scholarly journals Application of Z-Numbers Based Approach to Project Risks Assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 67 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.M. Nuriyev
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Uncertain Variable ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Decision Making Problem ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Risks Assessment

At every phase of the project management process various risks originate owing to occurrence of uncertain events. In this research, we are analyzing potentialities of the Z-numbers in improving the quality of risk assessment. Risk assessment uses probability theory, theory of possibilities, fuzzy approach, Z-number based approach etc. Combined risk measure based on probability and consequence is calculated by applying the disjoint events probability formula or as a product of events. Reliability of relevant information unaccounted in this approach and this circumstance limits the descriptive power of the approach. Suggested by L. Zade a bi-component Z-number Z = (A, B) represents in a unified way a restriction on the values of the uncertain variable (A) and its certainty (B) and allows to take into account the reliability of information. Prediction identical to (High, Very Sure) can be formalized as a Z- evaluation “X is Z (A,B)”, where X is random variable of Risk Likelihood, A and B are fuzzy sets, describing soft constraints on a risk likelihood and a partial reliability, respectively. Usually, A and B are sense-based and in effect are imprecise.Z-number describes a probability of threat as: Likelihood =Z1(High,Very Sure),where A is expressed by linguistic terms High, Medium, Low, and B is expressed by terms Very Sure, Sure and so on. Similarly, Сonsequence measure is described as Сonsequence measure = Z2 (Low, Sure).Risk levels (Z12) is calculated as the product of the likelihood (Z1) and consequence measures (Z2).Effectiveness of the approach illustrated by examples. A general and computationally effective approach suggested to computation with Z-numbers allows using Z-information for the solving decision-making problem which can be utilized for risk factors estimation.. Application of the Z-number based approach for a project risks assessment increases adequacy of the risks representation due to better approximation of the combined effects

scholarly journals Application of Z-Numbers Based Approach to Project Risks Assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 67 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.M. Nuriyev
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Uncertain Variable ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Decision Making Problem ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Risks Assessment

At every phase of the project management process various risks originate owing to occurrence of uncertain events. In this research, we are analyzing potentialities of the Z-numbers in improving the quality of risk assessment. Risk assessment uses probability theory, theory of possibilities, fuzzy approach, Z-number based approach etc. Combined risk measure based on probability and consequence is calculated by applying the disjoint events probability formula or as a product of events. Reliability of relevant information unaccounted in this approach and this circumstance limits the descriptive power of the approach. Suggested by L. Zade a bi-component Z-number Z = (A, B) represents in a unified way a restriction on the values of the uncertain variable (A) and its certainty (B) and allows to take into account the reliability of information. Prediction identical to (High, Very Sure) can be formalized as a Z- evaluation “X is Z (A,B)”, where X is random variable of Risk Likelihood, A and B are fuzzy sets, describing soft constraints on a risk likelihood and a partial reliability, respectively. Usually, A and B are sense-based and in effect are imprecise.Z-number describes a probability of threat as: Likelihood =Z1(High,Very Sure),where A is expressed by linguistic terms High, Medium, Low, and B is expressed by terms Very Sure, Sure and so on. Similarly, Сonsequence measure is described as Сonsequence measure = Z2 (Low, Sure).Risk levels (Z12) is calculated as the product of the likelihood (Z1) and consequence measures (Z2).Effectiveness of the approach illustrated by examples. A general and computationally effective approach suggested to computation with Z-numbers allows using Z-information for the solving decision-making problem which can be utilized for risk factors estimation.. Application of the Z-number based approach for a project risks assessment increases adequacy of the risks representation due to better approximation of the combined effects

Fuzzy Quantitative and Semi-Qualitative Risk Assessment in Projects

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-30
Author(s):  
Mohamamd Abdolshah
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Preventive Method ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Risks Assessment ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Sets Theory

