scholarly journals A New Approach to Assess Wind Potential

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Function ◽  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Cumulative Distribution Function ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
New Method ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Wind Distribution

<p>Weibull Cumulative Distribution Function (C.D.F.) has been employed to assess and compare wind potentials of two wind stations Europlatform and Stavenisse of The Netherland. Weibull distribution has been used for accurate estimation of wind energy potential for a long time. The Weibull distribution with two parameters is suitable for modeling wind data if wind distribution is unimodal. Whereas wind distribution is generally unimodal, random weather changes can make the distribution bimodal. It is always desirable to find a method that accurately represents actual statistical data. Some well-known statistical methods are Method of Moment (MoM), Linear Least Square Method (LLSM), Maximum Likelihood Method (M.L.M.), Modified Maximum Likelihood Method (MMLM), Energy Pattern Factor Method (EPFM), and Empirical Method (E.M.), etc. All these methods employ Probability Density Function (PDF) of Weibull distribution, except LLSM, which uses Cumulative Distribution Function (C.D.F.). In this communication, we are presenting a newly proposed method of evaluating Weibull parameters. Unlike most methods, this new method employs a cumulative distribution function. A MATLAB® GUI-based simulation is developed to estimate Weibull parameters using the C.D.F. approach. It is found that the Mean Square Error (M.S.E.) is the lowest when using the new method. The new method, therefore, estimates wind power density with reasonable accuracy. Wind Power (W.P.) is estimated by considering four different Wind Turbine (W.T.) models for two sites, and maximum W.P. is found using Evance R9000.</p>

scholarly journals Best estimation for the Reliability of 2-parameter Weibull Distribution

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 705-710
Author(s):  
Baghdad Science Journal
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Statistical Criterion ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Simulation Process ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Two Parameter

This Research Tries To Investigate The Problem Of Estimating The Reliability Of Two Parameter Weibull Distribution,By Using Maximum Likelihood Method, And White Method. The Comparison Is done Through Simulation Process Depending On Three Choices Of Models (?=0.8 , ß=0.9) , (?=1.2 , ß=1.5) and (?=2.5 , ß=2). And Sample Size n=10 , 70, 150 We Use the Statistical Criterion Based On the Mean Square Error (MSE) For Comparison Amongst The Methods.

scholarly journals Results of the Verification of the Statistical Distribution Model of Microseismicity Emission Characteristics

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 489-496
Author(s):  
Aleksander Cianciara
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Function ◽  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Cumulative Distribution Function ◽  
Statistical Distribution ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Emission Characteristics ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Empirical Cumulative Distribution Function

Abstract The paper presents the results of research aimed at verifying the hypothesis that the Weibull distribution is an appropriate statistical distribution model of microseismicity emission characteristics, namely: energy of phenomena and inter-event time. It is understood that the emission under consideration is induced by the natural rock mass fracturing. Because the recorded emission contain noise, therefore, it is subjected to an appropriate filtering. The study has been conducted using the method of statistical verification of null hypothesis that the Weibull distribution fits the empirical cumulative distribution function. As the model describing the cumulative distribution function is given in an analytical form, its verification may be performed using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. Interpretations by means of probabilistic methods require specifying the correct model describing the statistical distribution of data. Because in these methods measurement data are not used directly, but their statistical distributions, e.g., in the method based on the hazard analysis, or in that that uses maximum value statistics.

scholarly journals On a Special Weighted Version of the Odd Weibull-Generated Class of Distributions

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Zichuan Mi ◽  
Saddam Hussain ◽  
Christophe Chesneau
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Function ◽  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Probability Density ◽  
Hazard Rate ◽  
Cumulative Distribution Function ◽  
Data Fitting ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
New Class

