scholarly journals Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhui Cadangan Devisa Indonesia Bukti (Kointegrasi dan Kausalitas)

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Hijri Juliansyah ◽  
Putri Moulida ◽  
Apridar Apridar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Bound Test

This study aims to analyze the factors that influence Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves by proving cointegration (long-run relationships) and causality (reciprocal relationships). The data used is time series data during the period January 2014-December 2018. The analytical method used in this study is cointegration test and granger causality with the approach of auto regressive lag (ARDL). The cointegration test results using the Bound test test indicated that between the variables of foreign exchange reserves, exports, the exchange rate, the BI Rate and inflation had a stability relationship of movements in the long run. While the results of the causality test showed that there is a one-way relationship between foreign exchange reserves and exports, and so there was a unidirectional relationship between foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate and the same relationship between the BI Rate and foreign exchange reserves. Keywords: foreign exchange reserves, exports, exchange rates, BI Rate, inflation.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of The Rupiah Exchange Rate in 2017-2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arief Aldila Susanto ◽  
Rr. Retno Retno Sugiharti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

<p align="justify">The exchange rate is one of the most important indicators in the economy. Moreover, with the increasing intensity of trade between countries, commonly referred to as international trade, this economic indicator becomes important for every country, including Indonesia. The change in the Indonesian exchange rate system to a free-floating system has made the exchange rate fluctuations more dynamic. The fluctuations are influenced by various factors, both internal and external. This study aims to determine the effect of the money supply (M<sub>2</sub>), foreign exchange reserves, SBI interest rates and world crude oil prices on the rupiah/dollar exchange rate in 2017-2020 both in the short run and in the long run. The data used is monthly time series data from 2017-2020. The analytical method used in this study is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results in this study indicate that in the short run and long run the money supply and foreign exchange reserves variables have a significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate in 2017-2020.</p>

scholarly journals COINTEGRATING RELATION BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND GOLD PRICE

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 263-269
Author(s):  
Ranjusha ◽  
Devasia ◽  
Nandakumar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

The very purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between gold price and Rupee – Dollar exchange rate in India. The study utilises the annual data of exchange Rate (ER) and Gold Price (GP) from 1970 to 2015 to determine the relationship. Different econometric tools like Unit root test, Johansen co integration test, Vector error correction model, Granger causality test are used for detecting the long run relation, if any between the mentioned variables. The result shows that there exists a long run cointegrating relation between the variables. That is we can stabilise the Gold Price movement by controlling the exchange rate fluctuations. Likewise it also shows that Exchange rate doesn’t Granger cause to Gold price and vice versa. It means that the time series data of one vasriable cannot be used to predict another.

scholarly journals INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DAN RETURN SAHAM SYARIAH DI INDONESIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Utami Baroroh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Us Dollar

The objectives of this study are to examine empirical test the long term equilibrium and simulteneous relationship between macroeconomics variables to stock return in Indonesia and to observe stock return response because shock/innovation of inflation, SBI discount rate and exchange rate Rupiah to US dollar. The data sample used in this study are monthly time series data from 2003.1 – 2010.6. Those data are SBI discount rate, inflation (CPI), exchange rate Rupiah to US dollar, money supply and stock return (IHSG). A method of analysis in this study are Granger Causality Test and Cointegration test. The empirical results shows that SBI discount rate, inflation (CPI), and exchange rate Rupiah to US dollar have causality relationship to stock return.. The cointegration test indicates that among research variables there is long term equilibrium and simultaneous relationshipDOI: 10.15408/sjie.v2i2.2421

