scholarly journals Fighting a fire versus waiting for a wave: Useful and not-so-useful analogies in times of SARS-CoV-2

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Archer ◽  
Claire Standley ◽  
Péter Molnár
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Biological Processes ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Communication Tools ◽  
Regular Feature ◽  
News Headlines

As SARS-CoV-2 has swept the planet, intermittent “lockdowns” have become a regular feature to control transmission. References to so-called recurring “waves” of infections remain pervasive among news headlines, political messaging, and public health sources. Here, we consider the power of analogies as a tool for facilitating effective understanding of biological processes by reviewing the successes and limitations of various analogies in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also consider how, when analogies fall short, their ability to persuade can mislead public opinion and behaviour, even if unintentionally. While waves can be effective in conveying patterns of disease outbreak retrospectively, we suggest that process-based analogies might be more effective communication tools, given that they are easily mapped to underlying epidemiological concepts and can be extended to include more complex (e.g., spatial) dynamics. Though no single analogy perfectly captures disease dynamics, fire is particularly suitable for visualizing the epidemiological models that are used to understand disease trajectories, underscoring the importance of and reasoning behind control strategies, and, above all, conveying a sense of urgency to galvanise collective action.

Improving Disease Outbreak Forecasting Models for Efficient Targeting of Public Health Resources

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lasantha Fernando ◽  
Sriganesh Lokanathan ◽  
Amal Shehan Perera ◽  
Azhar Ghouse ◽  
Hasitha Tissera
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Resources ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Forecasting Models

scholarly journals Using Unstated Cases to Correct for COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak and Its Impact on Easing the Intervention for Qatar

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 463
Author(s):  
Narjiss Sallahi ◽  
Heesoo Park ◽  
Fedwa El Mellouhi ◽  
Mustapha Rachdi ◽  
Idir Ouassou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Gulf Region ◽  
Epidemiological Modeling ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Case Data

Epidemiological Modeling supports the evaluation of various disease management activities. The value of epidemiological models lies in their ability to study various scenarios and to provide governments with a priori knowledge of the consequence of disease incursions and the impact of preventive strategies. A prevalent method of modeling the spread of pandemics is to categorize individuals in the population as belonging to one of several distinct compartments, which represents their health status with regard to the pandemic. In this work, a modified SIR epidemic model is proposed and analyzed with respect to the identification of its parameters and initial values based on stated or recorded case data from public health sources to estimate the unreported cases and the effectiveness of public health policies such as social distancing in slowing the spread of the epidemic. The analysis aims to highlight the importance of unreported cases for correcting the underestimated basic reproduction number. In many epidemic outbreaks, the number of reported infections is likely much lower than the actual number of infections which can be calculated from the model’s parameters derived from reported case data. The analysis is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic for several countries in the Gulf region and Europe.

scholarly journals Clinical laboratory tests and five-year incidence of major depressive disorder: a prospective cohort study of 433,890 participants from the UK Biobank

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Wainberg ◽  
Stefan Kloiber ◽  
Breno Diniz ◽  
Roger S. McIntyre ◽  
Daniel Felsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Major Depressive Disorder ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Depressive Disorder ◽  
Blood Cell ◽  
Biological Processes ◽  
Uk Biobank ◽  
Major Depressive ◽  
The Uk

