scholarly journals Predicting Macroeconomic Indicators in the Czech Republic Using Econometric Models and Exponential Smoothing Techniques

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-99
Author(s):  
Bratu Mihaela Simionescu
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Econometric Modeling ◽  
Smoothing Techniques ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run

Abstract Econometric modeling and exponential smoothing techniques are two quantitative forecasting methods with good results in practice, but the objective of the research was to find out which of the two techniques are better for short run predictions. Therefore, for inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the Czech Republic various accuracy indicators were calculated for the predictions based on these methods. Short run forecasts on a horizon of 3 months were made for December 2011-February 2012, the econometric models being updated. For the Czech Republic, the exponential smoothing techniques provided more accurate forecasts than the econometric models (VAR(2) models, ARMA procedure and models with lagged variables). One explication for the better performance of smoothing techniques would be that in the chosen countries the short run predictions were more influenced by the recent evolution of the indicators.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the adequacy of government minimum wage valorization policy in the Czech Republic in 2017 in the European context

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Pernica
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Minimum Wages ◽  
Income Poverty ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
Workforce Productivity

Research background: The government of the Czech Republic has agreed to an increase in the minimum monthly wage as of the beginning of 2017 to 11,000 CZK, which represents a year-over-year increase of over 11 %. The government is thus fulfilling its objective set out in February 2014 and stipulated in the Government Statement of Purpose, i.e. to approximate the minimum wage to 40 % of average wages. Purpose of the article: The purpose of the article is to assess the adequacy of the Government Minimum Wage Valorization Policy, in particular from two points of view. Firstly, in view of selected macroeconomic indicators in the Czech Republic — the development of consumer prices, average gross wages, economic growth and workforce productivity. Secondly, in comparison with other EU member states which have introduced the institution of a minimum wage. Methods: In order to assess the adequacy of government policy to improve the social protection of the rights of the working population, a background research was conducted into the literature of important studies on the effects of minimum wages on unemployment, while the development of average gross wages in the CR, the minimum monthly wages in the CR and the Kaitz index were also analyzed. Furthermore, an evaluation of selected macroeconomic indicators in the Czech Republic was performed by means of time lines and the percentage representation of employees in the individual gross wage bands according to sex and type of economic activity. Last, but not least, a comparison was made of minimum wages, real gross domestic product per capita and workforce productivity in Euros and in purchasing power standards between the Czech Republic and countries which have enacted the institution of minimum wages. Findings and Value added: The minimum wage in the Czech Republic is the fifth lowest in the EU. In the long term, it is earned by approximately 3% of employees, which is less than the rate common in other EU countries. Currently, the amount of the minimum wage is below the threshold of income poverty. In comparison with the GDP per capita in PPS and real labour productivity per person employed in other EU countries, the position of the Czech Republic is significantly better, although other EU countries offer higher minimum wages. The decision of the current government to significantly increase the minimum wage as of 2017 is correct.

scholarly journals Implementation of R&D Results and Industry 4.0 Influenced by Selected Macroeconomic Indicators

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1846 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jena Švarcová ◽  
Tomáš Urbánek ◽  
Lucie Povolná ◽  
Eliška Sobotková
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Industry 4.0 ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Close Link ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Impact

Successful timing of INDUSTRY 4.0 projects in businesses can be disrupted by the coming of a recession. The authors assume a close link between INDUSTRY 4.0 and research and development (R&D) projects. R&D projects are statistically internationally monitored and have a significant impact on European Union economic policies. This article explores the impact of the two economic recessions in 2009 and 2012–2013 on the number of R&D entities and human resources involved in R&D in the Czech Republic. The method of multivariate statistics with dummy variables was used. Research has shown that different sectors (business sector, government sector, higher education sector, and non-profit sector) show a different development of the number of R&D entities in times of economic crisis. The research findings indicate that current European Union grant support, tax relief, and other specific factors appear to be more important for the development of R&D projects in the Czech Republic than the effects of economic recession. In terms of longer time horizons, however, the effects of the business cycle cannot be ignored. In order to predict economic development, enterprises and other subjects can use leading macroeconomic indicators.

scholarly journals Interest rates and prices causality in the Czech Republic – Granger approach

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (No. 7) ◽  
pp. 347-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Poměnková ◽  
S. Kapounek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The Interest Rate

Monetary policy analysis concerns both the assumptions of the transmission mechanism and the direction of causality between the nominal (i.e. the money) and real economy. The traditional channel of monetary policy implementation works via the interest rate changes and their impact on the investment activity and the aggregate demand. Altering the relationship between the aggregate demand and supply then impacts the general price level and hence inflation. Alternatively, the Post-Keynesians postulate money as a residual. In their approach, banks credit in response to the movements in investment activities and demand for money. In this paper, the authors use the VAR (i.e. the vector autoregressive) approach applied to the “Taylor Rule” concept to identify the mechanism and impact of the monetary policy in the small open post-transformation economy of the Czech Republic. The causality (in the Granger sense) between the interest rate and prices in the Czech Republic is then identified. The two alternative modelling approaches are tested. First, there is the standard VAR analysis with the lagged values of interest rate, inflation and economic growth as explanatory variables. This model shows one way causality (in the Granger sense) between the inflation rate and interest rate (i.e. the inflation rate is (Granger) caused by the lagged interest rate). Secondly, the lead (instead of lagged) values of the interest rate, inflation rate and real exchange rate are used. This estimate shows one way causality between the inflation rate and interest rate in the sense that interest rate is caused by the lead (i.e. the expected future) inflation rate. The assumptions based on money as a residual of the economic process were rejected in both models.

Entrepreneurship in Tourism Sector in Central European Country: Hospitality Trends in the Czech Republic in 2007 - 2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1351
Author(s):  
Ladislav MURA ◽  
Patrik KAJZAR
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Central European ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of occupancy in accommodation establishments in the Czech Republic at an average pace of real wage growth (%), GDP (%) and unemployment rate (%) in the period 2007-2016. The main sources of information utilized in contributions are based on tourism statistics and selected macroeconomic indicators obtained from the website of the Czech Statistical Office. The data was analysed using SAS software. The authors use regression analysis. It deals with dependence of the quantitative variable on one or more quantitative variables. The main results of this survey indicate an increase of  occupancy in collective acommodation establishements in the Czech Republic between 2007 - 2016, as well as a moderate increase was detected in  real wages and the GDP. While detecting an  increase of  occupancy in collective acommodation establishements in the Czech Republic, the fall of unemployment rate was recognized.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document