scholarly journals Behavior of Islamic and Conventional Holiday-Effect and Adaptive Market Hypothesis: A Firm Level Evidence from Emerging Market of Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-222
Author(s):  
Muhammad Naeem Shahid ◽  
Abdul Sattar ◽  
Faisal Aftab ◽  
Sumaira Aslam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Equal Length ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Holiday Effect ◽  
Daily Returns ◽  
Over Time

This study enhances the existing literature on the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) and calendar anomalies. The study is a first attempt to link the Islamic and conventional Holidays’ effect with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis that allows the performance of well-known Holiday Effect to fluctuate over time. To fulfil the purpose of the study, the daily returns of 107 individual firms listed in Pakistan Stock Exchange over the period of 20 years (from January 1996 to December 2015) are observed. To explore the varying degree of return predictability of Holiday Effect, the research utilizes four different subsamples comprising an equal length of observations of five years each. It is found that the behavior of the Holiday Effect evolves over time as the performance of this effect varies occasionally and is consistent with AMH. Finally, the paper proposes that the Adaptive Market Hypothesis is a well elucidation of the behavior of the Holiday Effect than traditional Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).

scholarly journals Financial Crises and Adaptive Market Hypothesis: An Evidence from International Commodities traded at New York Stock Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-81
Author(s):  
Muhammad Naeem Shahid ◽  
Khalid Latif ◽  
Ghulam Mujtaba Chaudhary ◽  
Shahid Adil
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
New York Stock Exchange ◽  
York Stock Exchange ◽  
Gold Metal ◽  
Daily Returns ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Commodities Markets

This study evaluates the varying degree of predictability of commodities return through empirical analysis of AMH (Adaptive Market Hypothesis). We divide daily returns data (from 1996 to 2013) of commodities indices (Gold, Metal, Oil& Silver) into different crisis periods. We subject all the subsamples to linear/nonlinear tests to reveal how market efficiency (independency of returns) has behaved over time. All the linear (except variance ratio) and nonlinear tests are evident that commodity indices returns have been predictable (dependent) in some crisis periods while unpredictable (dependence) in the others thus consistent with the implication of AMH. Therefore, commodities markets are adaptive markets. The findings suggest the behavior of commodities’ markets is best explained by AMH than conventional/traditional EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis).

scholarly journals Die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs as rasionele kapitaalmark

1981 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 53-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leon M. Brummer ◽  
Pieter J. Jacobs
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Small Degree ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Economic Point ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
Measure Of Dependence

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange as an efficient market. Finality has not yet been reached on the question whether the Johannesburg Stock Exchange complies with the requirements of the efficient market hypothesis. The results of the research that are published in this article is therefore an attempt to make a contribution to the debate regarding the Johannesburg Stock Exchange as an efficient market. By way of serial correlations as well as runs tests an investigation was carried out into the behaviour of the prices of 94 quoted shares for the period 1970 to 1977. The results of the study give rise to the conclusion that the Johannesburg Stock Exchange does not statistically comply with the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis (the random walk hypothesis), as a measure of dependence between successive price changes was found. Seen from an economic point of view it is, however, doubtful whether investors could use this small degree of dependence between price changes to gain higher returns on share investments.Uitsluitsel met betrekking tot die mate waartoe die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs aan die vereistes vir 'n rasionele mark voldoen, is nog nie verkry nie. Die resultate wat in hierdie artikel voorkom is daarom 'n poging om 'n bydrae in die debat rakende die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs as 'n rasionele mark, te maak. 'n Ondersoek na die markpryse van 94 genoteerde aandele vir die periode 1970-77 is deur middel van reekskorrelasiekoeffisiente en die lopietoets uitgevoer. Die resultate van die studie gee aanleiding tot die gevolgtrekking dat die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs nie statisties aan die swak vorm van die rasionele markhipotese (die willekeurige beweging van markpryse) voldoen nie, aangesien 'n mate van afhanklikheid tussen opeenvolgende prysveranderings gevind is. Uit 'n ekonomiese oogpunt gesien is dit egter twyfelagtig of beleggers hierdie afhanklikheid sal kan aanwend om hoer opbrengste op aandelebeleggings te bewerkstellig.

scholarly journals Sell in May and Go Away or Just Another January Effect? Studied of Anomaly in Indonesia Stock Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-56
Author(s):  
Restu Hayati ◽  
Mimelientesa Irman ◽  
Lintang Nur Agia
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
January Effect ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Risk And Return ◽  
High Return ◽  
Return Anomaly ◽  
The Relationship

