Effect of Using Age-Adjusted Suicide Rates on the Results of Time-Series Analyses of the Suicide Rate

Australia has a moderate overall suicide rate but an extremely high male firearm suicide rate. Using data covering the years 1961–1985, a series of multiple regression based analyses were performed. During this period, overall suicide rates fell but firearm suicides remained constant with a resulting increase in the proportion of suicides by firearms. There has been an increase in suicides in the young offset by a decline in the elderly. Young males showed the greatest proportional increase in the use of firearms. A limited regional analysis supported the hypothesis that lack of legislative restrictions on long guns in Queensland with a greater household prevalence of such weapons and different cultural attitudes were associated with higher overall and firearm suicide rates. Such findings are consistent with reports from North America, although trends in Australia are more modest. Reducing the availability and cultural acceptance of firearms is likely to decrease suicide rates, especially in males.

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Beverage-Specific Alcohol Sale and Suicide in Russia

Crisis ◽

10.1027/0227-5910.30.4.186 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 30 (4) ◽

pp. 186-191 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Y.E. Razvodovsky

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Binge Drinking ◽

Suicide Rate ◽

Drinking Pattern ◽

Drinking Patterns ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

Per Capita ◽

Alcohol Sales

Background: The high suicide rate in Russia and its profound fluctuation over the past decades have attracted considerable interest. There is growing evidence that beverage preference and binge-drinking patterns, i.e., excessive consumption of strong spirits, results in a quicker and deeper level of intoxication, which increases the propensity for the alcohol-related suicide. In line with this evidence, we assumed that higher levels of vodka consumption, in conjunction with binge-drinking patterns, would result in a close, aggregate-level association between vodka sales and suicide in Russia. Aims and Methods: To test this hypothesis, trends in beverage-specific alcohol sales per capita and suicide rates from 1970 to 2005 in Russia were analyzed employing ARIMA time-series analysis. Results: The results of the time-series analysis suggested that a 1 liter increase in overall alcohol sales would result in a 4% increase in the male suicide rate and a 2.8% increase in the female suicide rate; a 1 liter increase in vodka sales would increase the suicide rate by 9.3% for men and by 6% for women. Conclusions: This study replicates previous findings from other settings, which suggest that suicide rates tend to be more responsive to changes in distilled spirits consumption per capita than to the total level of alcohol consumption. Assuming that drinking spirits is usually associated with intoxication episodes, these findings provide additional evidence that the drinking pattern is an important determinant in the relationship between alcohol and suicide. The outcomes of this study also provide support for the hypothesis that suicide and alcohol are closely connected in cultures where an intoxication-oriented drinking pattern prevails and adds to the growing body of evidence that alcohol plays a crucial role in the fluctuation in suicide mortality rates in Russia during recent decades.

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Time-Series Studies of the French Suicide Rate Using Age-Adjusted Rates

Perceptual and Motor Skills ◽

10.2466/pms.1998.86.1.126 ◽

1998 ◽

Vol 86 (1) ◽

pp. 126-126

Author(s):

David Lester

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Suicide Rate ◽

Birth Rates ◽

Male And Female ◽

Female Suicide ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

Time Series Studies ◽

Age Adjusted Rates

For France from 1950 to 1985, divorce, marriage and birth rates predicted the crude and the age-adjusted male and female suicide rates identically.

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Testing Durkheim's Theory of Suicide in Hungary

Psychological Reports ◽

10.2466/pr0.1998.83.3.881 ◽

1998 ◽

Vol 83 (3) ◽

pp. 881-882

Author(s):

David Lester

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Social Integration ◽

Suicide Rate ◽

Suicide Rates

Measures of domestic social integration which have been found to account for the time-series suicide rate in Hungary quite well also accounted for the time-series suicide rates of each province and for villages, towns, and cities.

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Time-Series Analyses of the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law Implementation and Subsequent Modifications on Rates of Sexual Offenses

Crime & Delinquency ◽

10.1177/0011128717722010 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 65 (11) ◽

pp. 1483-1512 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Jeff A. Bouffard ◽

LaQuana N. Askew

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Sex Offender ◽

Sexual Offending ◽

Public Awareness ◽

Future Research ◽

Sex Offender Registration ◽

Sexual Offenses ◽

Time Series Analyses ◽

Using Data ◽

The Impact

Sex offender registration and notification (SORN) laws were implemented to protect communities by increasing public awareness, and these laws have expanded over time to include registration by more types of offenders. Despite widespread implementation, research provides only inconsistent support for the impact of SORN laws on incidence of sexual offending. Using data from a large metropolitan area in Texas over the time period 1977 to 2012, and employing a number of time-series analyses, we examine the impact of the initial SORN implementation and two enhancements to the law. Results reveal no effect of SORN, or its subsequent modifications, on all sexual offenses or any of several specific offenses measures (e.g., crimes by repeat offenders). Implications for effective policy and future research are presented.

