scholarly journals The role of Bayes factors in testing interactions

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bence Palfi ◽  
Zoltan Dienes
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Manipulation ◽  
Bayes Factors ◽  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Frequentist Statistics ◽  
Shiny App ◽  
Bayesian Evidence ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Condition B

Psychologists are often interested whether an experimental manipulation has a different effect in condition A than in condition B. To test such a question, one needs to directly compare the conditions (i.e. test the interaction). Yet, many tend to stop when they find a significant test in one condition and a non-significant test in the other condition, and deem it as sufficient evidence for the difference between the two conditions. This tutorial aims to raise awareness of this inferential mistake when Bayes factors are used with conventional cut-offs to draw conclusions. For instance, some might falsely conclude that there must be good enough evidence for the interaction if they find good enough Bayesian evidence for H1 in condition A and good enough Bayesian evidence for H0 in condition B. The introduced case study highlights that ignoring the test of the interaction can lead to unjustified conclusions and demonstrates that the principle that any assertion about the existence of an interaction necessitates the comparison of the conditions is as true for Bayesian as it is for frequentist statistics. We provide an R script of the analyses of the case study and a Shiny App that can be used with a 2x2 design to develop intuitions on the current issue, and we introduce a rule of thumb with which one can estimate the sample size one might need to have a well-powered design.

scholarly journals Why Bayesian “Evidence for H1” in One Condition and Bayesian “Evidence for H0” in Another Condition Does Not Mean Good-Enough Bayesian Evidence for a Difference Between the Conditions

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 300-308
Author(s):  
Bence Palfi ◽  
Zoltan Dienes
Keyword(s):  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Alternative Hypothesis ◽  
Bayes Factors ◽  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Frequentist Statistics ◽  
Shiny App ◽  
Bayesian Evidence ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Condition B

Psychologists are often interested in whether an independent variable has a different effect in condition A than in condition B. To test such a question, one needs to directly compare the effect of that variable in the two conditions (i.e., test the interaction). Yet many researchers tend to stop when they find a significant test in one condition and a nonsignificant test in the other condition, deeming this as sufficient evidence for a difference between the two conditions. In this Tutorial, we aim to raise awareness of this inferential mistake when Bayes factors are used with conventional cutoffs to draw conclusions. For instance, some researchers might falsely conclude that there must be good-enough evidence for the interaction if they find good-enough Bayesian evidence for the alternative hypothesis, H1, in condition A and good-enough Bayesian evidence for the null hypothesis, H0, in condition B. The case study we introduce highlights that ignoring the test of the interaction can lead to unjustified conclusions and demonstrates that the principle that any assertion about the existence of an interaction necessitates the direct comparison of the conditions is as true for Bayesian as it is for frequentist statistics. We provide an R script of the analyses of the case study and a Shiny app that can be used with a 2 × 2 design to develop intuitions on this issue, and we introduce a rule of thumb with which one can estimate the sample size one might need to have a well-powered design.

scholarly journals Inductive/Deductive Learning by Considering the Role of Gender—A Case Study of Iranian French-Learners

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rouhollah Rahmatian ◽  
Fatemeh Zarekar
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Language ◽  
Learning Styles ◽  
Language Learning ◽  
Inductive Approach ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Gender Based

<p class="apa">This article defines the objective of discovering the first preferred styles of Iranian learners of French as a Foreign Language (FFL) as regards inductive or deductive learning; and secondly, the difference between gender-based learning tendencies. Considering these points as target variables, the questionnaire developed by Felder and Silverman in 1988 was applied to form the learning styles and consequently to associate them with inductive and deductive approaches. The results led the team to set the idea which is based on the choice of induction or deduction in language learning and the gender variable that follows different directions. Consequently, in terms of the inductive approach, we find ourselves facing a rather male solicitation. A proportion of the use of this approach is also associated with women whose motivation is seen rather noticeably. Moreover, the significance is relative rather than significant in all the relationships studied in this research: males and inductive (1)/deductive learning (2); females and inductive (3)/deductive learning (4); inductive (5)/deductive (6) among Iranians.</p>

scholarly journals The role of gender in the acquisition of the Serbian case system

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 896
Author(s):  
Stefan Pophristic ◽  
Kathryn Schuler
Keyword(s):  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Single Gender ◽  
Tolerance Principle ◽  
Case System ◽  
Noun Classes ◽  
Noun Class ◽  
Abstract Categories ◽  
Categorization System

Serbo-Croatian is marked for seven cases and has a noun class vs. gender distinction. Given the complexity of the inflectional system, we look at Serbo-Croatian as a case study in case acquisition. We explore different correlations  available in the input that children could leverage to acquire the case system in Serbo-Croatian. We ask three main questions: 1) does a noun’s gender predict the noun’s nominative singular suffix? 2) does a noun’s nominative singular suffix predict the noun’s gender? and 3) does a noun’s noun class predict the noun’s gender? Specifically, we ask whether the language input provides children with sufficient evidence to form these three productive generalizations. To test this, we apply the Tolerance Principle (Yang, 2016) to a corpus of 270 inflected Serbian nouns. Within this set of data, we find that: 1) all nominative singular suffixes productively predict a gender; 2) all genders productively predict a nominative singular suffix (with the exception of the neuter gender which predicts two suffixes); and 3) two of the three noun classes predict a single gender. We conclude that the input provides sufficient evidence for these productive correlations and we argue that children can leverage these generalizations to infer the declension patterns or gender of novel nouns. We discuss how, given these findings, children could acquire most of the inflectional system by focusing on gender as a categorization system for nouns, without needing to posit abstract categories of noun class.

