scholarly journals Forecasting the Net Interest Margin and Loan Loss Provision Ratio of Banks in Various Economic Scenarios: Evidence from Poland

2019 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin Borsuk ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-49
Author(s):  
Cici Widowati ◽  
Najiba Dara Ninggar ◽  
Raden Arief Wibowo

This study investigates the relationship between deposits growth (DG), bank capital (TIER1), credits growth (CG), loan loss provision to asset (LLPA), net interest margin (NIM), and bank risk which proxied by SDROA, SDROE, and ZSCORE. The analysis in this paper uses 11 samples of listed banks in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), which are carried out at the annual level from 2006 to 2018. The results indicate that the influence of bank capital (TIER1), credits growth (CG), and loan loss provision to asset (LLPA), are always persistent and significant. According to the results of this paper, the influence of deposits growth (DG), bank capital (TIER1), and credits growth (CG), on bank risk, tends to be negative since the bank risk proxy is SDROA or SDROE, while the influence of loan loss provision to asset (LLPA) and net interest margin (NIM), on bank risk, tends to be positive since the bank risk proxy is ZSCORE. However, the result of this study also shows that bank risk proxies do react differently to the determinants of bank risk.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iktimal Abdel Reda ◽  
Husam Rjoub ◽  
Ahmad Abu Alrub

The purpose of this study is to shed some lights on the determinants of banks’ profitability operating in Lebanon. Through applying Panel “EGLS period SUR” technique, for the period spans from 2000 to 2015. We have used a set of micro factors that might affect the banks’ profitability such as; asset quality, liquidity, and capital adequacy, on a sample of twenty four banks operating in Lebanon. Net Interest Margin (NIM) has been used to measure the profitability. The results indicate that most positive powerful effects on NIM are Equity to Liability, and Interest rate on Deposits (on Average), and to a lower extent Loan Loss Reserve to Impairment Loans, the Impaired Loans to Equity, Liquid Assets to Total Deposits and Borrowings, whereas, Capital Funds to Liability, loan loss provision to net interest revenue, are the most significant but with a negative effect; and to lower extent Net charge Off to Average gross loans, Net loans to deposits and short term borrowing affect the NIM negatively. Our findings revealed that banks perform better when they maintain higher level of equity relative to their Liabilities, and then can achieve a higher level of profitability.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 209-217
Author(s):  
Chiaku Chukwuogor ◽  
Emmanuel Anoruo ◽  
Ikechukwu Ndu

This study investigates the determinants of the profitability of U.S. banks. Employing quarterly data, this paper further examines the historical and recent trends for all U.S. banks from 1996 to 2019 in the relationship between return and assets (ROA) and other bank internal (or endogenous) profitability contributors such as net interest margin (NIM), loan loss reserves, ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans, and external (or exogenous) macroeconomic variables, such as the 30-year average mortgage rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) economic growth rate, unemployment rate, interest rate, inflation rate and openness (i.e., exports + imports/GDP) by using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator technique. The results reveal that bank-specific variables, including net interest margin, loan loss reserves and non-performing loans, have a significant impact on bank profitability in the United States. Similarly, the results show that macroeconomic variables, namely the average mortgage rate, economic growth, and unemployment rate, exert significant effects on the U.S. banks’ profitability. The results further indicate that changes in openness are detrimental to bank profitability. The implications are discussed.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 217
Author(s):  
Shakeel Ahmed ◽  
M. Ejaz Majeed ◽  
Eleftherios Thalassinos ◽  
Yannis Thalassinos

The current study examines macro-economic and bank specific determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) for commercial banks from 2008–2018. The Pakistani banking sector has observed a significant increase in NPLs. In addition, the current study is undertaken to fill this gap in the literature as most of the prior studies focus on the developed markets. In the current study, we prefer the system GMM estimator. Its reliability depends on the validity of the instruments. To testing the second-order serial correlation, we apply the J test for testing the validity of the instruments and the Arellano–Bond AR (2) test. Using dynamic-GMM estimations, we find that credit growth, net interest margin, loan loss provision, and bank diversification significantly increase NPLs, while operating efficiency, bank size, and ROA lower NPLs. In addition, higher interest rates, exchange rates, and political risk significantly increase NPLs, while GDP growth decreases NPLs. This paper provides a timely insight to management and policy makers about the determinants of NPLs. The findings help management to take corrective actions and policy makers may take into consideration the significance of macro-economic conditions while formulating policy regarding NPLs. Likewise, the study provides insight to potential investors to consider the findings while selecting better investment opportunity. The current study is the first of its kind focusing on the link among bank specific, macroeconomic variables, and non-performing loans within the specific context of an emerging economy, Pakistan.