In recent advances in distribution theory, the Weibull distribution has often been used to generate new classes of univariate continuous distributions. They find many applications in important disciplines such as medicine, biology, engineering, economics, informatics, and finance; their usefulness is synonymous with success. In this study, a new Weibull-generated-type class is presented, called the weighted odd Weibull generated class. Its definition is based on a cumulative distribution function, which combines a specific weighted odd function with the cumulative distribution function of the Weibull distribution. This weighted function was chosen to make the new class a real alternative in the first-order stochastic sense to two of the most famous existing Weibull generated classes: the Weibull-G and Weibull-H classes. Its mathematical properties are provided, leading to the study of various probabilistic functions and measures of interest. In a consequent part of the study, the focus is on a special three-parameter survival distribution of the new class defined with the standard exponential distribution as a reference. The exploratory analysis reveals a high level of adaptability of the corresponding probability density and hazard rate functions; the curves of the probability density function can be decreasing, reversed N shaped, and unimodal with heterogeneous skewness and tail weight properties, and the curves of the hazard rate function demonstrate increasing, decreasing, almost constant, and bathtub shapes. These qualities are often required for diverse data fitting purposes. In light of the above, the corresponding data fitting methodology has been developed; we estimate the model parameters via the likelihood function maximization method, the efficiency of which is proven by a detailed simulation study. Then, the new model is applied to engineering and environmental data, surpassing several generalizations or extensions of the exponential model, including some derived from established Weibull-generated classes; the Weibull-G and Weibull-H classes are considered. Standard criteria give credit to the proposed model; for the considered data, it is considered the best.

A python program to model and analyze wind speed data

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 769-784
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Weibull Function ◽  
Method Of Moment ◽  
Wind Speed Data ◽  
Statistical Errors ◽  
Wind Potential ◽  
Wind Distribution

A python program has been developed to analyze wind distributions using the Weibull density function. A two-parameter Weibull function is frequently used to model and assess wind potential and wind distribution. This python program finds first Weibull parameters from the recorded wind data by five different methods, namely, Empirical Method(EPM), Method of Moment (MoM), Energy Pattern Factor Method (EPFM), Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM), Modified Maximum Likelihood Method (MMLM), the parameters are then used to find theoretically fitted pdfs. The program is implemented on wind distribution of two cities of Pakistan (Chakri and Sadiq Abad). The program-generated pdfs were plotted with the histogram of recorded data, the fitting was excellent. To check the validity of the fitted pdfs, statistical errors Root Mean Square (RMSE), MeanAbsolute Percent Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MABE), and Chi-square statistic are calculated. In all cases,these statistical errors are well below the acceptance range. Both pictorial results and numerical values of statistical errors indicate the performance of the python program to analyze wind speed data

Reliability Analysis of a Small Pneumatic Cylinder Life

2011 ◽  
Vol 110-116 ◽  
pp. 4240-4245
Author(s):  
Jun Zhao Zhang ◽  
Cong Ling Wang ◽  
Xue Fa Fang
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Pneumatic Cylinder ◽  
Life Test ◽  
Life Distribution ◽  
Median Rank ◽  
Distribution Parameters

The reliability of the pneumatic cylinder was investigated by routine life test. The results show that the failures of the pneumatic cylinder can be described as a Weibull distribution and fatigue fracture of the aluminum end cap and the head of install bolt is the major failure for the pneumatic cylinder. The pneumatic cylinder life distribution parameters were estimated by the median rank method in combination with maximum likelihood method. The distribution model for the reliability of the pneumatic cylinder was also proposed here.

THE EXACT CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION OF A RATIO OF QUADRATIC FORMS IN NORMAL VARIABLES, WITH APPLICATION TO THE AR(1) MODEL

2002 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 823-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Forchini
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Function ◽  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimator ◽  
Quadratic Forms ◽  
Cumulative Distribution Function ◽  
Closed Form Solution ◽  
Form Solution ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Likelihood Estimator ◽  
Start Up

