A new social conflict on globalisation-related issues in Germany? A longitudinal perspective
By drawing on the theoretical framework of the globalisation cleavage literature, we aim to assess the existence of a social conflict on globalisation-related issues among the German population. We argue that opinion polarisation and issue salience are the key conditions of a successful and sustainable political mobilisation of citizens, and thus of the emergence of a social conflict. Accordingly, we investigate (1) the extent to which globalisation-related issues have become salient among the German population and (2) the extent to which the German population has become polarised on these issues. Our study takes into account four globalisation-related issue domains: “Immigration”, “EU”, “Economic liberalism” and “Environment”. Our analysis of the salience of these issue domains among Germans from 1989 to 2017 points to a durable increase in issue salience for the problem of “Immigration”, and this, only since the 2015 European “migrant crisis”. By contrast, the salience of “Economic liberalism”, “Europe” and “Environment” has remained very low during the studied period and only shows peaks related to critical events that last for a short time. Regarding opinion polarisation, we observe overall stable attitudes on globalisation-related issues among the German population since the 1990s. We only detect a general opinion shift towards more positive attitudes concerning immigration and environment protection measures. We conclude that the necessary conditions of a globalisation social conflict are so far not met among the German population.