Cutoff Threshold Decisions for Classification Algorithms with Risk Aversion

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea C. Hupman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Classification Algorithm ◽  
Classification Algorithms ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Optimal Cutoff ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Bayes Algorithm ◽  
Cutoff Threshold

Classification algorithms predict the class membership of an unknown record. Methods such as logistic regression or the naïve Bayes algorithm produce a score related to the likelihood that a record belongs to a particular class. A cutoff threshold is then defined to delineate the prediction of one class over another. This paper derives analytic results for the selection of an optimal cutoff threshold for a classification algorithm that is used to inform a two-action decision in the cases of risk aversion and risk neutrality. The results provide insight to how the optimal cutoff thresholds relate to the associated costs and the sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm for both the risk neutral and risk averse decision makers. The optimal risk averse threshold is not reliably above or below the optimal risk neutral threshold, but the relation depends on the parameters of a particular application. The results further show the risk averse optimal threshold is insensitive to the size of the data set or the magnitude of the costs, but instead is sensitive to the proportion of positive records in the data and the ratio of costs. Numeric examples and sensitivity analysis derive further insight. Results show the percent value gap from a misspecified risk attitude increases as the specificity of the classification algorithm decreases.

scholarly journals OPTIMAL OUTCOME SHARING WITH A CONSORTIUM OF CONTRACTORS

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 655-665 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mahdi HOSSEINIAN ◽  
David G. CARMICHAEL
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Optimal Outcome ◽  
Original Solution ◽  
Project Outcome ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Current Practices

Where a consortium of contractors is involved, there exist no guidelines in the literature on what the outcome sharing arrangement should be. The paper addresses this shortfall. It derives the optimal outcome sharing arrangement for risk-neutral and risk-averse contractors within the consortium, and between the consortium and a risk-neutral owner. Practitioners were engaged in a designed exercise in order to validate the paper’s propositions. The paper demonstrates that, at the optimum: the proportion of outcome sharing among contractors with the same risk-attitude should reflect the levels of their contributions; the proportion of outcome sharing among contractors with the same level of contribu­tion should be lower for contractors with higher levels of risk aversion; a consortium of risk-neutral contractors should receive or bear any favourable or adverse project outcome respectively; and the proportion of outcome sharing to a con­sortium of risk-averse contractors should reduce, and the fixed component of the consortium fee should increase, when the contractors become more risk-averse or the level of the project outcome uncertainty increases. The paper proposes an original solution to the optimal sharing problem in contracts with a consortium of contractors, thereby contributing to current practices in contracts management.

scholarly journals An Intrusion Detection Model based on Hybrid Classification algorithm

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. 03027
Author(s):  
Manfu Ma ◽  
Wei Deng ◽  
Hongtong Liu ◽  
Xinmiao Yun
Keyword(s):  
Intrusion Detection ◽  
Detection Rate ◽  
Naive Bayes ◽  
Naïve Bayes ◽  
Classification Algorithm ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Detection Model ◽  
Performance Requirements ◽  
Hybrid Classification ◽  
Bayes Algorithm

Due to using the single classification algorithm can not meet the performance requirements of intrusion detection, combined with the numerical value of KNN and the advantage of naive Bayes in the structure of data, an intrusion detection model KNN-NB based on KNN and Naive Bayes hybrid classification algorithm is proposed. The model first preprocesses the NSL-KDD intrusion detection data set. And then by exploiting the advantages of KNN algorithm in data values, the model calculates the distance between the samples according to the feature items and selects the K sample data with the smallest distance. Finally, by naive Bayes to get the final result. The experimental results on the NSL-KDD dataset show that the KNN-NB algorithm can meet the requirement of balanced performance than the traditional KNN and Naive Bayes algorithm in term of accuracy, sensitivity, false detection rate, specificity, and missed detection rate.

scholarly journals Choices in the 11–20 Game: The Role of Risk Aversion

Games ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
King Li ◽  
Kang Rong
Keyword(s):  
Nash Equilibrium ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Lab Experiment ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Beauty Contest ◽  
Game Players