An Analysis of the Dynamic Relationships between Inflation Volatility, Exchange Rate and Output Gap Volatility in Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 4772-4787
Author(s):  
Sevilay Küçüksakarya ◽  
Mustafa Özer
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study investigates the short and long-run relationships between Inflation volatility, exchange rate, and output gap volatility using the ARDL bounds testing approach in Turkey. Also, we repeat the estimates by using the output gap as well. Moreover, we examine the causal relationship among these variables by using Toda-Yamamoto and frequency domain causality tests. For this purpose, the study uses quarterly time series data between 2005 Q1 and 2020 Q4. Both short and long-run results of the ARDL estimates indicate that there are statistically significant relationships between exchange rate and inflation volatility, between output gap volatility and inflation volatility, and between the output gap and inflation volatility. As expected long-run effect of the exchange rate on inflation, volatility is negative, and the effects of both output volatility and output gap on inflation volatility are positive. Also, causality tests results indicate that changes in the exchange rate, output gap volatility, and output gap will have permanent and temporary causal effects on inflation volatility. Therefore, the study results provide new evidence about the exchange rate, output gap volatility, and output gap. The policymakers should carefully consider these results to implement appropriate policies to reduce inflation volatility.

scholarly journals PENGARUH SUBSIDI BBM TERHADAP IMPOR MINYAK BUMI PERIODE 1980 – 2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Riwi Sumantyo ◽  
Puji Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Data Use ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

The study on the effect of fuel subsidies toward oil import is a controversial topicdiscussions. This study will explore the effect of fuel subsidies on oil import by addingseveral independent variables, consist of; the number of vehichles, the exchange rateand inflation. Data use time series data from 1980-2013. The tool of analyze is OrdinaryLeast Squares Method (OLS).Based on the results show that the simultaneous testexplains that the fuel subsidies, the number of vehichles, the exchange rate, and inflationhave a significant effect on oil import. However partially, the variables of fuel subsidies,the number of vehichles, and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effecton oil import. Inflation does not affect on oil import. The coefficient of determinationuses Adjusted R-square test is about 98%. The implication of this study is governmentscan increase oil production Indonesia. The government should facilitate the licensing ofinvestment and rejuvenate the old oil wells. It aims to reduce Indonesia dependence onoil import so that it can save foreign exchange reserves.

scholarly journals Relationship between Foreign Exchange Rate and Stock Price of Commercial Joint Stock Banks: Evidence from Vietnam

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tran Mong Uyen Ngan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between foreign exchange rate and stock price is one popular topic that is interested by not only board managers of banks but also stock investors. By using data about foreign exchange rate between Vietnam Dong (VND) and United State Dollar (USD), stock prices data of nine commercial joint stock banks in Vietnam from the first day of 2013 to the last day of 2015, this paper try to answer the question “Does foreign exchange rate impact on stock price and vice verse?”. Applying Dickey Fuller test and Var Granger Causality test for the time series data, the results show that there is an impact of foreign exchange rate on stock price. Although the fluctuation in foreign exchange rate VND/USD causes the change in stock prices of commercial joint stock banks in Vietnam, however, the vector of this impact is not clearly. On the opposite way, the change in stock price does not cause the change in foreign exchange rate, this relation is one-way relation.

ANALISIS KOINTEGRASI DAN KAUSALITAS ANTARA INFRASTRUKTUR JALAN, PERDAGANGAN BARANG DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI NEGARA ANGGOTA ASEAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonius KAP Simbolon
Keyword(s):  
Member Country ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period

This research aims to analyze Cointegration and Causality among ASEAN Road Infrastructure, ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth, using time series data, that is yearly data during the time period 2007 to 2015. The method used to test cointegration is Johansen’s Multivariate Cointegration Test dan the method used to test the causality is Granger’s Causality. The result of cointegration test revealed that there are a long run relationship between ASEAN Road Infrastructure, ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth in each member country of ASEAN. While the results of the Granger Causality test found there is a two-way relationship (mutual causality) between ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth in each member country of ASEAN. But, there is one-way relationship between ASEAN Road Infrastructure and ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth in each member country of ASEAN, which ASEAN Road Infrastructure gives effect to ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth

scholarly journals Implication of Monetary Policy Rate and Interest Rate on Exchange Rate in Nigeria: 1981-2017

