scholarly journals Analysis of Okun’s Regularity: The Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina

ECONOMICS ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-147
Author(s):  
Ognjen Erić ◽  
Goran Popović ◽  
Jelena Bjelić
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Functional Relation ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Output Market ◽  
Variable Direction ◽  
Percentile Point

AbstractEconomic growth, or, more precisely, GDP growth rate (Y) is the key macroeconomic indicator. Positive tendencies of GDP growth (r) mostly impact the economic welfare of the national economy. Hence, output is analysed in combination with other macroeconomic aggregates and indicators: investments, inflation, unemployment, trade exchange and the like. In the context of researching the relation between GDP trends and unemployment rate, A.M. Okun was the first to notice regularity between these variables. Okun’s law shows the direction and strength of GDP changes under the influence of (un)employment and represents functional relation between the output market and labour market. This paper aims to prove that, to a certain extent, there exists Okun’s regularity in Bosnian and Herzegovinian economy for the period of 2000-2019. The results of linear regression analysis show that there is negative correlation (R=0,451) between variables Y (output) and X (unemployment). Determination coefficient R2 = 0,204 indicates that 20,4% variations in GDP is determined by the changes in unemployment. Coefficient β in linear regression equation is negative, amounting to -0,596, which means that a change in unemployment by 1 percentile point brings about an inverse change in GDP by approximately 0,6 units. Variable direction indicates that there exists Okun’s regularity, though with significantly weaker intensity among the variables. This proves the hypothesis that there is a negative functional relation between the output market and labour market in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

scholarly journals INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE EXAMPLE OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

2021 ◽  
pp. 21-41
Author(s):  
Jelena Bjelić
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Total Investment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

An investment is a factor of the economic growth and a mandatory constituent in the majority of development models. This study analyzes the impact of the gross investment on the economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) for the period 2005-2017, and provides the assessment of the interdependence of investment and a newly added value in industry. The relationship between the foreign investment and the economic growth is also included. The dependent variables are the GDP growth rate and the added value in industry (as % of GDP). The independent variables are the total investment rate (as % of GDP) and the foreign investment rate (as % of GDP). The hypothesis is that the gross investment and the foreign investment are positively correlated with the GDP growth rate. The investments contribute to a higher newly added value in industry. The results show that the gross investment is a significant factor of the economic growth because there is a high significance and positive correlation between the observed variables (the total investment and the GDP growth). This shows that the investment growth stimulates the economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the dynamic analysis as an investment-GDP ratio shows oscillations. The impact of investments on the share of the newly added value in industry is insignificant and negative. The results of the dynamic analysis are similar. The relationship between the variables of the foreign investment rates and the GDP growth is significant and positive. Although the foreign investments are not sufficient, they still contribute, to a certain extent, to the economic growth of BiH.

scholarly journals Impact of Foreign Exchange Rate and Inflation Rate on the Economic Growth of India

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 4333-4335
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Progress ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper tries to investigate the impact of foreign exchange rate and inflation rate on the economic progress of India. In this study the economic progress has been measured by annual GDP ( Gross Domestic Product ) growth in India. Correlation analysis and multiple regression model have been designed to explore the relationship among the mentioned three variables. The annual GDP growth of India has been considered as the dependent variable and the other two macroeconomic variables ( Foreign exchange rate and inflation rate ) have been considered as the independent variables. Secondary sources of data have been gathered to arrive at a logical conclusion. The results show a positive correlation between GDP growth rate and the foreign exchange rate and a negative correlation between the GDP growth rate and the inflation rate. Results from the linear regression analysis show that inflation rate has a strong influence or impact on the GDP growth rate than the foreign exchange rate. It is expected that the present study will help the policy makers and the researchers to understand the impact of foreign exchange rate and inflation rate on the GDP growth in India

scholarly journals Testing Instability in Growth Patterns in the Course of Transition: Evidence for Balkan Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-463
Author(s):  
Nataša Trajkova-Najdovska ◽  
Snežana Radukić
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Simple Linear Regression Analysis

AbstractStylised facts of GDP growth patterns of developing (or transition) countries reveal huge difference to the GDP pattern observed in developed countries. Namely, they are characterised by a specific characteristic - instability, much higher and different from the ones observed in developed countries. This paper brings forward the assessment of the instability of growth, which is observed and tested in the case of several Balkan economies. In the course of transition, they experienced sudden turns from positive to negative average growth rates (or vice versa) caused by many structural, economic, political and social changes. Hence, the main purpose of the paper is to review the very recent literature on instability in growth and to empirically analyse it in the case of Balkan group of transition economies, performed by use of the simple linear regression analysis on the GDP growth data series. Main goal is to determine whether GDP growth patterns in the course of transition were characterised by instability and breaks. The results suggest that the growth process in Balkan economies cannot be described simply by a single rising trend, since the simple linear regression analysis shows very poor statistical fit. In general, the assessment guides towards an in-depth study of the instability of growth in the course of transition with a novel growth concept that will allow for shifts or breaks in trend, accompanied by a non-linear modelling approach that will allow the parameters to adjust to reflect structural changes in the course of transition.

scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of Insurance Pemiums in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina - Multiple Linear Regression Analysis Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-35
Author(s):  
Tijana Kaličanin ◽  
Sandra Kamenkovic ◽  
Ivana Simeunović
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Insurance Market ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Insurance Premiums ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

In the last few years, the global insurance market has shown a trend of concentration growth, which was conditioned by the processes of mergers and acquisitions in insurance. The aim of this paper is to make a comparative analysis of insurance premiums in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dynamic analysis of market concentration indicators calculated on the basis of absolute amounts of premiums indicates that the insurance market in Bosnia and Herzegovina is characterized by low concentrated supply, i.e. there is greater equality of market share in relation to high inequality and high concentration among market participants in the insurance sector of the Republic of Serbia. Having applied the multi-linear regression model in order to analyze the impact of selected macroeconomic indicators on the amount of insurance premiums in the period 2000-2017, it can be concluded that the greatest impact on the amount of the premium in Bosnia and Herzegovina had Gross Domestic Income and Wage and Salaries Workers. In the Republic of Serbia, the greatest influence on the amount of premium in the observed period had the Average Net Salary, Households and Final Consumption Expenditure and Gross Domestic Income.

scholarly journals FAKTOR – FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI TINGKAT PENGGANGGURANDI PROVINSI SULAWESI UTARA

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1A) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Arfan ., Poyoh ◽  
Gene H. M. Kapantow ◽  
Juliana R. Mandei
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Affecting Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
North Sulawesi

The study aims to analyze the factors - factors affecting the level of unemployment in theprovince of North Sulawesi. These factors include wages, inflation and GDP growth. This study usesmultiple linear regression analysis with Ordinary Least Square method (OLS) was performed using14 years data from 2001 to 2014. The results showed wage variables significantly influence theunemployment rate in North Sulawesi province with probability 0.0104, while inflation and levels ofGDP growth does not significantly influence the unemployment rate with respective probabilities0.5619 for Inflation and 0.3791 for GDP growth.Keywords: affecting factors, wages, inflation, GDP growth, unemployment, North Sulawesi Province

PENGARUH FAKTOR-FAKTOR INTERNAL PERBANKAN TERHADAP NON PERFORMING FINANCING PADA BANK UMUM SYARIAH

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 115-130
Author(s):  
Eka Ambara Harci Putranta ◽  
Lilik Ambarwati
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Independent Variable

The study aims to analyze the influence of internal banking factors in the form of: Capital Adequency Ratio (CAR), Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR) and Total Assets (TA) to Non Performing Financing at Sharia Banks. This research method used multiple linear regression analysis with the help of SPSS 16.00 software which is used to see the influence between the independent variables in the form of Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR) and Total Assets (TA) to Non Performing Financing. The sample of this study was 3 Islamic Commercial Banks, so there were 36 annual reports obtained through purposive sampling, then analyzed using multiple linear regression methods. The results showed that based on the F Test, the independent variable had an effect on the NPF, indicated by the F value of 17,016 and significance of 0,000, overall the independent variable was able to explain the effect of 69.60%. While based on the partial t test, showed that CAR has a significant negative effect, Total assets have a significant positive effect with a significance value below 0.05 (5%). Meanwhile FDR does not affect NPF.

ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, KURS DAN IHSG TERHADAP RETURN REKSA DANA SAHAM PT NIKKO SECURITIES INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rois Rois ◽  
Manarotul Fatati Fatati ◽  
Winda Ihda Magfiroh
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Equity Fund ◽  
Stock Price Index

This study aims to determine the effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate and Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) to Return of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia Stock Fund period 2014-2017. The study used secondary data obtained through documentation in the form of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia Monthly Net Asset (NAB) report. Data analysis is used with quantitative analysis, multiple linear regression analysis using eviews 9. Population and sample in this research are PT Nikko Securities Indonesia. The result of multiple linear regression analysis was the coefficient of determination (R2) showed the result of 0.123819 or 12%. This means that the Inflation, Exchange Rate and Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) variables can influence the return of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia's equity fund of 12% and 88% is influenced by other variables. Based on the result of the research, the variables of inflation and exchange rate have a negative and significant effect toward the return of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia's equity fund. While the variable of Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) has a negative but not significant effect toward Return of Equity Fund of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia

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