scholarly journals Interest Rate Pass-through in Pakistan: Evidence from Transfer Function Approach

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (4II) ◽  
pp. 975-1001
Author(s):  
Abdul Qayyum ◽  
Sajawal Khan ◽  
Idrees Khawaja
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Treasury Bills ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Market Rate ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Cost

The transmission of monetary policy through the interest rate mechanism has been thoroughly discussed in economic literature for quite some time. The traditional view is that, the change in real interest rate influences the cost of capital. The change in cost of capital affects the magnitude of investment and consumption and therefore the level of, real income and prices [Mishkin (1995)].1 Operationally the State bank of Pakistan, influences the yield on treasury bills (T-bills). This is done on the assumption that the yield on treasury bills influences other interest rates like the Money Market rate (Call money rate), banks’ deposit and banks’ Lending rates. The change in these rates influences the cost of capital and thus level of investment and consumption in the economy. Given this, the central bank can influence the yield on T-bills to influence the level of real income and the level of prices. The foregoing explanation of the monetary transmission mechanism makes it clear that if the changes in yield on the T-Bill rate are not passed on to the Call money rate and the bank deposit and the Lending rate then it becomes difficult for the central bank to use the channels that involve interest rate, for influencing the level of output and prices. Hence it is important to test whether the changes in the treasury bill rate are passed on to money market rate, bank deposit rate and the bank lending rate and if yes at what speed and to what extent. Therefore this study examines the pass-through of the changes in Treasury bill rate to Call Money rate, Banks’ deposit rate and Banks’ Lending rate.

scholarly journals Interest Rate Pass-Through: Empirical Study Towards Monetary Policy Transmission Effectiveness in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (02) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Heni Hasanah
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy

<p><em>This research aims to measure the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, especially through the interest rate channel. The analysis was conducted on the first stage of its transmission, namely Interest Rate Pass-through (IRPT). IRPT refers to condition in which retail interest rate (both deposit and lending rate) responds to changes in policy rate of central bank. IRPT was measured using Error Correction Model (ECM) for time series data in the period of January 2010 - December 2015. The results of this study indicated that degree of long term and short term IRPT is incomplete for deposit and lending rate. In addition, IRPT for deposit rate is higher than lending rate, but the adjustment process of lending rate faster than deposit rate. Finally, model that include other variables (macroeconomic and internal banking indicator) generate long term IRPT which is smaller than the standard model. This results implies that the Central Bank, the FSA, and government needs to pay attention to the stability of the other variables that may interfere or reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy through the interest channel.     </em></p><p><strong><em>JEL Classification: </em></strong>E42, E43, E52</p><strong><em>Keywords: </em></strong><em>Deposit rate, ECM,  IRPT, Lending Rate, Policy Rate</em>

scholarly journals Loom of Symmetric Pass-Through

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Afsin Sahin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
The Real ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
Lending Rates ◽  
Pass Through

This paper analyzes the effects of the real policy interest rate on the banking sector lending rate, the deposit rate, real stock prices, and the real exchange rate using the Engle Granger cointegration method (EG), the vector error-correction model (VECM), and the nonlinear vector error-correction model (NVECM) with monthly Turkish data over the period January 2002–April 2018. (1) EG results indicate bivariate cointegration relationships between the real interest rate, lending rates, and the deposit rate. The real interest rate increases all lending rates, mainly the housing rate. However, the long-run coefficient for the real exchange rate is not statistically significant. The pass-through is higher for the deposit rate than for lending rates. Moreoever, real stock prices shrink substantially where the finance sector has been affected the most. (2) VECM results indicate a cointegration relationship between all the variables except for the real exchange rate, which has a statistically non-significant pass-through coefficient. The real interest rate has a noteworthy long-run positive effect on the housing loans lending rate compared to others. The affirmative effect on real stock prices is the highest for the technology sector. The short-run effect of the real interest rate on lending rates, real stock prices and the real exchange rate are statistically non-significant except for the overall stock price index, and the vehicle loans lending rate which has a higher coefficient than the deposit rate. (3) NVECM results allow testing of eleven hypotheses and highlight the symmetric relationship and the valid pass-through effect, and reject the strong exogeneity assumption for all variables.

