scholarly journals Risk management and emergency response for a 300 km2sub-sea level area with a million citizens against extreme storm surge and flood due to the “Super Ise-Bay Typhoon”

Author(s):  
T. Tsujimoto ◽  
M. Igarashi ◽  
K. Kobayashi
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 1024
Author(s):  
Masaki Nimura ◽  
Shuzo Nishida ◽  
Koji Kawasaki ◽  
Tomokazu Murakami ◽  
Shinya Shimokawa

Global warming is feared to cause sea-level rise and intensification of typhoons, and these changes will lead to an increase in storm surge levels. For that reason, it is essential to predict the inundation areas for the maximum potential typhoon and evaluate the disaster mitigation effect of seawalls. In this study, we analyzed storm surge inundation of the inner part of Ise Bay (coast of Aichi and Mie Prefecture, Japan) due to the maximum potential typhoon in the future climate with global warming. In the analysis, a high-resolution topographical model was constructed considering buildings’ shape and arrangement and investigated the inundation process inside the seawall in detail. The results showed that buildings strongly influence the storm surge inundation process inside the seawall, and a high-velocity current is generated in some areas. It is also found that closing the seawall door delays the inundation inside the seawall, but the evacuation after inundation is more difficult under the seawall doors closed condition than opened condition when the high tide level exceeds the seawall.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Outten ◽  
Tobias Wolf ◽  
Fabio Mangini ◽  
Linling Chen ◽  
Jan Even Nilsen

<p>Flooding events pose an ever increasing threat in a warming world. Safety standards for buildings and infrastructure are often based on past observations of local sea level, as measured by tide gauges and remote sensing systems. However, sea level at a given location is not an isolated property and is determined by a combination of factors. For extreme sea level events, there are two factors that of particular importance: the astronomical tide, and storm surges. In this work, we analysed measurements from 21 stations in the Norwegian tide gauge network, disentangling the factors contributing to the previously observed extreme events.</p><p>By separating the observed sea level into a tidal component and a storm surge component, we found that in many cases the observed extreme sea level events were caused by an extreme storm surge coinciding with only a moderate tide, or an extreme tide coinciding with only a moderate storm surge. This raises the possibility of a ‘super-flooding’ event, where an extreme storm surge may occur with an extreme tide. Even in the short records examined in this study (less than 40 years), the combination of the highest observed tide with the highest observed storm surge would greatly exceed in the 1000-year return level event at many locations. This is often used as a national standard for critical infrastructure.  </p><p>We further complement the work by analysing the storm tracks close to Norway. By relating the storm surges with the individual storms giving rise to them, we found that many storm surges during extreme sea level events were related to cyclones of only moderate intensity. Combined with the previous findings, this work suggests the need to assess extreme sea level return values for future construction and infrastructure planning as the result of a multi-variable system. This is in contrast to basing such assessments on the single variable of observed sea level as it is done today.</p>


Risk Analysis ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 153-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Perry C. Oddo ◽  
Ben S. Lee ◽  
Gregory G. Garner ◽  
Vivek Srikrishnan ◽  
Patrick M. Reed ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Vladimir Fomin ◽  
Vladimir Fomin ◽  
Dmitrii Alekseev ◽  
Dmitrii Alekseev ◽  
Dmitrii Lazorenko ◽  
...  

Storm surges and wind waves are ones of the most important hydrological characteristics, which determine dynamics of the Sea of Azov. Extreme storm surges in Taganrog Bay and flooding in the Don Delta can be formed under the effect of strong western winds. In this work the sea level oscillations and wind waves in the Taganrog Bay were simulated by means of the coupled SWAN+ADCIRC numerical model, taking into account the flooding and drying mechanisms. The calculations were carried out on an unstructured mesh with high resolution. The wind and atmospheric pressure fields for the extreme storm from 20 to 28 of September, 2014 obtained from WRF regional atmospheric model were used as forcing. The analysis of simulation results showed the following. The western and northern parts of the Don Delta were the most flood-prone during the storm. The size of the flooded area of the Don Delta exceeded 50%. Interaction of storm surge and wind wave accelerated the flooding process, increased the size of the flooded area and led to the intensification of wind waves in the upper of Taganrog Bay due to the general rise of the sea level.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Horsburgh ◽  
Ivan D. Haigh ◽  
Jane Williams ◽  
Michela De Dominicis ◽  
Judith Wolf ◽  
...  

