Academic Decision Making and Prospect Theory

2011 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 289-300
Author(s):  
Robert R. Mowrer ◽  
William B. Davidson

Two studies are reported that investigate the applicability of prospect theory to college students' academic decision making. Exp. 1 failed to provide support for the risk-seeking portion of the fourfold pattern predicted by prospect theory but did find the greater weighting of losses over gains. Using a more sensitive dependent measure, in Exp. 2 the results of the first experiment were replicated in terms of the gain-loss effect and also found some support for the fourfold pattern in the interaction between probabilities and gain versus loss. The greatest risk-seeking was found in the high probability loss condition.

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lili Tan ◽  
Siyuan Li ◽  
Xiaomin Zhang

Prospect theory predicts a four-fold risk attitude, which means that people are risk seeking for low-probability gain and high-probability loss and risk averse for low-probability loss and high-probability gain because they overweight probability when it is low. The four-fold pattern of risk attitude has been supported by several former studies with mainstream industrialized populations but has never previously been tested in a non-industrialized society. In this work, we examined the robustness of the four-fold risk attitude in the DuLong minority ethnicity in China, which is a small society with only 4,000 members that is isolated from modern civilization. We used simple lotteries for gain and loss with different probabilities to elicit the risk attitude of 37 DuLong villagers. Our results support prospect theory predictions in that DuLong people are risk seeking for low-probability gain and risk averse for low-probability loss. However, although they showed a tendency to decrease their degree of risk seeking (risk aversion) for gain (loss), their risk attitude did not reverse when the probability of the prospect increased to 50%. In summary, our results suggest a right-shifted weighting function in this non-industrialized small society. The deviation might be caused by the particular living situation of the DuLong people, their sensitivity to monetary payoffs, and the elicitation procedure.


2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 160-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satakhun Kosavinta ◽  
Donyaprueth Krairit ◽  
Do Ba Khang

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the rationality of the decision making of residential developers in Thailand. Exploring its implications in the residential development field, the researchers propose the famous prospect theory as the primary cause of developers’ incompetent decisions during the pre-development stage of residential development. Design/methodology/approach The methodologies used in this research include literature review, expert interview, and experimental questionnaire. Findings The results show that Thai developers exhibit all five aspects of prospect theory: loss aversion, fourfold pattern, bias from rare events, mental accounting, and preference reversals (PR); however, in contrast to previous literature, the researchers found that Thai developers always choose to receive gains, and usually make risky choices to avoid losses, even if the risk of loss is low. Moreover, status quo bias has a low influence on Thai developers: they tend to become attached to the areas they develop, but remain flexible in selecting a project type that fits the land. In addition, PR and the framing effect affect only some groups of developers. Practical implications This research provides awareness to professionals in the residential development field to make sound judgements, using Thailand as a case study. Originality/value This paper reveals the existence of the unproven prospect theory in the residential development field using an empirical study in Thailand as a case study.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Rana Asgarova

<p>Prospect Theory models behaviour in one-off decisions where outcomes are described. Prospect Theory describes risk aversion when the choice is between gains and risk seeking when the choice is between losses. This asymmetry is known as the reflection effect. In choices about experienced outcomes, individuals show risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses. This change in the direction of gain-loss asymmetry is known as the description-experience gap. Across eight experiments, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in two experiential choice procedures. We compared the obtained results with predictions derived from Prospect Theory and the description-experience gap literature.  In Study 1, we evaluated the predictions of the reversed reflection effect in probability discounting. Probability discounting is loss in reinforcer value as a function of uncertainty. In typical tasks measuring discounting, participants choose between smaller, certain amounts and a larger amount at one of several probabilities. In choice from description, most participants show a gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of the reflection effect, discounting gains more steeply than losses. Across three experiments, we examined whether gain-loss asymmetry also occurred when participants experienced the outcomes they chose, when they chose between two uncertain options, and when these two contexts were combined. Across all of the above contexts, no consistent mean difference in discounting of gains and losses was observed. Rather, in most of the tasks that provided experienced outcomes, the participants showed steeper discounting in the first condition completed, whether it involved choices about gains or losses. Furthermore, subsequent conditions produced shallower discounting, but notably, not shallower than choice based on the expected value of the options. In Studies 2 and 3, we followed-up on this order effect by providing the participants with experience of probabilistic outcomes before the discounting tasks. Participants discounted losses more steeply than gains, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect.  In Study 2, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in a rapid-acquisition choice procedure using concurrent variable-interval schedules – the Auckland Card Task. Participants repeatedly chose between two decks of cards that varied in the frequency or magnitude of available gains or losses. Participants were more sensitive to changes in gain than loss frequency between the two decks, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect, while sensitivity to gain and loss magnitude did not show an asymmetry. We found a novel asymmetry in the local effects of gains and losses. In the frequency tasks, gains disrupted the general pattern of responding more than losses. In the magnitude tasks, varying the magnitude of losses had a bigger effect on local-level patterns following outcomes than varying the magnitude of gains.  Across the two tasks we observed patterns of gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect. We also observed several inconsistencies, particularly when comparing behaviour to choices that would maximize the expected returns. Our research suggested that sufficient exposure to chance outcomes and ensuring delivery of scheduled events are key challenges in further refinement of experiential choice in human operant tasks.</p>


2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (04) ◽  
pp. 711-727 ◽  
Author(s):  
ZHI-PING FAN ◽  
XIAO ZHANG ◽  
YAN-RU ZHAO ◽  
FA-DONG CHEN

