scholarly journals Multipath Forecasting: the Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Turchin
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Social Breakdown ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Parameterized Model ◽  
Human Costs ◽  
State Breakdown

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world. Most recently, the US was swept by a wave of protests, urban riots, and violent confrontations between left- and right-wing extremists. Understanding how future crises will unfold and assessing the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the human costs of state breakdown and civil war. In a recent publication (Turchin et al. 2018) we proposed a novel transdisciplinary approach to modeling social breakdown, recovery, and resilience. This approach builds on recent breakthroughs in macrosocial dynamics (and specifically structural-demographic theory), statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, and dynamic modelling. Our main goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery. We called this approach—similar to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). In this article I develop a “prototype” of the MPF engine with the goal of illustrating the utility a fully developed version may have. I first apply the computational model to the period of American history from the beginning of the nineteenth to the end of the twentieth century, with the goal of parameterizing the model and testing it against data. Then I use the parameterized model to forecast the dynamics of instability in the USA beyond 2020 and illustrate how the MPF engine can be used to explore the effects of different policy interventions.

Social Progress in Britain

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony F. Heath ◽  
Elizabeth Garratt ◽  
Ridhi Kashyap ◽  
Yaojun Li ◽  
Lindsay Richards
Keyword(s):  
Free Market ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
The Road ◽  
Social Divisions ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Usa ◽  
On The Road ◽  
Free Market Reforms ◽  
Made In

Social Progress in Britain examines how much progress has made in the years since Sir William Beveridge described the ‘five giants on the road to reconstruction’—the giants of Want, Disease, Ignorance, Squalor, and Idleness. The book has chapters examining the progress which Britain has made in improving material prosperity and tackling poverty; in extending length of life and tackling disease; in raising participation in education and improving educational standards; in tackling the scourge of unemployment, especially youth unemployment; and in providing better-quality housing and tackling overcrowding. In addition to Beveridge’s five giants, the book also explores inequalities of opportunity (focussing on inequalities between social classes, men and women, and ethnic groups), and the changing nature of social divisions and social cohesion in Britain. Throughout, the chapters put British progress into perspective by drawing comparisons with progress made in other large developed democracies such as Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, and the USA. As well as looking at the average level of prosperity, life expectancy, education, and housing, the book examines the extent of inequality around the average and pays particular attention to whether the most disadvantaged sections of society have shared in progress or have fallen behind. It concludes with an assessment of the effect of policy interventions such as Margaret Thatcher’s free market reforms of the 1980s on different aspects of social progress.

scholarly journals Correcting Citizens’ Misperceptions about non-Western Immigrants: Corrective Information, Interpretations, and Policy Opinions

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederik Juhl Jørgensen ◽  
Mathias Osmundsen
Keyword(s):  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Correct Information ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Large Scale Survey ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Information Change ◽  
Corrective Information

Abstract Can corrective information change citizens’ misperceptions about immigrants and subsequently lead to favorable immigration opinions? While prior studies from the USA document how corrections about the size of minority populations fail to change citizens’ immigration-related opinions, they do not examine how other facts that speak to immigrants’ cultural or economic dependency rates can influence immigration policy opinions. To extend earlier work, we conducted a large-scale survey experiment fielded to a nationally representative sample of Danes. We randomly expose participants to information about non-Western immigrants’ (1) welfare dependency rate, (2) crime rate, and (3) proportion of the total population. We find that participants update their factual beliefs in light of correct information, but reinterpret the information in a highly selective fashion, ultimately failing to change their policy preferences.

scholarly journals The utility of self-rated health in population surveys: the role of bodyweight

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Bozick
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Group ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Self Rated Health ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Group Members ◽  
Nationally Representative