Before initiating a project, risks assessment, is a process that its importance has felt in past two decades and has taken a position in project activities. Project's managers apply risk assessment as a preventive method for highly possible risks having an unfavorable influence on project objectives. Risk assessment has implemented in three ways: qualitative, semi-qualitative (semi-qualitative) and quantitative. In this paper, the author reviews quantitative and semi-qualitative risk assessment methods in associated with fuzzy sets theory (FST). Moreover, considering three steps of risk assessment process, namely: definition and measurement of parameters, fuzzy inference and defuzzification, the author classified presented articles into three groups of giving opinion methods, assessment methods and defuzzification methods. It is avoided mentioning articles with same assessment methods in this paper. Although giving opinion methods and defuzzification methods have the potential to be worked on, late risk assessment surveys, demonstrate increasing attempt on developing comprehension and reality adjustment in project risk assessment methodologies.

Fuzzy Quantitative and Semi-Qualitative Risk Assessment in Projects

2018 ◽  
pp. 2035-2046
Author(s):  
Mohamamd Abdolshah
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Preventive Method ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Risks Assessment ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Sets Theory

Before initiating a project, risks assessment, is a process that its importance has felt in past two decades and has taken a position in project activities. Project's managers apply risk assessment as a preventive method for highly possible risks having an unfavorable influence on project objectives. Risk assessment has implemented in three ways: qualitative, semi-qualitative (semi-qualitative) and quantitative. In this paper, the author reviews quantitative and semi-qualitative risk assessment methods in associated with fuzzy sets theory (FST). Moreover, considering three steps of risk assessment process, namely: definition and measurement of parameters, fuzzy inference and defuzzification, the author classified presented articles into three groups of giving opinion methods, assessment methods and defuzzification methods. It is avoided mentioning articles with same assessment methods in this paper. Although giving opinion methods and defuzzification methods have the potential to be worked on, late risk assessment surveys, demonstrate increasing attempt on developing comprehension and reality adjustment in project risk assessment methodologies.

scholarly journals Risks to health of the population of the nonindustrial city from quality of atmospheric air

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 ◽  
pp. 02009
Author(s):  
I. Abdikadirova ◽  
B. Zasorin ◽  
L. Yermukhanova ◽  
V. Sabyrakhmetova ◽  
A. Zhexenova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Nitrogen Oxides ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
West Kazakhstan ◽  
Total Hydrocarbons ◽  
The City

Risk assessment to public health living in the environmental problems is of great importance for humans today. However, the main attention is paid to major industrial centers, while for cities not having developed industries such studies are rare. The study of the intensity and structure of chemical air pollution was conducted to determine the risk levels for human health from effects of the chemical air pollution in residential areas of Aktau city (West Kazakhstan). Method of retrospective analysis of emissions into the atmosphere was used, and damage to health was determined in accordance with the risk assessment procedure. We take into account the major pollutants, the city being in the air basin - sulfur dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, ammonia and total hydrocarbons. The main threat to children's health is caused by common hydrocarbons (88%), nitrogen oxides (5%), and ammonia (3%). The estimated cancer risk is defined at the level of 10-3 - 10-4, it corresponds to the limits and requires regular monitoring.

scholarly journals Identification of the Tourism Risks for Z-Value Based Risk Assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Aziz M. Nuriyev
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Project Approach ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Risks Assessment ◽  
Country Specific

The growing importance of the tourism sector to the global economy contributes to the increase of research in tourism risks assessment. In view of this tendency, the results of research in the field of the risk analysis on tourists’ travels in various countries during the last decades have been analyzed. Commonly used in these studies statistical methods allow to reveal and identify country-specific tourism risks and threats. But it is necessary to underline that relevant statistical data on risks are available not in all cases and countries. Moreover, in most cases, the reliability of the information available is questionable. In order to improve the reliability and quality of the tourist risk assessment, it is proposed to consider tourist travel as a project. The proposed project approach to tourist risk analysis provides an opportunity to go beyond assessment based on available country-specific inferior statistical data and allows to develop a more flexible and versatile method for risk evaluation. Common risk factors and sub-factors for tourists were identified for further risk assessment using suggested by L. Zadeh Z-number. A bi-component Z-number Z = (A, B) with perception-based and imprecise parts A and B, allows taking into account the reliability of the information. Risk experts deal with the prediction like this one “very likely that the level of threat N is medium” or “extremely likely that this factor is very important”. This prediction can be formalized as a Z-number based evaluation and a pack of Z-valuations is considered as Z-information. Experts evaluate identified risk factors and sub-factors and their importance weight using Z-numbers.

