Beyond the Gambling Paradigm: Internal Controllability in Decision-Making

2001 ◽  
Vol 89 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduard Brandstätter ◽  
Herbert Schwarzenberger
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Personal Control ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Unrealistic Optimism ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Life Decisions

Much research within decision-making has used the standard gambling paradigm where decision outcomes depend only on chance. Many real life decisions, however simply personal control over decision outcomes. This paper addressed the question of how internal controllability influences decision-making. Internal controllability is assumed (i) to enhance unrealistic optimism and (ii) to result in a better cost:benefit ratio. Both tendencies support each other and predict an enhanced attractiveness for internal and controllable choice options. Participants read a scenario and made a decision afterwards. Results supported the prediction: decision-makers take the option they can personally control. This finding widens the narrow perspective inherent in much previous research based on the gambling paradigm.

scholarly journals Chameleonic knowledge: a study of ex ante analysis in large infrastructure policy processes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Dorren ◽  
Wouter Van Dooren
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Knowledge Use ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Substantive Content ◽  
Infrastructure Policy ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Ex Ante

AbstractUsing ex ante analysis to predict policy outcomes is common practice in the world of infrastructure planning. However, accounts of its uses and merits vary widely. Advisory agencies and government think tanks advocate this practice to prevent cost overruns, short-term decision-making and suboptimal choices. Academic studies on knowledge use, on the other hand, are critical of how knowledge can be used in decision making. Research has found that analyses often have no impact at all on decision outcomes or are mainly conducted to provide decision makers with the confidence to decide rather than with objective facts. In this paper, we use an ethnographic research design to understand how it is possible that the use of ex ante analysis can be depicted in such contradictory ways. We suggest that the substantive content of ex ante analysis plays a limited role in understanding its depictions and uses. Instead, it is the process of conducting an ex ante analysis itself that unfolds in such a manner that the analysis can be interpreted and used in many different and seemingly contradictory ways. In policy processes, ex ante analysis is like a chameleon, figuratively changing its appearance based on its environment.

Frameworks and Models in Decision-Making and Judgment in Child Welfare and Protection

2020 ◽  
pp. 3-26
Author(s):  
Rami Benbenishty ◽  
John D. Fluke
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Processing ◽  
Child Welfare ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Theoretical Perspectives ◽  
Specificity And Sensitivity ◽  
Predictive Risk

This chapter presents the basic concepts, theoretical perspectives, and areas of scholarship that bear on decisions in child welfare—making choices in decision environments characterized by high levels of uncertainty. The authors distinguish between normative models that predict what decision-makers ought to choose when faced with alternatives and descriptive models that describe how they tend to make these choices in real life. The chapter reviews those challenges that may be especially relevant in the complex context of child welfare and protection. One way in which decision-makers overcome task complexities and limitations in human information processing (bounded rationality) is by using heuristics to navigate complex tasks. The chapter reviews strategies to correct some limitations in judgment. The authors examine the relationships between workers’ predictions of what would be the outcomes of the case and the actual outcomes and describe two types of error (false positive and false negative) and the related concepts of specificity and sensitivity. These issues are followed by a description of the Lens Model and some of its implications for child welfare decision-making, including predictive risk modeling and studies on information processing models. The final section presents current theoretical models in child welfare decision-making and describes Decision-Making Ecology (DME) and Judgments and Decision Processes in Context (JUDPiC). The chapter concludes with suggestions for future research on child welfare decision-making that could contribute to our conceptual understanding and have practical utility as well.

