scholarly journals Impact of Government Measures to Support Mortgage Lending on Housing Affordability in Russia: Regional Evidence

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (4) ◽  
pp. 98-123
Author(s):  
Ianina Roshchina ◽  
◽  
Natalia Ilyunkina ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Housing Prices ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Government Support ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Support Housing ◽  
Quantitative Indicators ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates housing affordability in Russia: factors of affordability, quantitative indicators, and government support measures. We are especially interested in the mortgage rate subsidy programmes that were implemented in 2015–2016 and 2020–2021 and their impact on housing affordability indicators. In order to evaluate impact of the first programme, we use a model of the real estate market and we decompose the index of housing affordability into different factors. As a result of our econometric analysis, we conclude that in general the programme was successful. Data about the second programme are not yet sufficient, so we evaluate its impact by a statistical analysis of the dynamics of the main indicators. We conclude that the impact is ambiguous: up until a particular moment (different in different regions), borrowers could benefit from the programme, but after that moment the increase in housing prices caused by the programme itself were exceeding the benefits from the subsidised rates. In conclusion, we provide some methods to improve the effectiveness of government measures to support housing affordability, which could be useful in the development of new programmes.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Development of the Mortgage System on the Availability of Residential Real Estate

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 326-336
Author(s):  
Boris Bedin ◽  
Natalya Kovalevskaya
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The article discusses approaches to solving the problem of ensuring housing affordability, which is relevant for many countries, including Russia. The concepts of «residential real estate market» and «housing affordability» are analyzed from various points of view; criteria that characterize housing affordability are defined. The possibilities of using various methods of acquiring residential real estate in a market eco­nomy are analyzed. The features of the Russian system of mortgage lending based on a comparison of approaches to determining the affordability of housing in Russia and abroad are noted. As a key area for solving the problem of housing affordability, the possibilities of a mortgage lending system are considered. Statistical data are presented. They demonstrate the relationship between the indicators cha­racterizing the state of the mortgage lending system and the dynamics of prices in the real estate market. The relationship between the availability of mortgages and the availability of housing is indicated.

New Mortgage Lenders and the Housing Market*

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikodem Szumilo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Banking Market ◽  
The Real Estate Market

Abstract This article examines the effect of a new lender’s entry into a local mortgage market on the supply of new loans, housing prices and repossessions in areas around its branches. I use the decision of the European Commission to force the UK’s largest retail bank to divest a part of its business as a shock to the entry of a new lender, and show that incumbent banks increase mortgage lending in areas where the new bank has its branches. Furthermore, house prices increase by around 5% in the real estate market impacted by the shock. Average transaction numbers and mortgage repossession rates also increase in places where the new bank enters. Overall, my results show that increased competition in the banking market can have adverse consequences for risk-taking and financial stability.

scholarly journals MORTGAGE LENDING MARKET IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: CURRENT STATE, PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (53) ◽  
pp. 72-78
Author(s):  
S.A. Starykh  ◽  
◽  
S.A. Lavoshnikova  ◽  
 A.D. Chesnokova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Financial Bubble ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The market of mortgage housing lending in the Russian Federation. Topic. The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the mortgage lending market. Purpose. Analyze the housing mortgage lending market in the Russian Federation and identify the reasons for its explosive growth in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2020. Methodology. Methods of comparative analysis of the housing mortgage lending market in the Russian Federation. Results. The possibility of the formation of a financial bubble in the real estate market in Russia is studied, and the probable prospects for the development of the mortgage market are evaluated Application area. The mortgage lending market, including the behavior of borrowers (buyers in the housing market) and the activities of credit institutions. Conclusions. The article analyzes the housing mortgage lending market in the Russian Federation and identifies the reasons for its explosive growth in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2020. The article examines the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the mortgage lending market, including the behavior of borrowers (buyers in the housing market) and the activities of credit institutions. The possibility of the formation of a financial bubble in the real estate market in Russia is studied, and the probable prospects for the development of the mortgage market are evaluated. Keywords: mortgage lending, deferred demand, financial bubble, coronavirus pandemic, mortgage lending rate, key rate, average credit rating of the borrower, overdue debt, bankruptcy, reserves for possible losses.