scholarly journals Method for choosing a scheme of placing navigation signs on a section of inland waterways for navigating a vessel with a given navigation risk value

2021 ◽  
Vol 258 ◽  
pp. 02003
Author(s):  
Vladimir Karetnikov ◽  
Denis Milyakov ◽  
Andrey Prokhorenkov ◽  
Konstantin Efimov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Stochastic Methods ◽  
International Project ◽  
Distribution Law ◽  
Inland Waterways ◽  
Neva River

This paper is devoted to the method of choosing a scheme for placing navigation signs on sections of inland waterways to ensure the navigation of vessels with a given level of navigation risks. The methods used are known from the theory of probability and mathematical statistics for the assessment of navigation risks, which is proposed to be performed by stochastic methods, estimating the dis-placement of the center of the vessel's size and the variability of the maneuvering lane. It is shown that according to the results of mathematical modeling of the controlled movement of the vessel along the difficult for navigation section “Ivanovskie Porogi” on the Neva river, these navigation parameters are subject to the normal distribution law. This made it possible to reduce the problem of risk assessment to the problem of finding the probability of a random variable hitting the designated lane. A formal assessment of the navigational risk of navigating a vessel through a section that is difficult for navigation was carried out, on the ba-sis of which it is possible to judge the quality of the vessel's control and the prob-ability of the vessel going beyond the edge of the fairway. The results presented in this work were obtained during the implementation of the INFUTURE international project.

scholarly journals Methodical approaches to assessing occupational health risks caused by exposure to 80-85 dB(A) noise

2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (8) ◽  
pp. 866-870
Author(s):  
Pavel Z. Shur ◽  
Nina V. Zaitseva ◽  
Vladimir A. Fokin ◽  
Svetlana V. Red’Ko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Occupational Diseases ◽  
Test Group ◽  
Excess Noise ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Occupational Risks ◽  
Risks Assessment

Introduction. The contemporary industry has a peculiarity related to impacts exerted by physical factors (a leading one is exposure to noise being higher than safe levels fixed in hygienic standards). According to the Sanitary-epidemiologic requirements No. 2.2.4.3539-16, item 3.2.6, it is necessary to assess health risks for workers who are exposed to noise ranging from 80 to 85 dB(A) at their workplaces.The aim of the study was to develop methodical approaches to quantitative assessment of risks caused by exposure to excess noise and to test them at enterprises located in Perm.Data and methods. When developing methodical approaches, we revised research works that focused on impacts exerted by noise on workers’ bodies and probable responses caused by them as well as on procedures for occupational risks assessment. When testing our approaches, we applied hygienic assessment and epidemiologic analysis procedures, and statistically analyzed data on three enterprises located in Perm (334 workers; 210 out of them were exposed to noise varying from 80 to 85 dB(A) at their workplaces).Results. We suggested the following risk assessment algorithm: creating a test group and a reference one; determining any possible relations between exposure to noise and frequency of responses from the critical body organs and systems under the Guide No. 2.2.1766-03; calculating probability and risks of occupational diseases; comparing obtained results with unacceptable risk levels. We analyzed three enterprises located in Perm and didn’t reveal any occupational diseases. The risk of occupational pathology caused by exposure to noise being higher than MPL (80-85 dB(A)) amounted to 6.4∙10-3 at the enterprise No. 3Conclusion. Suggested approaches to quantitative health risk assessment allow assessing whether exposure to noise is acceptable or not, to meet requirements fixed in the Sanitary-epidemiologic requirements No. 2.2.4.3539-16, item 3.2.6. Assessment results can give grounds for further development of preventive activities and managerial decisions aimed at preserving workers’ health.

