scholarly journals Improving Urban Seismic Risk Estimates for Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Incorporating Recent Geological Knowledge of Hazards

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruth Amey ◽  
John Elliott ◽  
C. Scott Watson ◽  
Richard Walker ◽  
Marco Pagani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Active Faulting ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
Digital Elevation ◽  
Earthquake Model ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
The City

Many cities are built on or near active faults, which pose seismic hazard and risk to the urban population. This risk is exacerbated by city expansion, which may obscure signs of active faulting. Here we estimate the risk to Bishkek city, Kyrgyzstan, due to realistic earthquake scenarios based on historic earthquakes in the region and improved knowledge of the active faulting. We use previous literature and fault mapping, combined with new high-resolution digital elevation models to identify and characterise faults that pose a risk to Bishkek. We then estimate the hazard (ground shaking), damage to residential buildings and losses (economical cost and fatalities) using the Global Earthquake Model OpenQuake engine. We model historical events and hypothetical events on a variety of faults that could plausibly host significant earthquakes. This includes proximal, recognised, faults as well as a fault under folding in the north of the city that we identify using satellite DEMs. We find that potential earthquakes on faults nearest to Bishkek - Issyk Ata, Shamsi Tunduk, Chonkurchak and the northern fault - would cause the most damage to the city. An Mw 7.5 earthquake on the Issyk Ata fault could potentially cause 7,900 ± 2600 completely damaged buildings, a further 16,400 ± 2000 damaged buildings and 2400 ± 1500 fatalities. It is vital to properly identify, characterise and model active faults near cities as modelling the northern fault as a Mw 6.5 instead of Mw 6.0 would result in 37% more completely damaged buildings and 48% more fatalities.

scholarly journals Historical Earthquake Scenarios for the Middle Strand of the North Anatolian Fault Deduced from Archeo-Damage Inventory and Building Deformation Modeling

2020 ◽  
Vol 92 (1) ◽  
pp. 583-598
Author(s):  
Yacine Benjelloun ◽  
Julia de Sigoyer ◽  
Hélène Dessales ◽  
Laurent Baillet ◽  
Philippe Guéguen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
North Anatolian Fault ◽  
First Century ◽  
Building Vulnerability ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
Seismicity Catalog ◽  
Quality Ranking ◽  
The City

Abstract The city of İznik (ancient Nicaea), located on the middle strand of the North Anatolian fault zone (MNAF), presents outstanding archeological monuments preserved from the Roman and Ottoman periods (first to fifteenth centuries A.D.), bearing deformations that can be linked to past seismic shaking. To constrain the date and intensity of these historical earthquakes, a systematic survey of earthquake archeological effects (EAEs) is carried out on the city’s damaged buildings. Each of the 235 EAEs found is given a quality ranking, and the corresponding damage is classified according to the European Macroseismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98). We show that the walls oriented north–south were preferentially damaged, and that most deformations are perpendicular to the walls’ axes. The date of postseismic repairs is constrained with available archeological data and new C14 dating of mortar charcoals. Three damage episodes are evidenced: (1) between the sixth and late eighth centuries, (2) between the nineth and late eleventh centuries A.D., and (3) after the late fourteenth century A.D. The repartition of damage as a function of building vulnerability points toward a global intensity VIII on the EMS-98. The 3D modeling of a deformed Roman obelisk shows that only earthquakes rupturing the MNAF can account for this deformation. Their magnitude can be bracketed between Mw 6 and 7. Our archeoseismological study complements the historical seismicity catalog and confirms paleoseismological data, suggesting several destructive earthquakes along the MNAF, since the first century A.D. We suggest the fault might still have accumulated enough stress to generate an Mw 7+ rupture.

scholarly journals Topographic Anaglyphs from Detailed Digital Elevation Models Covering Inland and Seafloor for the Tectonic Geomorphology Studies in and around Yoron Island, Ryukyu Arc, Japan

Geosciences ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hideaki Goto ◽  
Kohsaku Arai ◽  
Taichi Sato
Keyword(s):  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Stress Axis ◽  
Tectonic Geomorphology ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Digital Elevation ◽  
Ryukyu Arc ◽  
Island Shelf

