Migration Induced by Sea Level Rise could Reshape the US Population Landscape

Mapping Intimacies ◽

10.31235/osf.io/hfr96 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Mathew Hauer

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Population Distribution ◽

Global Environmental Change ◽

The United States ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Population Distributions ◽

Global Environmental ◽

Populations At Risk ◽

The Us

Many sea level rise assessments focus on populations presently inhabiting vulnerable coastal communities, but to date no studies have attempted to model the destinations of these potentially displaced persons. With millions of potential future migrants in heavily populated coastal communities, sea level rise scholarship focusing solely on coastal communities characterizes sea level rise as primarily a coastal issue, obscuring the potential impacts in landlocked communities created by sea level rise induced displacement. Here I address this issue by merging projected populations at-risk of sea level rise with migration systems simulations to project future destinations of sea level rise migrants in the United States (U.S.). I find that unmitigated sea level rise is expected to reshape the U.S. population distribution, potentially stressing landlocked areas unprepared to accommodate this wave of coastal migrants -- even after accounting for potential adaptation. These results provide the first glimpse of how climate change will reshape future population distributions and establishes a new foundation for modelling potential migration destinations from climate stressors in an era of global environmental change.

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Public priorities on locally-driven sea level rise planning on the East Coast of the United States

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.9044 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

pp. e9044

Author(s):

Adam T. Carpenter

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Saltwater Intrusion ◽

East Coast ◽

The United States ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Local Planning ◽

Public Officials ◽

Key Aspects

Sea level rise poses a substantial concern to communities worldwide. Increased inundation, storm surge, saltwater intrusion, and other impacts create challenges which will require considerable planning to address. Recognizing the broad and differing scope of sea level rise issues and the variability of policy options to address them, local planning frameworks are necessary in addition to tools and resources available from state and federal governments. To help assess priorities and preferences on sea level rise planning, a survey of 503 persons affiliated with coastal communities on the East Coast of the United States was conducted in December 2017. This survey studied key aspects locally-driven sea level rise plans, including planning priorities, funding options, methods to resolve conflict, and potential responses. Six key findings address these and other concerns to provide the foundation of a locally driven framework for public officials.

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Stormtools Design Elevation (SDE) Maps: Including Impact of Sea Level Rise

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse8040292 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 292 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Malcolm L. Spaulding ◽

Annette Grilli ◽

Chris Damon ◽

Reza Hashemi ◽

Soroush Kouhi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Rhode Island ◽

Wave Model ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Wave Crest ◽

Inundation Depth ◽

The Us ◽

Insurance Rate ◽

The Impact

Many coastal communities in the US use base flood elevation (BFE) maps for the 100-year return period, specified on Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), to design structures and infrastructure. The FIRMs are increasingly known to have serious problems in accurately specifying the risk coastal communities face, as most recently evidenced during hurricanes Harvey and Irma in 2017 and Florence and Michael in 2018. The FIRM BFE maps also do not include the impact of sea level rise, which clearly needs to be considered in the design of coastal structures over the next several decades given recent National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sea level rise (SLR) projections. Here, we generate alternative BFE maps (STORMTOOLS Design Elevation (SDE) maps) for coastal waters of Rhode Island (RI) using surge predictions from tropical and extratropical storms of the coupled surge-wave models from the US Army Corp of Engineers, North Atlantic Comprehensive Coast Study (NACCS). Wave predictions are based on application of a steady state, spectral wave model (STWAVE), while impacts of coastal erosion/accretion and changes of geomorphology are modeled using XBeach. The high-resolution application of XBeach to the southern RI shoreline has dramatically increased the ability to represent the details of dune erosion and overtopping and the associated development of surge channels and over-wash fans and the resulting landward impact on inundation and waves. All methods used were consistent with FEMA guidelines for the study area and used FEMA-approved models. Maps were generated for 0, 2 ft (0.6 m), 5 ft (1.5 m), 7 ft (2.1 m), and 10 ft (3.1 m) of sea level rise, reflecting NOAA high estimates at various times for the study area through 2100. Results of the simulations are shown for both the southern RI shoreline (South Coast) and Narragansett Bay, to facilitate communication of projected BFEs to the general public. The maps are hosted on the STORMTOOLS ESRI Hub to facilitate access to the data. They are also now part of the RI Coastal Resources Management Council (CRMC) risk-based permitting system. The user interface allows access to all supporting data including grade elevation, inundation depth, and wave crest heights as well as corresponding FEMA FIRM BFEs and associated zones.

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Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-01096-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Jeremy Johnston ◽

Felicio Cassalho ◽

Tyler Miesse ◽

Celso M. Ferreira

Keyword(s):

North Carolina ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Fold Increase ◽

The United States ◽

Substantial Contribution ◽

Population Distributions

AbstractMuch of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to undergo subsidence due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with eustatic sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to an increased rate of relative SLR. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model to project storm surges across coastal North Carolina. Recent hurricanes Irene and Matthew are simulated considering SLR and subsidence estimates for 2100. Relative to present day conditions, storm surge susceptible regions increase by 27% (Irene) to 40% (Matthew) due to subsidence. Combined with SLR (+ 74 cm), results suggest more than a doubling of areal flood extent for Irene and more than a three-fold increase for Hurricane Matthew. Considering current regional population distributions, this translates to an increase in at-risk populations of 18% to 61% due to subsidence. Even further, exposed populations are projected to swell relative to Matthew and Irene baseline simulations (8200 and 28,500) by more than 70,000 in all SLR scenarios (79,400 to 133,600). While increases in surge inundation are driven primarily by SLR in the region, there remains a substantial contribution due to vertical land movement. This outlines the importance of exploring spatially variable land movement in surge prediction, independent of SLR.

