scholarly journals Kebijakan Vaksinasi COVID-19: Pendekatan Pemodelan Matematika Dinamis Pada Efektivitas Dan Dampak Vaksin Di Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Narila Mutia Nasir ◽  
Ibnu Susanto Joyosemito ◽  
Baequni Boerman ◽  
Ismaniah Ismaniah
Keyword(s):  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
World Health ◽  
Vaccination Program ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Vaccine Impact ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Abstract   The COVID-19 vaccination program in Indonesia that started on January 13, 2021 is expected to accelerate the herd immunity that will impact on reducing the infected cases. The World Health Organization (WHO) explained that vaccine performance can be measured through vaccine efficacy, effectiveness, and impact. This community service activity aims to provide inputs for policy implementation on COVID-19 vaccination strategy to the government by conducting predictive analysis using a dynamic mathematical modeling to determine the effectiveness and impact of vaccination at the community level. Five types of vaccines were analyzed, namely AstraZeneca, Moderna, Pfizer, Sinopharm and Sinovac. Two basic model scenarios of with and without the vaccination policy implementation were simulated. The model demonstrated that the policy noticeably reduces the number of COVID-19 cases. The main finding demonstrated by the model is that the effectiveness of the vaccine after it is immunized into the community is affected by its efficacy, but the efficacy of various vaccines type does not influence significantly to the vaccine impact on community. Thus, it is recommended that the government ensures the availability of any type of vaccines to accelerate the vaccination program and encourage community participation to be vaccinated to achieve the target goal. Furthermore, since the impact of vaccine on the community is not only determined by its efficacy, the government have to do persistent health education and drive community engagement to adhere with the COVID-19 health protocol.   Keywords: COVID-19, Dynamics Modeling, High Leverage Policy, Vaccine Effectiveness, Vaccine Impact   Abstrak   Program vaksinasi COVID-19 di Indonesia yang mulai dilaksanakan pada tanggal 13 Januari 2021 diharapkan dapat mempercepat terjadinya kekebalan kelompok (herd immunity) yang nantinya berdampak pada penurunan jumlah kasus yang terinfeksi. Organisasi Kesehatan Dunia (WHO) memaparkan bahwa kinerja vaksin dapat dilihat dari tiga pengukuran yaitu melalui efikasi, efektivitas, dan dampak vaksin. Kegiatan pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini bertujuan untuk memberikan masukan kepada pemerintah dalam mengimplementasikan strategi vaksinasi COVID-19 dengan menyediakan analisis prediksi menggunakan pemodelan matematika dinamis untuk mengetahui efektivitas dan dampak vaksinasi pada tingkat masyarakat. Lima jenis vaksin yang dianalisis adalah AstraZeneca, Moderna, Pfizer, Sinopharm dan Sinovac. Dua skenario dasar pemodelan yaitu dengan dan tanpa intervensi kebijakan vaksinasi disimulasikan. Hasil keluaran model menunjukkan kebijakan vaksinasi memberikan dampak dalam penurunan jumlah kasus COVID-19. Temuan utama yang didemonstrasikan oleh model adalah efektivitas vaksin setelah diimunisasikan ke masyarakat dipengaruhi oleh efikasinya, tetapi efikasi antar jenis vaksin tidak terlalu berpengaruh terhadap dampak vaksin di masyarakat. Oleh karena itu disarankan agar pemerintah menjamin ketersediaan vaksin apa pun jenisnya untuk mengakselerasi proses vaksinasi ke masyarakat dan mendorong partisipasi masyarakat untuk divaksin sehingga target yang sudah ditetapkan tercapai. Selanjutnya, mengingat bahwa dampak vaksin di masyarakat bukan hanya ditentukan oleh efikasinya, maka pemerintah harus terus melakukan upaya edukasi dan mendorong pelibatan masyarakat secara aktif untuk patuh menerapkan protokol kesehatan COVID-19.   Kata kunci: COVID-19, Pemodelan Dinamis, Kebijakan Berpengaruh Tinggi, Efektivitas Vaksin, Dampak Vaksin

scholarly journals Pendekatan Pemodelan Matematika Dinamis Dalam Analisis Prediksi COVID-19 Sebagai Masukan Kebijakan Pemerintah Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Ibnu Susanto Joyosemito ◽  
Narila Mutia Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Social Restriction ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Uncertain Time ◽  
The Impact