AbstractIn this paper, we show that over the next few decades, the natural variability of mid-latitude storm systems is likely to be a more important driver of coastal extreme sea levels than either mean sea level rise or climatically induced changes to storminess. Due to their episodic nature, the variability of local sea level response, and our short observational record, understanding the natural variability of storm surges is at least as important as understanding projected long-term mean sea level changes due to global warming. Using the December 2013 North Atlantic Storm Xaver as a baseline, we used a meteorological forecast modification tool to create “grey swan” events, whilst maintaining key physical properties of the storm system. Here we define “grey swan” to mean an event which is expected on the grounds of natural variability but is not within the observational record. For each of these synthesised storm events, we simulated storm tides and waves in the North Sea using hydrodynamic models that are routinely used in operational forecasting systems. The grey swan storms produced storm surges that were consistently higher than those experienced during the December 2013 event at all analysed tide gauge locations along the UK east coast. The additional storm surge elevations obtained in our simulations are comparable to high-end projected mean sea level rises for the year 2100 for the European coastline. Our results indicate strongly that mid-latitude storms, capable of generating more extreme storm surges and waves than ever observed, are likely due to natural variability. We confirmed previous observations that more extreme storm surges in semi-enclosed basins can be caused by slowing down the speed of movement of the storm, and we provide a novel explanation in terms of slower storm propagation allowing the dynamical response to approach equilibrium. We did not find any significant changes to maximum wave heights at the coast, with changes largely confined to deeper water. Many other regions of the world experience storm surges driven by mid-latitude weather systems. Our approach could therefore be adopted more widely to identify physically plausible, low probability, potentially catastrophic coastal flood events and to assist with major incident planning.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
James A. Pollard ◽  
Elizabeth K. Christie ◽  
Susan M. Brooks ◽  
Tom Spencer

Gravel barriers represent physiographic, hydrographic, sedimentary, and ecological boundaries between inshore and open marine offshore environments, where they provide numerous important functions. The morphosedimentary features of gravel barriers (e.g., steep, energy reflective form) have led to their characterization as effective coastal defense features during extreme hydrodynamic conditions. Consequently, gravel barriers have often been intensively managed to enhance coastal defense functions. The Blakeney Point Barrier System (BPBS), U.K., is one such example, which offers the opportunity to investigate the impact of alternative management regimes under extreme hydrodynamic conditions. The BPBS was actively re-profiled along its eastern section from the 1950s to the winter of 2005, whilst undergoing no active intervention along its western section. Combining an analysis of remotely sensed elevation datasets with numerical storm surge modeling, this paper finds that interventionist management introduces systemic differences in barrier morphological characteristics. Overly steepened barrier sections experience greater wave run-up extents during storm surge conditions, leading to more extreme morphological changes and landward barrier retreat. Furthermore, while high, steep barriers can be highly effective at preventing landward flooding, in cases where overwashing does occur, the resultant landward overtopping volume is typically higher than would be the case for a relatively lower crested barrier with a lower angled seaward slope. There is a growing preference within coastal risk management for less interventionist management regimes, incorporating natural processes. However, restoring natural processes does not immediately or inevitably result in a reduction in coastal risk. This paper contributes practical insights regarding the time taken for a previously managed barrier to relax to a more natural state, intermediary morphological states, and associated landward water flows during extreme events, all of which should be considered if gravel barriers are to be usefully integrated into broader risk management strategies.


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1559-1571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gael Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave–current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge – up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.


2015 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. I_1513-I_1518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoko SHIBUTANI ◽  
Sota NAKAJO ◽  
Nobuhito MORI ◽  
Sooyoul KIM ◽  
Hajime MASE

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