Sell in May and go away is a phenomenon of return anomaly that starts in May and lasts until October. These months are called the worst months of stocks. Conversely, the months of November to April are often referred to as the best months of the stock where a higher rate of return is achieved throughout the year. Although it has not been proven academically, this phenomenon has been mentioned by various media in Indonesia such as Kontan, CNN Indonesia, and Tempo Business which are predicted to correct the JCI throughout 2017.  The purpose of this study is to prove the phenomenon of sell in May and go away on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, and find out whether the average best return of the month is affected by the high return in January.  The results prove that even though the average returns increase in November-April was due to the high return in January, but there was no sell in May and go away on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Under these conditions, the direction of the relationship between risk and return is the opposite that directs the Indonesia Stock Exchange to the efficient market hypothesis.

scholarly journals Efficient Market Hypotheses Controversy and Nigerian Stock Exchange Relations

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
General Meeting ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Price Series

This study; Nigerian Stock Exchange and Efficient Market Hypothesis was done using All Share Index (ASI) with daily data from January 02, 2014 to May 20, 2019 (1333 observations) and annual data from 1985 to 2018 (34 observations) collected from the Nigeria Stock Market fact books. The study employed three analytical methods namely the unit root test, GARCH Model and the Autocorrelation cum patial autocorrelation method for the assessment of weak form hypothesis on the daily and annual all share index in the Nigerian Stock market. The results of these evaluations indicated a significant relationship between the price series and their lagged values implying that stock price series do not follow a random walk process in Nigerian stock market. Thus, affirming that the Nigeria Stock Exchange is not efficient in weak form. In the light of this, the researchers recommend that the supervisory and regulatory authorities should strengthen the Nigerian Stock Market through palliating its regulations pertaining to transparency of information management rules such as market barriers and stringent listing requirement, publication of accounts, notices of annual general meeting and the like.

scholarly journals Efficient Market Hypothesis and Market Anomalies of LQ 45 Index in Indonesia Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Helma Malini
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Market Anomalies ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Year Effect

The paper attempts to investigate the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the existence of calendar effect on Indonesia Stock Exchange Market. Initially, this paper discusses types of EMH also the literature available regarding this topic. The sample of research is twenty one securities listed in LQ 45 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange Market (IDX), this paper applies non parametric tests which are Run test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Mann-Whitney test  parametric test which are series correlation test, One-way Anova test and independent t-test two sample. Based on the results of the test of this paper, it can be concluded that Weak Form Efficient Market exists in LQ 45 Index of IDX while Day of the Week Effect and Month of the Year Effect are not found to exist in LQ 45 Index of IDX. In conclusion, it is observed that the effect of stock prices for the sample companies on future prices is very meager and an investor cannot reap profits by using the historical share price data as the current share prices already reflect the effect of past share prices data.

scholarly journals Investigating inefficiencies of bookmaker odds in football using machine learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedikt Mangold ◽  
Johannes Stübinger
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Simulation Study ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Simple Machine ◽  
Football Betting ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Machine Learning Models

The efficient-market hypothesis states that it is impossible to beat the market, as the price reflects all available information. Applied to bookmaker odds for football games, there should not be a systematic way of winning money on the long run.However, we show that by using simple machine learning models we can systematically outperform the markets belief manifested through the bookmakers odds. The effect of this inefficiency is diminishing over time, which indicates that the knowledge that has been derived from and the pure amount of the data is also reflected in the odds in recent times.We give some insights how this effect differs across major football leagues in Europe, which algorithms are performing best and statistics on the ROI using machine learning in football betting. Additionally, we share how the simulation study has been designed in more detail.

scholarly journals Efficient Market Hypothesis And Stock Market Anomalies: Empirical Evidence In Four European Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Rossi ◽  
Ardi Gunardi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Market Anomalies ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Company Value ◽  
Calendar Anomalies ◽  
The Garch Model ◽  
New Millennium

