scholarly journals The environmental effects of global changes on northeast central Europe in the case of non-modified agricultural management

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hubert Wiggering ◽  
Frank Eulenstein ◽  
Wilfried Mirschel ◽  
Matthias Willms ◽  
Claus Dalchow ◽  
...  

Climate impact scenarios for agriculture usually consider yield development, landscape water balance, nutrient dynamics or the endangerment of habitats separately. Scenario results are further limited by roughly discriminated land use types at low spatial resolution or they are restricted to single sites and isolated crops. Here, we exemplify a well data based comprehensive sensitivity analysis of a drought endangered agrarian region in Northeast Germany using a 2050 climate scenario. Coherently modelled results on water balance and yields indicate that agricultural production may persist, whereas wetlands and groundwater production will be negatively affected. The average percolation rate decreases from 143 mm a-1 to 12 mm a-1, and the average yield decline broken down by crops ranges from 4% for summer wheat to 14% for potatoes (main cereals: 5%).

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 915-925 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric D. White ◽  
Zachary M. Easton ◽  
Daniel R. Fuka ◽  
Amy S. Collick ◽  
Enyew Adgo ◽  
...  

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 182
Author(s):  
Maksym Łaszewski ◽  
Michał Fedorczyk ◽  
Sylwia Gołaszewska ◽  
Zuzanna Kieliszek ◽  
Paulina Maciejewska ◽  
...  

The influence of landscape on nutrient dynamics in rivers constitutes an important research issue because of its significance with regard to water and land management. In the current study spatial and temporal variability of N-NO3 and P-PO4 concentrations and their landscape dependence was documented in the Świder River catchment in central Poland. From April 2019 to March 2020, water samples were collected from fourteen streams in the monthly timescale and the concentrations of N-NO3 and P-PO4 were correlated with land cover metrics based on the Corine Land Cover 2018 and Sentinel 2 Global Land Cover datasets. It was documented that agricultural lands and forests have a clear seasonal impact on N-NO3 concentrations, whereas the effect of meadows was weak and its direction was dependent on the dataset. The application of buffer zones metrics increased the correlation performance, whereas Euclidean distance scaling improved correlation mainly for forest datasets. The concentration of P-PO4 was not significantly related with land cover metrics, as their dynamics were driven mainly by hydrological conditions. The obtained results provided a new insight into landscape–water quality relationships in lowland agricultural landscape, with a special focus on evaluating the predictive performance of different land cover metrics and datasets.


2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 619-635 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Köplin ◽  
B. Schädler ◽  
D. Viviroli ◽  
R. Weingartner

Abstract. Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios were derived from ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project. Their respective temperature and precipitation changes between the scenario period (2074–2095) and the control period (1984–2005) were used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest) was assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland were analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51%) and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area). The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as changes in evaporation or soil moisture are concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchments with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in this study, though, is the climate scenario and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in the impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e., a humid, mid-latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael G. Walsh ◽  
Allard W. de Smalen ◽  
Siobhan M. Mor

AbstractClimate change is impacting ecosystem structure and function, with potentially drastic downstream effects on human and animal health. Emerging zoonotic diseases are expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate and biodiversity disturbance. Anthrax is an archetypal zoonosis that manifests its most significant burden on vulnerable pastoralist communities. The current study sought to investigate the influence of temperature increases on the landscape suitability of anthrax in the temperate, boreal, and arctic North, where observed climate impact has been rapid. This study also explored the influence of climate relative to more traditional factors, such as livestock distribution, ungulate biodiversity, and soil-water balance, in demarcating high risk landscapes. Machine learning was used to model landscape suitability as the ecological niche of anthrax in northern latitudes. The model identified climate, livestock density and wild ungulate species richness as the most influential landscape features in predicting suitability. These findings highlight the significance of warming temperatures for anthrax ecology in northern latitudes, and suggest potential mitigating effects of interventions targeting megafauna biodiversity conservation in grassland ecosystems, and animal health promotion among small to midsize livestock herds.Significance StatementWe present evidence that a warming climate may be associated with the current distribution of anthrax risk in the temperate, boreal, and arctic North. Moreover, projected warming over the coming decades was associated with substantive expansion of this risk. In addition, livestock distribution, ungulate biodiversity, and soil-water balance were also influential to anthrax risk. While these results are sobering for the future health of livestock and pastoralist communities in the northern latitudes, the coincident modulating effect of ungulate biodiversity may suggest targeted ecosystem conservation as a possible buffer against a growing anthrax niche.


2009 ◽  
Vol 49 (10) ◽  
pp. 869 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Bridle ◽  
Margy Fitzgerald ◽  
David Green ◽  
Janet Smith ◽  
Peter McQuillan ◽  
...  