The prospects of occupational risk management during reforms of regulatory legislation basis

2019 ◽  
pp. 39-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vadim B. Alekseev ◽  
Nina V. Zaitseva ◽  
Pavel Z. Shur
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Occupational Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Work Safety ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Legal Principles

Despite wide legislation basis of regulating relations in work safety and workers’ health, one third of workplaces demonstrate exceeded allowable normal levels of workers’ exposure to occupational hazards and present occupational risk for health disorders.In accordance to national legislation acts, evaluation should cover factors of occupational environment and working process, and occupational risk is understood in context of mandatory social insurance. This approach has been formed due to mostly compensatory trend in legal principles of work safety in Russia by now. Implementation of new preventive concept of work safety, based on idea of risk management for workers, necessitates development of legal acts that regulate requirements to evaluation of occupational risk and its reports with consideration of changes in Federal Law on 30 March 1999 №52 FZ “On sanitary epidemiologic well-being of population”.Those acts can include Sanitary Rules and Regulations “Evaluation of occupational risk for workers’ health”, that will contain main principles of risk assessment, requirements to risk assessment, including its characteristics which can serve as a basis of categorizing the risk levels with acceptability.To standardize requirements for informing a worker on the occupational risk, the expediency is specification of sanitary rules “Notifying a worker on occupational risk”. These rules should contain requirements: to a source of data on occupational risk level at workplace, to informational content and to ways of notifying the worker. Specification and implementation of the stated documents enable to fulfil legal requirements completely on work safety — that will provide preservation and increase of efficiency in using work resources.

Investigating the Ease-of-Retrieval Effect in an Eyewitness Context

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy Groncki ◽  
Jennifer L Beaudry ◽  
James D. Sauer
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Task Difficulty ◽  
Memory Studies ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Perceived Quality ◽  
Expected Effect ◽  
Bayesian Testing ◽  
Finding Study ◽  
Identification Confidence

The way in which individuals think about their own cognitive processes plays an important role in various domains. When eyewitnesses assess their confidence in identification decisions, they could be influenced by how easily relevant information comes to mind. This ease-of-retrieval effect has a robust influence on people’s cognitions in a variety of contexts (e.g., attitudes), but it has not yet been applied to eyewitness decisions. In three studies, we explored whether the ease with which eyewitnesses recall certain memorial information influenced their identification confidence assessments and related testimony-relevant judgements (e.g., perceived quality of view). We manipulated the number of reasons participants gave to justify their identification (Study 1; N = 343), and also the number of instances they provided of a weak or strong memory (Studies 2a & 2b; Ns = 350 & 312, respectively). Across the three studies, ease-of-retrieval did not affect eyewitnesses’ confidence or other testimony-relevant judgements. We then tried—and failed—to replicate Schwarz et al.’s (1991) original ease-of-retrieval finding (Study 3; N = 661). In three of the four studies, ease-of-retrieval had the expected effect on participants’ perceived task difficulty; however, frequentist and Bayesian testing showed no evidence for an effect on confidence or assertiveness ratings.

Managing an Enterprise and Ethical Dilemmas in Accountancy

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-151
Author(s):  
Jolanta Wiśniewska
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Ethical Dilemmas ◽  
Business Management ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Accounting System ◽  
Quality Of Information ◽  
Economic Entity ◽  
A Company

The purpose of this article is to present the correlation between management of an economic entity and the development of ethical accounting dilemmas in the era of high-risk business. In the globalisation era and recurring economic crises, realisation of the objectives of a company takes place under high risk conditions. It is therefore necessary to use a proper management system. The necessary condition for making all decisions is to have relevant information. The value and relevance of these decisions depend on the quality of information which they have been based on. Lack of ethics in accounting has a direct impact on the company's management, which is based on information generated by the accounting system of the company. Ethical dilemmas arising in accounting are also ethical dilemmas arising in the process of business management. 

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