An Application of the Integrated IBA-TOPSIS Model in Supplier Selection

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ksenija Mandić ◽  
Boris Delibašić ◽  
Dragan Radojević
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Boolean Algebra ◽  
Supplier Selection ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Qualitative Variables ◽  
Hidden Knowledge ◽  
Multi Attribute Decision Making

The supplier selection process attracted a lot of attention in the business management literature. This process takes into consideration several quantitative and qualitative variables and is usually modeled as a multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problem. A recognized shortcoming in the literature of classical MADM methods is that they don't permit the identification of interdependencies among attributes. Therefore, the aim of this study is to propose a model for selecting suppliers of telecommunications equipment that includes the interaction between attributes. This interaction can model the hidden knowledge needed for efficient decision-making. To model interdependencies among attributes the authors use a recently proposed consistent fuzzy logic, i.e. interpolative Boolean algebra (IBA). For alternatives ranking they use the classical MADM method TOPSIS. The proposed model was evaluated on a real-life application. The conclusion is that decision makers were able to integrate their reasoning into the MADM model using interpolative Boolean algebra.

scholarly journals AHP-Group Decision Making Based on Consistency

Mathematics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Aguarón ◽  
María Teresa Escobar ◽  
José Moreno-Jiménez ◽  
Alberto Turón
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Consensus Matrix ◽  
Stability Intervals ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Individual Consistency

The Precise consistency consensus matrix (PCCM) is a consensus matrix for AHP-group decision making in which the value of each entry belongs, simultaneously, to all the individual consistency stability intervals. This new consensus matrix has shown significantly better behaviour with regards to consistency than other group consensus matrices, but it is slightly worse in terms of compatibility, understood as the discrepancy between the individual positions and the collective position that synthesises them. This paper includes an iterative algorithm for improving the compatibility of the PCCM. The sequence followed to modify the judgments of the PCCM is given by the entries that most contribute to the overall compatibility of the group. The procedure is illustrated by means of its application to a real-life situation (a local context) with three decision makers and four alternatives. The paper also offers, for the first time in the scientific literature, a detailed explanation of the process followed to solve the optimisation problem proposed for the consideration of different weights for the decision makers in the calculation of the PCCM.

scholarly journals A Novel Linguistic Z-Number QUALIFLEX Method and Its Application to Large Group Emergency Decision Making

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xue-Feng Ding ◽  
Li-Xia Zhu ◽  
Mei-Shun Lu ◽  
Qi Wang ◽  
Yi-Qi Feng
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Matrix ◽  
Large Group ◽  
Emergency Event ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
Alternative Solutions

After an unconventional emergency event occurs, a reasonable and effective emergency decision should be made within a short time period. In the emergency decision making process, decision makers’ opinions are often uncertain and imprecise, and determining the optimal solution to respond to an emergency event is a complex group decision making problem. In this study, a novel large group emergency decision making method, called the linguistic Z-QUALIFLEX method, is developed by extending the QUALIFLEX method using linguistic Z-numbers. The evaluations of decision makers on the alternative solutions are first expressed as linguistic Z-numbers, and the group decision matrix is then constructed by aggregating the evaluations of all subgroups. The QUALIFLEX method is used to rank the alternative solutions for the unconventional emergency event. Besides, a real-life example of emergency decision making is presented, and a comparison with existing methods is performed to validate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed linguistic Z-QUALIFLEX can accurately express the evaluations of the decision makers and obtain a more reasonable ranking result of solutions for emergency decision making.

scholarly journals Significance of multi-objective optimization in logistics problem for multi-product supply chain network under the intuitionistic fuzzy environment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srikant Gupta ◽  
Ahteshamul Haq ◽  
Irfan Ali ◽  
Biswajit Sarkar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Supply Chain Network ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Fuzzy Environment ◽  
Hierarchical Decision

AbstractDetermining the methods for fulfilling the continuously increasing customer expectations and maintaining competitiveness in the market while limiting controllable expenses is challenging. Our study thus identifies inefficiencies in the supply chain network (SCN). The initial goal is to obtain the best allocation order for products from various sources with different destinations in an optimal manner. This study considers two types of decision-makers (DMs) operating at two separate groups of SCN, that is, a bi-level decision-making process. The first-level DM moves first and determines the amounts of the quantity transported to distributors, and the second-level DM then rationally chooses their amounts. First-level decision-makers (FLDMs) aimed at minimizing the total costs of transportation, while second-level decision-makers (SLDM) attempt to simultaneously minimize the total delivery time of the SCN and balance the allocation order between various sources and destinations. This investigation implements fuzzy goal programming (FGP) to solve the multi-objective of SCN in an intuitionistic fuzzy environment. The FGP concept was used to define the fuzzy goals, build linear and nonlinear membership functions, and achieve the compromise solution. A real-life case study was used to illustrate the proposed work. The obtained result shows the optimal quantities transported from the various sources to the various destinations that could enable managers to detect the optimum quantity of the product when hierarchical decision-making involving two levels. A case study then illustrates the application of the proposed work.