Anaglyphs produced using a digital elevation model (DEM) are effective to identify the characteristic tectono–geomorphic features. The objective of this study is to reinvestigate the tectonic geomorphology and to present novel tectonic maps of the late Quaternary in and around the Yoron island based on the interpretation of extensive topographical anaglyphs along the map areas that cover the inland and seafloor. Vintage aerial photographs are used to produce the 3-m mesh inland digital surface model (DSM); further, the 0.6-s to 2-s-mesh seafloor DEM is processed using the cloud point data generated through previous surveys. Thus, we identify anticlinal deformation on both the Pleistocene marine terrace and the seafloor to the north of the island. The deformation axis extends in a line and is parallel to the general trend of the island shelf. The Tsujimiya fault cuts the marine terraces, which extend to the Yoron basin’s seafloor. If we assume that the horizontal compressive stress axis is perpendicular to the island shelf, these properties can easily explain the distribution and style of the active faults and deformation. This study presents an effective methodology to understand the island arc tectonics, especially in case of small isolated islands.

scholarly journals Potential Seismic Damage Assessment of Residential Buildings in Imzouren City (Northern Morocco)

Buildings ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seif-eddine Cherif ◽  
Mimoun Chourak ◽  
Mohamed Abed ◽  
Abdelhalim Douiri
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Site Investigation ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Vulnerability Index Method ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
The City

The main purpose of this study is to assess seismic risk and present earthquake loss scenarios for the city of Imzouren, in northern Morocco. An empirical approach was chosen to assess the seismic vulnerability of the existing buildings, using the Vulnerability Index Method (RISK-UE), and considering two earthquake scenarios (deterministic and probabilistic). Special concern was given to the seismic vulnerability in Imzouren since the 2004 earthquake (24 February, mw = 6.4) that struck the region and caused substantial damage. A site investigation was conducted in the city targeting more than 3000 residential buildings, which had been closely examined and catalogued to assess their seismic vulnerability. The results of the seismic risk assessment in the city are represented through damage to the buildings, harm to the population and economic loss. Generally, the results obtained from the deterministic approach are in agreement with the damage caused by the 2004 earthquake.

scholarly journals Modern displacement of active faults in South-Yakutian coal-bearing depression on the GPS data

2019 ◽  
pp. 63-71
Author(s):  
V. S. Imaev ◽  
L. P. Imaeva ◽  
S. V. Аshurkov ◽  
N. N. Grib ◽  
I. I. Kolodeznikov
Keyword(s):  
Kinematic Model ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Surface Displacement ◽  
Relative Displacement ◽  
Eurasian Plate ◽  
The North ◽  
Southern Yakutia ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The City ◽  
Gps Observations

For a quantitative assessment of the current horizontal velocity of the surface displacement of the crust in southern Yakutia in recent years, was organized the first and only points of permanent GPS observations in the city of Neryungri (NRG) and the city of Chulman (CHL3). Both points of observation are located within the southern margin of the Eurasian plate, near the system of active structures separating it from the Amur plate. To estimate the relative displacement, the period of joint operation of these two GPS points was chosen, namely from June 29, 2015 to December 1, 2016. The rate of displacement of the point in Neryungri, calculated for a 5-year period (from 27.10.2011 to 01.10.2016), was 21.83±0.73 mm/year in the East-West direction and 12.26±0.25 mm/year in the North-South direction in the international reference basis ITRF2014. The obtained values differ slightly from the theoretical values of the velocity of the Eurasian lithospheric plate at the specified point. The difference of the measured velocities with velocities according to the known kinematic model of the Eurasian plate obtained in this paper is |0.5| mm/year for the Eastern component and |1.0| mm/year for the Northern one and corresponds to the assessment of other authors [Kreemer et al., 2014]. To improve the accuracy of determining the speed of horizontal displacements of the earth's crust at the station CHL3, it is necessary to continue measurements synchronous with the station NRG2.

scholarly journals STALINGRAD TRACTOR PLANT AS A SPACE FOR INDUSTRIALIZATION AND CONSTRUCTIVISM

2019 ◽  
pp. 85-100
Author(s):  
A. G. Tokarev
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Planning ◽  
City Planning ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
The North ◽  
The World ◽  
Industrial Architecture ◽  
The City ◽  
Tractor Plant ◽  
Construction Works

The paper is devoted to Stalingrad Tractor Plant, one of the main plants of the Soviet industrialization. The spatial planning pattern of the plant, its settlements, industrial architecture, public and residential buildings are considered herein. Notably, that one of the largest tractor plants in the world was put into operation within the shortest time. Its construction gave a start to the urban development in the north which embodied the advanced ideas in the city planning and architecture of that time. Leading foreign and Russian experts were involved in design and construction works. It is shown that design solutions of residential areas (Upper and Lower) combine both the traditional and innovative principles of the city-planning in the 1920–30s, including the tractor plant and its settlements. It is concluded that whereas residential buildings the early 1930s are characterized by rationality, simplicity, public buildings are expressive and diverse, and represent consistent design principles. The attribution of other objects is also clarified in this paper.

