scholarly journals Identification of the Tourism Risks for Z-Value Based Risk Assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Aziz M. Nuriyev
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Project Approach ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Risks Assessment ◽  
Country Specific

The growing importance of the tourism sector to the global economy contributes to the increase of research in tourism risks assessment. In view of this tendency, the results of research in the field of the risk analysis on tourists’ travels in various countries during the last decades have been analyzed. Commonly used in these studies statistical methods allow to reveal and identify country-specific tourism risks and threats. But it is necessary to underline that relevant statistical data on risks are available not in all cases and countries. Moreover, in most cases, the reliability of the information available is questionable. In order to improve the reliability and quality of the tourist risk assessment, it is proposed to consider tourist travel as a project. The proposed project approach to tourist risk analysis provides an opportunity to go beyond assessment based on available country-specific inferior statistical data and allows to develop a more flexible and versatile method for risk evaluation. Common risk factors and sub-factors for tourists were identified for further risk assessment using suggested by L. Zadeh Z-number. A bi-component Z-number Z = (A, B) with perception-based and imprecise parts A and B, allows taking into account the reliability of the information. Risk experts deal with the prediction like this one “very likely that the level of threat N is medium” or “extremely likely that this factor is very important”. This prediction can be formalized as a Z-number based evaluation and a pack of Z-valuations is considered as Z-information. Experts evaluate identified risk factors and sub-factors and their importance weight using Z-numbers.

scholarly journals Investment Risk Assessment of Dispersed Wind Power in Low Wind Speed Area Using a Hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Lingyun Liu ◽  
Jianli Zhou ◽  
Haoxin Dong ◽  
Yao Tao ◽  
Yunna Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Fuzzy Linguistic

Reducing the phenomenon of wind curtailment is essential to improve the level of wind power consumption. Wind power development in China has shifted to southeast region and dispersed wind power has developed rapidly and gradually become the new main force. However, various obstacles limit the smooth progress of dispersed wind power in low wind speed area. An important point is the absence of targeted risk analysis and evaluation methods. Therefore, the principal contribution of this paper is to find out the critical risk factors of such projects and propose the risk assessment model. First, 18 critical risk factors are identified using the constructed five-dimensional risk analysis model. Second, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set with credibility is utilized to collect evaluation information on one hand and to improve the multicriteria decision-making methods involved on the other hand. Third, the risk evaluation and ranking for 10 provinces that mainly develop dispersed wind power is carried out. The evaluation results indicate that the risk level of dispersed wind power projects is “Relatively Low” in most study provinces and the risk levels of Guangdong and Fujian are higher. It is worth noting that the consistency between the evaluation results and the distribution of wind resources can be used to guide the formulation of stimulus policies. Besides, the ranking results show some preference for investment choice. Finally, dual sensitivity analysis tests the stability of the model and shows the ranking results under different decision preferences. Scenario analysis gives the possible risk scenarios and evaluation results in the future. This study can provide insightful inspiration to wind power investors, risk management practitioners, and policymakers.

scholarly journals MULTIDIMENSIONAL APPROACH TO THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF INNOVATIVE PROJECTS RISK ASSESSMENT

2014 ◽  
pp. 72-77
Author(s):  
A. M. Pokrovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Multidimensional Approach ◽  
Priority Areas ◽  
Empirical Base ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Matrix

Article is devoted to a multidimensional approach to an important part of risk analysis of innovative projects – evaluation of the sensitivity of risk when you change their underlying caus-es. Proposed and tested on a concrete example method of forming an empirical base for modeling the sensitivity of risk evaluations of innovative projects within that do not violate the consistency of the matrix of paired statements. It is shown that this can be obtained economically significant results, including assessment of priority areas of investment elasticity of the weights of different types of risks, and identifying the most sensitive risk factors.

scholarly journals Country-Specific Determinants of Textile Industry Development in Poland: Comparative Analysis of the Years 2007 and 2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-193
Author(s):  
M. Jabłońska ◽  
J. Stawska ◽  
D.I. Czechowska
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Textile Industry ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Polish Economy ◽  
Textile Sector ◽  
Sewerage Network ◽  
Country Specific

AbstractThe textile industry is a significant sector of the Polish economy and is characterized by a strong potential. Its development can be ensured by activities in the areas of finance, technical infrastructure, environmental protection, and demographic conditions. The development of the textile sector is significantly affected by factors such as quality of commune and poviat roads, length of the sewerage network, expenditure on environmental protection, expenditures on innovative activity and on research and development, and costs related to employment and population of working age. The aim of this paper is to determine the attractiveness level of individual Polish regions for the development of the textile sector in relation to five microclimates, which somehow define the most important determinants of the development of this sector of the economy. In order to achieve this aim, the following research methods are used: presentation of statistical data and statistical methods of research. The authors test the research hypothesis that the growth potential of textile industry enterprises is the largest in the most prosperous provinces.