AbstractPrevention of major depressive disorder (MDD) is a public health priority. Identifying biomarkers of underlying biological processes that contribute to MDD onset may help address this public health need. This prospective cohort study encompassed 383,131 white British participants from the UK Biobank with no prior history of MDD, with replication in 50,759 participants of other ancestries. Leveraging linked inpatient and primary care records, we computed adjusted odds ratios for 5-year MDD incidence among individuals with values below or above the 95% confidence interval (<2.5th or >97.5th percentile) on each of 57 laboratory measures. Sensitivity analyses were performed across multiple percentile thresholds and in comparison to established reference ranges. We found that indicators of liver dysfunction were associated with increased 5-year MDD incidence (even after correction for alcohol use and body mass index): elevated alanine aminotransferase (AOR = 1.35, 95% confidence interval [1.16, 1.58]), aspartate aminotransferase (AOR = 1.39 [1.19, 1.62]), and gamma glutamyltransferase (AOR = 1.52 [1.31, 1.76]) as well as low albumin (AOR = 1.28 [1.09, 1.50]). Similar observations were made with respect to endocrine dysregulation, specifically low insulin-like growth factor 1 (AOR = 1.34 [1.16, 1.55]), low testosterone among males (AOR = 1.60 [1.27, 2.00]), and elevated glycated hemoglobin (HbA1C; AOR = 1.23 [1.05, 1.43]). Markers of renal impairment (i.e. elevated cystatin C, phosphate, and urea) and indicators of anemia and macrocytosis (i.e. red blood cell enlargement) were also associated with MDD incidence. While some immune markers, like elevated white blood cell and neutrophil count, were associated with MDD (AOR = 1.23 [1.07, 1.42]), others, like elevated C-reactive protein, were not (AOR = 1.04 [0.89, 1.22]). The 30 significant associations validated as a group in the multi-ancestry replication cohort (Wilcoxon p = 0.0005), with a median AOR of 1.235. Importantly, all 30 significant associations with extreme laboratory test results were directionally consistent with an increased MDD risk. In sum, markers of liver and kidney dysfunction, growth hormone and testosterone deficiency, innate immunity, anemia, macrocytosis, and insulin resistance were associated with MDD incidence in a large community-based cohort. Our results support a contributory role of diverse biological processes to MDD onset.

scholarly journals Extinction and persistence of a stochastic SIRV epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramziya Rifhat ◽  
Zhidong Teng ◽  
Chunxia Wang
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Random Perturbations ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Nonlinear Incidence Rate ◽  
Nonlinear Incidence ◽  
Analysis Theory ◽  
Lyapunov Function Method ◽  
Random Fluctuations ◽  
Theoretical Results

AbstractIn this paper, a stochastic SIRV epidemic model with general nonlinear incidence and vaccination is investigated. The value of our study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, with the help of Lyapunov function method and stochastic analysis theory, we obtain a stochastic threshold of the model that completely determines the extinction and persistence of the epidemic. Epidemiologically, we find that random fluctuations can suppress disease outbreak, which can provide us some useful control strategies to regulate disease dynamics. In other words, neglecting random perturbations overestimates the ability of the disease to spread. The numerical simulations are given to illustrate the main theoretical results.

scholarly journals Design of vaccine efficacy trials during public health emergencies

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (499) ◽  
pp. eaat0360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie E. Dean ◽  
Pierre-Stéphane Gsell ◽  
Ron Brookmeyer ◽  
Victor De Gruttola ◽  
Christl A. Donnelly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Vaccine Efficacy ◽  
Vaccine Trial ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Efficacy Trials ◽  
Challenging Environment

Public health emergencies, such as an Ebola disease outbreak, provide a complex and challenging environment for the evaluation of candidate vaccines. Here, we outline the need for flexible and responsive vaccine trial designs to be used in public health emergencies, and we summarize recommendations for their use in this setting.

Application of GIS technology in public health: successes and challenges

Parasitology ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 143 (4) ◽  
pp. 401-415 ◽  
Author(s):  
STEPHANIE M. FLETCHER-LARTEY ◽  
GRAZIELLA CAPRARELLI
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Parasitic Diseases ◽  
Gis Technology ◽  
The Public ◽  
Application Of Gis

SUMMARYThe uptake and acceptance of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology has increased since the early 1990s and public health applications are rapidly expanding. In this paper, we summarize the common uses of GIS technology in the public health sector, emphasizing applications related to mapping and understanding of parasitic diseases. We also present some of the success stories, and discuss the challenges that still prevent a full scope application of GIS technology in the public health context. Geographical analysis has allowed researchers to interlink health, population and environmental data, thus enabling them to evaluate and quantify relationships between health-related variables and environmental risk factors at different geographical scales. The ability to access, share and utilize satellite and remote-sensing data has made possible even wider understanding of disease processes and of their links to the environment, an important consideration in the study of parasitic diseases. For example, disease prevention and control strategies resulting from investigations conducted in a GIS environment have been applied in many areas, particularly in Africa. However, there remain several challenges to a more widespread use of GIS technology, such as: limited access to GIS infrastructure, inadequate technical and analytical skills, and uneven data availability. Opportunities exist for international collaboration to address these limitations through knowledge sharing and governance.