Pass-through of Change in Policy Interest Rate to Market Rates

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (4II) ◽  
pp. 661-674
Author(s):  
M. Idrees Khawaja ◽  
Sajawal Khan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Lag Structure ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Interest

Monetary policy has been aggressively used by the central Bank of Pakistan, in this decade, first to bolster growth and then to contain rampant inflation. Despite the sufficiently tight monetary policy that has remained in vogue in recent times, the inflation is still around 20 percent. This has raised questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy. One possible reason for the lesser effectiveness, if not failure, of monetary policy in taming inflation could be that in recent times, inflation was primarily supply driven and that the monetary tightening was in part offset by fiscal expansion, on the back of heavy bank borrowing by the government. However one cannot rule out the possibility that market imperfections might have also impeded the effectiveness of monetary policy in taming inflation to the desired extent. Incomplete and slow pass through of changes in policy interest rate to deposit rate and lending rate is a kind of imperfection that constrains the effectiveness of monetary policy. This study examines the pass through of policy interest rate to different market rates. Monetary theory predicts that the change in policy interest rate influences the cost capital which in turn influences consumption, savings, investments, and hence output. However if the impact of the change in policy rate on the cost of capital is less than one for one or if the change in policy rate fails to influence the cost capital immediately then the impact on output would become visible only with a certain lag and the impact would be less than one for one. This implies that if for example only 70 percent of the change in policy rate is passed on to cost of capital, then to manage an increase of 100 basis points in cost capital the policy rate should be raised by 143 basis points. This example serves to emphasise that for effective monetary management knowledge of the magnitude of passthrough of policy rate and the lag structure with which the policy rate influences cost of capital is important. Substantive empirical evidence confirms that changes in policy interest rate are transmitted to the output with a certain lag and that the pass-through of changes in policy rate to output or to other elements of the transmission channel may be less than one for one. Given the policy implications of the information, on the magnitude of pass through and the lag structure with which the policy rate influences different market rates, this Paper seeks to measure the pass-through of the changes in six month Treasury bill rate to six month KIBOR, six month weighted average deposit rate and weighted average lending rate. The study is focused on Pakistan.

scholarly journals ALUR TRANSMISI DAN EFEKTIFITAS KEBIJAKAN MONETER GANDA DI INDONESIA

2012 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 283-315
Author(s):  
Ascarya Ascarya
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
Data Form ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to investigate transmission mechanism of dual monetary system from conventional and Islamic policy rates to inflation and output using Granger and VAR methods on monthly Indonesian banking data form January 2003 to December 2009. The result shows that conventional transmission mechanismsfrom conventional policy rate are all linked tooutput and inflation, while Islamic policy rate are not linked to output and inflation.In addition, the interest rate, credit and conventional interbank rate shocks give negative and permanent impacts to inflation and output, while PLS, financing and Islamic interbank PLS, as well as SBIS(Central Bank Shariah Certificate) as Islamic policy rate shocks give positive and permanent impacts to inflation and output. SBI (Central Bank Certificate) as conventional policy givespositive impact to inflation and negative impact to output.Keywords: Monetary transmission mechanism, Interest rate pass through, Conventional Banking, Islamic BankingJEL Classification: E43, E52, G21, G28

Symmetric and asymmetric adjustment of bank deposit interest rates: empirical evidence from Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moses Nzuki Nyangu ◽  
Freshia Wangari Waweru ◽  
Nyankomo Marwa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asymmetric Adjustment ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adjustment Speed ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through

PurposeThis paper examines the sluggish adjustment of deposit interest rate categories with response to policy rate changes in a developing economy.Design/methodology/approachSymmetric and asymmetric error correction models (ECMs) are employed to test the pass-through effect and adjustment speed of deposit rates when above or below their equilibrium levels.FindingsThe findings reveal an incomplete pass-through effect in both the short run and long run while mixed results of symmetric and asymmetric adjustment speed across the different deposit rate categories are observed. Collusive pricing arrangement behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly upwards than downwards, while negative customer reaction behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly downwards than upwards.Practical implicationsEven though the findings indicate an aspect of increased responsiveness over the period, the sluggish adjustment of deposit rates imply that monetary policy is still ineffective and not uniform across the different deposit rate categories.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to empirically examine both symmetric and asymmetric adjustment behavior of deposit interest rate categories in Kenya. The findings are key to policy makers as they provide insights on how long it takes to adjust different deposit rate categories to monetary policy decisions. In addition, the behavior of deposit rates partly explains why interest rates capping was imposed in Kenya in 2016.

scholarly journals Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Bank Regulation, Capital Structure, and the Low-Risk Anomaly

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 315-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm Baker ◽  
Jeffrey Wurgler
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Structure Theory ◽  
Treasury Bills ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
The Cost

Traditional capital structure theory predicts that reducing banks' leverage reduces the risk and cost of equity but does not change the weighted average cost of capital, and thus the rates for borrowers. We confirm that the equity of better-capitalized banks has lower beta and idiosyncratic risk. However, over the last 40 years, lower risk banks have not had lower costs of equity (lower stock returns), consistent with a stock market anomaly previously documented in other samples. A calibration suggests that a binding ten percentage point increase in Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets could double banks' risk premia over Treasury bills.

