scholarly journals Wind power plant forecasting and power prediction methods using Machine Learning Algorithms

A significant and eligible source such as wind energy has the potential for producing energy in a continuous and sustainable manner among renewable energy sources. However, wind energy has several challenges, such as initial investment costs, the stationary property of wind plants, and the difficulty in finding wind-efficient energy areas. In this study, wind power forecasting was performed based on daily wind speed data using machine learning algorithms. The proposed method is based on machine learning algorithms to forecast wind power values efficiently. Tests were conducted on data sets to reveal performances of machine learning algorithms. The results showed that machine learning algorithms could be used for forecasting long-term wind power values with respect to historical wind speed data. Furthermore, several machine learning models were built for analysis on the accuracy level of the respective models, i.e, the accuracy levels of the machine.

2021 ◽  
Vol 2141 (1) ◽  
pp. 012016
Author(s):  
Hao Chen ◽  
Yngve Birkelund

Abstract Wind power forecasting is crucial for wind power systems, grid load balance, maintenance, and grid operation optimization. The utilization of wind energy in the Arctic regions helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions in this environmentally vulnerable area. In the present study, eight various models, seven of which are representative machine learning algorithms, are used to make 1, 2, and 3 step hourly wind power predictions for five wind parks inside the Norwegian Arctic regions, and their performance is compared. Consequently, we recommend the persistence model, multilayer perceptron, and support vector regression for univariate time-series wind power forecasting within the time horizon of 3 hours.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer F. Newman ◽  
Andrew Clifton

Abstract. Remote sensing devices such as lidars are currently being investigated as alternatives to cup anemometers on meteorological towers. Although lidars can measure mean wind speeds at heights spanning an entire turbine rotor disk and can be easily moved from one location to another, they measure different values of turbulence than an instrument on a tower. Current methods for improving lidar turbulence estimates include the use of analytical turbulence models and expensive scanning lidars. While these methods provide accurate results in a research setting, they cannot be easily applied to smaller, commercially available lidars in locations where high-resolution sonic anemometer data are not available. Thus, there is clearly a need for a turbulence error reduction model that is simpler and more easily applicable to lidars that are used in the wind energy industry. In this work, a new turbulence error reduction algorithm for lidars is described. The algorithm, L-TERRA, can be applied using only data from a stand-alone commercially available lidar and requires minimal training with meteorological tower data. The basis of L-TERRA is a series of corrections that are applied to the lidar data to mitigate errors from instrument noise, volume averaging, and variance contamination. These corrections are applied in conjunction with a trained machine-learning model to improve turbulence estimates from a vertically profiling WINDCUBE v2 lidar. L-TERRA was tested on data from three sites – two in flat terrain and one in semicomplex terrain. L-TERRA significantly reduced errors in lidar turbulence at all three sites, even when the machine-learning portion of the model was trained on one site and applied to a different site. Errors in turbulence were then related to errors in power through the use of a power prediction model for a simulated 1.5 MW turbine. L-TERRA also reduced errors in power significantly at all three sites, although moderate power errors remained for periods when the mean wind speed was close to the rated wind speed of the turbine and periods when variance contamination had a large effect on the lidar turbulence error. Future work will include the use of a lidar simulator to better understand how different factors affect lidar turbulence error and to determine how these errors can be reduced using information from a stand-alone lidar.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Woollam ◽  
Jannes Münchmeyer ◽  
Carlo Giunchi ◽  
Dario Jozinovic ◽  
Tobias Diehl ◽  
...  

<p>Machine learning methods have seen widespread adoption within the seismological community in recent years due to their ability to effectively process large amounts of data, while equalling or surpassing the performance of human analysts or classic algorithms. In the wider machine learning world, for example in imaging applications, the open availability of extensive high-quality datasets for training, validation, and the benchmarking of competing algorithms is seen as a vital ingredient to the rapid progress observed throughout the last decade. Within seismology, vast catalogues of labelled data are readily available, but collecting the waveform data for millions of records and assessing the quality of training examples is a time-consuming, tedious process. The natural variability in source processes and seismic wave propagation also presents a critical problem during training. The performance of models trained on different regions, distance and magnitude ranges are not easily comparable. The inability to easily compare and contrast state-of-the-art machine learning-based detection techniques on varying seismic data sets is currently a barrier to further progress within this emerging field. We present SeisBench, an extensible open-source framework for training, benchmarking, and applying machine learning algorithms. SeisBench provides access to various benchmark data sets and models from literature, along with pre-trained model weights, through a unified API. Built to be extensible, and modular, SeisBench allows for the simple addition of new models and data sets, which can be easily interchanged with existing pre-trained models and benchmark data. Standardising the access of varying quality data, and metadata simplifies comparison workflows, enabling the development of more robust machine learning algorithms. We initially focus on phase detection, identification and picking, but the framework is designed to be extended for other purposes, for example direct estimation of event parameters. Users will be able to contribute their own benchmarks and (trained) models. In the future, it will thus be much easier to compare both the performance of new algorithms against published machine learning models/architectures and to check the performance of established algorithms against new data sets. We hope that the ease of validation and inter-model comparison enabled by SeisBench will serve as a catalyst for the development of the next generation of machine learning techniques within the seismological community. The SeisBench source code will be published with an open license and explicitly encourages community involvement.</p>


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 5196
Author(s):  
Upma Singh ◽  
Mohammad Rizwan ◽  
Muhannad Alaraj ◽  
Ibrahim Alsaidan

In the last few years, several countries have accomplished their determined renewable energy targets to achieve their future energy requirements with the foremost aim to encourage sustainable growth with reduced emissions, mainly through the implementation of wind and solar energy. In the present study, we propose and compare five optimized robust regression machine learning methods, namely, random forest, gradient boosting machine (GBM), k-nearest neighbor (kNN), decision-tree, and extra tree regression, which are applied to improve the forecasting accuracy of short-term wind energy generation in the Turkish wind farms, situated in the west of Turkey, on the basis of a historic data of the wind speed and direction. Polar diagrams are plotted and the impacts of input variables such as the wind speed and direction on the wind energy generation are examined. Scatter curves depicting relationships between the wind speed and the produced turbine power are plotted for all of the methods and the predicted average wind power is compared with the real average power from the turbine with the help of the plotted error curves. The results demonstrate the superior forecasting performance of the algorithm incorporating gradient boosting machine regression.


Author(s):  
Sergey Pronin ◽  
Mykhailo Miroshnichenko

A system for analyzing large data sets using machine learning algorithms


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