scholarly journals A definition of the causal effect of a political party’s nominee on the U.S. presidential general election using counterfactual response types

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael David Garber ◽  
Lindsay J Collin ◽  
W. Dana Flanders
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Population Based ◽  
General Election ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
Election Result ◽  
The Third ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Counterfactual Model ◽  
The U.S

The electability of the candidates for the 2020 Democratic U.S. presidential nomination was frequently debated. In general, arguments regarding a given candidate’s electability often claim that they would affect the general election by changing the behavior of a certain subset of eligible voters. For example, is it more important electorally that a candidate drives turnout or swing voting? As lay consumers of political opinion, we were having difficulty weighing these claims from a strategic standpoint.Although candidate electability is a nebulous term that might be interpreted in various ways, one interpretation of the term is a population-based causal question: what would the effect of the Democratic nominee be on the presidential election result? Population-based causal questions are commonly studied in epidemiology. To aid interpretation of electability arguments, we frame the question through a counterfactual model used in epidemiology.Specifically, we define the causal effect by characterizing the population of eligible voters into nine counterfactual response types. The definition clarifies our ability to interpret arguments regarding the electability of the candidates. For example, the causal effect can be subdivided into three parts: the effect of the nominee on 1) Democratic turnout, 2) Republican turnout, and 3) swing voting. We show using notation that the third part has twice the weight as the other two.The definition follows intuition. However, we hope its formalization using counterfactual response types may foster inter-disciplinary communication.

Covert Action: United States Law in Substance, Process, and Practice

2010 ◽  
pp. 586-607 ◽  
Author(s):  
James E. Baker
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Legal Practice ◽  
Legal Regime ◽  
Covert Action ◽  
The Third ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Traditional Activity ◽  
The U.S

This article discusses covert action within the context of the U.S. law. The first section describes the main elements of the U.S. legal regime, including the definition of covert action and the “traditional activity” exceptions, the elements of a covert action finding, and the thresholds and requirements for congressional notification. The second section describes some of the significant limitations on the conduct of covert action. The third section discusses the nature of executive branch legal practice in this area of the law. And the last section draws conclusions about the role of national security law within the context of covert action.

The Netherlands, the Challenge of Lijst Pim Fortuyn, and the Third Way

Politics ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 156-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Bruff
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
General Election ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Third Way ◽  
Election Result ◽  
The Third

The shock 2002 general election result in the Netherlands has provided a wake-up call to those who believed it would withstand the Europe-wide rise of the far right more successfully than others. This article firstly investigates why Lijst Pim Fortuyn performed so well, and suggests that its popularity owes more to its anti-establishment stance than its xenophobic outlook. The second half of the article links the upheavals to normative deficiencies in the ‘third way’ framework, and concludes that a more distinctive left-of-centre agenda needs to be formulated, both in itself and in relation to containing the far right.

The Effect of Nomination Divisiveness on the 2008 Presidential Election

2010 ◽  
Vol 43 (02) ◽  
pp. 255-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscilla L. Southwell
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
General Election ◽  
2008 Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Nomination

AbstractThis research examines the effect of disgruntlement among primary and caucus voters who supported U.S. presidential nomination losers—a potentially divisive nomination process. I analyze the general election voting behavior of primary and caucus voters in the 2008 presidential election to determine if differences exist between supporters of the winning nominee in each party and backers of other candidates who also sought the nomination. A multivariate analysis of the determinants of “loyal party vote” suggests that Clinton and Edwards supporters showed a significantly higher degree of defection in the general election, although this behavior did not occur among people who voted for Romney or Huckabee in their state's primary or caucus.