Inside the Bank Box

2019 ◽  
pp. 368-405
Author(s):  
Leonardo Gambacorta ◽  
Paul Mizen
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Bank Lending Channel ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate

Central bank policy operates first through financial markets and then through banks as they adjust their interest rates. This chapter discusses the transmission of policy in this first step of the monetary transmission mechanism, known as interest-rate pass-through. Historically, the focus of attention has been the interest-rate channel. We show the origins of this channel via a microfounded model of interest-rate setting by deposit-taking institutions that are Cournot oligopolists facing adjustment costs. We then examine other channels such as the bank lending channel and the bank capital channel and the role of central bank communications, signaling, and forward guidance over future interest rates. Each is shown to influence the setting of current short-term interest rates. The chapter closes with some issues for the future of pass-through in the transmission process.

Bank competition and interest rate pass-through in the BRICS

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 471-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gideon Fadiran
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Research Output ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reaction Theory ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Customer Reaction

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine and compare the interest rate pass-through among the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews a general literature on interest rates pass-through by applying a cointegration and asymmetric mean adjustment lag (MAL) error correction methodology (ECM). Findings – A symmetric adjustment is found in Russia, China and South Africa's deposit rate, while an asymmetric adjustment is found in Brazil and India's deposit rate adjustments. The presence of a customer reaction theory is found in Brazil, India, China and South Africa's deposit rate adjustments, while a collusive pricing arrangement is found in Russia. From the lending rate adjustment, a collusive pricing arrangement was found in Brazil, China and South Africa, while a customer reaction theory was found in India and Russia. Research limitations/implications – The sample period used in the study covers a period starting from the formal recognition of BRIC (2001-2010), which limits the data length. Practical implications – The research output and implication can assist monetary policy makers, investors and consumers to monitor BRICS’ central banking, commercial banking and competition behaviour, individually and as a group. The BRICS are potentially heading towards a more financially integrated bloc as multilateral agreements among members increases. This is in the form of Letters of Credit and Memorandum of Understanding. These agreements should boost intra-BRICS financial transactions, investments and trade. Originality/value – This is, to the best of knowledge, the first analysis of BRICS interest rate pass-through using the asymmetric MAL ECM application.

scholarly journals ROBUST MONETARY POLICY IN A NEW KEYNESIAN MODEL WITH IMPERFECT INTEREST RATE PASS-THROUGH

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 1504-1526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Gerke ◽  
Felix Hammermann
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Model Misspecification ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Loan Rate ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Policy Shifts

We use robust control to study how a central bank in an economy with imperfect interest rate pass-through conducts monetary policy if it fears that its model could be misspecified. We find that, first, whether robust optimal monetary policy under commitment responds more cautiously or more aggressively depends crucially on the source of shock. Imperfect pass-through amplifies the robust policy. Second, if the central bank is concerned about uncertainty, it dampens volatility in the inflation rate preemptively but accepts higher volatility in the output gap and loan rate. However, for highly sticky loan rates, insurance against model misspecification becomes particularly pricy. Third, if the central bank fears uncertainty only in the IS equation or the loan rate equation, the robust policy shifts its concern for stabilization away from inflation.

scholarly journals Effects of Interest Rate on Stock Market Returns in Kenya

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Donald A. Otieno ◽  
Rose W. Ngugi ◽  
Nelson H. W. Wawire
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Treasury Bills ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
Short Run

Debate on the stochastic behaviour of stock market returns, 3-month Treasury Bills rate, lending rate and their cointegrating residuals remains unsettled. This study examines the stochastic properties of the macroeconomic variables, stock market returns and their cointegrating residuals using an Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model. It also investigates Granger causality between the two measures of interest rate and stock market returns. The study uses monthly data from 1st January 1993 to 31st December 2015. The results indicate that the 3-month Treasury Bills rate, lending rate and stock market returns are fractionally integrated which implies that shocks to the variables persist but eventually disappear. The results also reveal that the cointegrating residuals are fractionally integrated which suggests that a new and harmful long-run equilibrium might be established when each of the measures of interest rate is driven away from stock market returns. Additionally, the results indicate that the 3-month Treasury Bills rate and lending rate negatively Granger cause stock market returns in the long run. This suggests that stocks and Treasury Bills are competing investment assets. On the other hand, ARFIMA-based Granger causality reveals that stock market returns lead the 3-month Treasury Bills rate and lending rate with a negative sign in the short run. This implies that a prosperous stock market results into a favorable macroeconomic environment. A key contribution of this study is that it is the first to empirically examine fractional cointegration and ARFIMA-based Granger Causality between interest rate and stock market returns in Kenya.

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