scholarly journals Multiple Criteria Decision Making Based on Probabilistic Interval-Valued Hesitant Fuzzy Sets by Using LP Methodology

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Sarwar Sindhu ◽  
Tabasam Rashid ◽  
Agha Kashif ◽  
Juan Luis García Guirao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Multiple Criteria ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Occurrence Probability ◽  
Hesitant Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Life Problems ◽  
Interval Valued

Probabilistic interval-valued hesitant fuzzy sets (PIVHFSs) are an extension of interval-valued hesitant fuzzy sets (IVHFSs) in which each hesitant interval value is considered along with its occurrence probability. These assigned probabilities give more details about the level of agreeness or disagreeness. PIVHFSs describe the belonging degrees in the form of interval along with probabilities and thereby provide more information and can help the decision makers (DMs) to obtain precise, rational, and consistent decision consequences than IVHFSs, as the correspondence of unpredictability and inaccuracy broadly presents in real life problems due to which experts are confused to assign the weights to the criteria. In order to cope with this problem, we construct the linear programming (LP) methodology to find the exact values of the weights for the criteria. Furthermore these weights are employed in the aggregation operators of PIVHFSs recently developed. Finally, the LP methodology and the actions are then applied on a certain multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem and a comparative analysis is given at the end.

scholarly journals Homogeneous Groups of Actors in an AHP-Local Decision Making Context: A Bayesian Analysis

Mathematics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Altuzarra ◽  
Pilar Gargallo ◽  
José María Moreno-Jiménez ◽  
Manuel Salvador
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Homogeneous Groups ◽  
Decision Tools ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Local Decision Making

The two procedures traditionally followed for group decision making with the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) are the Aggregation of Individual Judgments (AIJ) and the Aggregation of Individual Priorities (AIP). In both cases, the geometric mean is used to synthesise judgments and individual priorities into a collective position. Unfortunately, positional measures (means) are only representative if dispersion is reduced. It is therefore necessary to develop decision tools that allow: (i) the identification of groups of actors that present homogeneous and differentiated behaviours; and, (ii) the aggregation of the priorities of the near groups to reach collective positions with the greatest possible consensus. Following a Bayesian approach to AHP in a local context (a single criterion), this work proposes a methodology to solve these problems when the number of actors is not high. The method is based on Bayesian comparison and selection of model tools which identify the number and composition of the groups as well as their priorities. This information can be very useful to identify agreement paths among the decision makers that can culminate in a more representative decision-making process. The proposal is illustrated by a real-life case study.

scholarly journals A Novel Dynamic Multi-Criteria Decision Making Method Based on Generalized Dynamic Interval-Valued Neutrosophic Set

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Tho Thong ◽  
Florentin Smarandache ◽  
Nguyen Dinh Hoa ◽  
Le Hoang Son ◽  
Luong Thi Hong Lan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Neutrosophic Set ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Neutrosophic Sets ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Interval Valued ◽  
Knowledge Evaluation

Dynamic multi-criteria decision-making (DMCDM) models have many meaningful applications in real life in which solving indeterminacy of information in DMCDMs strengthens the potential application of DMCDM. This study introduces an extension of dynamic internal-valued neutrosophic sets namely generalized dynamic internal-valued neutrosophic sets. Based on this extension, we develop some operators and a TOPSIS method to deal with the change of both criteria, alternatives, and decision-makers by time. In addition, this study also applies the proposal model to a real application that facilitates ranking students according to attitude-skill-knowledge evaluation model. This application not only illustrates the correctness of the proposed model but also introduces its high potential appliance in the education domain.

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