scholarly journals A Multi-Country BVAR Model for the External Sector

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (4) ◽  
pp. 98-112
Author(s):  
Olga Korotkikh ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Usa ◽  
External Sector ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
Growth Forecasts

This paper describes a multi-country BVAR model developed and used by the Monetary Policy Department of the Bank of Russia. The model makes it possible to build coordinated scenario forecasts for the main macro-variables of the USA, the euro area, and China. The simultaneous modelling for the three economies makes it possible to take into account multi-country interactions of the variables and, thus, improve the predictive performance of the model compared to VAR analogues intended for individual countries. The model is based on the deviations of the variables from their potential values, which enhances GDP growth forecasts compared to a non-detrended design. A wide range of macroeconomic and financial indicators in the model makes the forecast of overall inflation more accurate against simpler benchmarks.

Economic Growth and Macro Variables in India: An Empirical Study

2015 ◽  
pp. 42-59
Author(s):  
Saba Ismail ◽  
Shahid Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
The Government ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

The research objective of this paper is to explore the empirical linkages between economic growth and foreign direct investment (FDI), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and trade openness in India (TOP) over the period 1980 to 2013. The study reveals a positive relationship between economic growth and FDI, GFCF and TOP. This study establishes a strong unidirectional causal flow from changes in FDI, trade openness and capital formation to the economic growth rates of India. The impulse response function traces the positive influence of these macro variables on the GDP growth rates of India. The study also reveals that the volatility of GDP growth rates in India is mainly attributed to the variation in the level of GFCF and FDI. The study concludes that the FDI inflows and the size of capital formation are the main determinants of economic growth. In view of this, it is expected that the government of India should provide more policy focus on promoting FDI inflows and domestic capital formations to increase its economic growth in the long-term.

Financial and monetary policy of the State and its impact on the income level and poverty reduction in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 964-990
Author(s):  
N.I. Kulikov ◽  
V.L. Parkhomenko ◽  
Akun Anna Stefani Rozi Mobio
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
The State ◽  
Financial Policy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject. We assess the impact of tight financial and monetary policy of the government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia on the level of household income and poverty reduction in Russia. Objectives. The purpose of the study is to analyze the results of financial and monetary policy in Russia and determine why the situation with household income and poverty has not changed for the recent six years, and the GDP growth rate in Russia is significantly lagging behind the global average. Methods. The study employs methods of analysis of scientific and information base, and synthesis of obtained data. The methodology and theoretical framework draw upon works of domestic and foreign scientists on economic and financial support to economy and population’s income. Results. We offer measures for liberalization of the financial and monetary policy of the government and the Central Bank to ensure changes in the structure of the Russian economy. The proposed alternative economic and financial policy of the State will enable the growth of real incomes of the population, poverty reduction by half by 2024, and annual GDP growth up to 6 per cent. Conclusions. It is crucial to change budget priorities, increase the salaries of public employees, introduce a progressive tax rate for individuals; to reduce the key rate to the value of annual inflation and limit the bank margin. The country needs a phased program to increase the population's income, which will ensure consumer demand.

Macroeconomic Volatility Trade-off and Monetary Policy Regime in the Euro Area

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro Pinto Coelho de Aguiar ◽  
Manuel Mota Freitas Martins
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Macroeconomic Volatility

scholarly journals Geospatial Analysis of COVID-19: A Scoping Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2336
Author(s):  
Munazza Fatima ◽  
Kara J. O’Keefe ◽  
Wenjia Wei ◽  
Sana Arshad ◽  
Oliver Gruebner
Keyword(s):  
Disease Mapping ◽  
Geospatial Analysis ◽  
Hotspot Analysis ◽  
Spatial Studies ◽  
Epidemiological Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Scoping Reviews ◽  
Disease Pattern ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Meta Analyses

The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China in late December 2019 became the harbinger of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, geospatial techniques, such as modeling and mapping, have helped in disease pattern detection. Here we provide a synthesis of the techniques and associated findings in relation to COVID-19 and its geographic, environmental, and socio-demographic characteristics, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) methodology for scoping reviews. We searched PubMed for relevant articles and discussed the results separately for three categories: disease mapping, exposure mapping, and spatial epidemiological modeling. The majority of studies were ecological in nature and primarily carried out in China, Brazil, and the USA. The most common spatial methods used were clustering, hotspot analysis, space-time scan statistic, and regression modeling. Researchers used a wide range of spatial and statistical software to apply spatial analysis for the purpose of disease mapping, exposure mapping, and epidemiological modeling. Factors limiting the use of these spatial techniques were the unavailability and bias of COVID-19 data—along with scarcity of fine-scaled demographic, environmental, and socio-economic data—which restrained most of the researchers from exploring causal relationships of potential influencing factors of COVID-19. Our review identified geospatial analysis in COVID-19 research and highlighted current trends and research gaps. Since most of the studies found centered on Asia and the Americas, there is a need for more comparable spatial studies using geographically fine-scaled data in other areas of the world.

scholarly journals Bioinsecticides based on plant essential oils: a short overview

2020 ◽  
Vol 75 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 179-182
Author(s):  
Murray B. Isman
Keyword(s):  
Essential Oils ◽  
Crop Protection ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Regulatory Agencies ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Plant Essential Oils ◽  
The Past ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Regulatory Challenges

AbstractInterest in the discovery and development of plant essential oils for use as bioinsecticides has grown enormously in the past 20 years. However, successful commercialization and utilization of crop protection products based on essential oils has thus far lagged far behind their promise based on this large body of research, most notably because with the exceptions of the USA and Australia, such products receive no special status from regulatory agencies that approve new pesticides for use. Essential oil-based insecticides have now been used in the USA for well over a decade, and more recently have seen use in the European Union (EU), Korea, and about a dozen other countries, with demonstrated efficacy against a wide range of pests and in numerous crop systems. For the most part these products are based on commodity essential oils developed as flavor and fragrance agents for the food and cosmetic industries, as there are formidable logistic, economic, and regulatory challenges to the use of many other essential oils that otherwise possess potentially useful bioactivity against pests. In spite of these limitations, the overall prospects for biopesticides, including those based on essential oils, are encouraging as the demand for sustainably-produced and/or organic food continues to increase worldwide.

Country-specific euro area government bond yield reactions to ECB’s non-standard monetary policy program announcements

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 417-474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Fendel ◽  
Frederik Neugebauer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Current Spread ◽  
Policy Program ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
Country Specific

AbstractThis paper employs event study methods to evaluate the effects of ECB’s non-standard monetary policy program announcements on 10-year government bond yields of 11 euro area member states. Measurable effects of announcements arise with a one-day delay meaning that government bond markets take some time to react to ECB announcements. The country-specific extent of yield reduction seems inversely related to the solvency rating of the corresponding countries. The spread between core and periphery countries reduces because of a stronger decrease in the latter. This result is confirmed by letting the announcement variable interact with the current spread level.

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