scholarly journals Risk Attitude in the DuLong Minority Ethnicity of China

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lili Tan ◽  
Siyuan Li ◽  
Xiaomin Zhang

Prospect theory predicts a four-fold risk attitude, which means that people are risk seeking for low-probability gain and high-probability loss and risk averse for low-probability loss and high-probability gain because they overweight probability when it is low. The four-fold pattern of risk attitude has been supported by several former studies with mainstream industrialized populations but has never previously been tested in a non-industrialized society. In this work, we examined the robustness of the four-fold risk attitude in the DuLong minority ethnicity in China, which is a small society with only 4,000 members that is isolated from modern civilization. We used simple lotteries for gain and loss with different probabilities to elicit the risk attitude of 37 DuLong villagers. Our results support prospect theory predictions in that DuLong people are risk seeking for low-probability gain and risk averse for low-probability loss. However, although they showed a tendency to decrease their degree of risk seeking (risk aversion) for gain (loss), their risk attitude did not reverse when the probability of the prospect increased to 50%. In summary, our results suggest a right-shifted weighting function in this non-industrialized small society. The deviation might be caused by the particular living situation of the DuLong people, their sensitivity to monetary payoffs, and the elicitation procedure.

2011 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 289-300
Author(s):  
Robert R. Mowrer ◽  
William B. Davidson

Two studies are reported that investigate the applicability of prospect theory to college students' academic decision making. Exp. 1 failed to provide support for the risk-seeking portion of the fourfold pattern predicted by prospect theory but did find the greater weighting of losses over gains. Using a more sensitive dependent measure, in Exp. 2 the results of the first experiment were replicated in terms of the gain-loss effect and also found some support for the fourfold pattern in the interaction between probabilities and gain versus loss. The greatest risk-seeking was found in the high probability loss condition.


2003 ◽  
Vol 93 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1077-1079 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Mancini ◽  
Amelia Gangemi

We hypothesize that individuals' choices (risk-seeking/risk-aversion) depend on moral values and, in particular, on how subjects evaluate themselves as guilty or as victims of a wrong rather than on the descriptions of the outcomes as given in the options and evaluated accordingly as gains or losses (framing effect). People who evaluate themselves as victims are expected to show a risk-seeking preference (context of innocence). People who evaluate themselves as guilty are expected to show a risk-averse preference (context of guilt). Responses of 232 participants to a decision problem were compared in four different conditions involving two-story formats (innocence/guilt) and two-question-options formats (gain/loss). Regardless of the format of the question options, the story format appears to be an important determinant of individuals' preferences.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 6706
Author(s):  
Qinghui Xu ◽  
Xiangfeng Ji

This paper studies travelers’ context-dependent route choice behavior in a risky trafficnetwork from a long-term perspective, focusing on the effect of travelers’ salience characteristics. In particular, a flow-dependent salience theory is proposed for this analysis, where the flow denotes the traffic flow on the risky route. In the proposed model, travelers’ attention is drawn to the salient travel utility, and the objective probabilities of the state of the world are replaced by the decision weights distorted in favor of this salient travel utility. A long-run user equilibrium will be achieved when no traveler can improve his or her salient travel utility by unilaterally changing routes, termed salient user equilibrium, which extends the scope of the Wardropian user equilibrium. Furthermore, we prove the existence and uniqueness of this salient user equilibrium. Finally, numerical studies demonstrate our theoretical findings. The equilibrium results show non-intuitive insights into travelers’ route choice behavior. (1) Travelers can be risk-seeking (the travel utility of a risky route is small with a relatively high probability), risk-neutral (in special situations), or risk-averse (the travel utility of a risky route is large with a relatively high probability), which depends on the salient state. (2) The extent of travelers’ risk-seeking or risk-averse behavior depends on their extent of salience bias, while the risk-neutral behavior is irrelative to this salience bias.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
You-Ping Yang ◽  
Xinjian Li ◽  
Veit Stuphorn

AbstractIn humans, risk attitude is highly context-dependent, varying with wealth levels or for different potential outcomes, such as gains or losses. These behavioral effects are well described by Prospect Theory, with the key assumption that humans represent the value of each available option asymmetrically as gain or loss relative to a reference point. However, it remains unknown how these computations are implemented at the neuronal level. Using a new token gambling task, we found that macaques, like humans, change their risk attitude across wealth levels and gain/loss contexts. Neurons in their anterior insular cortex (AIC) encode the ‘reference point’ (i.e. the current wealth level of the monkey) and the ‘asymmetric value function’ (i.e. option value signals are more sensitive to change in the loss than in the gain context) as postulated by Prospect Theory. In addition, changes in the activity of a subgroup of AIC neurons are correlated with the inter-trial fluctuations in choice and risk attitude. Taken together, we find that the role of primate AIC in risky decision-making is to monitor contextual information used to guide the animal’s willingness to accept risk.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Rana Asgarova