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Nnamani, Vincent ◽  
Anyanwaokoro, Mike
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The study investigated the implication of monetary policy rate on the exchange rate and interest rate in Nigeria, 1981-2017. Because of the above-stated problems, the specific objectives are to: Investigate the effect of monetary policy rate on the exchange rate in Nigeria, determine the effect of the monetary policy rate on interest rate in Nigeria. The analysis of error correction and autoregressive lags fully covers both long-run and short-run relationships of the variable under study. The statistical tool of analysis employed in the study is Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and Philips Peron method of stationary testing and structural breakpoint unit root test., these methods were employed to check the stationarity and breakpoint analysis of the time series data employed in this study. The study observed that monetary policy rate has a positive and significant effect on the exchange rate in Nigeria. It was also observed that the monetary policy rate has a positive and significant effect on the interest rate in Nigeria. Overall, our results indicated that the impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate was significant. There was a positive and significant relationship between monetary policy variables and exchange rate. The conclusion that is drawn from our results is that monetary policy remains an effective and potent tool for ensuring a stable exchange rate in Nigeria. The study recommended that monetary policy should be used to create a favourable investment environment by facilitating the emergence of market-based interest rate and exchange rate regimes which could attract domestic and foreign investments. Second; the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN) need to avoid ordination and balance between monetary and fiscal policies to ensure the smooth realization of monetary policy goals. Policy inconsistency or summersault to determine its policy impact before contemplating a change. Finally, there should be a coo.

scholarly journals Nigeria’s Fiscal Performance: Exploring the Role of Exchange Rate

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-26
Author(s):  
Fisayo Fagbemi ◽  
Olufemi Solomon Olatunde
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Exchange Rate Movement ◽  
Fiscal Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The paper offers empirical justifications for the instrumentality of external sector in influencing the fiscal position of a country through the exchange rate. In the study, ARDL bounds test approach to cointegration analysis is adopted to examine the long run and short run relationship between exchange rate and fiscal performance in Nigeria. The validity of the findings is based on time series data between 1981 and 2017. The emerging evidence reveals that the exchange rate movement has a substantial influence on the fiscal performance, as there exists a significant adverse relationship between exchange rate and fiscal deficit in the long run as well as in the short run, while the association between exchange rate and public debt is found to be significantly positive in both periods. Empirical elucidations posit that an appreciation of the exchange rate could lead to decreasing fiscal deficits. However, the exchange rate appreciation might not induce a reduction in public debt, as it could stimulate demand for loanable funds by the government, although such effect could be mitigated through strategic investment policy and subsidized funding schemes to aid domestic production. Given that fiscal performance is considerably driven or constrained by the exchange rate movement, the study suggests that developing a strategic framework for ensuring a realistic exchange rate and the mitigation of regular fluctuations or correcting inappropriate exchange rate is crucial.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Manufacturing Sector Value Added in Ethiopia: An Application of Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dagim Tadesse Bekele ◽  
Meskerem Teka Haile
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

The role of the manufacturing sector for the economic growth and structural change is very low in Ethiopia and performing less compering with that of the other sectors in the economy. So, this research tried to look at how different macroeconomic variables affect the manufacturing sector value added by using annual time series data from 1982 to 2018 estimated by Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL). The result from the Bound test shows manufacturing sector value added has a long-run relationship with macroeconomic variables in the model. In the long-run, general inflation rate, exchange rate, and trade openness have a significant negative effect on the manufacturing sector value-added. In contrast, general government expenditure has a significant positive effect. Also, the Error Correction model shows an adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium of the manufacturing sector value-added. So, the government has to control the general inflation level, promote demand for domestic manufacturing products and competitiveness of domestic firms, and strengthen the backward link of the sector to decrease its import-input dependency to reduce the effect of exchange rate depressions. Lastly, effective and efficient government expenditure will have to be used to increase the manufacturing sector value-added.

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