scholarly journals Flood Forecasting with Uncertainty Using a Fully Automated Flood Model Chain: a Case Study for the City of Kulmbach

10.29007/jb27 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Nazmul Azim Beg ◽  
Jorge Leandro ◽  
Punit Bhola ◽  
Iris Konnerth ◽  
Kanwal Amin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Flood Forecast ◽  
The Public ◽  
Uncertainty Sources ◽  
Flood Model ◽  
The City ◽  
Model Chain

Real time flood forecasting can help authorities in providing reliable warnings to the public. This process is, however, non-deterministic such that uncertainty sources need to be accounted before issuing forecasts. In the FloodEvac project, we have developed a tool which takes as inputs rainfall forecasts and links a hydrological with a hydraulic model for producing flood forecasts. The tool is able to handle calibration/validation of the hydrological model (LARSIM) and produces real-time flood forecast with associated uncertainty of flood discharges and flood extents. In this case study, we focus on the linkage with the hydrological model and on the real-time discharge forecasts generated.

scholarly journals Discharge Interval method for uncertain flood forecasts using a flood model chain: city of Kulmbach

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 925-944
Author(s):  
Md Nazmul Azim Beg ◽  
Jorge Leandro ◽  
Punit Bhola ◽  
Iris Konnerth ◽  
Winfried Willems ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Historical Event ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Interval Method ◽  
The Public ◽  
Uncertainty Sources ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Model Chain

Abstract Real-time flood forecasting can help authorities in providing reliable warnings to the public. Ensemble prediction systems (EPS) have been progressively used for operational flood forecasting by European hydrometeorological agencies in recent years. This process, however, is non-deterministic such that uncertainty sources need to be considered before issuing forecasts. In this study, a new methodology for flood forecasting named Discharge Interval method is proposed. This method uses at least one historical event hindcast data, run in several ensembles and selects a pair of best ensemble discharge results for every certain discharge level. Later, the method uses the same parameter settings of the chosen ensemble discharge pair to forecast any certain flood discharge level. The methodology was implemented within the FloodEvac tool. The tool can handle calibration/validation of the hydrological model (LARSIM) and produces real-time flood forecasts with the associated uncertainty of the flood discharges. The proposed methodology is computationally efficient and suitable for real-time forecasts with uncertainty. The results using the Discharge Interval method were found comparable to the 90th percentile forecasted discharge range obtained with the Ensemble method.

Taking a break is for accomplishing a longer journey: hospitality industry in Macao under the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Tingchi Liu ◽  
Shaoshan Wang ◽  
Glenn McCartney ◽  
IpKin Anthony Wong
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Hospitality Industry ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Policy Domain ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Tourism Economy ◽  
The City

Purpose This paper aims to analyze how a real-time COVID-19 pandemic is impacting Macao’s hospitality industry, and illustrates why lessons from COVID-19 are an opportunity for further development for the city. Design/methodology/approach This case study highlights local government and hospitality industry responses to a real-time crisis. Academic studies, media news and reports have been collected to illustrate why the Macao’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic could be taken as a city case study example. Previous crisis experience provided guidance to Macao’s success in this pandemic. Findings Macao has succeeded in managing the adverse effects of COVID-19, illustrating the coexistence of challenges and opportunities from experiencing the epidemic. With no COVID-19 cases in the city, cross-border tourism with China resumed in September. Macao is undeniably over reliant on the gambling industry to provide tax income and employment, creating an unbalanced industrial structure. However, the Chinese and Macao Governments, the hospitality industry and other stakeholders, have presented high levels of engagement, unity and rational courses of action during the pandemic. This paper examines Macao’s two orientations – intra and post-coronavirus – which are shown to be instrumental in the city’s future tourism development. Practical implications As the paper is Macao-specific, some generalization may not be applicable. The lessons and strategies proposed in the paper may only be theoretically and temporarily workable in this real-time situation. However, as COVID-19 will remain for some time globally, the efficacy of the findings justifies further ongoing analysis and application beyond Macao. Originality/value The case offers a first-hand analysis on the governance of Macao to negate the impacts of COVID-19, enabling a comprehensive review on the practices and policies that were effective during the virus outbreak. There is reference for researchers and practitioners in the public policy domain, and particularly in the area of crisis management and destination resilience. The result is worthy of future exploration on how the mechanism of centralized government facilitates risk management, and the rebuilding of a tourism economy in a crisis context, comparing this to other national systems.

scholarly journals Using Internet Search Queries to Assess Public Awareness of the Healthy Cities Approach: A Case Study in Shenzhen, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 4264
Author(s):  
Jun Yang ◽  
Yutong Zhang ◽  
Yixiong Xiao ◽  
Shaoqing Shen ◽  
Mo Su ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Awareness ◽  
Healthy Cities ◽  
Internet Search ◽  
Health Concerns ◽  
Search Queries ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Factors ◽  
Data Source ◽  
The City

Cities around the globe are embracing the Healthy Cities approach to address urban health challenges. Public awareness is vital for successfully deploying this approach but is rarely assessed. In this study, we used internet search queries to evaluate the public awareness of the Healthy Cities approach applied in Shenzhen, China. The overall situation at the city level and the intercity variations were both analyzed. Additionally, we explored the factors that might affect the internet search queries of the Healthy Cities approach. Our results showed that the public awareness of the approach in Shenzhen was low. There was a high intercity heterogeneity in terms of interest in the various components of the Healthy Cities approach. However, we did not find a significant effect of the selected demographic, environmental, and health factors on the search queries. Based on our findings, we recommend that the city raise public awareness of healthy cities and take actions tailored to health concerns in different city zones. Our study showed that internet search queries can be a valuable data source for assessing the public awareness of the Healthy Cities approach.