<p>Prospect Theory models behaviour in one-off decisions where outcomes are described. Prospect Theory describes risk aversion when the choice is between gains and risk seeking when the choice is between losses. This asymmetry is known as the reflection effect. In choices about experienced outcomes, individuals show risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses. This change in the direction of gain-loss asymmetry is known as the description-experience gap. Across eight experiments, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in two experiential choice procedures. We compared the obtained results with predictions derived from Prospect Theory and the description-experience gap literature.  In Study 1, we evaluated the predictions of the reversed reflection effect in probability discounting. Probability discounting is loss in reinforcer value as a function of uncertainty. In typical tasks measuring discounting, participants choose between smaller, certain amounts and a larger amount at one of several probabilities. In choice from description, most participants show a gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of the reflection effect, discounting gains more steeply than losses. Across three experiments, we examined whether gain-loss asymmetry also occurred when participants experienced the outcomes they chose, when they chose between two uncertain options, and when these two contexts were combined. Across all of the above contexts, no consistent mean difference in discounting of gains and losses was observed. Rather, in most of the tasks that provided experienced outcomes, the participants showed steeper discounting in the first condition completed, whether it involved choices about gains or losses. Furthermore, subsequent conditions produced shallower discounting, but notably, not shallower than choice based on the expected value of the options. In Studies 2 and 3, we followed-up on this order effect by providing the participants with experience of probabilistic outcomes before the discounting tasks. Participants discounted losses more steeply than gains, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect.  In Study 2, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in a rapid-acquisition choice procedure using concurrent variable-interval schedules – the Auckland Card Task. Participants repeatedly chose between two decks of cards that varied in the frequency or magnitude of available gains or losses. Participants were more sensitive to changes in gain than loss frequency between the two decks, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect, while sensitivity to gain and loss magnitude did not show an asymmetry. We found a novel asymmetry in the local effects of gains and losses. In the frequency tasks, gains disrupted the general pattern of responding more than losses. In the magnitude tasks, varying the magnitude of losses had a bigger effect on local-level patterns following outcomes than varying the magnitude of gains.  Across the two tasks we observed patterns of gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect. We also observed several inconsistencies, particularly when comparing behaviour to choices that would maximize the expected returns. Our research suggested that sufficient exposure to chance outcomes and ensuring delivery of scheduled events are key challenges in further refinement of experiential choice in human operant tasks.</p>


2004 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob M. Rose ◽  
Anna M. Rose ◽  
Carolyn Strand Norman

This research proposes that the risk preferences of decision evaluators and the decision “domain” systematically influence evaluations of decision makers' information technology (IT) investment decisions. Results of an experiment with 160 M.B.A. student participants indicate that risk-seeking evaluators rate IT investment decisions higher than do risk-averse evaluators. Further, decision evaluators are influenced by the gain and loss decision domains when evaluating a decision maker's risky information technology investment decisions. The findings indicate that providing decision domain information to decision evaluators leads to systematic differences in IT investment evaluations. A key contribution of this study is the discovery of the relevance of prospect theory to IT evaluation processes.


Author(s):  
Timothy R. Koski ◽  
Craig R. Ehlen

According to prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky 1979), decision makers perceive outcomes as gains or losses from a reference point and behave differently depending on how the outcome is framed. Decision makers will be risk-averse if the perceived outcome is viewed as a gain and risk-seeking if it is perceived as a loss. Research applying prospect theory to the decision-making of tax preparers by using their clients year-end payment status as the reference point has not been successful (see e.g., Duncan et al. 1988; Sanders and Wyndelts 1989; LaRue and Reckers 1989). One possible explanation for the lack of consistent results in this area is that tax preparers do not internalize the framing of their clients payment status and thus do not have a psychological commitment to the decision outcome. It is the client who is in a gain or loss position, not the tax preparer.This paper reports the results of an experiment applying prospect theory and psychological commitment to tax preparer decision-making. We hypothesized that tax preparers personal involvement in placing their client in a particular year-end tax situation (payment due or refund) will cause them to use the clients year-end payment status as the reference point and to behave in a manner consistent with the predictions of prospect theory. In particular, we hypothesized that personal involvement in placing their client in a year-end payment due situation will cause tax preparers to frame the decision as a loss and thus behave in a risk-seeking manner. We also hypothesized that personal involvement in placing their client in a year-end refund situation will cause tax preparers to frame the decision as a gain and engage in more risk-averse behavior than tax preparers not so involved.Using a sample of 104 professional tax return preparers, we found no evidence that psychological commitment to their clients year-end payment status caused tax preparers to behave in a manner consistent with prospect theory. We did, however, find evidence that more experienced tax preparers took more aggressive tax-reporting positions than those with less experience. We also found that males took more aggressive tax-reporting positions than females.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Rana Asgarova