Arad and Rubinstein (2012, AER) proposed the 11–20 money request game as an alternative to the P beauty contest game for measuring the depth of thinking. In this paper, we show theoretically that in the Nash equilibrium of the 11–20 game players are more likely to choose high numbers if they are risk-averse rather than risk neutral. Hence, the depth of thinking measured in the 11–20 game is biased by risk aversion. Based on a lab experiment, we confirm this hypothesis empirically.

scholarly journals Crowded out: Heterogeneity in risk attitudes among poor households in the US

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arianna Galliera ◽  
E. Elisabet Rutström
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Household Head ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Household Size ◽  
Household Composition ◽  
Risk Attitudes ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Poor Households

AbstractNot much is known about the heterogeneity of risk attitudes among poor households in rich countries. This paper provides estimates from a unique data set collected among the urban poor in Atlanta, Georgia. The data set includes lab-in-the-field experiments on the relationship between risk attitudes and several household characteristics. Apart from looking at income, wealth, and education, we are particularly interested in household composition as it captures the number and kind of people who are dependant on the income of the household head. Heads of households who are less risk averse may be willing to take on the extra risk from smaller resource margins resulting from additional dependants, implying a negative relationship between household size and risk aversion. However, if the size of the household is a result of exogenous forces some heads of households may become more risk averse with more dependants. Household size can also reflect a risk management choice that involves adding non-dependant members who can provide resources and risk sharing. However, this possibility is limited to homes that are not already too crowded. We find that household size correlates positively with the risk aversion of the head, but with a large proportion of children the correlation is strongly dampened. However, this negative effect of children is conditional on the home not already being crowded. These heterogeneous findings have implications for the design of new insurance, savings, and credit programs where risk attitudes are important to the decisions to adopt.

scholarly journals An optimal time incentive/disincentive -based compensation in contracts with multiple agents

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 35-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mahdi Hosseinian
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Completion Time ◽  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Theoretical Development ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Multiple Agents ◽  
Time Saving ◽  
Project Completion

This paper establishes an optimal time incentive/disincentive-based compensation in a contract between a principal and a team of agents. The establishment is based on solving an optimization problem. In order to validate the paper's theoretical development practitioners were engaged in a designed exercise. The paper demonstrates that, at the optimum: the proportion of time incentive/disincentive compensation among agents with the same risk-attitude should reflect the levels of their contributions; the proportion of time incentive/disincentive among agents with the same level of contribution should be lowered for agents with higher levels of risk aversion; and the proportion of time incentive/disincentive to a team of risk averse agents should reduce, and the fixed component of the team fee should increase, when the agents in the team become more risk-averse or the level of the uncertainty in project completion time increases. The paper’s outcome provides guidance to those involved in contracts design for choosing the best way to reward (penalise) multiple agents, form a team, and allow for any time saving (overrun) through the terms of a contract.    

scholarly journals Why and How Does a Supplier Choose Factoring Finance?

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Chunying Tian ◽  
Dongyan Chen ◽  
Zhaobo Chen ◽  
Ding Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Trade Credit ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Decision Models ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Financial Benefit ◽  
Risk Neutral

Suppliers offering trade credit to the downstream retailers have to face many problems, such as receivables management, capital occupancy, and buyer’s credit risk. Many of them choose factoring finance to solve those problems simultaneously. This paper develops several supply chain decision models to show the benefits a supplier can obtain from the main functions of factoring and how he should choose between recourse factoring and nonrecourse factoring. In particular, we identify the conditions on which factoring may bring benefits (including financial benefit, guarantee benefit, and receivables management benefit) to the supplier. The supplier’s choice between recourse and nonrecourse factoring relies on his risk attitude. Given that the supplier is risk-neutral and the factoring fees are acceptable, recourse factoring is preferred when the factoring finance ratio is relatively high; otherwise, nonrecourse factoring is preferred. However, if the supplier is risk-averse, his preference for the two factoring schemes under different finance ratios may change when the risk constraints become stricter. If the target profit is lower than a certain level, the supplier’s financial choice will switch from recourse factoring to nonrecourse factoring in the case finance ratio is relatively low; otherwise, his financial choice switches from nonrecourse factoring to recourse factoring in the case finance ratio is relatively high.

