Predicting the Suicide Rate of Children in America

1999 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 212-212
Author(s):  
David Lester

The time-series regressions for suicide rates by race and sex for those aged 5 to 14 years in the USA from 1933–1980 were predicted by scores on two factors which had high loadings for year and for the marriage rate.

1992 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 778-778
Author(s):  
David Lester

Divorce rates were significantly associated with crude suicide rates in a time-series study of the USA from 1950–1985 but not with age-adjusted suicide rates.


Crisis ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 186-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y.E. Razvodovsky

Background: The high suicide rate in Russia and its profound fluctuation over the past decades have attracted considerable interest. There is growing evidence that beverage preference and binge-drinking patterns, i.e., excessive consumption of strong spirits, results in a quicker and deeper level of intoxication, which increases the propensity for the alcohol-related suicide. In line with this evidence, we assumed that higher levels of vodka consumption, in conjunction with binge-drinking patterns, would result in a close, aggregate-level association between vodka sales and suicide in Russia. Aims and Methods: To test this hypothesis, trends in beverage-specific alcohol sales per capita and suicide rates from 1970 to 2005 in Russia were analyzed employing ARIMA time-series analysis. Results: The results of the time-series analysis suggested that a 1 liter increase in overall alcohol sales would result in a 4% increase in the male suicide rate and a 2.8% increase in the female suicide rate; a 1 liter increase in vodka sales would increase the suicide rate by 9.3% for men and by 6% for women. Conclusions: This study replicates previous findings from other settings, which suggest that suicide rates tend to be more responsive to changes in distilled spirits consumption per capita than to the total level of alcohol consumption. Assuming that drinking spirits is usually associated with intoxication episodes, these findings provide additional evidence that the drinking pattern is an important determinant in the relationship between alcohol and suicide. The outcomes of this study also provide support for the hypothesis that suicide and alcohol are closely connected in cultures where an intoxication-oriented drinking pattern prevails and adds to the growing body of evidence that alcohol plays a crucial role in the fluctuation in suicide mortality rates in Russia during recent decades.


1997 ◽  
Vol 85 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1242-1242 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lester

The suicide rate and the death rate for undetermined causes were negatively associated over time from 1968 to 1990 in the USA, suggesting that these undetermined deaths may include a fair proportion of suicides. In contrast, there was no association between suicide and undetermined death rates over the states in 1980.


1998 ◽  
Vol 86 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-126
Author(s):  
David Lester

For France from 1950 to 1985, divorce, marriage and birth rates predicted the crude and the age-adjusted male and female suicide rates identically.


1991 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lester ◽  
Peter S Curran ◽  
Bijou Yang

A time series analysis of suicide in Northen Ireland and the USA for 1960 to 1984 revealed different correlates. Whereas divorce rates predicted national suicide rates in the USA, birth and marriage rates predicted suicide rates in Northern Ireland.The major sociological theory proposed for understanding variations in national suicide rates was that of Durkheim. Durkheim proposed that two broad social characteristics were in large part responsible for the appearance of suicidal behaviour: social integration, the degree to which the people in a society were interconnected through social relationships, and social regulation, the degree to which the emotions and desires of people in the society were controlled and channeled by the social norms and customs.Durkheim argued that suicide would be common when social integration was very strong (altruistic suicide) or very weak (egoistic suicide) and when social regulation was very strong (fatalistic suicide) or very weak (anomic suicide). Later theorists have argued that Durkheim placed more emphasis than was warranted on very strong social integration and regulation. Johnson argued, for example, that suicide would be more common when social integration and regulation were weak.


1998 ◽  
Vol 83 (3) ◽  
pp. 881-882
Author(s):  
David Lester

Measures of domestic social integration which have been found to account for the time-series suicide rate in Hungary quite well also accounted for the time-series suicide rates of each province and for villages, towns, and cities.


1997 ◽  
Vol 81 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1082-1082 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lester

In time-series regressions, remarriage and divorce rates for the USA from 1933–1935 to 1969–1971 predicted suicide rates while first marriage, remarriage, and divorce rates predicted homicide rates.


2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan A. Robertson ◽  
Corbin J. Standley ◽  
John F. Gunn III ◽  
Ijeoma Opara

Purpose Death by suicide among Black people in the USA have increased by 35.6% within the past decade. Among youth under the age of 24 years old, death by suicide among Black youth have risen substantially. Researchers have found that structural inequities (e.g. educational attainment) and state-specific variables (e.g. minimum wage, incarceration rates) may increase risk for suicide among Black people compared to White people in the USA. Given the limited understanding of how such factors systematically affect Black and White communities differently, this paper aims to examine these relationships across US states using publicly available data from 2015 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach Data were aggregated from various national sources including the National Center for Education Statistics, the Department of Labor, the FBI’s Crime in the US Reports and the Census Bureau. Four generalized estimating equations (GEE) models were used to examine the impact of state-level variables on suicide rates: Black adults suicide rate, Black youth (24 years and younger) suicide rate, White adult suicide rate and White youth suicide rate. Each model includes state-level hate group rates, minimum wage, violent crime rates, gross vacancy rates, and race-specific state-level poverty rates, incarceration rates and graduation rates. Findings Across all GEE models, suicide rates rose between 2015–2019 (ß = 1.11 – 2.78; ß = 0.91 – 1.82; ß = 0.52 – 3.09; ß = 0.16 – 1.53). For the Black adult suicide rate, state rates increased as the proportion of Black incarceration rose (ß = 1.14) but fell as the gross housing vacancy rates increased (ß = −1.52). Among Black youth, state suicide rates rose as Black incarcerations increased (ß = 0.93). For the adult White suicide rate, state rates increased as White incarceration (ß = 1.05) and percent uninsured increased (ß = 1.83), but fell as White graduation rates increased (ß = −2.36). Finally, among White youth, state suicide rates increased as the White incarceration rate rose (ß = 0.55) and as the violent crime rate rose (ß = 0.55) but decreased as state minimum wages (ß = −0.61), White poverty rates (ß = −0.40) and graduation rates increased (ß = −0.97). Originality/value This work underscores how structural factors are associated with suicide rates, and how such factors differentially impact White and Black communities.


2002 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lester ◽  
Yukio Saito

In a time series study of suicide rates in Japan from 1978–1997, it was found that the social indicators which predict the suicide rates differ for suicides committed for interpersonal, work-related, and health concerns. While measures of domestic social integration predicted the suicide rate for interpersonal reasons, unemployment, and divorce rates predicted the suicide rate for work-related reasons.


1992 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 310-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lester ◽  
Yutaka Motohashi

Using data from Motohashi, differences in results of time-series analyses of crude and age-adjusted suicide rates in Japan were observed.


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