World Health Organization has declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) as pandemic on March 11, 2020. It becomes a global health issue since all countries over the world including Indonesia are fighting against the disease. In order to minimize the impact of COVID-19, the government need to implement the right policy. One of the important elements in deciding the policy is by having the estimation of the COVID-19 cases using the modeling simulation. The objective of this community service activity was to provide the analysis the COVID-19 cases in Indonesia using a dynamic modeling approach. Two basic scenarios of with and without the policy implementation was simulated simultaneously with Monte Carlo method. The model results demonstrated that it needs to implement Large Scale Social Restriction (LSSR) policy to reduce the contact rate in order to reduce the spread of transmission and to extend the period of LSSR until the peak of pandemic in Indonesia is passed. The peak of pandemic under LSSR policy scenario will be reached in the middle of July. Those result were presented twice to government party. Unfortunately, the LSSR was relaxed soon after the second presentation. A precise prediction by the model was occurred when the relaxation of LSRR was implemented, then the peak of COVID-19 pandemic was shift to the uncertain time. It is suggested that the stakeholders especially the policy maker should consider the modeling analysis as a tool for helping in the policy arrangement of COVID-19 countermeasure.   Keywords: COVID-19, Dynamics Modeling, High Leverage Policy, Social Restriction   Abstrak   Organisasi Kesehatan Dunia (WHO) telah menetapkan Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) sebagai pandemi pada 11 Maret 2020. COVID-19 menjadi isu kesehatan secara global karena semua negara di dunia termasuk Indonesia sedang berjuang melawannya. Untuk meminimalisir dampak COVID-19, pemerintah perlu menerapkan kebijakan yang tepat. Salah satu elemen penting dalam pengambilan keputusan adalah dengan melakukan estimasi kasus COVID-19 dengan menggunakan pemodelan. Kegiatan pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini bertujuan untuk menyediakan analisis kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia dengan menggunakan pendekatan pemodelan dinamis. Dua buah basis skenario yaitu dengan dan tanpa implementasi kebijakan disimulasikan secara bersamaan dengan metode Monte Carlo. Hasil keluaran model menunjukkan perlunya penerapan kebijakan Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB) untuk mengurangi laju kontak (contact rate) dengan penderita guna mengurangi penyebaran penularan dan memperpanjang periode PSBB hingga puncak pandemi COVID-19 di Indonesia terlampaui. Puncak pandemi dalam skenario kebijakan PSBB akan terjadi pada pertengahan Juli. Hasil pemodelan tersebut sudah dua kali dipresentasikan kepada pihak pemerintah. Sayangnya, PSBB diperlonggar diimplementasikan oleh pemerintah setelah presentasi kedua. Prediksi yang tepat secara kuantitatif oleh model terjadi pada saat PSBB diperlonggar diimplementasikan oleh karenanya puncak pandemi COVID-19 bergeser ke waktu yang belum dapat dipastikan. Untuk itu disarankan agar para pemangku kepentingan terutama pembuat kebijakan dapat mempertimbangkan analisis pemodelan sebagai alat bantu dalam menyusun kebijakan untuk tindakan penanggulangan COVID-19.   Kata kunci: COVID-19, Modeling, Kebijakan Berpengaruh Tinggi, Pembatasan Sosial

Novel Coronavirus 2019 Outbreak: A Global Epidemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 1458-1464
Author(s):  
Sweta Kamboj ◽  
Rohit Kamboj ◽  
Shikha Kamboj ◽  
Kumar Guarve ◽  
Rohit Dutt
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Upper Respiratory Tract ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government ◽  
Tract Disease ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Background: In the 1960s, the human coronavirus was designated, which is responsible for the upper respiratory tract disease in children. Back in 2003, mainly 5 new coronaviruses were recognized. This study directly pursues to govern knowledge, attitude and practice of viral and droplet infection isolation safeguard among the researchers during the outbreak of the COVID-19. Introduction: Coronavirus is a proteinaceous and infectious pathogen. It is an etiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Coronavirus, appeared in China from the seafood and poultry market last year, which has spread in various countries, and has caused several deaths. Methods: The literature data has been taken from different search platforms like PubMed, Science Direct, Embase, Web of Science, who.int portal and complied. Results: Corona virology study will be more advanced and outstanding in recent years. COVID-19 epidemic is a threatening reminder not solely for one country but all over the universe. Conclusion: In this review article, we encapsulated the pathogenesis, geographical spread of coronavirus worldwide, also discussed the perspective of diagnosis, effective treatment, and primary recommendations by the World Health Organization, and guidelines of the government to slow down the impact of the virus are also optimistic, efficacious and obliging for the public health. However, it will take a prolonged time in the future to overcome this epidemic.

scholarly journals The implementation of policies and the impact of handling Covid-19 originating from the World Health Organization's Point of View