APPLICATION OF A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF RISKS OF LIFT EQUIPMENT OPERATION

2021 ◽  
pp. 112-115
Author(s):  
Ю.Н. Скорская ◽  
П.В. Витчук ◽  
В.Ю. Анцев ◽  
Н.Н. Трушин
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Service Life ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Diagnostic System ◽  
Structural Elements ◽  
Equipment Operation ◽  
Maintenance System ◽  
Laws Of Distribution

Приведены исследования, относящиеся к тематическому направлению оценки риска эксплуатации лифтового оборудования при помощи статистического подхода. Субъективность методов квалиметрической оценки снижения рисков эксплуатации лифтов дала возможность авторам предложить статистический подход к оценке во всех случаях, где это возможно. Наиболее сложными и ответственными этапами анализа и оценки риска эксплуатации лифтового оборудования является сбор информации, необходимой для установления законов распределения сроков службы и определения гамма-процентных ресурсов его конструктивных элементов, а также детальное изучение всех обстоятельств возникновения этих отказов. Анализ статистических данных, проведенный авторами, позволил исследовать долговечность отдельных элементов лифтового оборудования и использовать эти данные для оценки срока службы и обоснования рисков эксплуатации как лифта в целом, так и отдельных его элементов. А проведение анализа причин выхода из строя элементов оборудования позволилo дать оценку необходимости проведения мероприятий по повышению их сроков службы, надежности и качества обслуживания. Современные методы компьютерной обработки информации в сочетании с внедрением системы самодиагностики лифтового оборудования могут существенно повысить эффективность системы технического обслуживания лифтов, а своевременное диагностирование - минимизировать аварии и обеспечить безопасность передвижения The article presents studies related to the thematic area of risk assessment of the operation of elevator equipment using a statistical approach. The subjectivity of the methods of qualimetric assessment of reducing the risks of operating elevators made it possible to propose a statistical approach to assessment in all cases where it is possible. The most difficult and crucial stages of the analysis and risk assessment of the operation of elevator equipment is the collection of information necessary to establish the laws of distribution of service life and determine the gamma-percentage resources of its structural elements, as well as a detailed study of all the circumstances of these failures. The analysis of statistical data that we carried out made it possible to investigate the durability of individual elements of the elevator equipment and use these data to assess the service life and substantiate the risks of operating both the elevator as a whole and its individual elements. And the analysis of the reasons for the failure of equipment elements made it possible to assess the need for measures to increase their service life, reliability, and quality of service. Modern methods of computer processing of information in combination with the introduction of a self-diagnostic system for elevator equipment can significantly increase the efficiency of the elevator maintenance system, and timely diagnostics can minimize accidents and ensure the safety of operation

Dominant correlates of depressive disorders and effects on quality of life among older adults in low- and middle-income countries: Further analysis of WHO study on Global Ageing and Adult Health

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-165
Author(s):  
Dwomoh Duah ◽  
Amuasi Susan A ◽  
Gabriel Incoom ◽  
Yawson Alfred E ◽  
Emmanuel Asampong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Adult Health ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Global Ageing ◽  
Country Specific

