scholarly journals Denoised Inflation: A New Measure of Core Inflation

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-154
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nadim Hanif ◽  
Javaid Iqbal ◽  
Syed Hamza Ali ◽  
Muhammad Abdus Salam
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Analysis Approach ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
The Core ◽  
Cyclical Component

AbstractExisting measures of core inflation ignore a part of ‘should be’ the core inflation. Exclusion based measures ‘exclude’ a part of persistent inflation inherently existing in the excluded part whereas filter based measures ‘filter-out’ the cyclical part also rather than the irregular component only. This study proposes a new idea to define and measure core inflation – noise free inflation or denoised inflation. As against considering only trend to define core inflation, this study proposes using cyclical component also to be part of core inflation. If core inflation is to be useful, for monetary policy making, as an indicator of underlying inflation, it has to include demand related component of inflation associated with current economic cycle. By using wavelet analysis approach to decompose seasonally adjusted price index into noise, cyclical component and trend, we estimate a denoised inflation series for Pakistan for the period July 1992 to June 2017. Since denoised inflation passes ‘statistical’ as well as ‘theoretical’ tests necessary for a series to be core inflation, we think it can be used as a new core inflation measure for Pakistan. This can also be estimated and tested for any country.

Disaggregated inflation rate in the monetary policy of the central bank

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-40
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Hałka
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Price Setting ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
The Core ◽  
Setting Process

This article aims at presenting the results of the research concerning disaggregated price index in the assessment of inflation processes in Poland. Presented analysis shows that isaggregated approach allows for a fuller understanding of the nature of the price-setting process and etter identification of factors affecting inflation. The results indicate three conclusions. Firstly, a significant part of the inflation in Poland is dependent on domestic factors. Secondly, the core inflation rate should not be equated with the measure of demand pressures in the economy. Thirdly, a set of external factors affecting the price-setting process in Poland is relatively wide and distinct for different components of the price index.

Inflationsbegriff und Inflationsmessung

2007 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Horst Gischer ◽  
Mirko Weiß
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
The Core ◽  
Economic Concept

SummaryOur paper addresses the economic concept of inflation, and how to measure inflation properly in practise. First of all we present and discuss comprehensively various definitions of inflation proposed and used in the literature. What follows, is a detailed investigation of empirical proxies or indices to cover inflation quantitatively. We focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in general and for Germany in particular, the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HCPI), the Core Inflation and the GDP-Deflator. The paper concludes with an analysis of the method of measuring inflation applied within the scope of the ECB Governing Council’s monetary strategy.

scholarly journals U.S. CORE INFLATION: A WAVELET ANALYSIS

2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 513-536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Dowd ◽  
John Cotter ◽  
Lixia Loh
Keyword(s):  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Trend Inflation ◽  
Traditional Approaches ◽  
Wavelet Methods ◽  
Promising Avenue ◽  
Better Than

This paper proposes the use of wavelet methods to estimate U.S. core inflation. It explains wavelet methods and suggests that they are ideally suited to this task. Comparisons are made with traditional Consumer Price Index–based and regression-based measures for their performance in following trend inflation and predicting future inflation. Results suggest that wavelet-based measures perform better, and sometimes much better, than the traditional approaches. These results suggest that wavelet methods are a promising avenue for future research on core inflation.

scholarly journals Deepening and Connecting Democratic Processes. The Opportunities and Pitfalls of Mini-Publics in Renewing Democracy

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 236
Author(s):  
Ank Michels ◽  
Harmen Binnema
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Random Sampling ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Specific Design ◽  
Fundamental Nature ◽  
The Core ◽  
Equal Chance ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
Selection Of

In recent decades, so-called “mini-publics” have been organized in many countries to renew policy making and democracy. One characteristic of mini-publics is that the selection of the participants is based on random sampling or sortition. This gives each member of the community an equal chance of being selected. Another feature is that deliberation forms the core of the process of how proposals are developed. In this paper, we investigate the possibilities and challenges of sortition and deliberation in the context of the call for a deepening of democracy and more citizen engagement in policy making. Based on extensive research on citizens’ forums (G1000) in The Netherlands, we show the potential of mini-publics, but a number of shortcomings as well. Some of these are related to the specific design of the G1000, while others are of a more fundamental nature and are due to the contradictory democratic values that deliberative mini-publics try to combine. One of these concerns the tension between the quality of deliberation and political impact. We conclude that combining institutional approaches could be a way out to deal with these tensions and a step forward to both deepen and connect democratic processes.

