Using distributed lag models to predict regional budget revenues

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1154-1172
Author(s):  
Yu.V. Granitsa
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Key Indicator ◽  
Distributed Lag Models ◽  
Regional Budget ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Financial Result

Subject. The article addresses projections of regional budget revenues, using distributed lag models. Objectives. The purpose is to review economic and statistical tools that are suitable for the analysis of relationship between the revenues of the regional budget system and regional macroeconomic predictors. Methods. The study draws on statistical, constructive, economic and mathematical methods of analysis. Results. In models with quantitative variables obtained under the Almon method, the significant predictors in the forecasting of regional budget revenues are determined mainly by the balanced financial result, the consumer price index, which characterizes inflation processes in the region, and the unemployment rate being the key indicator of the labor market. Models with quantitative variables obtained through the Koyck transformation are characterized by a wider range of predictors, the composition of which is determined by the peculiarities of economic situation in regions. The two-year forecast provides the average lag obtained during the evaluation of the models. The exception is the impact of unemployment rate, which is characterized as long-term. Conclusions. To generate forecasts of budget parameters, the results of both the Koyck method and the Almon method should be considered, though the former is more promising.

scholarly journals Analysis and Forecasts of the Demand for Imported Wine in China

2021 ◽  
pp. 193896552098107
Author(s):  
Anyu Liu ◽  
Haiyan Song
Keyword(s):  
Single Equation ◽  
Specific Model ◽  
Specific Method ◽  
Sparkling Wine ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Models ◽  
Wine Market ◽  
Wine Demand

The aim of this study is to investigate the long-term determinants of China’s imported wine demand and to forecast wine imports from 2019 to 2023 using econometric methods. Auto-regressive distributed lag models are developed based on neoclassical economic demand theory to investigate the long-term determinants of China’s demand for imported bottled, bulk, and sparkling wine from the top five countries of origin. The empirical results demonstrate that income is the most important determinant of China’s imported wine demand, and that price only plays a significant role in a few markets. Substitute and complement effects are identified between wines from different countries of origin and between imported wines and other liquids. China’s imported wine demand is expected to maintain its rapid growth over the forecast period. Bottled wine will continue to dominate China’s imported wine market. France will have the largest market share in the bottled wine market, Spain will be the largest provider of bulk wine, and Italy will hold the same position for sparkling wine. This is the first study to use a single equation with the general to specific method rather than a system of equations to estimate and forecast China’s demand for imported bottled, bulk, and sparkling wines from different countries of origin. The more specific model setting for each country of origin improves forecasting accuracy.

An investigation on fuel carrier’s price rise impacts on the consumer price inflation in Iran

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nima Norouzi
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Gasoline Prices ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fuel Price ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Oil Derivatives ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: Oil is one of the primary commodities of all countries globally and is, in essence, the energy base of all that we know as transportation. Therefore, price fluctuations of derivatives, especially fuel and oil derivatives, are the policymakers’ main concerns because they can cause serious problems, such as inflation in commodity prices. Objective: The impact of fuel carriers’ prices on the consumer price index remains a subject of debate and research. This paper aims to develop a model to define the inflation regime in Iran and then investigate the impact of gasoline and diesel price on the total inflation rate. Method: In this study, using the central bank time series and available data on energy balance and World Bank data banks, a non-linear distributed online delay regression modeling is developed to analyze the relationship between fuel price and essential commodity inflation. Results: The results show that there is an impact of gasoline price on inflation. It does not have much effect in the long term, but diesel can somewhat influence raising prices, which can exacerbate poverty in the community that needs special attention. Conclusion: It was also found that diesel’s price is harmful to the economy because it can stimulate inflation in the long term. However, in the short term, diesel does not cause any significant inflation in the prices. While gasoline prices can have many short-term social effects, this paper suggests that the Iranian government control diesel fuel prices prevent long-term inflation in inflation and consumer price rate.

scholarly journals PENGARUH PENANAMAN MODAL ASING TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Fajar Bimantoro ◽  
Mona Adriana S
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Impact

