scholarly journals A Model to Simulate the Dynamics of Public Debt Sustainability in EU

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-96
Author(s):  
Ada Cristina Marinescu ◽  
Lucian-Liviu Albu
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Maastricht Treaty ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
General Process ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
The Public ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Number Of Classes

AbstractLast decades the public debt increased continuously in all countries of European Union. At present, in many countries this dangerous growth is seriously affecting the general process of economic development. Although in a number of countries the public debt is today larger than 60% of GDP, as the imposed limit by Maastricht Treaty, the problem of its sustainability is varying from country to country. Following old and recent published studies in matter of public debt sustainability, one objective of our study is to analyse the existence of a convergence or a divergence process both at the level of the whole EU and within the two major groups of countries (EU14 – old members of EU, after Brexit, and respectively EU11 – new eastern members adhered to EU after 2000). Other objective is to build a model to simulate the long term dynamics of the public debt as a function of standard variables (such as GDP growth, interest rate, budgetary deficit, etc.). Moreover, by using recent data from Eurostat, IMF, and World Bank, we try to estimate few essential parameters in order to control the public debt sustainability in each country of EU. Finally, countries are grouped in a number of classes for which certain policy measures could be evaluated.

scholarly journals Imbalance of the public finance in the context of Keynesian and Non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy limitation

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 27-32
Author(s):  
Joanna Stawska
Keyword(s):  
Public Finance ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Public ◽  
Methods Of Analysis ◽  
Restrictive Policy

The purpose of this article is to point out the importance of the size of public debt and deficit in the context of Keynesian and non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy limitation. To achieve this objective primarily were used methods of analysis of the available literature and presentation of statistical data. Considerations include, among others, the presentation of public debt and deficit in the context of economic growth. Expansionary fiscal policy often caused by economic fluctuations contributes to the deepening of public finance imbalance with frequent decline in GDP growth. The restrictive policy has an influence on improving the situation of the public finance sector in the long-term with at least moderate economic growth.

scholarly journals Critical Analysis of Public Debt and Tendencies of its Management

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 194
Author(s):  
Žaneta Karazijienė
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Maastricht Treaty ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
The Public ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
The International Monetary Fund

One of the most important factors in the macroeconomic system of every country is public debt. This is due to the processes of debt forming and its servicing has a significant influence to the financial system, the investment climate, the consumption structure and the development of the international corporation. The most common reason of the public debt and its increase is the existing policy which cannot ensure a steady balance of the state revenue and expenditure. A variety of theoretical concepts of the public debt management, scientists’ attitude towards the public debt, critical indicators (selected according to indicators defined in the Maastricht Treaty and in accordance with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank requirements) of the acceptability assessment of the public debt are analysed in this article. On the basis of identified critical indicators of the public debt acceptability, the critical analysis of Lithuanian borrowing tendencies and assessment of indicators is performed. The results revealed that Lithuania is often provided for non-compliance with the criteria approved by the Maastricht Treaty or the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The mathematical modelling of the Lithuanian public debt projections indicated that a tendency of a positive downward on the Lithuanian public debt share of GDP is likely to happen in the future.

scholarly journals Social development and public debt sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Chara Vavoura ◽  
Ioannis Vavouras
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Social Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Of Greece

The issue of public debt sustainability is of exceptional importance in the case of Greece. As a rule, the relevant analysis is limited to the examination of the fiscal policy measures reported to contribute to reducing public debt leaving out the investigation of the factors that caused the country’s debt crisis. The objective of the present paper is to explore the determinants of Greece’s debt crisis and the strategy required to address it. Our work highlights the issue of social development, which is found to be a necessary condition for ensuring the long run sustainability of the country’s public debt.