Background: Poor quality of life (QoL) disrupts social functioning, fulfilment of basic needs, and is associated with depressive disorder (DD). Objective: We answered the question of whether there is a common risk factor for DD across six low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and determined whether this risk factor can be ranked consistently as the most important predictor of DD in all six LMICs. We estimated the effect of DD on QoL for each country and meta-analyzed the results to generate a pooled effect estimate of DD on QoL in the six LMICs. Methods: We used data from the WHO Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE). This study involved a total of 35,164 older adults aged ≥ 50 yr. in six LMICs: China, 13,408; Ghana, 4,305; India, 7,108; Mexico, 2,309; Russian Federation, 3,763; and South Africa, 3,842. We conducted an extensive literature review to select the list of 58 potential risk factors associated with DD. We used double selection Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator Poisson regression model to identify country-specific risk factors associated with DD. Weighted dominance analysis (WDA) was performed to determine the most important risk factor of DD. To estimate the effect of DD on QoL, we used inverse probability weighting Poisson regression adjustment for each country, and meta-analysis techniques for a pooled estimate of the overall effect. Results: The risk factors for DD were generally country specific. However, asthma was the most common and the most important predictor of DD across all six SAGE countries. In Ghana, the prevalence of DD among older adults who have been diagnosed with asthma or have experienced symptoms of asthma in the 12 months preceding the survey was 14 times that among those without asthma or asymptomatic of asthma [Adjusted Prevalence Ratio (aPR), 14.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 10.47 - 19.97; p < 0.001]. Similarly, it was 14 times in South Africa (aPR, 14.6; 95% CI: 8.18 - 26.14; p < 0.00) but in Mexico, it was 4 times (aPR, 4.39; 95% CI: 3.00 - 6.42; p < 0.001) and in China (aPR, 5.99; 95% CI: 4.32 - 8.31; p < 0.001) and Russia (aPR, 5.90; 95% CI: 3.9 - 9.0; p < 0.001), it was 6 times. In India, it was 5 times (aPR=5.1; 95% CI: 4.3 - 6.0; p < 0.001. Generally, there was evidence of 8% increase in poor QoL due to the presence of DD (Pooled estimate, 0.08; 95% CI: 6.0 – 12; p < 0.001). Specifically, in China, there was evidence of 12% increase in poor QoL that could be attributed to DD (prevalence difference (PD), 0.12; 95% CI: 0.07 - 0.18; p < 0.001). In India (PD, 0.08; 95% CI: 0.04 - 0.13; p < 0.01) and Russian Federation (PD, 0.08; 95% CI: 0.01 - 0.15; p < 0.01), there was evidence of 8% increase in poor QoL. Although, there was some increase in poor QoL in Mexico, Ghana, and South Africa due to DD, the increase was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Although different factors could explain the prevalence of DD among older adults in the six LMICs, it was evident that asthma patients amongst this population were at a higher risk of DD. Clinical evaluation and potential diagnosis and treatment of DD among older adults who present with asthma could potentially enhance their QoL

Risks Assessment in Designing Phase: Its Impacts and Issues

2018 ◽  
pp. 46-60
Author(s):  
Ankita Sharma ◽  
Vipin Pal ◽  
Nitish Ojha ◽  
Rohit Bajaj
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Risk Calculation ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Assessment Technique ◽  
Practical Possibility ◽  
Or Methodology ◽  
Risks Assessment

This chapter describes how risk analysis is a phenomena or methodology which is considered to be an amalgamation of various contexts to analyze and reach upon a conclusion about the fragility, vulnerability, flaws, defects, possible threats and dangers, which a particular software or system is prone to. It is an organization-level decision support tool which helps in gathering all sorts of data. That data, further, helps in arriving at a conclusion about how fragile or vulnerable a particular system is. Being a risk analyst, possessing deep knowledge, requires that one will analyze all possibilities of any risk, possible in any form, limitations of every risk assessment technique being applied and finally, the practical possibility or possible outcome of a particular risk-calculation strategy applied in a real-time environment.

scholarly journals Using EWGM method to optimise the FMEA as a risk assessment methodology

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahar AL Mashaqbeh ◽  
Jose Eduardo Munive-Hernandez ◽  
Mohammed Khurshid Khan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Ranking

Failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) is a proactive, highly structured and systematic approach for failure analysis. It has been also applied as a risk assessment tool, by ranking potential risks based on the estimation of risk priority numbers (RPNs). This article develops an improved FMEA methodology for strategic risk analysis. The proposed approach combines the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique with the exponential and weighted geometric mean method (EWGM) to support risk analysis. AHP is applied to estimate the weights of three risk factors: Severity (S), Occurrence (O) and Detection (D), which integrate the RPN for each risk. The EWGM method is applied for ranking RPNs. Combining AHP with EWGM allows avoiding repetition of FMEA results. The results of the developed methodology reveal that duplication of RPNs has been decreased, facilitating an effective risk ranking by offering a unique value for each risk. The proposed methodology not only focuses on high severity values for risk ranking but it also considers other risk factors (O and D), resulting in an enhanced risk assessment process. Furthermore, the weights of the three risk factors are considered. In this way, the developed methodology offers unique value for each risk in a simple way which makes the risk assessment results more accurate. This methodology provides a practical and systematic approach to support decision makers in assessing and ranking risks that could affect long-term strategy implementation. The methodology was validated through the case study of a power plant in the Middle East, assessing 84 risks within 9 risk categories. The case study revealed that top management should pay more attention to key risks associated with electricity price, gas emissions, lost-time injuries, bad odour and production.