<em>The present study aimed to analyze the relationship between the level of foreign direct investment to Indonesia's economic growth in the period 1991-2014.Fokus of the present study was to analyze the short-term relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth Indonesia. In addition, along with the financial crisis 2008 global bit much negative of Indonesia affected by the global economic slowdown due to the crisis. This prompted the present study was to also perform forecasting of the impact of global financial crisis on foreign direct investment and relation to economic growth. To answer these questions, this research chose VAR Vector Auto Regression or as a method to answer the research questions. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index, BI rate, and the Exchange Rate, the variables used in this research. The estimation results of the VAR indicate that direct investment from abroad did not have an impact on economic growth in the long term but has a strong bond in the short term against the growth of economics. This indicates that foreign investment into Indonesia increasingly quality in promoting economic growth. In addition, the results of forecasting using impulse response function indicates there will be the tendency of a decrease in the level of foreign direct investment and economic growth in Indonesia.</em>

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of factors upon tourism revenue in Jordan

2020 ◽  
pp. 117-128
Author(s):  
Moayyad Shakra ◽  
Yuriy Davydovich Shmidt
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tourism Revenue

This article examines Jordan&rsquo;s tourism revenue over the recent years. Tourism is a substantial source of national revenue and significantly contributes to the flow of foreign currency for the development of national economy. The economic theory claims that tourism revenue is affected by a wide range of factors. The article explores the impact of consumer price index and number of tourists upon Jordan&rsquo;s tourism revenue. In the course of this study, the author used the statistical data of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund; applied Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL); and conducted necessary diagnostic tests in Eviews 9 software. The research demonstrated that high internal inflation ratios reduce the external demand for tourism services in Jordan, and thus significantly decrease the tourism revenue. Over a long-term, the author determines a negative influence of consumer price index upon tourism revenue in Jordan and the expected positive influence of the number of tourists thereof. &nbsp;

scholarly journals The nexus between the economic growth and unemployment in Jordan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hala Hjazeen ◽  
Mehdi Seraj ◽  
Huseyin Ozdeser
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Female Population ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThe main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of unemployment on Jordan's economy over the period 1991–2019. This study used the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to investigate the relationship between the unemployment rate and the other variables. Also, we employ the ARDL bootstrap cointegration approach to examine the correlation and long-run relationship among the variables. The empirical finding indicated a long-run relationship between the unemployment rate, economic growth, education, female population, and urban population in Jordan. Our finding shows the negative linkage between economic growth and unemployment, and a positive relationship among the education, female population, and urban population and unemployment in Jordan.

scholarly journals Spatial diversity of effectiveness of forms of professional activisation in Poland in years 2008–2014 by poviats

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-130
Author(s):  
Beata Bieszk-Stolorz ◽  
Krzysztof Dmytrów
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Spatial Diversity ◽  
Active Labour Market Policy ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Active Labour ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fold Cross Validation

Research background: Because the active labour market policy requires high resources, it is important to analyse the effectiveness of its instruments. For the unemployment, it is essential to identify the groups of persons threatened by the long-term unemployment, to assess the impact of programmes on exit from unemployment and monitoring the disbursement of funds. Purpose of the article: The goal of the article was identification of clusters of poviats in Poland with respect to cost and employment effectiveness of basic forms of professional activisation in the years 2008–2014. Methods: The poviats were clustered by means of the k-means method. Variables were standardised and the number of clusters was determined by means of the v-fold cross-validation. Findings & Value added: The analysis did not allow to unambiguously specify areas in Poland with better use of funds allocated in the activisation programmes. The poviats in the middle-east Poland were generally characterized by worse values of effectiveness. However, the unemployment rate in these areas was relatively small. On the contrary, the poviats in the north-east Poland had high unemployment rate and the funds were used effectively. Assessment of effectiveness of forms of professional activisation is very important because the activities of poviat labour offices influence the counteraction to unemployment.