Finland's reforms may end period of stagnation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
One Year ◽  
Pension Age ◽  
The Eu

Subject Finland's economy. Significance The Finnish economy contracted from 2012 to 2014 and grew by only 0.5% last year. It has been facing both structural and cyclical headwinds and since 2010 three different governments have been unable to jump-start it. However, the current one-year-old Finnish government has staked much of its political capital on various reforms which are expected to lead to a resumption of growth and a slower increase in public debt. Impacts Due to demographic trends, Finland's long-term growth potential is estimated to be below 2%. Prolonged economic stagnation in the EU and Russia is likely to depress export and GDP growth. The pension age in Finland will increase automatically as life expectancy rises, which may be a model for other European countries.

The Public Debt of French Local Government

1985 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre-Henri Derycke ◽  
Guy Gilbert
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Tight Control ◽  
The Public ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTAfter a sharp increase, the public debt of French local communities has been stabilized in real terms: its amount reached 54 per cent of total public debt in 1980. In the French institutional framework, local government borrowing policy is under the tight control of central agencies. An econometric model of the borrowing behaviour of local governments since 1965 is presented; it emphasizes the role of internal determinants of local debt (needs for investment, self-financing ability of governments), external constraints (e.g. interest rates and the financial resources of lenders, such as households savings), and finally the impact of macroeconomic policy measures from the central government.

scholarly journals Deuda pública en México: dinámica e implicaciones de política

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (71) ◽  
pp. 22-43
Author(s):  
Oshiel Martínez Chapa ◽  
Jorge Eduardo Salazar Castillo ◽  
Saul Roberto Quispe Aruquipa
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
World Population ◽  
The Public ◽  
Oil Resources ◽  
Public Credit ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
The Cost

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the factors that have driven the public debt in Mexico and its consequences on the economy. The hypothesis proposed is that the increase in debt is related to factors such as discretion in the management of public resources, the guarantee of oil resources, the cost of financial bailouts and the growing social spending exercised. The research question is: How has public debt evolved in the medium and long term, and what are the consequences? The methodology used is qualitative in that it analyzes the facts and documents, and the second is quantitative in that it uses a regression model in which a growth rate of the variable in question is used. The data come from institutions such as the Bank of Mexico, the World Bank, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), as well as World Population Review. The paper concludes by highlighting the need for governments to adopt responsible policies in order to influence growth and economic development, and not that austerity policies cause low investment and unemployment in the country.

scholarly journals The Public Debt of Latvia: Short-Term and Long-Terms Aspects

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Staņislavs Keišs ◽  
Alla Seregina
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Level ◽  
Criteria For Evaluation ◽  
The Eu

The article investigates the structure and dynamics of public debt of Latvia for the period from 2006–2016 year. The relevance of the study long-term effects of public debt on the economy of Latvia is predetermined by a significant increase in its volume of low GDP growth rates in recent years. This article discusses conceptual approaches and criteria for evaluation of the public debt. An analysis of the main reasons for the growth of public debt of Latvia after joining the EU, considers its specific characteristics and consequences as compared with the more developed EU countries on the basis of these annual reports of Latvia Treasury over the past ten years. Analysis of the structure of the debt of Latvia on maturity shows that an effective public debt management necessarily involves consideration of the long-term effects of the growth of public debt to the public. High level of the external indebtedness in the structure of Latvian public debt is a factor of the growth of “debt overhang” even following Maastricht criterions of public debt. As a result of the research is justification of differentiated approach necessity to the evaluation of public debt with considering of intertemporal effects.

Pressures on embattled Zambian government will grow

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
The Government

Subject Zambian debt crises. Significance Both the IMF and World Bank have cut their growth projections for Zambia, compounding concerns about currency depreciation, inflation and escalating external debt. Amid public anger at worsening corruption, the government and President Edgar Lungu are struggling to contain mounting dissent. Impacts Lusaka’s ties to China, and criticism from the United States, could undermine future access to concessional IMF and World Bank loans. An opposition alliance will struggle to stay united and withstand authoritarian pressures from the government in advance of the 2021 polls. Growth will be slower than expected this year and next, and currency depreciation will continue to exacerbate the public debt burden.

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