The Demographic Transition

1984 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 531-552 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansley J. Coale
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Religious Traditions ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Industrial State ◽  
Simple Link

Demographic transition is a set of changes in reproductive behaviour that are experienced as a society is transformed from a traditional pre-industrial state to a highly developed, modernized structure. The transformation is the substitution of slow growth achieved with low fertility and mortality for slow growth maintained with relatively high fertility and mortality rates. Contrary to early descriptions of the transition, fertility in pre-modem societies was well below the maximum that might be attained. However, it was kept at moderate levels by customs (such as late marriage or prolonged breast-feeding) not related to the number of children already born. Fertility has been reduced during the demographic transition by the adoption of contraception as a deliberate means of avoiding additional births. An extensive study of the transition in Europe shows the absence of a simple link of fertility with education, proportion urban, infant mortality and other aspects of development. It also suggests the importance of such cultural factors as common customs associated with a common language, and the strength of religious traditions. Sufficient modernization nevertheless seems always to bring the transition to low fertility and mortality.

scholarly journals Fertility dynamics and reproductive behaviour of men and women entering into marriage in the Republic of Bashkortostan

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-75
Author(s):  
Yana A. Skryabina
Keyword(s):  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Expected Number ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Reproductive Intentions ◽  
Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽  
The Republic

The article is devoted to the analysis of the fertility rate dynamics in the Republic of Bashkortostan and the study of the reproductive behaviour of the population entering into a registered marriage. The author examines the crude and total fertility rates, the net population reproduction rate, the total fertility rate by the order of births, as well as age-specific fertility rates. In addition, basing on the data of population surveys, the author regards reproductive intentions of citizens applying for marriage in the registry office, as well as reasons that may prevent them from having a child. The study shows that the Republic of Bashkortostan is characterized by a low fertility rate; the generation of children does not replace the generation of parents. The reproductive intentions of the respondents measured by the desired and expected number of children correspond to the small (two-child) family model. Among the main reasons that can prevent the birth of a child, the first two are financial and housing difficulties, and third is the desire to live for oneself for a while.

scholarly journals Population dynamics and economic development

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 0
Author(s):  
Andrea Caravaggio ◽  
Luca Gori ◽  
Mauro Sodini
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Optimal Growth ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Time Optimal ◽  
Per Capita

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>This research develops a continuous-time optimal growth model that accounts for population dynamics resembling the historical pattern of the demographic transition. The Ramsey model then becomes able to generate multiple determinate or indeterminate stationary equilibria and explain the process of the transition from a state with high fertility and low income per capita to a state with low fertility and high income per capita. The article also investigates the emergence of damped or persistent cyclical dynamics.</p>

scholarly journals Socio-economic Development, Population Policies, and Fertility Decline in Muslim Countries

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (4II) ◽  
pp. 773-789
Author(s):  
Mehtab S. Karim
Keyword(s):  
Slow Growth ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Muslim Population ◽  
Population Policies ◽  
Muslim Countries ◽  
Recent Estimate ◽  
Muslim Majority

As societies transform from a predominantly traditional to a predominantly modern system, they tend to experience considerable demographic changes. Coale (1984) notes that this “transformation is the substitution of slow growth achieved with low fertility and mortality for slow growth maintained with relatively high fertility and mortality rates”. Demographic transition in Muslim countries is a fairly late phenomenon as discussed in the next section. Most of these countries have followed a similar trend as by many other developing countries. According to the most recent estimate provided by The Economist [September (2003)], the number of Muslims was 1.5 billion in 2003, of which about 97 percent were living in Asian and African countries. About one fourth were concentrated in South Asia and another one-fifth in the Middle-East and North Africa (Arab countries). Figure 1 provides the breakdown of Muslim population living in different regions of the World. Percentage of population in major Muslim countries and their estimated number at the beginning of the 21st Century are given in Table 1. Of 47 Muslim-majority countries, where more than 50 percent of the total population is reported to be followers of Islam,1 36 have populations that are more than 85 percent Muslims, while only seven of them contain less than 70 percent Muslims. However, the six largest Muslim-majority countries (in order, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Turkey and Egypt) contain about two-thirds of the

scholarly journals Two centuries of demographic change in Canada

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Barry Edmonston
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Demographic Change ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Negative Population