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Predicting the Suicide Rate of Children in America

Psychological Reports ◽

10.2466/pr0.1999.85.1.212 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 85 (1) ◽

pp. 212-212

Author(s):

David Lester

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Suicide Rate ◽

Marriage Rate ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

Two Factors ◽

The Usa

The time-series regressions for suicide rates by race and sex for those aged 5 to 14 years in the USA from 1933–1980 were predicted by scores on two factors which had high loadings for year and for the marriage rate.

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Gun Violence Restraining Order Laws and Firearm Suicide among Older Adults: A Longitudinal State-Level Analysis

10.21203/rs.2.16016/v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Altaf Saadi ◽

Kristen R Choi ◽

Sae Takada ◽

Fred J. Zimmerman

Keyword(s):

Older Adults ◽

Suicide Rate ◽

State Level ◽

Positive Association ◽

Gun Violence ◽

Significant Positive Association ◽

Negatively Associated ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

Gun Laws ◽

Using Data

Abstract Background: Older adults commit suicide at a disproportionately higher rate compared to the general population, with firearms the most common means of suicide. State gun laws may be a policy remedy. Less is known about Gun Violence Restricting Order (GVRO) laws, which allow for removal of firearms from people deemed to be a danger to themselves or others, and their effects on suicide rates among older adults. The purpose of this study was to examine the association of state firearm laws with the incidence of firearm, non-firearm-related, and total suicide among older adults, with a focus on GVRO laws. Methods: This is a longitudinal study of US states using data from 2012 to 2016. The outcome variables were firearm, non-firearm and total suicide rates among older adults. Predictor variables were (1) total number of gun laws to assess for impact of overall firearm legislation at the state level, and (2) GVRO laws. Results: The total number of firearm laws, as well as GVRO laws, were negatively associated with firearm-related suicide rate among older adults (p<0.001). There was a small but significant positive association of total number of firearm laws to non-firearm-related suicide rates and a negative association with total suicide rate. GVRO laws were not significantly associated with non-firearm-related suicide and were negatively associated with total suicide rate. Conclusion: Stricter firearm legislation, as well as GVRO laws, are protective against firearm-relate suicides among older adults.

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National Antibiotics Utilization Trends for Human Use in Tanzania from 2010 to 2016 Inferred from Tanzania Medicines and Medical Devices Authority Importation Data

10.20944/preprints202108.0263.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Raphael Zozimus Sangeda ◽

Habibu A Saburi ◽

Cassian Faustine ◽

Beatrice Godwin Aiko ◽

Erick Alexander ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Medical Devices ◽

Fold Increase ◽

P Value ◽

Antimicrobial Use ◽

Antibiotic Utilization ◽

Antibiotics Use ◽

Time Series Analyses ◽

Human Use ◽

Using Data

Antimicrobial use (AMU) is one of the major drivers of emerging antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Surveillance of AMU, a pillar of AMR stewardship (AMS), helps devise strategies to mitigate AMR. This descriptive, longitudinal retrospective study quantified the trends in human antibiotic utilization between 2010 and 2016 using data on all antibiotics imported for systemic human use into Tanzania's mainland. Regression and time series analyses were used to establish trends in antibiotics use. A total of 12,073 records for antibiotics were retrieved, totaling 154.51Daily Defined Doses per 1,000 inhabitants per day (DID) with a mean (± standard deviation) of 22.07 (±48.85) DID. The private sector contributed 93.76%% of utilized antibiotics. The top-ranking antibiotics were amoxicillin, metronidazole, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin and cefalexin. The DDIs and percentage contribution of these antibiotics were 53.78 (34.81%), 23.86 (15.44), 20.53 (13.29), 9.27 (6.0) and 6.94 (4.49), respectively. The time series model predicted significant increase in utilization(p-value =0.002). The model forecasted that by 2022, the total antibiotics consumed would reach 89.6 DIDs, corresponding to a 13-fold increase compared to 2010. Government intervention to curb inappropriate antibiotic utilization to mitigate the rising threat of antibiotic resistance should focus on implementing AMS programs in pharmacies and hospitals in Tanzania.

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Predicting the Time-Series Suicide Rate in Japan by Motive: A Brief Note

OMEGA - Journal of Death and Dying ◽

10.2190/1kty-arlf-4q2h-6v7v ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 45 (2) ◽

pp. 149-152 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

David Lester ◽

Yukio Saito

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Suicide Rate ◽

Social Indicators ◽

Health Concerns ◽

Time Series Study ◽

Work Related ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

The Social ◽

Divorce Rates ◽

Series Study

In a time series study of suicide rates in Japan from 1978–1997, it was found that the social indicators which predict the suicide rates differ for suicides committed for interpersonal, work-related, and health concerns. While measures of domestic social integration predicted the suicide rate for interpersonal reasons, unemployment, and divorce rates predicted the suicide rate for work-related reasons.

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