scholarly journals Trends of SARS-Cov-2 infection in 67 countries: Role of climate zone, temperature, humidity and curve behavior of cumulative frequency on duplication time

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime Berumen ◽  
Max Schmulson ◽  
Guadalupe Guerrero ◽  
Elizabeth Barrera ◽  
Jorge Larriva-Sahd ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Curve ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
Cumulative Frequency ◽  
Climate Zone ◽  
First Case ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Lineal Regression

Summary Objective. To analyze the role of temperature, humidity, date of first case diagnosed (DFC) and the behavior of the growth-curve of cumulative frequency (CF) [number of days to rise (DCS) and reach the first 100 cases (D100), and the difference between them (ΔDD)] with the doubling time (Td) of Covid-19 cases in 67 countries grouped by climate zone. Design. Retrospective incident case study. Setting. WHO based register of cumulative incidence of Covid-19 cases. Participants. 1,706,914 subjects diagnosed between 12-29-2019 and 4-15-2020. Exposures. SARS-Cov-2 virus, ambient humidity, temperature and climate areas (temperate, tropical/subtropical). Main outcome measures. Comparison of DCS, D100, ΔDD, DFC, humidity, temperature, Td for the first (Td10) and second (Td20) ten days of the CF growth-curve between countries according to climate zone, and identification of factors involved in Td, as well as predictors of CF using lineal regression models. Results. Td10 and Td20 were ≥3 days longer in tropical/subtropical vs. temperate areas (2.8[plusmn]1.2 vs. 5.7[plusmn]3.4; p=1.41E-05 and 4.6[plusmn]1.8 vs. 8.6[plusmn]4.2; p=9.7E-05, respectively). The factors involved in Td10 (DFC and ΔDD) were different than those in Td20 (Td10 and climate areas). After D100, the fastest growth-curves during the first 10 days, were associated with Td10<2 and Td10<3 in temperate and tropical/subtropical countries, respectively. The fold change Td20/Td10 >2 was associated with earlier flattening of the growth-curve. In multivariate models, Td10, DFC and ambient temperature were negatively related with CF and explained 44.7% (r2 = 0.447) of CF variability at day 20 of the growth-curve, while Td20 and DFC were negatively related with CF and explained 63.8% (r2 = 0.638) of CF variability towards day 30 of the growth-curve. Conclusions. The larger Td in tropical/subtropical countries is positively related to DFC and temperature. Td and environmental factors explain 64% of CF variability in the best of cases. Therefore, other factors, such as pandemic containment measures, would explain the remaining variability.

scholarly journals Examine The Role of Online Travel Agents to Increase Room Occupancy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hary Hermawan ◽  
Rudi Wijayanto ◽  
Prihatno ◽  
Nikasius Jonet Sinangjoyo
Keyword(s):  
Case Study Research ◽  
Travel Agents ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Start Up ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Many ◽  
Online Reservation ◽  
Online Travel

Online Travel Agent (OTA) is an online-based start-up company that serves ticket purchases, hotel room reservations, and tourist attraction ticket purchases. One of the many OTA companies that collaborate with accommodation providers is Traveloka. Balkondes Sakapitu has used OTA, in this case, Traveloka as a partner in selling its products in the form of rooms. This study aims to analyze the role of OTA in increasing room occupancy in Balkondes Sakapitu. This research is qualitative research with a case study research design. This study indicates that OTA plays an essential role in increasing room occupancy at Balkondes Sakapitu. The increase in room occupancy is measured by the number of online reservation levels through Traveloka within three months from October to December 2020. The role of increasing room occupancy, the use of OTA in this case Traveloka includes: showing the position or position of the hotel based on reviews from guests and a forum for promotion and sales. There are advantages and disadvantages of using Traveloka for Balkondes Sakapitu. These advantages include marketing personnel's efficiency, saving operational costs, easy to change prices, and statistical data reports. While the drawbacks: the difference in sales prices, long payment tempo, and needed qualified HR. The strength of this research, when compared with previous research, is that this study reveals the pattern of cooperation between the hotel and OTA, and discusses the distribution of commission amounts that in previous studies not discussed.

scholarly journals Travel back to school: use of humour in intertwining of objective authenticity and staged experiences

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 101
Author(s):  
Maja Turnsek ◽  
Tatjana Zupančič ◽  
Barbara Pavlakovič
Keyword(s):  
Video Recording ◽  
Experience Design ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
The Difference ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Heritage Interpretation ◽  
Prime Elements