scholarly journals Toxicological Risk Analysis in Data-Poor Countries: A Narrative Approach to Feed an “Awareness Raising—Community Empowerment” Vortex

Medicina ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (11) ◽  
pp. 629
Author(s):  
Chiara Frazzoli
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Toxic Exposures ◽  
Awareness Raising ◽  
Toxicological Risk ◽  
Sub Saharan

Background and objectives: With globalization of culture and products, choices and behaviors associated with the unawareness of toxicological risk factors result in human and environmental toxic exposures along with health disparities. Toxic exposures are risk factors for malnutrition and diseases, impairing the chances of being healthy and having a healthy adulthood for current and next generation(s). Increasing research funds, infrastructures, analytical data and risk assessment is a reality well worth attention in sub-Saharan Africa. These countries are still unprotected nowadays and are particularly exposed and data-poor in respect to risk factors (e.g., neurotoxicants, immunotoxicants and endocrine disruptors). This paper presents how—based on scientific literature—low-resource countries may achieve more with less. As one of the world’s most important emerging markets, Africa can, and should, assess the benefits and risks of modernity versus tradition and ask for safe and quality products at affordable prices while producing safe and nutritious foods. Materials and Methods: Exempla and experiences of risk analysis based on participant observation in field anthropological research, consumer safaris and reportages in the field of food safety, environmental health and consumer products are discussed in terms of “narrative prevention” and its power to highlight previously unrecognized/overlooked real-life risk scenarios. Knowledge return initiatives are discussed in light of their power to feed awareness raising, informed choice and empowerment of communities. Results: In some cases, data exist but remain too sparse, unknown or underused; in other cases, the information is totally neglected. When there is international scientific evidence, a diagnostic risk assessment is feasible. Despite significant resource constraints, properly science-driven targeted reportages in data-poor countries can bridge the gaps between international scientific knowledge and the implementation of relevant findings in an “awareness-empowerment vortex”. When a clear message promoting healthy choices and behaviors is given, African communities are ready to respond. Conclusions: Poor skills are an avoidable consequence of low national income. Narrative prevention does not replace scientific research but stimulates scientific research and toxicological risk analysis during the ongoing risk transition in Africa. While African populations increasingly aspire to improve life expectancy in health, increasing exposure to such new health risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa needs top-down choices for diseases prevention, One Health, as well as public awareness and empowerment towards everyday habits and health protective choices.

Risk Analysis of Hydropower Construction Project Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

2013 ◽  
Vol 357-360 ◽  
pp. 2177-2181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Na Wu ◽  
Zi Shan Hu ◽  
Ru Hang Xu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Vector System ◽  
Hydropower Project ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Hydropower Construction

Hydropower construction projects have been faced with more complex risk factors and had higher demands on technology in recent years. It is how to do the risk assessment and management that have been the focus of hydropower project management. In the basis of the analysis of risk factors of hydropower projects, this article has adopted analytic hierarchy to construct the hydropower project risk evaluation index system, and presented 9-scale method in accordance with human experience and judgment to make quantitative risk assessment of the risk factors by weight vector system. With the construction of the risk fuzzy evaluation model and the analysis by examples, it is proved that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method has the applicability for hydropower project risk analysis, which combined qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to strengthen the regulation and evaluation effectiveness.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis at Work in Manufacturing Organization

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 1493-1497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maroš Korenko ◽  
Marián Bujna ◽  
Daniela Földešiová ◽  
Petr Dostál ◽  
Peter Kyselica
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Health Hazard ◽  
Acceptable Level ◽  
Complex Method ◽  
Remedial Measures ◽  
Current State ◽  
Reduce Risk ◽  
Manufacturing Organization

Risk is virtually present everywhere around us. Nowadays, there is an increasing focus on safety at work; therefore, the organizations that want to be successful in the market try to eliminate risk factors to a minimum to avoid or prevent the health hazard of employees, damages to property or the environment. The work is focused on the risk assessment of a selected device, which is the most risky workplace according to the organization where the research was conducted. In the practical part, we became familiar with the equipment for welding and a thorough analysis of the current state of safety by a complex method was done. Consequently, corrective actions to reduce risk to an acceptable level were proposed. After that, we reassessed the risks of complex method, and the point method was used to verify the effectiveness of proposed remedial measures.

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