One key aspect of the demographic transition—the shift from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility is a major change in the population’s age distribution from a pyramid-shaped young age structure to a pillar-shaped old age structure. This paper discusses two demographic processes affected by changes in age structure. First, there are effects on vital rates, with important differences in the observed crude rates and the implied intrinsic vital rates. Second, changes in age structure influence population momentum. More recently, demographers have noted that older age distributions associated with fertility levels below replacement have negative population momentum. Although the demographic transition has been well-described for many countries, demographers have seldom analyzed intrinsic vital rates and population momentum over time, which are dynamic processes affected by changes in the population age structure and which, in turn, influence future changes in population growth and size. This paper uses new data and methods to analyze intrinsic vital rates and population momentum across two centuries of demographic change in Canada 

scholarly journals DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES IN MALAYSIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanan Elsawahli ◽  
Faizah Ahmad ◽  
Azlan Shah Ali
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Successful Aging ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Development Goals

As a developing country, Malaysia is undergoing a demographic transition from a high fertility and mortality rural society towards an industrialised society with low fertility and mortality rates. This transition involved an increased growth rate of elderly population. The number of elderly has risen from 1.4 million in 2000 to 2.1 million in 2010 and is projected to be 3.4 million by 2020. A population aging needs to accumulate assets in order to achieve sustainable development goals. This represents the main challenge to planners and policy makers in terms of designing aged-friendly neighbourhoods to meet the elderly needs. This paper aims to review the population aging trends and policy framework available for the elderly in Malaysia. The paper further discusses the sustainable neighbourhoods related to active aging. The paper concludes by identifying fundamental gaps in both knowledge and policy associated with planning for the aging population and successful aging.

scholarly journals Heterogeneity in ‘High Fertility’ Societies. Insights From Compositional Demography

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 106-111
Author(s):  
Hilde Bras
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Farm Workers ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Reproductive Behaviors ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Reproductive Management ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Different Characteristics

Demographic transition theory has been conducive to a rather dichotomous view of global fertility: traditional versus modern, high versus low fertility. The knowledge that high fertility could be achieved by subpopulations with different characteristics and reproductive behaviors somehow vanished from (historical) demographers' attention. This study unpacks heterogeneity in a 'high fertility' society, i.e. 19th-century Zeeland, the Netherlands. Sequence and cluster analysis were employed to distinguish groups with disparate reproductive trajectories with data from Genlias/LINKS including 15,014 full birth histories and 87,204 observed live births over the period 1811–1911. Multilevel binomial logistic regression models of membership of the two discerned high fertility subgroups were then estimated. The 'Traditional 1' subpopulation, with 10.5 children per woman on average, was composed of skilled, unskilled, and farm workers living in rural areas. Couples married early and were characterized by large spousal age gaps. The 'Traditional 2' subpopulation had on average 7.2 children per woman, more often lived in towns, married significantly later, and had more equal gender relations. Compositional demography, revealing subpopulations with divergent cultures of marital self-restraint and reproductive management, not only nuances previous (historical) demographic findings, but may well offer more tools to develop family planning and reproductive health policies than the demographic transition model does.

6. The demographic transition—centrepiece of demography

2018 ◽  
pp. 55-63
Author(s):  
Sarah Harper
Keyword(s):  
High Mortality ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Causal Models ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
The South ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

The demographic transition is regarded as a centrepiece of demography. It is the series of changes that occur as countries evolve from a stable state of high mortality and high fertility to one of low mortality and low fertility, but its timing and drivers are strongly debated. ‘The demographic transition—centrepiece of demography’ explains that demographic transition theory can be divided into three broad components: first, the changes over time in mortality and fertility, based on clear data and therefore generally uncontested; second, and the most controversial, the construction of causal models to explain the timing, pace, and drivers of these changes; and third, the attempt to predict future changes especially for countries of the South.