The cost of hospital care for HIV patients in Colombia: an insurer’s perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 696-702
Author(s):  
Carlos A Álvarez-Moreno ◽  
Abel E González-Vélez ◽  
Claudia C Colmenares-Mejía ◽  
Karen L Rincón-Ramírez ◽  
Javier A García-Buitrago ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
T Lymphocyte ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
People Living With Hiv ◽  
Key Indicator ◽  
Clinical Control ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Living With Hiv ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost derived from the hospitalization of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Colombia between 2011 and 2015. This is an analysis of the direct cost of PLHIV hospitalization from the perspective of an insurer of the Colombian General Social Security System. The costs were calculated in Colombian pesos and corrected for inflation on the basis of the 2017 Consumer Price Index of the Bank of the Republic of Colombia. It was converted to US dollars at the Market Representative Exchange Rate of the same year. We analyzed 1129 hospitalizations in 612 PLHIV, of which 12% started with a diagnosis of HIV during the same hospitalization, with the majority in the AIDS stage (63%). The median overall cost of hospitalizations was US$1509 (25th and 75th percentiles: US$711–US$3254), being even higher in patients with AIDS and as the CD4 T lymphocyte count decreased. The cost derived from the medical care of PLHIV increases as the clinical control of the disease worsens, and it is a key indicator of the impact of the strategies implemented for the timely identification of the infection and subsequent management of the disease.

The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 1263-1297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi ◽  
Taha Chaiechi ◽  
ABM Rabiul Alam Beg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Peak Load ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
The Impact

This study estimates the short- and long-term impacts of climate change on electricity demand in Australia. We used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with monthly data from 1999 to 2014 for six Australian states and one territory. The results reveal significant variations in electricity demand. We then used long-term coefficients for climatic response to simulate future electricity demand using four scenarios based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our results show a gradual increase in electricity consumption due to warmer temperatures with the possibility of peak demand in winter; however, demand tends to decrease in the middle of the twenty-first century across the RCPs, while the summer peak load increases by the end of the century. Finally, we simulated the impact of policy uncertainty through sensitivity analysis and confirmed the potential benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation.

scholarly journals The Nexus Among Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment in Bhutan

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 94-105
Author(s):  
Ugyen Tenzin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Employment Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

In order to understand the dynamics of unemployment in Bhutan at a macro-level, this study has explored the association among economic growth, inflation and unemployment from 1998 to 2016. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied to estimate the impact of economic growth and inflation on unemployment. The results of this empirical analysis suggest that economic growth had no impact on the reduction of unemployment rate in Bhutan both in the short and in the long run. In fact, as the economic growth increased, so did the unemployment rate. However, inflation had a negative association with unemployment rate in the short run and a positive association in the long run. In other words, an increase in the employment rate led to an increase in the inflation in the short run. Likewise, if inflation is not monitored or controlled, the uncertainty of inflation can lead to lower investment and lower economic growth, thereby causing unemployment to rise in the long run. This study, therefore, recommends policymakers to take into account the employment elasticity with respect to economic output and focus on sectors, which have more absorptive capacity in engaging the young labour market entrants. JEL: B22, C22, E24, E31

Structural Change, Balance of Payments Constraint, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam

2021 ◽  
pp. 048661342110109
Author(s):  
Woocheol Lee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Income Elasticities ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Technology Products ◽  
Distributed Lag Models ◽  
The Impact

The impact of demand-side factors and rapid structural changes have largely been ignored in explaining the economic growth of Vietnam. This paper employs the multisectoral balance-of-payments constrained economic growth model to capture the influence of structural changes on the exports and economic growth of Vietnam over the period 1997–2016. Based on the estimates for the sectoral income elasticities of demand for exports and imports obtained from autoregressive distributed lag models, this paper argues that it is not relative prices but income that has played a significant role in Vietnam’s economic growth, the income elasticities of demand for exports have grown faster than those of demand for imports, and the weight of exports has significantly moved from primary to high-technology products. JEL Classification: E12, F43, O53

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