The impact of external factors on housing prices in Lithuania

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alina Stundziene ◽  
Vaida Pilinkienė ◽  
Andrius Grybauskas
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to identify the external factors that have the greatest impact on housing prices in Lithuania. Design/methodology/approach The econometric analysis includes stationarity test, Granger causality test, correlation analysis, linear and non-linear regression modes, threshold regression and autoregressive distributed lag models. The analysis is performed based on 137 external factors that can be grouped into macroeconomic, business, financial, real estate market, labour market indicators and expectations. Findings The research reveals that housing price largely depends on macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product growth and consumer spending. Cash and deposits of households are the most important indicators from the group of financial indicators. The impact of financial, business and labour market indicators on housing price varies depending on the stage of the economic cycle. Practical implications Real estate market experts and policymakers can monitor the changes in external factors that have been identified as key indicators of housing prices. Based on that, they can prepare for the changes in the real estate market better and take the necessary decisions in a timely manner, if necessary. Originality/value This study considerably adds to the existing literature by providing a better understanding of external factors that affect the housing price in Lithuania and let predict the changes in the real estate market. It is beneficial for policymakers as it lets them choose reasonable decisions aiming to stabilize the real estate market.

scholarly journals Impact of the Economic Stimulus Measures on Lithuanian Real Estate Market under the Conditions of the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 459-468
Author(s):  
Vaida Pilinkienė ◽  
Alina Stundziene ◽  
Evaldas Stankevičius ◽  
Andrius Grybauskas
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Substantial Part ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Economic Stimulus ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a number of challenges worldwide regarding not only the human health perspective, but also the economic situation. Quarantine, imposed in many countries, forced a substantial part of businesses to close or narrow down their activities, thus leaving corporations and employees without any or with lower income. If national governments had not undertaken any actions to save national economies, the consequences could have been even more devastating. The real estate market is an important part of economy. Instability in the real estate market can cause financial problems, vulnerability of population’s welfare and other negative effects. This research aims to assess the impact of the economic stimulus measures on the real estate market under the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic in Lithuania. The research methods include comparative analysis, correlation analysis, stationarity test, regression analysis and the ARDL models. The results indicate that the economic stimulus measures only partially contribute to stabilization of the real estate market in Lithuania. The drop in housing prices was 2.9 percent lower because of the economic stimulus in the second quarter of 2020. Maintenance of household cash and deposits as well as lending to business enterprises are the measures that allow to stabilize the real estate market in the shortest time under the conditions of the economic shock. The other governmental support measures are also important, especially if they are aimed at preserving jobs.

scholarly journals Real estate market in the time of pandemic: current trends and projections

2021 ◽  
pp. 51-62
Author(s):  
Irina Alekseevna Korostelkina ◽  
Nadezhda Vladimirovna Voronkova
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
The State ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Impact

The object of this research is the real estate market, while the subject of is the socioeconomic relations between all actors of the real estate market established in the context of implementation of restrictive measures due to COVID-19 pandemic. The authors examine the key theoretical aspects of the real estate market, analyze the dynamics in the housing (including premium segment), commercial, office and other property; make projections and align expert opinions on long-term development associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Emphasis is placed on the impact of changes in mortgage lending with a lower interest rate under the State Support 2020 program development for the development of new-build property market. The following conclusions were made: paradoxicalness of the development of real estate market during the COVID-19 pandemic, in which the obvious negative factors did not lead to a drop in property prices; ambiguity of forecasts for the development of real estate market after the coronavirus pandemic, considering its consequences; situation on the real estate market of China, Hong Kong, and the United States during the coronavirus pandemic indicate similar development scenarios, while the premium segment prices differ significantly. The authors’ special contribution consists in aligning various expert opinions and assessments on the particular elements of real estate market (reinforced by the statistical data of different countries), and formulating a general conclusion on the state of this economic segment under the current conditions of pandemic.

scholarly journals Modeling the Real Estate Prices in Olsztyn under Instability Conditions

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirosław Bełej ◽  
Sławomir Kulesza
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Intrinsic Property ◽  
Small Variation ◽  
Smooth Curve ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Stability

Abstract The paper deals with the description of the issues related to the dynamics of the real estate market in terms of sharp, unexpected changes in the housing prices which have been observed in the last decade in many European countries due to some macroeconomic circumstances. When such perturbations appear, the real estate market is said to be structurally unstable, since even a small variation in the control parameters might result in a large, structural change in the state of the whole system. The essential problem addressed in the paper is the need to define and discriminate between the intervals of stable and unstable real estate market development with special attention paid to the latter. The research aims at modeling hardly explored field of discontinuous changes in the real estate market in order to reveal the bifurcation edge. Assuming that the periods of sudden price changes reflect an intrinsic property of the real estate market, it is shown that the evolution path draws for most of the time a smooth curve onto the stability area of the equilibrium surface, and only briefly penetrates into the instability area to hop to another equilibrium state.

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