Drivers of Indian Naval Expansion
Traditionally the neglected ‘Cinderella’ service of the Indian armed forces, the Indian Navy is in the midst of a modernization programme that has attracted international concern from commentators who worry that this might pose a risk to stability in the Indian Ocean or presage a naval arms race in Asia. This chapter attempts to understand what is driving this uncharacteristic focus on the Navy, concentrating on developments in the 20-year period since the end of the Cold War (1991–2011). The analysis proceeds in two parts. The first section examines several different measures, including number of ships, aggregate tonnage, number of missile cells and budgetary allocation to understand the trajectory of the Indian Navy over the past 20 years. Section two examines three oft-cited justifications for naval expansion – defence against hostile maritime powers, the cultivation of power projection capability to further India’s political interests, and the protection of trade – in relation to the fleet’s actual platform acquisitions to determine their relative importance in driving naval development. The available data suggests that the primary mission driving naval modernization is sea-lane security, with the development of ‘softer’ aspects of power projection capability receiving some support, while the need to deter hostile maritime powers does little to explain India’s recent naval modernization. This focus on enhancing India’s ability to provide regional ‘public goods,’ such as sea-lane security and humanitarian response, strongly suggests that this growing naval strength can emerge as a net positive for the region.