unrechtliche peinliche schmehung oder dem gemeinen nutz nuetzlich?Eine Fallstudie zur Normenkonkurrenz im Schmähschriftprozess des 16. Jahrhunderts

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-149
Author(s):  
Jan Siegemund
Keyword(s):  
Early Modern ◽  
Common Good ◽  
Public Places ◽  
Legal Norms ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Public Sphere ◽  
The City ◽  
Different Levels

AbstractLibel played an important and extraordinary role in early modern conflict culture. The article discusses their functions and the way they were assessed in court. The case study illustrates argumentative spaces and different levels of normative references in libel trials in 16th century electoral Saxony. In 1569, Andreas Langener – in consequence of a long stagnating private conflict – posted several libels against the nobleman Tham Pflugk in different public places in the city of Dresden. Consequently, he was arrested and charged with ‘libelling’. Depending on the reference to conflicting social and legal norms, he had therefore been either threatened with corporal punishment including his execution, or rewarded with laudations. In this case, the act of libelling could be seen as slander, but also as a service to the community, which Langener had informed about potentially harmful transgression of norms. While the common good was the highest maxim, different and sometimes conflicting legally protected interests had to be discussed. The situational decision depended on whether the articulated charges where true and relevant for the public, on the invective language, and especially on the quality and size of the public sphere reached by the libel.

Transmedia Journalism and the City

2018 ◽  
pp. 147-161
Author(s):  
Renira Rampazzo Gambarato
Keyword(s):  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Participatory Culture ◽  
Urban Spaces ◽  
Mobile Technologies ◽  
Housing Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The City ◽  
Alternative Solutions

This chapter discusses the participatory flair of transmedia journalism within the concreteness of urban spaces by examining The Great British Property Scandal (TGBPS), a transmedia experience designed to inform and engage the public and offer alternative solutions to the long-standing housing crisis in the United Kingdom. The theoretical framework is centered on transmedia storytelling applied to journalism in the scope of urban spaces and participatory culture. The methodological approach of the case study is based on Gambarato's (2013) transmedia analytical model and applied to TGBPS to depict how transmedia strategies within urban spaces collaborated to influence social change. TGBPS is a pertinent example of transmedia journalism within the liquid society, integrating mobile technologies into daily processes with the potential for enhanced localness, customization, and mobility within the urban fabric.

scholarly journals Applying a Model for Trip Assignment and Dynamic Routing of Automated Taxis with Congestion: System Performance in the City of Delft, The Netherlands

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (8) ◽  
pp. 588-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Liang ◽  
Gonçalo Homem de Almeida Correia ◽  
Bart van Arem
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Profit Maximization ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Size ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

This paper proposes a method of assigning trips to automated taxis (ATs) and designing the routes of those vehicles in an urban road network, and also considering the traffic congestion caused by this dynamic responsive service. The system is envisioned to provide a seamless door-to-door service within a city area for all passenger origins and destinations. An integer programming model is proposed to define the routing of the vehicles according to a profit maximization function, depending on the dynamic travel times, which varies with the ATs’ flow. This will be especially important when the number of automated vehicles (AVs) circulating on the roads is high enough that their routing will cause delays. This system should be able to serve not only the reserved travel requests, but also some real-time requests. A rolling horizon scheme is used to divide one day into several periods in which both the real-time and the booked demand will be considered together. The model was applied to the real size case study city of Delft, the Netherlands. The results allow assessing of the impact of the ATs movements on traffic congestion and the profitability of the system. From this case-study, it is possible to conclude that taking into account the effect of the vehicle flows on travel time leads to changes in the system profit, the satisfied percentage and the driving distance of the vehicles, which highlights the importance of this type of model in the assessment of the operational effects of ATs in the future.

Real-Time Flood Forecasting System: Case Study of Hsia-Yun Watershed, Taiwan

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 05015031 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jen-Kuo Huang ◽  
Ya-Hsin Chan ◽  
Kwan Tun Lee
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting System

scholarly journals Hydrological Evaluation of Satellite Soil Moisture Data in Two Basins of Different Climate and Vegetation Density Conditions

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Zhuo ◽  
Dawei Han
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Spatial Difference ◽  
Vegetation Density ◽  
Modis Ndvi ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Microwave Sensors ◽  
Validation Tool

Accurate soil moisture information is very important for real-time flood forecasting. Although satellite soil moisture observations are useful information, their validations are generally hindered by the large spatial difference with the point-based measurements, and hence they cannot be directly applied in hydrological modelling. This study adopts a widely applied operational hydrological model Xinanjiang (XAJ) as a hydrological validation tool. Two widely used microwave sensors (SMOS and AMSR-E) are evaluated, over two basins (French Broad and Pontiac) with different climate types and vegetation covers. The results demonstrate SMOS outperforms AMSR-E in the Pontiac basin (cropland), while both products perform poorly in the French Broad basin (forest). The MODIS NDVI thresholds of 0.81 and 0.64 (for cropland and forest basins, resp.) are very effective in dividing soil moisture datasets into “denser” and “thinner” vegetation periods. As a result, in the cropland, the statistical performance is further improved for both satellites (i.e., improved to NSE = 0.74, RMSE = 0.0059 m and NSE = 0.58, RMSE = 0.0066 m for SMOS and AMER-E, resp.). The overall assessment suggests that SMOS is of reasonable quality in estimating basin-scale soil moisture at moderate-vegetated areas, and NDVI is a useful indicator for further improving the performance.

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