scholarly journals Resolving Time Inconsistency of Decision Problem with Non-expectation Operator: From Internal Conflict to Internal Harmony by Strategy of Self-Coordination

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangyu Cui ◽  
Duan Li ◽  
Yun Shi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Maker ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Internal Conflict ◽  
Equilibrium Strategy ◽  
Game Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Time Inconsistent

When a stochastic decision problem is time inconsistent, the decision maker would be puzzled by his conflicting decisions optimally derived from his time-varying preferences at different time instants (with different time horizons). While the long-run self (LR) of the decision maker pursues the long-term optimality, the short-run selves (SRs) of the decision maker at different time instants bow to short-term temptations. While the literature began to recognize the importance to strike a balance between LR's and SRs' interests, the existing results are not applicable to situations where the decision maker's preferences involve non-expectation operators. We propose an operable unified two-tier dual-self game model with commitment by punishment, which can cope with general time inconsistent stochastic decision problems with both expectation and non-expectation operators in the objective function. By attaching punishment terms to both the preferences of LR and SRs which quantitatively evaluate the internal conflict among different selves, our game model aligns the interests of the LR and SRs to a certain degree. The equilibrium strategy, termed strategy of self-coordination, achieves some degree of internal harmony among various selves. We successfully apply the model to the investment and consumption problem with quasi-hyperbolic discounting and the dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem.

scholarly journals Markov decision processes with quasi-hyperbolic discounting

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Jaśkiewicz ◽  
Andrzej S. Nowak
Keyword(s):  
Markov Decision Processes ◽  
Dynamic Game ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
State Spaces ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Markov Perfect ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
Time Inconsistent ◽  
Perfect Equilibria

AbstractWe study Markov decision processes with Borel state spaces under quasi-hyperbolic discounting. This type of discounting nicely models human behaviour, which is time-inconsistent in the long run. The decision maker has preferences changing in time. Therefore, the standard approach based on the Bellman optimality principle fails. Within a dynamic game-theoretic framework, we prove the existence of randomised stationary Markov perfect equilibria for a large class of Markov decision processes with transitions having a density function. We also show that randomisation can be restricted to two actions in every state of the process. Moreover, we prove that under some conditions, this equilibrium can be replaced by a deterministic one. For models with countable state spaces, we establish the existence of deterministic Markov perfect equilibria. Many examples are given to illustrate our results, including a portfolio selection model with quasi-hyperbolic discounting.

Equilibrium models and explanation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence A. Boland
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium State ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Comparative Statics ◽  
Equilibrium Models ◽  
Main Mode ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Continuous Range ◽  
Disequilibrium Dynamics

This chapter examines the explanatory purpose of building equilibrium models and the need to consider dynamics and disequilibria. It examines Marshall’s two ‘Principles’ of explanation, the ‘Principle of Substitution’ (essentially the usual neoclassical premise that every decision maker is a maximizer) and the ‘Principle of Continuity’ (that using the assumption of maximization as a basis for explanation is not possible without a continuous range of options to choose among). Marshall’s main mode of explanation using these Principles is his comparative statics analysis. His version of comparative statics introduces a role for time by distinguishing his long-run from short-run equilibria. With this in mind, the chapter goes further to explain why an equilibrium state implies recognition of disequilibrium dynamics and why equilibrium models must recognize the knowledge necessary for the dynamics of equilibrium attainment.

If belief is a behavior, what controls it?

1997 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Ainslie
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
False Belief ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

“Self-deception” usually occurs when a false belief would be more rewarding than an objective belief in the short run, but less rewarding in the long run. Given hyperbolic discounting of delayed events, people will be motivated in their long-range interest to create self-enforcing rules for testing reality, and in their long-range interest to evade these rules. Self-deception, then, resembles interpersonal deception in being an evasion of rules, but differs in being a product of intertemporal conflict.

Individual time preferences and obesity

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moslem Soofi ◽  
Ali Akbari Sari ◽  
Satar Rezaei ◽  
Mohammad Hajizadeh ◽  
Farid Najafi
Keyword(s):  
Adult Population ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Time Preferences ◽  
Probit Regression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Time Inconsistent ◽  
High Level

Purpose Behavioral economic analysis of health-related behavior is a potentially useful approach to study and control non-communicable diseases. The purpose of this paper is to explore the time preferences of individuals and its impact on obesity in an adult population of Iran. Design/methodology/approach A structured questionnaire was completed by 792 individuals who were randomly selected from the participants of an ongoing national Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN cohort study in West of Iran. The quasi-hyperbolic discounting model was used to estimate the parameters of time preferences and a probit regression model was used to explore the correlation between obesity and time preferences. Findings There was a statistically significant correlation between obesity and both the long-run patience and present-biased preferences of participants. Individuals with a low level of long-run patience were 10.2 percentage points more likely to be obese compared to individuals with a high level of long-run patience. The probability of being obese increased by 11 percentage points in present-biased individuals compared to future biased individuals. Originality/value The long-run patience and time inconsistent preferences were significant determinants of obesity. Considering the time-inconsistent preferences in the development of policies to change obesity-related behavior among adults might increase the success rate of the interventions.