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-30
Author(s):  
Pham Hoang
Keyword(s):  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
World Health ◽  
Government Decision ◽  
The World ◽  
Response Measures ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic And Social Impacts

The purpose of this article is to describe the capacity and role of WHO in dealing with the spread of COVID-19 and to discuss in-depth articles at the stages of policy implementation that specifically discuss the WHO protocol that is applied in dealing with the spread of Covid-19. The implementation of the policy to handle the spread of COVID-19 considers various aspects not only health but also the economic and social impacts resulting from government decision making. In addition, response measures are implemented through the Acceleration of COVID-19 Handling task which is part of the formation of structures, structure is one of the aspects that are considered in Edward III's implementation theory besides communication, resources and disposition because the presence of a structure helps implement policies has a significant effect. on policy implementation. The support of all elements of the government, the private sector in compliance with government and WHO instructions, especially regarding social distancing and physical distancing, will have a big impact in preventing the spread of COVID-19.

Covid-19 Vaccine Benefits and Concerns: Nigerian Perspectives

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olorunfemi Ayeotan
Keyword(s):  
Drug Resistance ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The World ◽  
Poor Understanding ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization

The World Health Organization reported 162,184,263 cases of COVID-19 and about 3,364,446 deaths globally with Nigeria statistics at 165,709 reported cases and 2,066 deaths as of May 16 2021. This increase in reported cases and deaths globally can be drastically reduced when significant number of the population of the world becomes vaccinated. Researchers have developed different COVID-19 vaccines in a bid to control the morbidity and mortality rate as well as mitigate disease severity. Popular concerns about the vaccine in Nigeria and Africa ranges from effectiveness and side effects, poor understanding of the virus, lack of trust in the government, fear of the vaccine being used as a bioweapon designed by advanced countries to reduce the population of the poor ones by causing infertility, and lack of appropriate infrastructure for safe storage of the vaccine. Howbeit, the vaccine has been proven to be safe and effective. Nationwide delivery and acceptance will confer herd immunity and curb the menace of drug resistance.

scholarly journals Impact of lockdown measures in abating the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from India’s phased approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Singh ◽  
K Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Public ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020 and characterized the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as a pandemic on 11 March 2020. India enacted such measures early on for effective mitigation and suppression to reduce community transmission, including an onerous national lockdown. The impact of the health system governance is quite apparent among all stakeholders including the public in such emergency contexts. Methods We compiled the daily data on the number of COVID-19 cases, recoveries and deaths from January 30th until June 16th, 2020. Different stages were categorized from post PHEIC declaration (pre-lockdown) phase to lockdown phases and unlocking phase as implemented. The several measures adopted by the national government were structured in four broad categories as Governance and socioeconomic, travel restrictions, lockdown and public health measures. These measures were compared during each phase. Results It was revealed that while the cases are rising the phased restrictions has helped in delaying the peak and remarkably interrupted the rate of transmission. The national average doubling rate was 3 days at the beginning which improved to 22 days. The basic reproduction number remained close to 1 during the last week of lockdown. However, the initial interruption of needed aid and technical support had negative social and economic impacts on the affected population. Conclusions As the situation abates following the measures adopted by the government, an articulate strategy of unlocking through increased testing and prompt isolation needs to be developed for more effective reduction and protecting the livelihoods allowing to further relax the lockdown measures. Key messages There is need for the local government to consider a strategic easing of the lockdown for protecting the rights of the most affected population. As the transmission rates are low, the easing of lockdown can be benefited from improved testing and prompt isolation.

scholarly journals Inequitable allocation of deep community wells for reducing arsenic exposure in Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. van Geen ◽  
K. M. Ahmed ◽  
E. B. Ahmed ◽  
I. Choudhury ◽  
M. R. Mozumder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Arsenic Exposure ◽  
World Health ◽  
Walking Distance ◽  
Deep Wells ◽  
Shallow Wells ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Private Wells

Community wells that extend deeper than most private wells are crucial for reducing exposure to groundwater arsenic (As) in rural Bangladesh. This study evaluates the impact on access to safe drinking water of 915 such intermediate (90–150 m) and deep (>150 m) wells across a 180 km2 area where a total of 48,790 tubewells were tested with field kits in 2012–13. Half the shallow private wells meet the Bangladesh standard of 50 μg/L for As in drinking water, whereas 92% of the intermediate and deep wells meet the more restrictive World Health Organization guideline for As in drinking water of 10 μg/L. As a proxy for water access, distance calculations show that 29% of shallow wells with >50 μg/L As are located within walking distance (100 m) of at least one of the 915 intermediate or deep wells. Similar calculations for a hypothetical more even distribution of deep wells show that 74% of shallow wells with >50 μg/L As could have been located within 100 m of the same number of deep wells. These observations and well-usage data suggest that community wells in Araihazar, and probably elsewhere in Bangladesh, were not optimally allocated by the government because of elite capture.