From living museums to heritage escape rooms, edutainment is becoming a norm in interpretation of heritage, yet not much is known, of the specific role humour plays in the creation and performance of such educational products. This paper explores concepts of authenticity, functions of humour and experience design dimensions on an in-depth case study of a tourism product. The product “Smart Head Primary School” is a re-enactment of teaching as it occurred in the 1950’s in Slovenia. It gained a high extent of popularity primarily due to its extensive inclusion of humour. The product uses the role of a strict teacher to interpret to the “pupils” (visitors) the prime elements of the regions’ heritage. To analyse the intertwining of humour with heritage interpretation, the authors combine two research methods: (a) the in-depth analysis of a transcribed video-recording of a sample performance including the self-analysis and the reflections by one of the “teachers” and (b) a survey distributed to the visitors of the product. The results show that with the use of humour, visitors are able to perceive and recognize the difference between objective and constructive authenticity more effectively.

Assessing future drought conditions under a changing climate: a case study of the Lake Urmia basin in Iran

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1851-1861 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edris Ahmadebrahimpour ◽  
Babak Aminnejad ◽  
Keivan Khalili
Keyword(s):  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Lake Urmia ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract This study was conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on drought over the Lake Urmia basin, Iran. Drought events for 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 were analyzed based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and were compared with the adopted baseline period (1976–2005). The SPI and SPEI were calculated using the precipitation and temperatures obtained from the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 as optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively. The results of SPI analyses revealed that under RCP 2.6 the frequency of droughts is almost constant while under RCP 8.5 drought frequency increased especially in the period 2071–2100. The calculated SEPI under both scenarios and during all future periods predict that the frequency and duration of droughts will increase. Generally, the difference between the SPI and SPEI is related to the input to each index. SPI is solely based on precipitation while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET). Under global warming and changing climate, the significant role of PET was highlighted. It was concluded that the SPEI outperformed the SPI for drought studies under a changing climate.

Conclusion and Policy Implications

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shlomi Dinar ◽  
Ariel Dinar
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Environmental Cooperation ◽  
Power Asymmetry ◽  
Financial Transfers ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
International Environmental Cooperation

This chapter highlights several important empirical conclusions that emerge from the chapters of the book. First, the statistical analysis investigating the linkages among water availability (measured as water quantity per capita) and variability of water supply and treaty-cooperation as well as the analysis investigating the type of institutions that contribute to treaty effectiveness in basins facing increased scarcity and variability support an inverted U-shape cooperation-scarcity/variability relationship. The chapter also discusses the role of several control variables that allow us to add nuance to the results and overall lessons for cooperation. Several conclusions emerge: we find little support for the claim that power asymmetry facilitates international cooperation. On the contrary, power asymmetry does not have a positive impact on treaty cooperation. We also find that incentives (which have been incorporated into existing treaties) such as financial transfers (often at the disposal of richer states) provide a better means for fostering international environmental cooperation between asymmetric parties. Both the quantitative empirical analysis and case-study investigation provide sufficient evidence to suggest that existing and future levels of scarcity and variability can be accommodated not only by institutions in and of themselves but likewise the mechanisms negotiated as part of these institutions.

scholarly journals The Role of Quasi-Logical Arguments in Critical Dialogue: A Pragma-Dialectical Redefinition

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Iva Svačinová
Keyword(s):  
Point Of View ◽  
Strategic Maneuvering ◽  
Critical Dialogue ◽  
Logical Scheme ◽  
Difference Of Opinion ◽  
Argument Scheme ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Dialectical Analysis

The article focuses on the New Rhetoric’s concept of quasi-logical arguments imitating logical or mathematical demonstrations, and examines it from point of view of pragma-dialectics as a device contributing towards resolving the difference of opinion. It is shown that the category of quasi-logical arguments cannot be considered as an argument scheme or a united type of strategic maneuvering. It is suggested to consider the category of quasi-logical arguments as a cluster of specific strategic maneuvers increasing the efficiency of arguments under certain circumstances. This approach is demonstrated in a case study of pragma-dialectical analysis of the quasi-logical scheme of probability.

Peran Pemerintah Provinsi dalam Membangun Kerjasama antar Daerah

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 67-84
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Regional Collaboration ◽  
The Future ◽  
Strategic Position ◽  
The Difference

The role of Provincial Government in regional collaboration is strategic and appealing to be studied. The issue is relatively new and has not received attention from various stakeholders. In addition, the position and authority of the Provincial Government to a certain extent is strategic for the success of a regional collaboration. Nevertheless, empirical pictures indicated that the role of the Provincial Government was far from expectation, although it was not completely in-exist. Based on the case study of six Province, dynamics of the Provincial Government’s roles in regional collaboration can be observed. The study reveals similarities as well as the difference in the dynamics in each Province. It is obvious that the dynamics were influenced by conditions facing each Provincial Government that posed problems in managing regional collaboration. In the future, the role of the Provincial Government in regional collaboration needs to be strengthened through several models that have been recommended in this study, ranging from the simplest model to a more strategic one. It is expected that the optimization of the Provincial Government’s roles in regional collaboration would bring back the strategic position of the Provincial Government in front of Local Government as stipulated in Law Number 32 Year 2004.

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