The stock market efficiency is the idea that equity prices of listed companies reveal all the data regarding the company value (Fama, 1965). In this way, there isn’t possible to make additional returns. However, evidence against the Efficient Market Hypothesis is growing. Researchers studied Calendar Anomalies (CAs) that characterised financial markets. These CAs contradict the efficient hypothesis. This research studies some of the most important market anomalies in France, Germany, Italy and Spain stock exchange indexes in the first decade of new millennium (2001-2010). In this study, to verify the distribution of the returns and their auto correlation, we use statistical methods: the GARCH model and the OLS regression. The analysis doesn’t show strong proof of comprehensive Calendar Anomalies. Some of these effects are country-specific. Furthermore, these country-anomalies are instable in the first decade of new millennium, and this result demonstrates some doubt on the significance of CAs.

scholarly journals Entry, exit, ownership structure and the efficient market hypothesis: a case study of the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 315-325
Author(s):  
Vglingam Sivalingam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Theoretical Perspective ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Strong Form ◽  
Barriers To Entry ◽  
Kuala Lumpur ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Competitive Model

The objective of this paper is to provide a new theoretical perspective on testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE). Previous studies have shown that the KLSE is weak form efficient or at most semi strong form efficient. However, an adequate explanation has not been provided as to why the KLSE is not strong form efficient. The paper suggests that this is because the KLSE does not approximate the neoclassical competitive model in terms of entry, pricing and exit. There are barriers to entry and exit and hence to the free flow of accurate and complete information in the KLSE. The securities offered for sale are also underpriced as there is extensive government intervention to ensure adequate returns to investors. The market is also dominated by large government owned and family owned conglomerates. This together with a segmented market for three classes of investors, that is, the bumiputras, the other Malaysians and foreigners ensures that resources are not allowed to flow to their most value users and hence prices are not competitively set. The paper ends by noting that the KLSE is moving from a government dominated exchange for securities to a market system as a result of recent reforms and policy changes

scholarly journals Impact of return on long-memory data set of volatility of Dhaka Stock Exchange market with the role of financial institutions: an empirical analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 48-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mahboob Ali ◽  
Aviral Kumar Tiwari ◽  
Naveed Raza
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Long Memory ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Real Picture

The current study intends to empirically test a relationship between long-memory features in returns and volatility of Dhaka Stock Exchange market. As such, the study uses the ARFIMA-FIGARCH and FIPARCH structure for the daily data ranging from 15 December 2003 to July 31, 2013 of Dhaka Stock Exchange market index, i.e., DSE General Index (DGEN). The observed indication assembled from long-memory tests supports the occurrence of long memory in Bangladesh stock returns. The study aims at doing research work with long-memory data set, as it provides a superior strategy, as well as gives real picture with short-memory data set. Moreover, the backup indication for existence of long memory in both return and volatility denies the efficient market hypothesis of Fama (1970) that the future return and volatility values are unpredictable. Extra measures ought to be given for the smooth functioning of the Dhaka Stock Exchange market so that both individual and institutional investors can get congenial atmosphere to invest. Authors’ suggested that Bangladesh Bank must play vital role as share market of Bangladesh is dominated by banking shares and in case of other listed shares of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, market authority should deal with transparently and fairly so that the market can be transformed into strong efficient market. This requires suitable directives, groundwork, removing malpractices and also implementation of investors’ friendly decisions. Further, fiscal policy of the country should be pro investor friendly, as well as monetary policy should work as complementary towards investment at stock exchange market as suggested by the authors.

Inter-relationship between performance of Bursa Malaysia and foreign stock markets

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
T. Chantrathevi P. Thuraisingam ◽  
You Hoo Tew ◽  
Dalila Daud
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Asian Financial Crisis ◽  
Moderate Correlation ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽  
Daily Returns ◽  
Over Time

This paper explores the general perception that the Malaysian stock market is influenced by leading overseas stock markets. Employing correlation analysis comparison was made between the performance ofBiirsa Malaysia's Composite Index and six stock market indices namely Straits Times Index, Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225 Stock Average, Australia All Ordinaries Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and Financial Times 100 Index. This study also seeks to determine ifthere is any significant stability ofcorrelations over time. These indices were studied over a period offifteen years from I January 1990 to 31 December 2004, beginning with the cessation oftrading ofMalaysian shares on the Singapore stock exchange, which is synonymous with the pre-Asian financial crisis period, the crisis period and a post crisis period of almost five years. The study found that the, daily returns of the Composite Index over the period is positively co-related with the foreign indices indicating that the markets were moving in the same direction, in other words there is interdependency between the stock markets. However, the low to moderate correlation refutes the belief that the Malaysian stock market is influenced by the performance ofthe major stock markets. The study also found that generally the correlations are unstable over lime.    

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