scholarly journals Impacts of COVID-19 on the Catch of Small-Scale Fishers and Their Families Due to Restriction Policies in Davao Gulf, Philippines

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edison D. Macusi ◽  
Stefenie Katrin V. Siblos ◽  
Martha Elena Betancourt ◽  
Erna S. Macusi ◽  
Michael N. Calderon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Philippines ◽  
World Health ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Reduced Mobility ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization in 2020 with countries putting up several measures to mitigate and flatten the curve of hospitalizations and death from travel bans to home confinements and local lockdowns. This pandemic created health and economic crises, leading to increased incidence of poverty and food crisis especially on both agriculture and the fisheries in many developing nations including the Philippines. The specific objectives of this study were to assess the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of small-scale fishers and to determine what factors could influence the volume of their catch during this time of pandemic. Moreover, this also investigated the impact of COVID-19 restrictions to fishers and their families. To do that we surveyed N = 200 small-scale fishers around the Davao gulf using semi-structured questionnaire and inquired on the impact of the COVID-19 to their fishing operation, catch, fishing costs, and their families. The collected socioeconomic variables, including emotional responses to the pandemic were then related to the CPUE and the volume of catch. The results show that fishers were highly affected by the pandemic due to the lockdown policy imposed in the fishing villages during the earlier phases of restrictions by the government. Fishers were affected in terms of the volume of their catch, also fishing costs, and emotionally as they were also frustrated due to the impacts of the hard lockdown. The restricted fishing access was found to have important and major set-back on the fishing operations of fishers and the same was experienced also by the middlemen given the low fish price and reduced mobility of the fish traders. COVID-19 also impacted the fishers, and their families through lack of mobility, food inadequacy, travel restrictions and their children’s education.

scholarly journals A Study on Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Sectors of Indian Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
World Health ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
The Social ◽  
Political Dimensions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 emerged in China in December. The World Health Organization declares this virus as Global Disaster in March. The coronavirus has affected the social, economic, political dimensions of the nations globally. In this study, the authors consider the impact of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) on the different activities of primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors of the Indian Economy and various policies and reforms have been taken by the government. The secondary data is collected to put down this literature. Each sector of the economy faces chaos due to coronavirus. Migrant workers or laborers go to their state in the lockdown, a ban on materials, electronics imported from china, supply chain disruption, disturbance in the cash flow are some of the majors' reasons that lead to the uncertainty in different sectors. A fund issued by the Government can be utilized effectively to give benefits to employees, workers, farmers, organizations, and industries.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Vaccination Strategy in China: A Case Study

Epidemiologia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 402-425
Author(s):  
Marjan Mohamadi ◽  
Yuling Lin ◽  
Mélissa Vuillet Soit Vulliet ◽  
Antoine Flahault ◽  
Liudmila Rozanova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Infected Patient ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
World Health ◽  
Vaccination Program ◽  
The World ◽  
Important Player ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China was first reported to the World Health Organization on 31 December 2019, after the first cases were officially identified around 8 December 2019. However, the case of an infected patient of 55 years old can probably be traced back on 17 November. The spreading has been rapid and heterogeneous. Economic, political and social impacts have not been long overdue. This paper, based on English, French and Chinese research in national and international databases, aims to study the COVID-19 situation in China through the management of the outbreak and the Chinese response to vaccination strategy. The coronavirus disease pandemic is under control in China through non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the mass vaccination program has been launched to further prevent the disease and progressed steadily with 483.34 million doses having been administered across the country by 21 May 2021. China is also acting as an important player in the development and production of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria: Misconception Among Individuals, Impact on Animals and the Role of Mathematical Epidemiologists

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oluwasegun Micheal Ibrahim ◽  
Damilola Daniel Ekundayo
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Good People ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Virus ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, to be a pandemic. Since the declaration, Nigeria economy has been greatly impacted thus resulting in a recession. This paper considers a couple of misconceptions among Nigerian people in the COVID-19 pandemic era thereby causing the spread of the novel virus and hence making the situation difficult for the government to handle. In particular, we discuss the first and second waves of the pandemic as it affects the Nigerian people. The impact of the pandemic on animals and the role of mathematical epidemiologists in combatting the spread is discussed herein. We give some recommendations that could be adopted by the government and the good people of Nigeria to reduce the further spread of the virus.

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