Liquidity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
Amrizal Amrizal

The article focuses to analyze finance ratio consist of Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), Net Interest Margin (NIM) Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) except Earnings before Interest Tax (EBIT). The research is conducted to three conventional banking (BNI 46, Mandiri and BRI) and three syariah banking (Bank Muamalat Indonesia, Bank Mega Syaria and Bank Syariah Mandiri) for annual report periods 2007 to 2011. The result shows, the average increase EBIT to conventional banking groups during period 2007 to 2011 are 1.91% while the average EBIT to syariah banking groups are 1.53%. The average of ROA to conventional banking groups are 3.01% while the average ROA to syariah banking groups are 1.99%. The average of ROE to conventional banking groups is 24.19% while the average of ROE to syariah banking groups is 33.31%. The average of NIM to conventional banking groups during period 2007 to 2011 are 7.08% while the average of NIM to syariah banking groups during period 2007 to 2011 are 8.14%. The average of CAR to conventional banking groups is 15.63%, while the average of CAR to syariah banking groups during the period are 12.19%.


2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (02) ◽  
pp. 31-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
KOLAPO T. Funso ◽  
AYENI R. Kolade ◽  
OKE M. Ojo

The study carried out an empirical investigation into the quantitative effect of credit risk on the performance of commercial banks in Nigeria over the period of 11 years (2000-2010). Five commercial banking firms were selected on a cross sectional basis for eleven years. The traditional profit theory was employed to formulate profit, measured by Return on Asset (ROA), as a function of the ratio of Non-performing loan to loan & Advances (NPL/LA), ratio of Total loan & Advances to Total deposit (LA/TD) and the ratio of loan loss provision to classified loans (LLP/CL) as measures of credit risk. Panel model analysis was used to estimate the determinants of the profit function. The results showed that the effect of credit risk on bank performance measured by the Return on Assets of banks is cross-sectional invariant. That is the effect is similar across banks in Nigeria, though the degree to which individual banks are affected is not captured by the method of analysis employed in the study. A 100 percent increase in non-performing loan reduces profitability (ROA) by about 6.2 percent, a 100 percent increase in loan loss provision also reduces profitability by about 0.65percent while a 100 percent increase in total loan and advances increase profitability by about 9.6 percent. Based on our findings, it is recommended that banks in Nigeria should enhance their capacity in credit analysis and loan administration while the regulatory authority should pay more attention to banks’ compliance to relevant provisions of the Bank and other Financial Institutions Act (1999) and prudential guidelines.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-29
Author(s):  
Amalia Amanda Hidayah ◽  
Eti Kurniati ◽  
Farid H. Badruzzaman

Abstract. This study used a sample of 6 companies. The research objective was to determine the effect of Non Performing Loans (NPL), Operational Costs on Operational Income (OCOI), Net Interest Margin (NIM), Loan to Deposits Ratio ( LDR) and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) to profitability (ROA). Problem solving using multiple linear regression analysis techniques. Based on the analysis, it is known that NPL and LDR have a significant negative effect on profitability (ROA), while CAR have a significant positive effect on profitability (ROA). Abstrak. Penelitian ini menggunakan sampel sebanyak 6 perusahaan. Tujuan penelitian untuk mengetahui pengaruh Non Performing Loan (NPL), Biaya Operasional terhadap Pendapatan Operasional (BOPO), Net Interest Margin (NIM), Loan to Deposits Ratio (LDR) dan Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) terhadap profitabilitas (ROA). Pemecahan masalah menggunakan teknik analisis regresi linier berganda. Berdasarkan hasil analisis maka diketahui bahwa NPL dan LDR berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap profitabilitas (ROA), sedangkan CAR berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap profitabilitas (ROA).


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