scholarly journals Early Warning: Much Ado About Nothing?

Refuge ◽  
1996 ◽  
pp. 8-10
Author(s):  
Sharon Ruso

This article provides a critical view of the history of early warning as well as existing early warning efforts. The author scrutinizes the "early earning debate," including what early warning is and who the actors might be. The paper surveys existing efforts on early warning from a critical perspective and raises many questions concerning the institutional obstacles that still need to be addressed before we can arrive at a functional early warning mechanism for the purpose of conflict prevention.

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-119
Author(s):  
Zhang Su

Background: In recent years, sudden deaths of primary and secondary school students caused by sports activities have drawn great attention in education and medical circles. It is necessary for schools to monitor the physical condition of the students in order to reasonably set the duration of their physical activity. At present, the physical condition monitoring instruments used in various hospitals are expensive, bulky, and difficult to operate, and the detection process is complicated. Therefore, existing approaches cannot meet the needs of physical education teachers on campus for detecting the physical condition of students. Methods: This study designs a portable human-physiological-state monitoring and analysis system. Real-time communication between a wearable measurement device and a monitoring device can be ensured by real-time detection of the environment and power control of the transmitted signal. Results: From a theoretical point of view, the larger the number of segments M, the more significantly the reduction of false alarm probability. The simulation results also show this fact. Compared with the conventional early warning mechanism, the probability of a false alarm for the proposed system is lower, and the greater the number of segments, the faster its reaction speed. Conclusion: The portable monitoring system of student physical condition for use in physical education of primary and middle school students proposed in this paper ensures real-time monitoring of the members within the system in an open environment, and further proposes an early warning mechanism for combining multiple vital sign parameters. In addition, the proposed system functions faster; the average early warning time required is only one-quarter of that of the conventional system.


2009 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 339-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Samuel

AbstractThe OSCE's mandate for early warning, conflict prevention, conflict management and post-conflict rehabilitation based on its approach to comprehensive security through its network of field offices is implemented on a daily basis. Constructive relations with a host country are an important factor in their success, yet not always easy to achieve. This article provides a case study of one endeavour to strengthen these relations.


Author(s):  
Ning Huan ◽  
Enjian Yao ◽  
Binbin Li

Recently, surges of passengers caused by large gatherings, temporary traffic control measures, or other abnormal events have frequently occurred in metro systems. From the standpoint of the operation managers, the available information about these outside events is incomplete or delayed. Unlike regular peaks of commuting, those unforeseen surges pose great challenges to emergency organization and safety management. This study aims to assist managers in monitoring passenger flow in an intelligent manner so as to react promptly. Compared with the high cost of deploying multisensors, the widely adopted automated fare collection (AFC) system provides an economical solution for inflow monitoring from the application point of view. In this paper, a comprehensive framework for the early warning mechanism is established, including four major phases: data acquisition, preprocessing, off-line modeling, and on-line detection. For each station, passengers’ tapping-on records are gathered in real time, to be further transformed into a dynamic time series of inflow volumes. Then, a sequence decomposition model is formulated to highlight the anomaly by removing its inherent disturbances. Furthermore, a novel hybrid anomaly detection method is developed to monitor the variation of passenger flow, in which the features of inflow patterns are fully considered. The proposed method is tested by a numerical experiment, along with a real-world case study of Guangzhou metro. The results show that, for most cases, the response time for detection is within 5 min, which makes the surge phenomenon observable at an early stage and reminds managers to make interventions appropriately.


2021 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-101
Author(s):  
Luca Dei Cas ◽  
Maria Luisa Pastore ◽  
Andrea Pavan ◽  
Nicola Petrella

Abstract. In areas located near large rock cliffs, risk reduction by early warning monitoring systems highligts potentiality but also critical issues and limits. The paper examines two rock slope failures that occurred in a short time from each other near inhabited areas in the Italian Alps. The viscous behavior of the rock mass was reconstructed through data processing from ground-based Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR), and elaboration of acceleration and speed curves. Landslides types and underlying complexity associated with rock detachment mechanisms suggest the identification of precautionary alarm thresholds for collapse forecasting. The analysis of financial outlay, both for mitigation works and for monitoring activities, highlight the adequacy and the opportunity to combine passive systems, like embankments or rockfall drapery meshes, with a reliable monitoring network for early warning.


2021 ◽  
pp. 31-53
Author(s):  
Piotr Dobrowolski

The article opens with a statement that dramaturgical creativity, long marginalized by literary studies, has returned to the area of its interest together with its researchers’ use of the achievements of performative and cultural turns. Taking these into account allows us to treat drama as a distinctive literary practice in which the reception of a text is exemplary. As the author claims, with the New Humanities, integrating scattered reading perspectives known to the history of literary studies into the horizons of New Positivity, dramatic studies enrich this standpoint and maintain a critical view making creative use of the antagonism of perspectives, confrontation of attitudes, conflict of qualities or different visions and ideas. The potential tensions revealed in the practice of active reading of a literary text in accordance with the dramatic matrix guarantee the positive effects of each act of engaged reading. The dramatization of tradition is a specific field of critical dialogue between the reader and the existing literary tradition. Three dramatic works by Jan Czapliński are indicated as examples of mediators for this dialogue. The work of this playwright presents and suggests a critical reading of the characters and works of Gabriela Zapolska, Henryk Sienkiewicz and Adam Mickiewicz, leading to the emancipation of their works that is situated beyond the framework of the discursively created, existing canon of contemporary Polish literature and culture. A critical view enriches and updates the canon. Dramatization, which allows the revaluation of existing values, appears as the basic category of contemporary art – revealing existing, usually ineffable conflicts and using them to build new, positive values.


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