scholarly journals Estimates of mortality attributable to COVID-19: a statistical model for monitoring COVID-19 and seasonal influenza, Denmark, spring 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens Nielsen ◽  
Naja Hulvej Rod ◽  
Lasse S Vestergaard ◽  
Theis Lange
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Influenza Season ◽  
Influenza Viruses ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Public Health Action ◽  
Mortality Model ◽  
Health Action ◽  
Related Mortality

Background Timely monitoring of COVID-19 impact on mortality is critical for rapid risk assessment and public health action. Aim Building upon well-established models to estimate influenza-related mortality, we propose a new statistical Attributable Mortality Model (AttMOMO), which estimates mortality attributable to one or more pathogens simultaneously (e.g. SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal influenza viruses), while adjusting for seasonality and excess temperatures. Methods Data from Nationwide Danish registers from 2014-week(W)W27 to 2020-W22 were used to exemplify utilities of the model, and to estimate COVID-19 and influenza attributable mortality from 2019-W40 to 2020-W20. Results SARS-CoV-2 was registered in Denmark from 2020-W09. Mortality attributable to COVID-19 in Denmark increased steeply, and peaked in 2020-W14. As preventive measures and national lockdown were implemented from 2020-W12, the attributable mortality started declining within a few weeks. Mortality attributable to COVID-19 from 2020-W09 to 2020-W20 was estimated to 16.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 12.0 to 20.4) per 100,000 person-years. The 2019/20 influenza season was mild with few deaths attributable to influenza, 3.2 (95% CI: 1.1 to 5.4) per 100,000 person-years. Conclusion AttMOMO estimates mortality attributable to several pathogens simultaneously, providing a fuller picture of mortality by COVID-19 during the pandemic in the context of other seasonal diseases and mortality patterns. Using Danish data, we show that the model accurately estimates mortality attributable to COVID-19 and influenza, respectively. We propose using standardised indicators for pathogen circulation in the population, to make estimates comparable between countries and applicable for timely monitoring.

scholarly journals Past and Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 9024
Author(s):  
Fanny Janssen ◽  
Shady El Gewily ◽  
Anastasios Bardoutsos ◽  
Sergi Trias-Llimós
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Population Level ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Public Health Action ◽  
Health Action ◽  
North Western ◽  
Careful Assessment

Although alcohol consumption is an important public health issue in Europe, estimates of future alcohol-attributable mortality for European countries are rare, and only apply to the short-term future. We project (age-specific) alcohol-attributable mortality up to 2060 in 26 European countries, after a careful assessment of past trends. For this purpose we used population-level country-, sex-, age- (20–84) and year-specific (1990–2016) alcohol-attributable mortality fractions (AAMF) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which we adjusted at older ages. To these data we apply an advanced age-period-cohort projection methodology, that avoids unrealistic future differences and crossovers between sexes and countries. We project that in the future, AAMF levels will decline in all countries, and will converge across countries and sexes. For 2060, projected AAMF are, on average, 5.1% among men and 1.4% among women, whereas in 2016 these levels were 10.1% and 3.3%, respectively. For men, AAMF is projected to be higher in Eastern and South-western Europe than in North-western Europe. All in all, the share of mortality due to alcohol is projected to eventually decline in all 26 European countries. Achieving these projected declines will, however, require strong ongoing public health action, particularly for selected Eastern and North-western European countries.

Estimating the number of cases during COVID-19 pandemics using a web-based tool: first week results of “COVID-19 TRENDS” social media project in the Araba-Alava province in Basque country, Spain. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Garitano ◽  
Manuel Linares ◽  
Laura Santos ◽  
Ruth Gil ◽  
Elena Lapuente ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Response Rate ◽  
Basque Country ◽  
Case Definition ◽  
Public Health Action ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Health Action ◽  
Estimate Number ◽  
Media Project

UNSTRUCTURED On 28th February a case of COVID-19 was declared in Araba-Álava province, Spain. In Spain, a confinement and movement restrictions were established by Spanish Government at 14th March 2020. We implemented a web-based tool to estimate number of cases during the pandemic. We present the results in Áraba-Álava province. We reached a response rate of 10,3% out a 331.549 population. We found that 22,4 % fulfilled the case definition. This tool rendered useful to inform public health action.