A collaborative project between researchers, regional natural resource management organisations and landholders set out to explore three questions about the relationships between biodiversity and land use in Australia’s mixed-farming landscapes: (1) the extent to which farm-scale measures of biodiversity were related to agricultural production; (2) the influence of the type and intensity of agricultural production on native biodiversity on farms; and (3) the relative influence of site and farming system on selected measures of biodiversity. Four land-use types on 47 mixed farms across nine regions, derived from several of Australia’s 56 natural resource management regions, were surveyed in autumn and spring 2006 and 2007. Surveys of birds, surface invertebrates (beetles, ants, spiders), vegetation and soils were undertaken on four land classes on each farm; crop, ‘rotation’ (break crop/pasture phase), perennial pasture and remnant vegetation. Data were collected by participating regional staff, using a standard protocol, which were sent to a central collection point for collation, analysis and interpretation. Species richness, functional diversity and vegetation structure were assessed. This introductory paper focuses on results relating to species richness, which for most taxa was greater in remnant vegetation than other land-use classes and declined along a disturbance gradient (remnant, pasture, rotation, crop). Properties with a greater proportion of perennial pastures recorded higher species richness than properties that were dominated by crop. Properties that recorded high wheat yields (t/ha) also recorded lower species richness for spiders and birds. The presence of insectivorous birds and beneficial invertebrates (spiders, beetles and ants) in all land-use classes suggests the potential to apply integrated pest management approaches to mixed-farming systems across the country. Site and system features were found to be important determinants of biodiversity, with their relative importance varying with the scale of investigation and the taxa. At the landscape scale, bird species richness was correlated with the amount of remnant vegetation within a 5-km radius of the farm boundary, and with the condition of native vegetation on the farm. The average size of remnant vegetation patches was 5 ha or less on nearly half of the properties surveyed. At the farm scale, ant species richness was correlated with site features, while beetles were correlated with management/system features such as the presence and fertility of perennial pastures. Analyses at the functional group level will provide more detailed information on relationships between different land-use types. Further experimental work needs to be undertaken to qualify the suggested impact of land management practices on different taxa, while repeated surveys will allow for the collation of datasets over time, from which population dynamics may be determined.


2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 5983-6021 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Köplin ◽  
B. Schädler ◽  
D. Viviroli ◽  
R. Weingartner

Abstract. Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios consist of ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project; their respective temperature and precipitation deltas are used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest) is assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland are analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51%) and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area). The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as evaporation or soil moisture is concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchment with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact studies is the climate scenario, though, and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e. a humid, mid-latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems.


Author(s):  
Yu. O. Tararico ◽  
R. V. Saidak ◽  
Yu. V. Soroka

Relevance of research. In order to ensure energy independence and food security of the state in the context of current climate change trends, the importance of reclaimed territories is increasing. By objectively assessing the agro-resource potential of individual regions and developing a strategy for its rational use, it is possible to significantly improve the productivity, stability, environmental balance and economic efficiency of agro-ecosystems. Objective of research. The objective of the research is to assess the water supply of the territory of Ukraine under changing climate and establish the mechanism of its influence on the bioproductivity of agricultural lands, theoretically substantiate and elaborate perspective options for the development of bioenergy reclaimed agroecosystems and specify the research areas on the reassessment of rational use of water resources in optimal combination with other components of agricultural production in a rapidly changing climate. Research methodology. The estimation and forecasting of the conditions of water supply were carried out on the basis of the climate water balance (CWB). Spatial analysis of climate data and crop yields was performed by IDW interpolation using QGIS3 software. To determine the promising areas for the development of agricultural production systems the results of stationary field experiments were used, which were processed by conventional methods of system analysis. Promising scenarios for the development of reclaimed agroecosystems were created using multivariate computer simulation in the “Agroecosystem” software package. Research results and main conclusions. It was established that, compared to 1961-1990, the area with a water supply shortage increased from 56 to 60%, and the area of sufficient and excessive humidity, on the contrary, decreased from 33 to 24%. Provided that the general trend of increasing temperature in the territory of Ukraine continues, the share of agricultural lands with scarce water balance by 2050 may increase up to 67%, and by 2100 – up to 80% of their total area. It was found that grain production remains at the level of 1990 in the steppe zone due to almost annual lack of moisture while in the forest-steppe and Polissia regions it increased up to 80-90%. It is important that, even in the humid zone, the risks of adverse water and air conditions for soils increased significantly, particularly as regards the soils of light texture. Consequently, sustainable high-yield agriculture without the development and implementation of effective regional measures on improving water supply is becoming problematic in most of Ukraine. Based on computer simulation, it was proved that the transition of domestic agricultural production to the principles of balanced organic food production, industrial raw materials and bioenergy resources will dramatically increase the profitability of agricultural enterprises, improve the ecological state of the environment and create a comfortable living environment for rural population and substantially strengthen the food security and energy independence of the state. Prospects. To achieve high efficiency and competitiveness of the agroindustrial complex of Ukraine, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive study on the reassessment of rational use of water resources in optimal combination with other components of agricultural production under rapidly changing climate. On this scientific basis, it is advisable to create a unified system of water management for the effective use of the state's land fund, in particular the reclaimed areas.


2020 ◽  
Vol 261 ◽  
pp. 108908 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Sanjuan-Delmás ◽  
Alejandro Josa ◽  
Pere Muñoz ◽  
Santiago Gassó ◽  
Joan Rieradevall ◽  
...  

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