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Economic evaluation of sea-level rise adaptation strongly influenced by hydrodynamic feedbacks

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.2025961118 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 118 (29) ◽

pp. e2025961118

Author(s):

Michelle A. Hummel ◽

Robert Griffin ◽

Katie Arkema ◽

Anne D. Guerry

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

San Francisco ◽

Economic Assessment ◽

The United States ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Coastal Bays ◽

Shoreline Protection ◽

Sea Level Rise Adaptation ◽

Shared Risk

Coastal communities rely on levees and seawalls as critical protection against sea-level rise; in the United States alone, $300 billion in shoreline armoring costs are forecast by 2100. However, despite the local flood risk reduction benefits, these structures can exacerbate flooding and associated damages along other parts of the shoreline—particularly in coastal bays and estuaries, where nearly 500 million people globally are at risk from sea-level rise. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the economic impact of this dynamic, however, are poorly understood. Here we combine hydrodynamic and economic models to assess the extent of both local and regional flooding and damages expected from a range of shoreline protection and sea-level rise scenarios in San Francisco Bay, California. We find that protection of individual shoreline segments (5 to 75 km) can increase flooding in other areas by as much as 36 million m3 and damages by $723 million for a single flood event and in some cases can even cause regional flood damages that exceed the local damages prevented from protection. We also demonstrate that strategic flooding of certain shoreline segments, such as those with gradually sloping baylands and space for water storage, can help alleviate flooding and damages along other stretches of the coastline. By matching the scale of the economic assessment to the scale of the threat, we reveal the previously uncounted costs associated with uncoordinated adaptation actions and demonstrate that a regional planning perspective is essential for reducing shared risk and wisely spending adaptation resources in coastal bays.

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Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-22838-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Benjamin H. Strauss ◽

Philip M. Orton ◽

Klaus Bittermann ◽

Maya K. Buchanan ◽

Daniel M. Gilford ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

East Coast ◽

The United States ◽

Hurricane Sandy ◽

Water Levels ◽

Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽

Economic Damage ◽

Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

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Coastal wetlands can be saved from sea level rise by recreating past tidal regimes

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-80977-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Mahmood Sadat-Noori ◽

Caleb Rankin ◽

Duncan Rayner ◽

Valentin Heimhuber ◽

Troy Gaston ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Coastal Wetlands ◽

Environmental Crisis ◽

Ground Vegetation ◽

Proof Of Concept ◽

Tidal Regime ◽

Vegetation Sampling ◽

Global Environmental ◽

Intertidal Ecosystems

AbstractClimate change driven Sea Level Rise (SLR) is creating a major global environmental crisis in coastal ecosystems, however, limited practical solutions are provided to prevent or mitigate the impacts. Here, we propose a novel eco-engineering solution to protect highly valued vegetated intertidal ecosystems. The new ‘Tidal Replicate Method’ involves the creation of a synthetic tidal regime that mimics the desired hydroperiod for intertidal wetlands. This synthetic tidal regime can then be applied via automated tidal control systems, “SmartGates”, at suitable locations. As a proof of concept study, this method was applied at an intertidal wetland with the aim of restabilising saltmarsh vegetation at a location representative of SLR. Results from aerial drone surveys and on-ground vegetation sampling indicated that the Tidal Replicate Method effectively established saltmarsh onsite over a 3-year period of post-restoration, showing the method is able to protect endangered intertidal ecosystems from submersion. If applied globally, this method can protect high value coastal wetlands with similar environmental settings, including over 1,184,000 ha of Ramsar coastal wetlands. This equates to a saving of US$230 billion in ecosystem services per year. This solution can play an important role in the global effort to conserve coastal wetlands under accelerating SLR.

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Using Virtual Reality in Sea Level Rise Planning and Community Engagement—An Overview

Water ◽

10.3390/w13091142 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 1142

Author(s):

Juliano Calil ◽

Geraldine Fauville ◽

Anna Carolina Muller Queiroz ◽

Kelly L. Leo ◽

Alyssa G. Newton Mann ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Virtual Reality ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Community Outreach ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Coastal Hazards ◽

Multidisciplinary Teams ◽

Simple Task ◽

Coastal Risks

As coastal communities around the globe contend with the impacts of climate change including coastal hazards such as sea level rise and more frequent coastal storms, educating stakeholders and the general public has become essential in order to adapt to and mitigate these risks. Communicating SLR and other coastal risks is not a simple task. First, SLR is a phenomenon that is abstract as it is physically distant from many people; second, the rise of the sea is a slow and temporally distant process which makes this issue psychologically distant from our everyday life. Virtual reality (VR) simulations may offer a way to overcome some of these challenges, enabling users to learn key principles related to climate change and coastal risks in an immersive, interactive, and safe learning environment. This article first presents the literature on environmental issues communication and engagement; second, it introduces VR technology evolution and expands the discussion on VR application for environmental literacy. We then provide an account of how three coastal communities have used VR experiences developed by multidisciplinary teams—including residents—to support communication and community outreach focused on SLR and discuss their implications.

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