivariate Statistical Methods ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Natural Processes

AbstractEleven physicochemical parameters of data collected from 12 stations in Daya Bay in 2003 were analyzed by multivariate statistical analysis. Cluster analysis (CA) grouped data from 4 seasons into two groups, the northeast and southwest monsoon periods, representing different natural processes. During the northeast monsoon period, principal component analysis (PCA) and CA group the 12 monitoring sites into Cluster DA1 (S1, S2 and S6) and Cluster DA2 (S3-S5 and S7-S12). During the southwest monsoon period, PCA and CA group the 12 monitoring sites into Cluster WB1 (S1, S2, S7, S9 and S11) and Cluster WB2 (S3-S6, S8, S10, S11 and S12). The spatial heterogeneity within the bay was defined by different hydrodynamic conditions and human activities. These results may be valuable for achieving sustainable use of the coastal ecosystems in Daya Bay.

scholarly journals A Comprehensive Evaluation of Near-Real-Time and Research Products of IMERG Precipitation over India for the Southwest Monsoon Period

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 3676
Author(s):  
Satya Prakash ◽  
Jayaraman Srinivasan
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Research Product ◽  
Error Characteristics ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Global Precipitation ◽  
Rainy Days

Precipitation is one of the integral components of the global hydrological cycle. Accurate estimation of precipitation is vital for numerous applications ranging from hydrology to climatology. Following the launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory, the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) precipitation product was released. The IMERG provides global precipitation estimates at finer spatiotemporal resolution (e.g., 0.1°/half-hourly) and has shown to be better than other contemporary multi-satellite precipitation products over most parts of the globe. In this study, near-real-time and research products of IMERG have been extensively evaluated against a daily rain-gauge-based precipitation dataset over India for the southwest monsoon period. In addition, the current version 6 of the IMERG research product or Final Run (IMERG-F V6) has been compared with its predecessor, version 5, and error characteristics of IMERG-F V6 for pre-GPM and GPM periods have been assessed. The spatial distributions of different error metrics over the country show that both near-real-time IMERG products (e.g., Early and Late Runs) have similar error characteristics in precipitation estimation. However, near-real-time products have larger errors than IMERG-F V6, as expected. Bias in all-India daily mean rainfall in the near-real-time IMERG products is about 3–4 times larger than research product. Both V5 and V6 IMERG-F estimates show similar error characteristics in daily precipitation estimation over the country. Similarly, both near-real-time and research products show similar characteristics in the detection of rainy days. However, IMERG-F V6 exhibits better performance in precipitation estimation and detection of rainy days during the GPM period (2014–2017) than the pre-GPM period (2010–2013). The contribution of different rainfall intensity intervals to total monsoon rainfall is captured well by the IMERG estimates. Furthermore, results reveal that IMERG estimates under-detect and overestimate light rainfall intensity of 2.5–7.5 mm day−1, which needs to be improved in the next release. The results of this study would be beneficial for end-users to integrate this multi-satellite product in any specific application.

scholarly journals Occurrence of dry and wet weeks over Maharashtra

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-38
Author(s):  
P. G. GORE ◽  
V. THAPLIYAL
Keyword(s):  
High Probability ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
The State ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Distribution ◽  
The North ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Season

Based on the daily rainfall data of the past 90 years (1901-90), the initial and conditional probabilities of a wet week and the probabilities of 2 and 3 consecutive wet weeks have been computed for all the districts of Maharashtra during the southwest monsoon season by using Markov Chain model. A temporal and spatial distribution of probabilities of wet weeks have been studied in detail. Most of the districts show the highest probability of wet weeks during July. A few number of the districts show the second highest probability during August. The western and northeastern parts of the state show 10-16 wet weeks with high probability. The high rainfall districts along the west coast show high wet week probabilities during most of the period of the season. A few number of the districts from moderate rainfall zone, show high probability of a wet week during, July and August. A persistency in rainfall is noticed in only extreme western parts of the state. The east-west variation along 19° N shows 'L' shaped pattern for the high probability wet weeks. While, the north -south variation of the wet weeks with high probability shows a sinusoidal curve from north to south.

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