<p>Prospect Theory models behaviour in one-off decisions where outcomes are described. Prospect Theory describes risk aversion when the choice is between gains and risk seeking when the choice is between losses. This asymmetry is known as the reflection effect. In choices about experienced outcomes, individuals show risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses. This change in the direction of gain-loss asymmetry is known as the description-experience gap. Across eight experiments, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in two experiential choice procedures. We compared the obtained results with predictions derived from Prospect Theory and the description-experience gap literature.  In Study 1, we evaluated the predictions of the reversed reflection effect in probability discounting. Probability discounting is loss in reinforcer value as a function of uncertainty. In typical tasks measuring discounting, participants choose between smaller, certain amounts and a larger amount at one of several probabilities. In choice from description, most participants show a gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of the reflection effect, discounting gains more steeply than losses. Across three experiments, we examined whether gain-loss asymmetry also occurred when participants experienced the outcomes they chose, when they chose between two uncertain options, and when these two contexts were combined. Across all of the above contexts, no consistent mean difference in discounting of gains and losses was observed. Rather, in most of the tasks that provided experienced outcomes, the participants showed steeper discounting in the first condition completed, whether it involved choices about gains or losses. Furthermore, subsequent conditions produced shallower discounting, but notably, not shallower than choice based on the expected value of the options. In Studies 2 and 3, we followed-up on this order effect by providing the participants with experience of probabilistic outcomes before the discounting tasks. Participants discounted losses more steeply than gains, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect.  In Study 2, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in a rapid-acquisition choice procedure using concurrent variable-interval schedules – the Auckland Card Task. Participants repeatedly chose between two decks of cards that varied in the frequency or magnitude of available gains or losses. Participants were more sensitive to changes in gain than loss frequency between the two decks, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect, while sensitivity to gain and loss magnitude did not show an asymmetry. We found a novel asymmetry in the local effects of gains and losses. In the frequency tasks, gains disrupted the general pattern of responding more than losses. In the magnitude tasks, varying the magnitude of losses had a bigger effect on local-level patterns following outcomes than varying the magnitude of gains.  Across the two tasks we observed patterns of gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect. We also observed several inconsistencies, particularly when comparing behaviour to choices that would maximize the expected returns. Our research suggested that sufficient exposure to chance outcomes and ensuring delivery of scheduled events are key challenges in further refinement of experiential choice in human operant tasks.</p>


2016 ◽  
pp. 59-70
Author(s):  
Ninh Le Khuong ◽  
Nghiem Le Tan ◽  
Tho Huynh Huu

This paper aims to detect the impact of firm managers’ risk attitude on the relationship between the degree of output market uncertainty and firm investment. The findings show that there is a negative relationship between these two aspects for risk-averse managers while there is a positive relationship for risk-loving ones, since they have different utility functions. Based on the findings, this paper proposes recommendations for firm managers to take into account when making investment decisions and long-term business strategies as well.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Failing ◽  
Benchi Wang ◽  
Jan Theeuwes

Where and what we attend to is not only determined by what we are currently looking for but also by what we have encountered in the past. Recent studies suggest that biasing the probability by which distractors appear at locations in visual space may lead to attentional suppression of high probability distractor locations which effectively reduces capture by a distractor but also impairs target selection at this location. However, in many of these studies introducing a high probability distractor location was tantamount to increasing the probability of the target appearing in any of the other locations (i.e. the low probability distractor locations). Here, we investigate an alternative interpretation of previous findings according to which attentional selection at high probability distractor locations is not suppressed. Instead, selection at low probability distractor locations is facilitated. In two visual search tasks, we found no evidence for this hypothesis: neither when there was only a bias in target presentation but no bias in distractor presentation (Experiment 1), nor when there was only a bias in distractor presentation but no bias in target presentation (Experiment 2). We conclude that recurrent presentation of a distractor in a specific location leads to attentional suppression of that location through a mechanism that is unaffected by any regularities regarding the target location.


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