Abstract Background Self-rated health (SRH) is one of the most commonly used summary measures of overall health and well-being available to population scientists due to its ease of administration in large-scale surveys and to its efficacy in predicting mortality. This paper assesses the extent to which SRH is affected by its placement before or after questions about bodyweight on a survey, and whether differences in placement on the questionnaire affects SRH’s predictive validity. Methods I assessed the validity of SRH in predicting the risk of mortality by comparing outcomes of sample members who were asked to rate their health before reporting on their bodyweight (the control group) and sample members who were asked to rate their health after reporting on their bodyweight (the treatment group). Both the control and treatment group were randomly assigned via an experiment administered as a module in a nationally representative sample of adults in the USA in 2019 (N = 2523). Results The odds of reporting a more favorable appraisal of health are 30% lower for sample members who were in the treatment group when compared with the control group. Additionally, the SRH of treatment group members is significantly associated with their risk of mortality, while the SRH of control group members is not. Conclusion The findings from this study suggest that for researchers to maximize the utility of SRH, closer attention needs to be paid to the context of the survey within which it asked. SRH is highly sensitive to the questions that precede it, and this sensitivity may in turn mischaracterize the true health of the population that the survey is intending to measure.

scholarly journals Untapped research opportunities in China: promising future avenues and potential concerns for aging companion animals

GeroScience ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica M. Hoffman ◽  
Shanshan Song ◽  
Katharina Brugger ◽  
Teresa G. Valencak
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Companion Animals ◽  
Companion Animal ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Pet Ownership ◽  
Ethical Considerations ◽  
Aging Research ◽  
Agricultural Animal ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Laboratory Models

AbstractCompanion animals have recently been proposed as ideal translational models of human aging due to their shared susceptibility for certain diseases, similar environments, and sophisticated veterinary medicine diagnostics, all of which are not possible in rodent laboratory models. Here, we introduce and propose the study of companion animals in China as a largely untapped resource in academic and veterinary aging research. Pet ownership rates along with economic gains in the pet industry have skyrocketed over the last decade in China. Yet, the majority of research institutions still focus on agricultural animal research, not companion animals. In this perspective, we compare available pet ownership rates between the USA, the European Union, and China before focusing on the potential of companion animal aging research in China. In addition, we highlight some ethical considerations that must be addressed before large-scale companion animal aging research can be completed.

scholarly journals Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen Production in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7804
Author(s):  
Christoph Falter ◽  
Andreas Sizmann
Keyword(s):  
Hydrogen Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
The United States ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Fossil Energy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Solar Thermochemical

Hydrogen produced from renewable energy has the potential to decarbonize parts of the transport sector and many other industries. For a sustainable replacement of fossil energy carriers, both the environmental and economic performance of its production are important. Here, the solar thermochemical hydrogen pathway is characterized with a techno-economic and life-cycle analysis. Assuming a further increase of conversion efficiency and a reduction of investment costs, it is found that hydrogen can be produced in the United States of America at costs of 2.1–3.2 EUR/kg (2.4–3.6 USD/kg) at specific greenhouse gas emissions of 1.4 kg CO2-eq/kg. A geographical potential analysis shows that a maximum of 8.4 × 1011 kg per year can be produced, which corresponds to about twelve times the current global and about 80 times the current US hydrogen production. The best locations are found in the Southwest of the US, which have a high solar irradiation and short distances to the sea, which is beneficial for access to desalinated water. Unlike for petrochemical products, the transport of hydrogen could potentially present an obstacle in terms of cost and emissions under unfavorable circumstances. Given a large-scale deployment, low-cost transport seems, however, feasible.

scholarly journals The MJO in a Coarse-Resolution GCM with a Stochastic Multicloud Parameterization

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Deng ◽  
Boualem Khouider ◽  
Andrew J. Majda
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Relevant Parameter ◽  
Convective Systems