Reconsidering the state

2020 ◽  
pp. 55-74
Author(s):  
Kate Crowley ◽  
Jenny Stewart ◽  
Adrian Kay ◽  
Brian W. Head
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
The State ◽  
Binary Choice ◽  
Policy Effectiveness ◽  
Comparative Public Policy ◽  
Policy Studies ◽  
The Core ◽  
State And Society ◽  
Public Policy Analysis

State-centred and society-centred explanations in comparative public policy analysis disagree markedly on the extent to which the state has autonomy or is essentially a clearing-house for outside forces. In this chapter, we reconsider the position of the state in policy studies by investigating the interactions and inter-dependency between the state and society rather than making a binary choice between state-centred and society-centred perspectives on governance. The core argument is that policy studies can improve its ability to apprehend the position of the state in dilemmas of contemporary policy-making by acknowledging that the state is, at once, both critical to collective action and reliant on crucial elements of societal support for its policy effectiveness. In such terms, governance is a useful label for the variety of ways in which society is not simply acted upon by the state, but actively shapes the actions of and outcomes of state activity.

TREND INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN EASTERN EUROPE

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1649-1663
Author(s):  
Monika Junicke
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Transition Economies ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Trend Inflation ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Eastern European Countries

I use a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a nonzero steady-state inflation to study monetary policy in transition economies. In particular, my analysis focuses on whether inflation targeting is based on a consumer price index (CPI) or its producer counterpart, producer price index (PPI). This issue is specifically relevant for transition economies as they might be subject to Balassa–Samuelson effects arising from trading in international markets. Under these circumstances, domestic inflation is possibly higher than imported inflation, hence targeting PPI inflation may prove more effective in influencing domestic macroeconomic variables than targeting CPI inflation. Using a Bayesian methodology, I find that the central banks of three Eastern European countries (namely, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) are likely to target PPI inflation rather than CPI inflation. This result is in line with the theoretical predictions in the literature, and is robust across several Taylor-type rules.

scholarly journals Efektivitas Kredibilitas Bank Sentral terhadap Inflasi bagi Produsen dan Konsumen di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 174-196
Author(s):  
Rakhmat Prabowo ◽  
Mohamad Ikhsan
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Wholesale Price Index ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Central Bank Credibility

This study is intended to explain the impact of central bank credibility on inflation in Indonesia at the producer and consumer level. In this study, Central Bank Credibility is measured using an index with values between 0 (zero credibility) and 1 (perfect credibility). Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method is used to analyze the impact of central bank credibility on inflation. Based on the results, central bank credibility can reduce inflation on both producer and consumer price. Central bank credibility is more sensitive towards producer price index compared to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) deflator and wholesale price index while at the consumer level, central bank credibility is more sensitive towards core inflation compared to headline inflation. -------------------------------------- Penelitian ini menjelaskan dampak kredibilitas Bank Sentral terhadap inflasi di Indonesia. Dampak kredibilitas Bank Sentral dianalisis pada tingkat produsen maupun konsumen. Untuk mengukur kredibilitas Bank Sentral, penelitian ini menggunakan indeks kredibilitas bernilai 0 (zero credibility) hingga 1 (perfect credibility). Metode Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) digunakan untuk menganalisis dampak kredibilitas Bank Sentral terhadap inflasi. Berdasarkan hasil empiris, kredibilitas Bank Sentral cenderung lebih memengaruhi inflasi pada Indeks Harga Produsen (IHP) dibandingkan Indeks Harga Perdagangan Besar (IHPB) dan deflator Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Kredibilitas Bank Sentral lebih memengaruhi inflasi inti dibandingkan dengan inflasi umum. Dari hasil empiris diketahui bahwa kredibilitas Bank Sentral lebih memengaruhi inflasi pada sisi produsen dibandingkan konsumen.

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