Pengaruh ACFTA, PDB dan Kurs Terhadap Impor Barang Asal Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Fachrudin ◽  
Wahyu Hidayat Halimun Syah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
Positive Effect

ABSTRACTThe main objective of this research is to see the effect of the ACFTA free trade policy, gross domestic product (GDP), and the real exchange rate on imports of goods from the People's Republic of China (PRC). This study uses monthly data from January 2008 to September 2019. This study uses the reference to the introduction to import duties at the Normal Track stage starting on January 1, 2010, as the effective period of the ACFTA's implementation. The analytical method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with the Bounds Test cointegration approach. The results show that simultaneously, both in the long and short term, ACFTA, Indonesia's real GDP, and the real exchange rate affect imports of goods from PRC. Partially, in the long run, ACFTA and real GDP have a positive effect on imports of goods from PRC, while the real exchange rate does not affect imports of goods from PRC. In the short term, real GDP and the real exchange rate have a positive effect on imports of goods from PRC, while ACFTA does not affect. In addition, the results also show that the increase in imports of goods from PRC was mainly stimulated by an increase in national income (real GDP) with an elasticity of 1.90 in the short term and 1.49 in the long term. The implications of this research for the Government can be used to formulate a national strategy for the import substitution industry.Keywords: imports, free trade, ACFTA, gross domestic product, real exchange rates, ARDL Bounds Test.ABSTRAKTujuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah untuk melihat pengaruh kebijakan perdagangan bebas ACFTA, produk domestik bruto (PDB) dan kurs riil terhadap impor barang asal Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT). Penelitian ini menggunakan data bulanan dari Januari 2008 sampai September 2019 sebagai periode efektif berlakunya ACFTA. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dengan pendekatan kointegrasi Bounds Test. Secara simultan, baik pada jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek, ACFTA, PDB riil Indonesia dan kurs riil berpengaruh terhadap impor barang asal RRT. Secara parsial, dalam jangka panjang ACFTA dan PDB riil memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap impor barang asal RRT, sementara kurs riil tidak berpengaruh terhadap impor barang asal RRT. Dalam jangka pendek, PDB riil dan kurs riil berpengaruh positif terhadap impor barang asal RRT, sedangkan ACFTA tidak berpengaruh. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan impor barang asal RRT secara utama distimulasi oleh peningkatan pendapatan nasional (PDB riil) dengan tingkat elastisitas sebesar 1,90 pada jangka pendek dan 1,49 pada jangka panjang. Implikasi penelitian ini bagi Pemerintah dapat digunakan untuk menyusun strategi nasional industri substitusi barang impor.Kata kunci: impor, perdagangan bebas, ACFTA, produk domestik bruto, kurs riil, ARDL Bounds Test

scholarly journals THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM MALAYSIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 59 (02) ◽  
pp. 1450016
Author(s):  
WONG HOCK TSEN
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Exchange Rate Determination ◽  
The Real ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Productivity Differential

This study examines the real exchange rate determination in Malaysia. The result of the autoregressive distributed lag approach shows that an increase in the real interest rate differential, productivity differential, the real oil price or reserve differential will lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate in the long run. The real oil price and reserve differential are important in the real exchange rate determination. The dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator shows about the same conclusion of the autoregressive distributed lag approach. The result of the generalized forecast error variance decomposition shows that the real interest rate differential, productivity differential, the real oil price and reserve differential are generally important to the real exchange rate determination.

scholarly journals Analysis of The Effect of Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rate, and Inflation on Balance of Payments in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 361-374
Author(s):  
Muammar Rinaldi ◽  
Shinta Arida Hutagalung ◽  
Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aims to analyze the effect of the short and long term gross domestic product, exchange rate, and inflation on Indonesia's balance of payments. The data used in this study are secondary data which is obtained indirectly with the period of 1995 to 2015. Data sources were obtained from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The data collection method used in this study with the indirect method is documentation through recording or copying data from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The analysis model used is Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The results of this study indicate that the regression model of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the long term and Error Correction Model (ECM) regarding the effect of independent variables such as Interest Rates, Gross Domestic Product and Inflation Against the Dependent dependent variable in Indonesia, then it can some conclusions are presented, namely from several independent variables that are tried and included in the savings equation in Indonesia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the long term and Error Correction Model (ECM) for the short term, namely the gross domestic product variable, the inflation rate, and exchange rate. In the long run there are 2 (two) significant variables, namely gross domestic product and the exchange rate. While inflation is not significant. For the short term, there is 1 (one) significant variable, namely the exchange rate. Thus, only exchange rate variables are significant in both the short and long term. With only 1 (one) significant independent variable both in the long term and short term, it can be concluded that the exchange rate in the long term and short term is the main determining factor that affects the Balance of Payments in Indonesia. In the long run, Independent variables such as Gross Domestic Product and the exchange rate on the dependent variable Balance of Payments in Indonesia have a significant effect on the dependent variable Balance of Payments. Whereas in the short run, the exchange rate variable has a significant effect, and for other independent variables such as the GDP variable and the inflation rate does not have a significant effect.