scholarly journals HISTORICAL TOPOGRAPHY OF LUBECH IN 10th—11th CENTURIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-120
Author(s):  
O. M. Veremeychyk
Keyword(s):  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Archaeological Sites ◽  
Left Bank ◽  
Archaeological Material ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
Burial Rites ◽  
Burial Mounds ◽  
The City

The antiquities of Lubech of the 10th — the beginning 11th century are represented by cultural layer, fixed on large territory, burial assemblages and structures (residential, household, defensive) of this time, as well as finds of hoards and single coins. The complex of archaeological sites of Lubech 10th century consists of settlements, suburbs (posads) and burial mounds. Settlements are located along the edge of the indigenous terrace of the left bank of the Dnieper River (Lysa Gora, Zamkova Gora, Gorodische—1, settlement Monastyrische). Posads adjoining them from the east and south. Podil (down town) is located under the settlements, in the floodplain of the Dnieper river. From the north, east and south, the territory of the city was surrounded by burial mounds. In 1947 O. O. Popko recorded 6 mound groups which were located in the central part of the settlement (Dubret site), on Lysa Gora (Mokriivshchina site), northwest of the settlement, near the Dnieper floodplain (Chabotok site), in the northern part of Lubech, on Visokomy Poli (Kolovoroty site), east of Lubech (Duhivschina site) and in the southern part of the settlement, near the Podolnitsky Gora (settlement Monastyrische), in Kurgan site. In 2017—19, the remains of mounds near house of P. Polubotok were also archaeologically recorded. During the end of 19th — beginning 21st centuries in different mound groups of Lubech 39 burials 10th — early 11th centuries have been excavated. The diversity of burial rites in the mound groups of Lubech testifies of the variegated nature of the Lubech population at the initial stage of its existence. Residential and household buildings of this time are recorded at Zamkova Gora, Horodysche 1 and Lubechposad. Some of them contained the hand-made and wheel-made pottery of Romenska culture. At the settlement Zamkova Gora the residential buildings of the 10th century which consisted of one row of structure were found. Three dwellings with clay ovens located in the southern corners of the structures were discovered. Ovens were built either using clay rollers or stone. In all constructions the hand-made pottery of Romenska culture was dominated but some fragments of early whel-made pottery were also occurred. Two more residential buildings with Romenska culture hand-made ceramics were found at the posad of Lubech. The residential and utility buildings of the 10th century with the wheel-made pottery were also discovered. Some sites with the hand-made pottery of Romenska culture were partially excavated at the Horodysche 1. Hoards and individual finds of Arab coins and single finds of Byzantine coins of 10th — beginning of 11th century come from Lubech. Analyzing the archaeological material it can be concluded that Lubech probably originated at the turn of the 9th—10th centuries, and in the mid-10th century it was already the significant center of Eastern Europe.

scholarly journals Repeated historical earthquakes in Sousse, Monastir and El-Jem (Tunisia)—an archaeoseismological study

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Miklós Kázmér
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Segment Length ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Historical Buildings ◽  
The North ◽  
Sahel Region ◽  
The City ◽  
East West

AbstractTunisia is known of sparse and moderate earthquakes. However, there are seismically damaged historical buildings in the eastern Sahel region. The Roman amphitheatre of Thysdrus (modern El-Jem), various Islamic religious and secular buildings in Sousse and Monastir testify to seismic events with intensity up to IX (EMS98 scale). We raise the hypothesis that their destruction was caused by the nearby east-west Cherichira-Abaieh Fault and the north-south Monastir Fault. Simultaneity of the 859 AD Kairouan earthquake and extensive restoration works in Sousse 50 km to the east allow assessing magnitude up to 7.2 based on segment length. The city was hit both by the 859 AD and a post-1575 earthquake. Being nearby two active faults, seismic hazard in Sousse is higher than either in Kairouan or in Monastir.

scholarly journals Modern displacement of active faults in South-Yakutian coal-bearing depression on the GPS data

2019 ◽  
pp. 63-71
Author(s):  
V. S. Imaev ◽  
L. P. Imaeva ◽  
S. V. Аshurkov ◽  
N. N. Grib ◽  
I. I. Kolodeznikov
Keyword(s):  
Kinematic Model ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Surface Displacement ◽  
Relative Displacement ◽  
Eurasian Plate ◽  
The North ◽  
Southern Yakutia ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The City ◽  
Gps Observations