scholarly journals Impacts of Hyperbolic Discounting on Inventory Replenishment Policy Under Inflation

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-39
Author(s):  
Yongwu Zhou ◽  
Zhaozhan Lin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Maker ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Subjective Perception ◽  
Order Quantity ◽  
Inventory Policy ◽  
Objective Indicator ◽  
Inventory Replenishment ◽  
Replenishment Policy

AbstractConsidering time inconsistency and inter-temporal preference of the decision maker who is facing inter-temporal choices, this paper employs hyperbolic discounting to reflect these characteristics in governing inventory replenishment policy under inflation. The authors take the subjective perception of the decision maker and the objective indicator from the capital market into consideration. The decision maker’s subjective perception includes confidence towards future value of money and anxiety to return the money, while the objective indicator is represented by the compounded discount rate. The results suggest that over the given planning horizon, with more confidence, inventory policy of larger order quantity and smaller order frequency should be adopted; with more anxiety within a threshold, inventory policy of smaller order quantity and larger order frequency should be adopted, and with more anxiety beyond this threshold, inventory policy keeps unchanged; with a larger discount rate, inventory policy of smaller order quantity and larger order frequency should be adopted.

Multiself Bargaining

2020 ◽  
pp. 232102222093097
Author(s):  
Rudy Henkel
Keyword(s):  
Time Preference ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Welfare Effects ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Nash Bargaining ◽  
Preference Reversals ◽  
The Standard Model ◽  
Tullock Contest ◽  
Time Inconsistent ◽  
Nash Bargaining Problem

I propose a dual-self model in which two selves have conflicting preferences over the action to be taken by an agent. Departing from existing dual-self models, the two selves are treated symmetrically. They have identical instantaneous utility, and only differ in their time preference. The default action of the agent is modelled as the outcome of a Tullock contest among the selves, where the self who wins chooses their preferred action. Viewing the outcome of this contest as the point of disagreement, the selves are allowed to negotiate to a mutually preferred outcome, and this negotiation is modelled as a Nash bargaining problem. I show that multiple well documented ‘behavioural’ deviations from standard utility maximizing behaviour can be generated from this model, including time inconsistent behaviour such as diminishing impatience, as well as violations of independence of irrelevant alternatives in choice problems. Notably the preference reversals from time inconsistency are ‘smooth’, as opposed to the singular reversal in quasi-hyperbolic discounting, the standard model used in the literature. Further, the model implies correlation of these deviations due to their dependence on the same parameters. Finally, this approach provides insight on evaluating the welfare effects of various interventions.

scholarly journals Incentives, Commitments, and Habit Formation in Exercise: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Workers at a Fortune-500 Company

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 51-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather Royer ◽  
Mark Stehr ◽  
Justin Sydnor
Keyword(s):  
Health Behaviors ◽  
Field Experiment ◽  
Financial Incentives ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fortune 500 ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Incentive Programs ◽  
Incentive Program ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Financial incentives have shown strong positive short-run effects for problematic health behaviors that likely stem from time inconsistency. However, the effects often disappear once incentive programs end. This paper analyzes the results of a large-scale workplace field experiment to examine whether self-funded commitment contracts can improve the long-run effects of an incentive program. A four-week incentive program targeting use of the company gym generated only small lasting effects on behavior. Those that also offered a commitment contract at the end of the program, however, showed demand for commitment and significant long-run changes, detectable even several years after the incentive ended. (JEL D03, I10, J32)

Migration and US agricultural competitiveness

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip L. Martin
Keyword(s):  
Farm Workers ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Guest Workers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lower Wage ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One

Agriculture has one of the highest shares of foreign-born and unauthorized workers among US industries; over three-fourths of hired farm workers were born abroad, usually in Mexico, and over half of all farm workers are unauthorized. Farm employers are among the few to openly acknowledge their dependence on migrant and unauthorized workers, and they oppose efforts to reduce unauthorized migration unless the government legalizes currently illegal farm workers or provides easy access to legal guest workers. The effects of migrants on agricultural competitiveness are mixed. On the one hand, wages held down by migrants keep labour-intensive commodities competitive in the short run, but the fact that most labour-intensive commodities are shipped long distances means that long-run US competitiveness may be eroded as US farmers have fewer incentives to develop labour-saving and productivity-improving methods of farming and production in lower-wage countries expands.

Electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Ahmad Ghazali Ismail ◽  
Arlinah Abd Rashid ◽  
Azlina Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship and causality direction between electricity consumption and economic growth is an important issue in the fields of energy economics and policies towards energy use. Extensive literatures has discussed the issue, but the array of findings provides anything but consensus on either the existence of relations or direction of causality between the variables. This study extends research in this area by studying the long-run and causal relations between economic growth, electricity consumption, labour and capital based on the neo-classical one sector aggregate production technology mode using data of electricity consumption and real GDP for ASEAN from the year 1983 to 2012. The analysis is conducted using advanced panel estimation approaches and found no causality in the short run while in the long-run, the results indicate that there are bidirectional relationship among variables. This study provides supplementary evidences of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

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