scholarly journals How alkaline compounds control atmospheric aerosol particle acidity

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (19) ◽  
pp. 14983-15001
Author(s):  
Vlassis A. Karydis ◽  
Alexandra P. Tsimpidi ◽  
Andrea Pozzer ◽  
Jos Lelieveld
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Aerosol Particle ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Atmospheric Particulate Matter ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Mass Composition ◽  
The Past ◽  
Aerosol Hygroscopicity

Abstract. The acidity of atmospheric particulate matter regulates its mass, composition, and toxicity and has important consequences for public health, ecosystems and climate. Despite these broad impacts, the global distribution and evolution of aerosol particle acidity are unknown. We used the comprehensive atmospheric multiphase chemistry–climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) to investigate the main factors that control aerosol particle acidity and uncovered remarkable variability and unexpected trends during the past 50 years in different parts of the world. Aerosol particle acidity decreased strongly over Europe and North America during the past decades while at the same time it increased over Asia. Our simulations revealed that these particle acidity trends are strongly related to changes in the phase partitioning of nitric acid, production of sulfate in aqueous aerosols, and the aerosol hygroscopicity. It is remarkable that the aerosol hygroscopicity (κ) has increased in many regions following the particle pH. Overall, we find that alkaline compounds, notably ammonium and to a lesser extent crustal cations, regulate the particle pH on a global scale. Given the importance of aerosol particles for the atmospheric energy budget, cloud formation, pollutant deposition, and public health, alkaline species hold the key to control strategies for air quality and climate change.

scholarly journals How alkaline compounds control atmospheric aerosol acidity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vlassis A. Karydis ◽  
Alexandra P. Tsimpidi ◽  
Andrea Pozzer ◽  
Jos Lelieveld
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Mass Composition ◽  
Aerosol Acidity ◽  
Pollutant Deposition ◽  
Particulate Mass

Abstract. The acidity of atmospheric aerosols regulates the particulate mass, composition and toxicity, and has important consequences for public health, ecosystems and climate. Despite these broad impacts, the global distribution and evolution of aerosol acidity are unknown. We used the particular, comprehensive atmospheric multiphase chemistry – climate model EMAC to investigate the main factors that control aerosol acidity, and uncovered remarkable variability and unexpected trends during the past 50 years in different parts of the world. We find that alkaline compounds, notably ammonium, and to a lesser extent crustal cations, buffer the aerosol pH on a global scale. Given the importance of aerosols for the atmospheric energy budget, cloud formation, pollutant deposition and public health, alkaline species hold the key to control strategies for air quality and climate change.

Communication lapses to combating COVID-19 pandemic: Evaluating Ghana’s COVID-19 campaign

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Nyarko ◽  
Michael Yao Wodui Serwornoo ◽  
Benedine Azanu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Information ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Document Analysis ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Communication Tools ◽  
Public Health Information ◽  
Political Iconography ◽  
The Masses ◽  
Timely Delivery

COVID-19 is described as ‘novel’ largely because the virus has rarely been studied. Without any vaccine, the key to containing the virus was the timely delivery of educative public health information to people. With a population of 29 million composed of small urban segments, Ghana has enormous rural enclaves where most of her citizens live. This study seeks to explore the nature of Ghana’s COVID-19 campaign, focusing on the communication strategies and the extent to which indigenous communication tools (ICTs) have been employed. Relying on document analysis, Ghana’s COVID-19 campaign rarely deployed ICTs but rather paid lip service to the country’s indigenous resources in public addresses to the nation. It also found that the fight against the virus metamorphosed into political campaigns making WHO’s vital information subservient to images of political figures and political iconography in general. We argue that the nature of the campaign created generalized awareness of the pandemic, but did less to educate the masses on the WHO preventive protocols.

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