For a quantitative assessment of the current horizontal velocity of the surface displacement of the crust in southern Yakutia in recent years, was organized the first and only points of permanent GPS observations in the city of Neryungri (NRG) and the city of Chulman (CHL3). Both points of observation are located within the southern margin of the Eurasian plate, near the system of active structures separating it from the Amur plate. To estimate the relative displacement, the period of joint operation of these two GPS points was chosen, namely from June 29, 2015 to December 1, 2016. The rate of displacement of the point in Neryungri, calculated for a 5-year period (from 27.10.2011 to 01.10.2016), was 21.83±0.73 mm/year in the East-West direction and 12.26±0.25 mm/year in the North-South direction in the international reference basis ITRF2014. The obtained values differ slightly from the theoretical values of the velocity of the Eurasian lithospheric plate at the specified point. The difference of the measured velocities with velocities according to the known kinematic model of the Eurasian plate obtained in this paper is |0.5| mm/year for the Eastern component and |1.0| mm/year for the Northern one and corresponds to the assessment of other authors [Kreemer et al., 2014]. To improve the accuracy of determining the speed of horizontal displacements of the earth's crust at the station CHL3, it is necessary to continue measurements synchronous with the station NRG2.

scholarly journals Archaeoseismological study of the Cherichira aqueduct bridge, Kairouan, Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus-G. Hinzen ◽  
Mustapha Meghraoui ◽  
Nejib Bahrouni ◽  
Yassine Houla ◽  
Sharon K. Reamer
Keyword(s):  
Plate Boundary ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Archaeological Sites ◽  
North African ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Mountain Ranges ◽  
The North ◽  
The Status ◽  
The City ◽  
Aqueduct Bridge

AbstractIn the past, several destructive earthquakes have occurred in the North African Atlas Mountain ranges located along the Africa–Eurasia plate boundary. Although the region is rich with impressive archaeological sites, including those in modern Tunisia, few comprehensive archaeoseismological studies have been conducted. Historic sources account at least three damaging earthquakes in the Kairouan area in central Tunisia between AD 859 and 1041. Little is known about which faults triggered these earthquakes or the size of these events. The water supply of the city of Kairouan depended on a 32-km-long aqueduct with a large bridge (now partially collapsed) at the confluence of the de Mouta and Cherichira rivers. The original bridge of Roman construction was retrofitted twice during the Aghlabid period (AD 800–903) and probably in AD 995 during the Fatimid period. The ruined section of the bridge shows damage which might be related to the AD 859 earthquake shaking. Here, we present a detailed study of the history, the status and the damage of the Cherichira aqueduct bridge using previous historic accounts and written works, a 3D laser scan model, local geological and seismological characteristics, and include results of radiocarbon dating and a timeline of events. In addition to earthquake ground motions, we consider severe flash floods on the bridge as a potential cause of the damage. We estimate the severity of such flash floods and develop a model with 18 earthquake scenarios on local reverse and strike-slip faults with magnitudes between MW 6.1 and 7.2. While a few damage patterns might be indicative of flooding, most damage can be attributed to earthquakes. It is highly probable that the earthquake in AD 859 caused enough damage to the Aghlabid bridge to render it dysfunctional; however, to resolve the question of whether another earthquake in AD 911 or 1041 caused the complete destruction of the previously retrofitted aqueduct by the Fatimids requires dating of additional sections of the bridge.

scholarly journals Modelling ground motion in the Hutt Valley, New Zealand

2007 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 190-199
Author(s):  
Shu Qin Ma ◽  
Martha Savage ◽  
Jiashun Yu
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Synthetic Seismograms ◽  
Spectral Ratios ◽  
Amplification Factors ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Seismic Arrays ◽  
Ground Motion Amplification ◽  
The North ◽  
The City

The Hutt Valley is an alluvial basin that hosts the city of Lower Hutt, in the North Island, New Zealand. The basin is bounded by the Wellington Fault on its northwest side, and exhibits ground motion amplification factors up to about 15, measured by several seismic experiments using weak motion and portable seismic arrays during 1990-1991. Synthetic seismograms computed by using local 1D stratigraphic models under each station reproduce qualitatively the amplitudes and durations of the corresponding observed seismograms at most of the soft site stations of the arrays. Amplification factors estimated from spectral ratios of the synthetic seismograms are up to about 9. The authors present comparisons of amplification between synthetics and observations, allowing a “calibration” of the model so that it could be used to determine more realistic ground amplifications for earthquake scenarios.

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