scholarly journals Reconciling Epidemiology’s Aspirations and Capabilities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A Savitz
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Epidemiologic Studies ◽  
Public Health Importance ◽  
Public Health Action ◽  
Action Current ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
The Face ◽  
Health Action ◽  
New Challenges ◽  
Health Applications

Abstract Interpreting the results of epidemiologic studies calls for objectivity and rigorous scrutiny, acknowledging the limitations that temper the applicability of the findings to public health action. Current trends have posed new challenges to balancing goal of scientific objectivity and validity with public health applications. The ongoing tension between epidemiology’s aspirations and capability has several sources: the need to overpromise in research proposals, compromising methodologic rigor because of public health importance, defending findings in the face of hostile critics, and appealing to core constituencies who have specific expectations from the research.

scholarly journals Risk factors, symptom reporting, healthcare-seeking behaviour and adherence to public health guidance: protocol for Virus Watch, a prospective community cohort study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. e048042
Author(s):  
Andrew Hayward ◽  
Ellen Fragaszy ◽  
Jana Kovar ◽  
Vincent Nguyen ◽  
Sarah Beale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Advisory Group ◽  
Antibody Testing ◽  
Public Health Action ◽  
Nasal Swabs ◽  
Health Action ◽  
Minority Ethnic

IntroductionThe coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has caused significant global mortality and impacted lives around the world. Virus Watch aims to provide evidence on which public health approaches are most likely to be effective in reducing transmission and impact of the virus, and will investigate community incidence, symptom profiles and transmission of COVID-19 in relation to population movement and behaviours.Methods and analysisVirus Watch is a household community cohort study of acute respiratory infections in England and Wales and will run from June 2020 to August 2021. The study aims to recruit 50 000 people, including 12 500 from minority ethnic backgrounds, for an online survey cohort and monthly antibody testing using home fingerprick test kits. Nested within this larger study will be a subcohort of 10 000 individuals, including 3000 people from minority ethnic backgrounds. This cohort of 10 000 people will have full blood serology taken between October 2020 and January 2021 and repeat serology between May 2021 and August 2021. Participants will also post self-administered nasal swabs for PCR assays of SARS-CoV-2 and will follow one of three different PCR testing schedules based on symptoms.Ethics and disseminationThis study has been approved by the Hampstead National Health Service (NHS) Health Research Authority Ethics Committee (ethics approval number 20/HRA/2320). We are monitoring participant queries and using these to refine methodology where necessary, and are providing summaries and policy briefings of our preliminary findings to inform public health action by working through our partnerships with our study advisory group, Public Health England, NHS and government scientific advisory panels.

scholarly journals Time to dismiss the idea of a structural fix within government? An analysis of intersectoral action for health in Danish municipalities

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (22_suppl) ◽  
pp. 48-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ditte H. Holt ◽  
Gemma Carey ◽  
Morten H. Rod
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Boundary Spanning ◽  
Governance Structures ◽  
Intersectoral Action ◽  
Structural Reorganization ◽  
Organizational Boundaries ◽  
Public Health Action ◽  
Process Consulting ◽  
Health Action

Aims: This paper examines the role of organizational structure within government(s) in attempts to implement intersectoral action for health in Danish municipalities. We discuss the implications of structural reorganization and the governance structures that are established in order to ensure coordination and integration between policy sectors. Methods: The paper is based on 49 interviews with civil servants from health and non-health sectors of 10 municipalities. Based on participants’ experiences, cases have been described and analyzed in an iterative process consulting the literature on Health in All Policies and joined-up government. Results: Continuous and frequent processes of reorganizing were widespread in the municipalities. However, they appeared to have little effect on policy change. The two most common governance structures established to transcend organizational boundaries were the central unit and the intersectoral committee. According to the experiences of participants, paradoxically both of these organizational solutions tend to reproduce the organizational problems they are intended to overcome. Even if structural reorganization may succeed in dissolving some sector boundaries, it will inevitably create new ones. Conclusions: It is time to dismiss the idea that intersectoral action for health can be achieved by means of a structural fix. Rather than rearranging organizational boundaries it may be more useful to seek to manage the silos which exist in any organization, e.g. by promoting awareness of their implications for public health action and by enhancing the boundary spanning skills of public health officers.

Compelling Evidence for Public Health Action to Reduce Salt Intake

2010 ◽  
Vol 362 (7) ◽  
pp. 650-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence J. Appel ◽  
Cheryl A.M. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Salt Intake ◽  
Compelling Evidence ◽  
Public Health Action ◽  
Health Action
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