ABOUT THE PROBLEM OF CLASSIFICATION OF THE CONCEPTS OF INFORMATICS STUDIED AT SECONDARY SCHOOL

2018 ◽  
pp. 4-7
Author(s):  
S. I. Zenko
Keyword(s):  
Secondary School ◽  
Foreign Language ◽  
Computer Science ◽  
Parts Of Speech ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Definition Of

The article raises the problem of classification of the concepts of computer science and informatics studied at secondary school. The efficiency of creation of techniques of training of pupils in these concepts depends on its solution. The author proposes to consider classifications of the concepts of school informatics from four positions: on the cross-subject basis, the content lines of the educational subject "Informatics", the logical and structural interrelations and interactions of the studied concepts, the etymology of foreign-language and translated words in the definition of the concepts of informatics. As a result of the first classification general and special concepts are allocated; the second classification — inter-content and intra-content concepts; the third classification — stable (steady), expanding, key and auxiliary concepts; the fourth classification — concepts-nouns, conceptsverbs, concepts-adjectives and concepts — combinations of parts of speech.

(A review). BRAUN-BLANQUETIA. Recueil de travaux de geobotanique / review of geobotanical monographs. Vol. 46. Centenaire de la phytosociologie. CAMERINO, 2010. 423 p.

2011 ◽  
pp. 143-147
Author(s):  
L. G. Naumova ◽  
V. B. Martynenko ◽  
S. M. Yamalov
Keyword(s):  
Plant Association ◽  
Northern Asia ◽  
The Third ◽  
International Botanical ◽  
International Botanical Congress ◽  
History Of ◽  
Definition Of

Date of «birth» of phytosociology (phytocenology) is considered to be 1910, when at the third International Botanical Congress in Brussels adopted the definition of plant association in the wording Including Flaó and K. Schröter (Flahault, Schröter, 1910; Alexandrov, 1969). The centenary of this momentous event in the history of phytocenology devoted to the 46th edition of the Yearbook «Braun-Blanquetia», which began to emerge in 1984 in Camerino (Italy) and it has a task to publish large geobotanical works. During the years of the publication of the Yearbook on its pages were published twice work of the Russian scientists — «The steppes of Mongolia» (Z. V. Karamysheva, V. N. Khramtsov. Vol. 17. 1995), and «Classification of continental hemiboreal forests of Northern Asia» (N. B. Ermakov in collaboration with English colleagues and J. Dring, J. Rodwell. Vol. 28. 2000).

Characteristics of the Metaphorical Image in the Poetry of Al-Sharif Al-Radhi

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Al-KhaierAmer Abdul Kareem
Keyword(s):  
The Third ◽  
Definition Of

Abstract The research started with an introduction containing the statement of the problem. The study was divided into four parts: a preamble and three sections. The preamble involved a definition of the metaphorical image and its importance. The first section covered the sources of the metaphorical image, the second dealt with the types of the metaphorical image, and the third discussed the functions of metaphorical representation as well as the main tools that contributed to the construction and formation of the metaphorical image. Finally, the study ended with a conclusion comprising the most significant findings of this research. keyword: metaphorical image, AL-Sharif Al-Radi.

Ildar Garipzanov, Caroline Goodson, and Henry Maguire, ed., Graphic Signs of Identity, Faith, and Power in Late Antiquity and the Early Middle Ages. Cursor Mundi, 27, Turnhout: Brepols, 2017, xviii, 392 p., 141 ill.

Mediaevistik ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 377-379
Author(s):  
Kriszta Kotsis
Keyword(s):  
Middle Ages ◽  
Interdisciplinary Research ◽  
Late Antiquity ◽  
Visual Communication ◽  
Group Identity ◽  
Religious Affiliation ◽  
Late Antique ◽  
The Third ◽  
Cursor Mundi ◽  
Definition Of

Late antique and early medieval graphic signs have traditionally been studied by narrowly focused specialists leading to the fragmentation and decontextualization of this important body of material. Therefore, the volume aims “to deepen interdisciplinary research on graphic signs” (7) of the third through tenth centuries, with contributions from archaeologists, historians, art historians, a philologist, and a paleographer. Ildar Garipzanov’s introduction defines the central terms (sign, symbol, graphicacy), calls for supplanting the text-image binary with “the concept of the visual-written continuum” (15), and argues that graphicacy was central to visual communication in this period. He emphasizes the agency of graphic signs and notes that their study can amplify our understanding of the definition of personal and group identity, the articulation of power, authority, and religious affiliation, and communication with the supernatural sphere.

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