Fertility and Adaptation: Indochinese Refugees in the United States

1986 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 428-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruben G. Rumbaut ◽  
John R. Weeks
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Background ◽  
The United States ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Refugee Families ◽  
Migration History ◽  
Indochinese Refugees

Levels of fertility among Indochinese refugees in the United States are explored in the context of a highly compressed demographic transition implicit in the move from high-fertility Southeast Asian societies to a low-fertility resettlement region. A theoretical model is developed to explain the effect on refugee fertility of social background characteristics, migration history and patterns of adaptation to a different economic and cultural environment controlling for marital history and length of residence in the U.S. Multiple regression techniques are used to test the model which was found to account for nearly half of the variation in refugee fertility levels in the United States. Fertility is much higher for all Indochinese ethnic groups than it is for American women; the number of children in refugee families is in turn a major determinant of welfare dependency. Adjustments for rates of natural increase indicate a total 1985 Indochinese population of over one million, making it one of the largest Asian-origin populations in the United States. This remarkable phenomenon has occurred in less than a decade. Implications of these findings for public policy are discussed, focusing on family planning, maternal and child health needs, and the attainment of refugee economic self-sufficiency.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES IN MALAYSIA

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanan Elsawahli ◽  
Faizah Ahmad ◽  
Azlan Shah Ali
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Successful Aging ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Development Goals

As a developing country, Malaysia is undergoing a demographic transition from a high fertility and mortality rural society towards an industrialised society with low fertility and mortality rates. This transition involved an increased growth rate of elderly population. The number of elderly has risen from 1.4 million in 2000 to 2.1 million in 2010 and is projected to be 3.4 million by 2020. A population aging needs to accumulate assets in order to achieve sustainable development goals. This represents the main challenge to planners and policy makers in terms of designing aged-friendly neighbourhoods to meet the elderly needs. This paper aims to review the population aging trends and policy framework available for the elderly in Malaysia. The paper further discusses the sustainable neighbourhoods related to active aging. The paper concludes by identifying fundamental gaps in both knowledge and policy associated with planning for the aging population and successful aging.

scholarly journals Understanding the gender dimension of low fertility: Employment and childbearing in Europe

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 5-5
Author(s):  
Ankica Sobot
Keyword(s):  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Female Employment ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Employment Rate ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Raising Children ◽  
Employment Rates ◽  
The Impact

In this text, the gender dimension of low fertility is considered on the basis of the relevant literature and statistical data regarding the impact of employment on reproductive behaviour in postmodern societies. A review of fertility rates and employment rates of women with young children from 2010 onwards leads to several interesting observations. For example, during the period of study, the birth rate in Hungary increased, while it decreased in Finland by 0.4 children per woman. The most stable and relatively high fertility rates are observed in France and Sweden. At the same time, the employment rate of women with children aged three to five grew in Hungary, but the employment rate of those with children under the age of three was extremely low. In countries with higher fertility, the lowest employment rates for women with children under the age of three are in Finland and France, but they are about four times higher than the rate in Hungary. During the observed period, the employment of mothers remained stable at a relatively high level in Sweden, Norway, and the Netherlands, without differences in female employment according to the age of their children. The fertility rates in these countries are relatively high. The results of empirical research in European countries suggest that the gender dimension of low fertility cannot be understood outside the specific social context, nor without considering the conditions at the micro level. Central to this consideration is the link between low fertility and women?s employment, as raising children is still gender-specific to an extent. However, men can participate in parenthood not only in terms of their reproductive behaviour, but also their right to participate in raising children. In addition, this text identifies negative perceptions of employment that refer to the modalities of worklife balance and the uncertainty regarding female and male employment. Both aspects produce certain effects on the socioeconomic position of the family, which can influence decisions relating to parenthood and the number of children the parents would like to have. In terms of taking action on low birth rates, it could be concluded that endangering families? economic status and reproducing patriarchal gender regimes are not favourable outcomes. This article provides a framework for more concrete research into these issues in Serbian society.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document