Abstract The representation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is still a challenge for numerical weather prediction and general circulation models (GCMs) because of the inadequate treatment of convection and the associated interactions across scales by the underlying cumulus parameterizations. One new promising direction is the use of the stochastic multicloud model (SMCM) that has been designed specifically to capture the missing variability due to unresolved processes of convection and their impact on the large-scale flow. The SMCM specifically models the area fractions of the three cloud types (congestus, deep, and stratiform) that characterize organized convective systems on all scales. The SMCM captures the stochastic behavior of these three cloud types via a judiciously constructed Markov birth–death process using a particle interacting lattice model. The SMCM has been successfully applied for convectively coupled waves in a simplified primitive equation model and validated against radar data of tropical precipitation. In this work, the authors use for the first time the SMCM in a GCM. The authors build on previous work of coupling the High-Order Methods Modeling Environment (HOMME) NCAR GCM to a simple multicloud model. The authors tested the new SMCM-HOMME model in the parameter regime considered previously and found that the stochastic model drastically improves the results of the deterministic model. Clear MJO-like structures with many realistic features from nature are reproduced by SMCM-HOMME in the physically relevant parameter regime including wave trains of MJOs that organize intermittently in time. Also one of the caveats of the deterministic simulation of requiring a doubling of the moisture background is not required anymore.

Events in Northern Africa and Middle East: Causes and Consequences

2011 ◽  
pp. 11-25
Author(s):  
I. Labinskaya
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Northern Africa ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Oriental Studies

Political developments in North Africa and the Middle East that have begun in January 2011 are gaining strength and involve an increasing number of Arab countries. The participants of the Roundtable – experts from IMEMO, Institute of Oriental Studies (RAS), Institute of the USA and Canada (RAS) and Mrs. E. Suponina from “Moscow News” newspaper analyzed a wide range of issues associated with these events. Among them are: 1) the reasons for such a large-scale explosion, 2) the nature of the discussed developments (revolutions, riots?) and who are the subjects of the current “Arab drama”, 3) the role of Islam and political Islamism, 4) the role of external factors.

Research and industrialisation of Hermetia illucens L. in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-12
Author(s):  
J.B. Zhang ◽  
J.K. Tomberlin ◽  
M.M. Cai ◽  
X.P. Xiao ◽  
L.Y. Zheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Organic Waste ◽  
Animal Feed ◽  
Egg Laying ◽  
Breeding Method ◽  
Hermetia Illucens ◽  
Cold Temperatures ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Government ◽  
Future Work

The larvae of the black soldier fly (BSF), Hermetia illucens L., are commonly associated with decaying organic wastes. Over the past 15 years, investigators in China have conducted extensive research exploring the use of BSF larvae to recycle organic materials as a means to protect the environment, while producing products of value, such as protein and bioenergy. Initial efforts were based on a BSF strain from the USA. However, since then, H. illucens strains from specimens collected in Hubei and Guangdong Provinces have been established and used as models to explore the use of this species in sustainable agriculture. China has played an instrumental role in developing an in-door breeding method using a quartz-iodine lamp rather than depend on natural sunlight. This discovery has allowed the establishment of in-door BSF colonies in regions throughout the world where abiotic conditions (i.e. cold temperatures) are preventative. Researchers in China paved the way for using microbes as a means to enhance BSF production including, enhancing BSF egg-laying as well as waste reduction. Furthermore, bacteria from BSF gut or waste can be cultured and used to promote BSF growth, shorten conversion time, and enhanced conversion efficacy. Recent efforts have demonstrated BSF larvae can degrade antibiotics as well as suppress noxious odours in livestock manure. Due to the efforts of research on BSF in China, numerous companies that recycle organic waste at a large scale (>20 tonnes waste digested/day), have been established. Resulting products include insect powder, and live BSFL that can be used as animal feed ingredients for livestock (e.g. eels and frogs), while protecting the environment. Future work will decipher the mechanisms regulating BSF larval conversion of organic waste so that the system can be optimised. However, efforts are still needed at the government level to establish quality assurance standards if this process is truly to become established as an industry in China.

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