In this paper, a method based on prospect theory is proposed to solve the multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problem with three formats of attribute aspirations. According to the idea of prospect theory, reference points concerning attributes are first determined. Then, for the three formats of attribute aspirations, the calculation formulae of alternatives' gains/losses concerning attributes are given. By calculating each alternative's gain/loss, a gain–loss matrix is constructed. Further, using the value function from prospect theory and the simple additive weighting method, the overall prospect value of each alternative is calculated. Based on the obtained overall prospect values, a ranking of alternatives can be determined. Finally, a case study is given to illustrate the use of the proposed method.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quan Yang ◽  
Xianmin Gong ◽  
Jinli Xiong ◽  
Shufei Yin

People often feel that a period of time becomes longer when it is described in more detail or cut into more segments, which is known as the time unpacking effect. The current study aims to unveil how time unpacking manipulation impacts intertemporal decision making and whether the gain-loss valence of choices moderates such impacts. We recruited 87 college students (54 female) and randomly assigned them to the experimental conditions to complete a series of intertemporal choice tasks. The subjective values of the delayed choices were calculated for each participant and then analyzed. The results showed that participants perceived longer time delays and higher subjective values on the delayed gains (but not losses) in the time unpacking conditions than in the time packing conditions. These results suggest that time unpacking manipulation not only impacts time perception but also other factors, which in turn, influence the valuation of delayed outcomes and thereby intertemporal choices. The results are discussed in comparison to previous studies to highlight the complexity of the mechanism underlying the effect of time unpacking on intertemporal decision making.


Author(s):  
Timothy R. Koski ◽  
Craig R. Ehlen

According to prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky 1979), decision makers perceive outcomes as gains or losses from a reference point and behave differently depending on how the outcome is framed. Decision makers will be risk-averse if the perceived outcome is viewed as a gain and risk-seeking if it is perceived as a loss. Research applying prospect theory to the decision-making of tax preparers by using their clients year-end payment status as the reference point has not been successful (see e.g., Duncan et al. 1988; Sanders and Wyndelts 1989; LaRue and Reckers 1989). One possible explanation for the lack of consistent results in this area is that tax preparers do not internalize the framing of their clients payment status and thus do not have a psychological commitment to the decision outcome. It is the client who is in a gain or loss position, not the tax preparer.This paper reports the results of an experiment applying prospect theory and psychological commitment to tax preparer decision-making. We hypothesized that tax preparers personal involvement in placing their client in a particular year-end tax situation (payment due or refund) will cause them to use the clients year-end payment status as the reference point and to behave in a manner consistent with the predictions of prospect theory. In particular, we hypothesized that personal involvement in placing their client in a year-end payment due situation will cause tax preparers to frame the decision as a loss and thus behave in a risk-seeking manner. We also hypothesized that personal involvement in placing their client in a year-end refund situation will cause tax preparers to frame the decision as a gain and engage in more risk-averse behavior than tax preparers not so involved.Using a sample of 104 professional tax return preparers, we found no evidence that psychological commitment to their clients year-end payment status caused tax preparers to behave in a manner consistent with prospect theory. We did, however, find evidence that more experienced tax preparers took more aggressive tax-reporting positions than those with less experience. We also found that males took more aggressive tax-reporting positions than females.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Rana Asgarova

<p>Prospect Theory models behaviour in one-off decisions where outcomes are described. Prospect Theory describes risk aversion when the choice is between gains and risk seeking when the choice is between losses. This asymmetry is known as the reflection effect. In choices about experienced outcomes, individuals show risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses. This change in the direction of gain-loss asymmetry is known as the description-experience gap. Across eight experiments, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in two experiential choice procedures. We compared the obtained results with predictions derived from Prospect Theory and the description-experience gap literature.  In Study 1, we evaluated the predictions of the reversed reflection effect in probability discounting. Probability discounting is loss in reinforcer value as a function of uncertainty. In typical tasks measuring discounting, participants choose between smaller, certain amounts and a larger amount at one of several probabilities. In choice from description, most participants show a gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of the reflection effect, discounting gains more steeply than losses. Across three experiments, we examined whether gain-loss asymmetry also occurred when participants experienced the outcomes they chose, when they chose between two uncertain options, and when these two contexts were combined. Across all of the above contexts, no consistent mean difference in discounting of gains and losses was observed. Rather, in most of the tasks that provided experienced outcomes, the participants showed steeper discounting in the first condition completed, whether it involved choices about gains or losses. Furthermore, subsequent conditions produced shallower discounting, but notably, not shallower than choice based on the expected value of the options. In Studies 2 and 3, we followed-up on this order effect by providing the participants with experience of probabilistic outcomes before the discounting tasks. Participants discounted losses more steeply than gains, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect.  In Study 2, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in a rapid-acquisition choice procedure using concurrent variable-interval schedules – the Auckland Card Task. Participants repeatedly chose between two decks of cards that varied in the frequency or magnitude of available gains or losses. Participants were more sensitive to changes in gain than loss frequency between the two decks, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect, while sensitivity to gain and loss magnitude did not show an asymmetry. We found a novel asymmetry in the local effects of gains and losses. In the frequency tasks, gains disrupted the general pattern of responding more than losses. In the magnitude tasks, varying the magnitude of losses had a bigger effect on local-level patterns following outcomes than varying the magnitude of gains.  Across the two tasks we observed patterns of gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect. We also observed several inconsistencies, particularly when comparing behaviour to choices that would maximize the expected returns. Our research suggested that sufficient exposure to chance outcomes and ensuring delivery of scheduled events are key challenges in further refinement of experiential choice in human operant tasks.</p>


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