Often neither the exact density nor the exact cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) of a statistic of interest is available in the statistics and econometrics literature (e.g., the maximum likelihood estimator of the autocorrelation coefficient in a simple Gaussian AR(1) model with zero start-up value). In other cases the exact c.d.f. of a statistic of interest is very complicated despite the statistic being “simple” (e.g., the circular serial correlation coefficient, or a quadratic form of a vector uniformly distributed over the unit n-sphere). The first part of the paper tries to explain why this is the case by studying the analytic properties of the c.d.f. of a statistic under very general assumptions. Differential geometric considerations show that there can be points where the c.d.f. of a given statistic is not analytic, and such points do not depend on the parameters of the model but only on the properties of the statistic itself. The second part of the paper derives the exact c.d.f. of a ratio of quadratic forms in normal variables, and for the first time a closed form solution is found. These results are then specialized to the maximum likelihood estimator of the autoregressive parameter in a Gaussian AR(1) model with zero start-up value, which is shown to have precisely those properties highlighted in the first part of the paper.

Application of differential evolution for wind speed distribution parameters estimation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0309524X2199996
Author(s):  
Rajesh Kumar ◽  
Arun Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Speed Distribution ◽  
De Algorithm ◽  
Wind Speed Distribution ◽  
Distribution Parameters

Weibull distribution is an extensively used statistical distribution for analyzing wind speed and determining energy potential studies. Estimation of the wind speed distribution parameter is essential as it significantly affects the success of Weibull distribution application to wind energy. Various estimation methods viz. graphical method, moment method (MM), maximum likelihood method (ML), modified maximum likelihood method, and energy pattern factor method or power density method have been presented in various reported research studies for accurate estimation of distribution parameters. ML is the most preferred approach to study the parameter estimation. ML works on the principle of forming a likelihood function and maximizing the function for parameter estimation. ML generally uses the numerical based iterative method, such as Newton–Raphson. However, the iterative methods proposed in the literature are generally computationally intensive. In this paper, an efficient technique utilizing differential evolution (DE) algorithm to enhance the estimation accuracy of maximum likelihood estimation has been presented. The [Formula: see text] of GA-Weibull, SA-Weibull, and DE-Weibull is 0.958, 0.953, and 0.973 respectively, and value of RMSE of DE-Weibull 0.0083, GA-Weibull (0.0104), and SA-Weibull (0.0110), for the yearly wind speed data are obtained. The lowest root mean square error and larger regression value for both monthly and yearly wind speed data indicate that the DE-Weibull distribution has the best goodness of fit and advocate the DE algorithm for the parameter estimation.

scholarly journals ANALISIS MODEL PELUANG BERTAHAN HIDUP (SURVIVAL) DAN APLIKASINYA

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
S. FAJARIYAH ◽  
H. SUMARNO ◽  
N. K. K. ARDANA
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Life Table ◽  
Survival Data ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Survival Function ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Real Distribution ◽  
Life Table Data ◽  
Table Data

Up till now, models of demography mathematics usually use discrete approximation. This research will use continue approximation agree with demography characteristic that always change every times.  The Maximum Likelihood method is chosen by using five distributions. There are two data that use i.e. hypothetic data and life table data of Banten. The result of hypothetic data shows that if we choose real distribution, it will produce the good value of 2 R , whereas with survival data of Banten. The result shows that Weibull distribution is the best from another distributions. Keywords: survival function, maximum likelihood method.

scholarly journals Truncated Akash distribution: properties and applications

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 179-184
Author(s):  
Kamlesh Kumar Shukla
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Coefficient Of Variation ◽  
Hazard Rate ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Rate Functions ◽  
Mean And Variance

In this paper, Truncated Akash distribution has been proposed. Its mean and variance have been derived. Nature of cumulative distribution and hazard rate functions have been derived and presented graphically. Its moments including Coefficient of Variation, Skenwness, Kurtosis and Index of dispersion have been derived. Maximum likelihood method of estimation has been used to estimate the parameter of proposed model. It has been applied on three data sets and compares its superiority over one parameter exponential, Lindley, Akash, Ishita and truncated Lindley distribution.

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