scholarly journals Using the Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Electricity Demand Taking into Account the Impact of Social Processes in Ukraine

2021 ◽  
Vol IX(255) (32) ◽  
pp. 44-48
Author(s):  
D. V. Yatsenko ◽  
V. A. Popov ◽  
A. I. Zamulko ◽  
O. V. Adanikov
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

scholarly journals Demonstrating the Impact of Prior Knowledge in Risky Choice

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathew Hardy ◽  
Tom Griffiths
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prior Knowledge ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Risky Choice ◽  
Human Cognition ◽  
Decision Making Under Risk ◽  
Congressional Districts ◽  
Prior Probabilities ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

Bayesian models that optimally integrate prior probabilities with observations have successfully explained many aspects of human cognition. Research on decision-making under risk, however, is usually done through laboratory tasks that attempt to remove the effect of prior knowledge on choice. We ran a large online experiment in which risky options paid out according to the distribution of Democratic and Republican voters in US congressional districts to test the effects of manipulating prior probabilities on participants’ choices. We find evidence that people’s risk preferences are appropriately influenced by prior probabilities, and discuss how the study of risky choice can be integrated into the Bayesian approach to studying cognition.

scholarly journals How many data clusters are in the Galaxy data set?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bettina Grün ◽  
Gertraud Malsiner-Walli ◽  
Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter
Keyword(s):  
Mixture Model ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Model Based Clustering ◽  
The Galaxy ◽  
Data Clusters ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Full Factorial ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

AbstractIn model-based clustering, the Galaxy data set is often used as a benchmark data set to study the performance of different modeling approaches. Aitkin (Stat Model 1:287–304) compares maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses of the Galaxy data set and expresses reservations about the Bayesian approach due to the fact that the prior assumptions imposed remain rather obscure while playing a major role in the results obtained and conclusions drawn. The aim of the paper is to address Aitkin’s concerns about the Bayesian approach by shedding light on how the specified priors influence the number of estimated clusters. We perform a sensitivity analysis of different prior specifications for the mixtures of finite mixture model, i.e., the mixture model where a prior on the number of components is included. We use an extensive set of different prior specifications in a full factorial design and assess their impact on the estimated number of clusters for the Galaxy data set. Results highlight the interaction effects of the prior specifications and provide insights into which prior specifications are recommended to obtain a sparse clustering solution. A simulation study with artificial data provides further empirical evidence to support the recommendations. A clear understanding of the impact of the prior specifications removes restraints preventing the use of Bayesian methods due to the complexity of selecting suitable priors. Also, the regularizing properties of the priors may be intentionally exploited to obtain a suitable clustering solution meeting prior expectations and needs of the application.

scholarly journals Molecular dating for phylogenies containing a mix of populations and species

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatriz Mello ◽  
Qiqing Tao ◽  
Sudhir Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Phylogenetic Trees ◽  
Molecular Dating ◽  
Rate Variation ◽  
Species Variation ◽  
Sequence Alignments ◽  
Clock Model ◽  
Divergence Time Estimates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

AbstractConcurrent molecular dating of population and species divergences is essential in many biological investigations, including phylogeography, phylodynamics, and species delimitation studies. Multiple sequence alignments used in these investigations frequently consist of both intra- and inter-species samples (mixed samples). As a result, the phylogenetic trees contain inter-species, inter-population, and within population divergences. To date these sequence divergences, Bayesian relaxed clock methods are often employed, but they assume the same tree prior for both inter- and intra-species branching processes and require specification of a clock model for branch rates (independent vs. autocorrelated rates models). We evaluated the impact of using the same tree prior on the Bayesian divergence time estimates by analyzing computer-simulated datasets. We also examined the effect of the assumption of independence of evolutionary rate variation among branches when the branch rates are autocorrelated. Bayesian approach with Skyline-coalescent tree priors generally produced excellent molecular dates, with some tree priors (e.g., Yule) performing the best when evolutionary rates were autocorrelated, and lineage sorting was incomplete. We compared the performance of the Bayesian approach with a non-Bayesian, the RelTime method, which does not require specification of a tree prior or selection of a clock model. We found that RelTime performed as well as the Bayesian approach, and when the clock model was mis-specified, RelTime performed slightly better. These results suggest that the computationally efficient RelTime approach is also suitable to analyze datasets containing both populations and species variation.

scholarly journals The Bayesian Approach and the Results of the ISAR-REACT 5 Trial

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-232
Author(s):  
Adnan Kastrati ◽  
Alexander Hapfelmeier
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

scholarly journals Synchronization in 5G networks: a hybrid Bayesian approach toward clock offset/skew estimation and its impact on localization

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Meysam Goodarzi ◽  
Darko Cvetkovski ◽  
Nebojsa Maletic ◽  
Jesús Gutiérrez ◽  
Eckhard Grass
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Position Estimation ◽  
5G Networks ◽  
Clock Skew ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mean Square Errors ◽  
Clock Offset

AbstractClock synchronization has always been a major challenge when designing wireless networks. This work focuses on tackling the time synchronization problem in 5G networks by adopting a hybrid Bayesian approach for clock offset and skew estimation. Furthermore, we provide an in-depth analysis of the impact of the proposed approach on a synchronization-sensitive service, i.e., localization. Specifically, we expose the substantial benefit of belief propagation (BP) running on factor graphs (FGs) in achieving precise network-wide synchronization. Moreover, we take advantage of Bayesian recursive filtering (BRF) to mitigate the time-stamping error in pairwise synchronization. Finally, we reveal the merit of hybrid synchronization by dividing a large-scale network into local synchronization domains and applying the most suitable synchronization algorithm (BP- or BRF-based) on each domain. The performance of the hybrid approach is then evaluated in terms of the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the clock offset, clock skew, and the position estimation. According to the simulations, in spite of the simplifications in the hybrid approach, RMSEs of clock offset, clock skew, and position estimation remain below 10 ns, 1 ppm, and 1.5 m, respectively.

scholarly journals Direct harms and social consequences: An analysis of the impact of maternal imprisonment on dependent children in England and Wales

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 519-536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shona Minson
Keyword(s):  
Social Processes ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Criminal Courts ◽  
Dependent Children ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Child Relationship ◽  
Research With Children ◽  
The Family ◽  
Mother And Child ◽  
The Impact

This article draws upon research with children whose mothers were imprisoned in England and Wales, to investigate the impacts of maternal imprisonment on dependent children. The research directly engaged with children, in accordance with Article 12 of the UNCRC 1989, and is set within an examination of the differentiated treatment in the family and criminal courts of England and Wales of children facing state initiated separation from a parent. The article explores children’s ‘confounding grief’ and contends that this grief originates from social processes, experienced as a consequence of maternal imprisonment. ‘Secondary prisonization’ is characterized by changes in home and caregiver and the regulation of the mother and child relationship. ‘Secondary stigmatization’ occurs when children are stigmatized by virtue of their relationship with their mother. These harms to children call into question the state’s fulfilment of its duty to protect children under Article 2 of the UNCRC 1989.

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