scholarly journals The Short and Long Run Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 45-65
Author(s):  
Oludayo Elijah Adekunle
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment Inflow ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

What determines foreign direct investment inflows has been a subject of controversies among scholars. As a result of the highlighted gap discussed in this study, the short and long run determinants of foreign direct investment and their effects on foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria was investigated from 1986 to 2018. Data were analyzed with Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Philip Perron unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Pairwise Granger Causality techniques. Evidence of long run dynamic equilibrium relationship was established between foreign direct investment and its determinants. The short and long run coefficients revealed that government capital expenditure and inflation impede the inflow of foreign direct investment both in the short and long run while exchange rate serve as bane to foreign direct investment in the long run. However, gross domestic product and trade openness were found to stimulate the inflow of foreign direct investment in the short and long run. The Pairwise causality result revealed that government capital expenditure, exchange rate and trade openness had independent causality with foreign direct investment while gross domestic product and inflation rate had unidirectional causality with foreign direct investment. Thus, government should allocate more funds for the provision of enabling and investment enhancing environment to promote foreign direct investment inflow. The study added value to previous studies by estimating the short and long run determinants of foreign direct investment using more dynamic and robust technique of Autoregressive Distributed Lag developed by Peseran and Shin (1999). JEL Codes: C32, F21.

scholarly journals Testing the Effects of Real Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Unemployment in Brazil

Economies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ojonugwa Usman ◽  
Osama Elsalih
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Real ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Linearity Test

This paper attempts to test the pass-through of the real exchange rate (RERT) to unemployment in Brazil over the period 1981M1–2015M11 using linear and nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. The result of the linearity test suggests that the relationship between RERT and unemployment is linear in the short-run and nonlinear in the long-run. Therefore, using the symmetric ARDL model for the short-run analysis, we find that an increase in the RERT decreases the unemployment rate. The result of the nonlinear ARDL for the long-run analysis shows that the unemployment rate reacts to the RERT appreciations and depreciations differently with depreciations having a strong effect. However, the pass-through of the RERT to unemployment is incomplete both in the short- and long-run. These findings have important policy implications for the designing of appropriate monetary policy in response to a rise in unemployment resulting from a change in the real exchange rate.

scholarly journals Autoregressive Distributed Lag Kurs Dan Ekspor Karet Remah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Nulhanuddin Nulhanuddin ◽  
Devi Andriyani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crumb Rubber ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach

This study aims to determine the effect of short-term and long-term exchange rates and crumb rubber exports on the economic growth of Indonesia. The data used are secondary data for 39 years from 1980 to 2018 accessed on www.world.bank.wdi.data.bank.org, www.pertanian.go.id, www.bps.go.id, and www.bps.go.id. The data analysis method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with the help of EViews 10 software. The results show that the economic growth is stationary at the level and exchange rate and exports of stationary crumb rubber at the first difference level and have cointegration in the long-term relationship. The test results in the short-term analysis of the exchange rate have a positive and significant effect, and exports have a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth, while in the long run, the exchange rate has a negative effect but insignificant, and exports have a positive but insignificant effect on the economic growth of Indonesia. Keywords:economic growth, exchange rates, exports and the ARDL approach.  

An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real exchange rate and net FDI inflows in Mauritius

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashok Babubudjnauth ◽  
Boopendra Seetanah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Time Series Methodology ◽  
Official Sources ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to find out the impact of real exchange rate on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mauritius. Design/methodology/approach Autoregressive distributed lag time series methodology is used. Findings Real exchange rate depreciation enhances inflows of FDI in both the short and long run. Originality/value The research is original, and data used are from official sources.

scholarly journals Indonesian Export Analysis: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Syarifah Labibah ◽  
Abd. Jamal ◽  
Taufiq C. Dawood
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Auto Regressive

There are some factors predicted tohave an effect on the countries’ economic devlopment. This study aimed to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of In-flation, Exchange Rate, and Foreign Economic Growth (the destination of the United States, China, and Japan) on the Indonesian Export. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model is used in this analysis from 1968 through 2017. The results of the analysis show that in the long-term, the inflation and the economic growth in China as well in Japan has a positive sign and significant effect on Indonesian exports. In addition, in the short-term, the US exchange rate and economic growth have a positive significant effect on Indonesian exports.

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