scholarly journals Prediction of Student Performance using Hybrid Classification

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 6566-6570
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Academic Performance ◽  
Student Performance ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Educational Data Mining ◽  
Classification Algorithm ◽  
Classification Algorithms ◽  
Data Types ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Hybrid Classification

Data mining technologies allow collection, storage and processing huge amounts of data and carrying a large variety of data types and samples. Predicting academic performance of student is the most successive research in this era. Previous research work researchers are used different classification algorithm to predict the student performance. There is lot of research work to be taken in the field of educational data mining and big data in education to increase the accuracy of the classification algorithm and predict the academic performance of student. In this research work we used hybrid classification algorithm for predicting the performance of students. Two Popular classification algorithms ID3 and J48 were applied on the data set. To make hybrid classification voting technique is applied using weka machine learning tool. In this work we tested how the hybrid algorithm accurately predicts the student data set. To check the predicted result classification accuracy was computed. This hybrid classification algorithm gives accuracy with 62.67%.

scholarly journals The development of risk aversion and prudence in Chinese children and adolescents

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timo Heinrich ◽  
Jason Shachat
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Children And Adolescents ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Choice Task ◽  
Chinese Children ◽  
Binary Choice ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Chinese Children And Adolescents

AbstractThis study experimentally evaluates the risk preferences of children and adolescents living in an urban Chinese environment. We use a simple binary choice task that tests risk aversion, as well as prudence. This is the first test for prudence in children and adolescents. Our results reveal that subjects from grades 5 to 11 (10 to 17 years) make mostly risk-averse and prudent choices. The choices of 3rd graders (8 to 9 years) do not differ statistically from risk neutral benchmarks, but at the same time they make mostly prudent choices. We also find evidence for a transmission of risk preferences. There is positive correlation between all children’s and their parents’ tendency to make risk-averse choices. There is also positive correlation between girls’ and their parents’ tendency to make prudent choices.

Risk Aversion, the Hand Rule, and Comparison between Strict Liability and the Negligence Rule

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kangoh Lee
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Strict Liability ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Liability Rules ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Negligence Rule

AbstractOne of the most important propositions in the economics of liability rules states that strict liability and the negligence rule are equivalent and first-best efficient if the standard of due care is set according to the Hand rule. This proposition hinges on the assumption that individuals are risk neutral. This paper considers this proposition with risk-averse individuals, and demonstrates that the proposition does not extend. In particular, the two liability rules are not equivalent, and the analysis compares the two liability rules in terms of utilitarian social welfare.

scholarly journals Risk-Aversion for Negative Health Outcomes May Promote Individual Compliance to Containment Measures in Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Cerami ◽  
Caterina Galandra ◽  
Gaia Chiara Santi ◽  
Alessandra Dodich ◽  
Stefano Francesco Cappa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Stressful Life Events ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Italian Population ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Protection Strategies ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Negative Health Outcomes

First-person experience of stressful life events can change individuals' risk attitudes, driving to increased or decreased risk perception. This shift to more risk-averse or risk-loving behaviors may find a correlate in the individual psycho-socio-emotional profile. To this purpose, we aimed to estimate the relationship between differences in risk-taking attitudes toward possible negative health outcomes and psycho-socio-emotional dimensions modulating the experience of life-threatening situations, in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. In March 2020, we launched the PsyCovid Study (https://wprn.org/item/428452) to assess psycho-socio-emotional changes due to Covid-19 pandemic in the Italian population. Additionally, we distributed to 130 participants the Covid-19 Risk Task, including monetary and health-related stimuli, estimating a measure of risk-aversion toward health and classifying participants on the basis of their risk-attitude profiles. The set of psycho-socio-emotional variables was reduced to three PCA components: Proactivity, Isolation, Inactivity. The individual degree of risk-aversion toward negative health outcomes was directly related to Proactivity, encasing empathic, social support and positive coping strategies, which may prompt individuals to put in place self-protection strategies toward possible negative health consequences. These findings indicate that a risk-averse profile toward possible negative health outcomes may be associated to higher levels of individual prosocial and proactive dispositions, possibly making individuals' more compliant with the social and hygienic guidelines and, thus, reducing their exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 infection.

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