Nationwide assessment of the impact of climate change on agricultural water resources in Japan using multiple emission scenarios in CMIP5

In the last two decades, different climate downscaling initiatives provided climate scenarios for Europe. The most recent initiative, CORDEX, provides Regional Climate Model (RCM) data for Europe with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, while the previous initiative, ENSEMBLES, had a spatial resolution of 25 km. They are based on different emission scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) respectively.A study carried out by Stanzel et al. (2018) explored the hydrological impact and discharge projections for the Danube basin upstream of Vienna when using either CORDEX and ENSEMBLES data. This basin covers an area of 101.810km2 with a mean annual discharge of 1923 m3/s at the basin outlet. The basin is dominated by the Alps, large gradients and is characterized by high annual precipitations sums which provides valuable water resources available along the basin. Hydropower therefore plays an important role and accounts for more than half of the installed power generating capacity for this area. The estimation of hydropower generation under climate change is an important task for planning the future electricity supply, also considering the on-going EU efforts and the &#8220;Green Deal&#8221; initiative.Taking as input the results from Stanzel et al. (2018), we use transfer functions derived from historical discharge and hydropower generation data, to estimate potential changes for the future. The impact of climate change projections of ENSEMBLE and CORDEX in respect to hydropower generation for each basin within the study area is determined. In addition, an assessment of the impact on basins dominated by runoff river plants versus basins dominated by storage plants is considered.The good correlation between discharge and hydropower generation found in the historical data suggests that discharge projection characteristics directly affect the future expected hydropower generation. Large uncertainties exist and stem from the ensembles of climate runs, but also from the potential operation modes of the (storage) hydropower plants in the future.&#160;&#160;References:Stanzel, P., Kling, H., 2018. From ENSEMBLES to CORDEX: Evolving climate change projections for Upper Danube River flow. J. Hydrol. 563, 987&#8211;999. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.06.057&#160;

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Integrated assessment of impact of water resources of important river basins in Eastern India under projected climate conditions

Global NEST Journal ◽

10.30955/gnj.001658 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 17 (3) ◽

pp. 594-606 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Catchment Area ◽

River Basins ◽

Weather Data ◽

Distributed Hydrological Model ◽

Eastern India ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

The Impact

<div> The impact of climate change on water resources through increased evaporation combined with regional changes in precipitation characteristics has the potential to affect mean runoff, frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture and water supply for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) system is the largest in India with a catchment area of about 110Mha, which is more than 43% of the cumulative catchment area of all the major rivers in the country. The river Damodar is an important sub catchment of GBM basin and its three tributaries- the Bokaro, the Konar and the Barakar form one important tributary of the Bhagirathi-Hughli (a tributary of Ganga) in its lower reaches. The present study is an attempt to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources of the four important Eastern River Basins namely Damodar, Subarnarekha, Mahanadi and Ajoy, which have immense importance in industrial and agricultural scenarios in eastern India. A distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS) has been used on the four river basins using HadRM2 daily weather data for the period from 2041 to 2060 to predict the impact of climate change on water resources of these river systems.  </div>

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Relationships Between Land Degradation and Climate Change Vulnerability of Agricultural Water Resources

10.1109/igarss47720.2021.9553489 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

N. Kussul ◽

L. Shumilo ◽

L. Garanis

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Degradation ◽

Agricultural Water ◽

Climate Change Vulnerability ◽

Agricultural Water Resources

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Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale

Water ◽

10.3390/w11091790 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 1790 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Muhammad Afzal ◽

Ragab Ragab

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

Catchment Scale ◽

High Emission ◽

The Impact

Although the climate change projections are produced by global models, studying the impact of climatic change on water resources is commonly investigated at catchment scale where the measurements are taken, and water management decisions are made. For this study, the Frome catchment in the UK was investigated as an example of midland England. The DiCaSM model was applied using the UKCP09 future climate change scenarios. The climate projections indicate that the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and streamflow was projected under high emission scenarios in the 2080s. Under the medium and high emission scenarios, model results revealed that the frequency and severity of drought events would be the highest. The drought indices, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and Wetness Index, WI, predicted an increase in the severity of future drought events under the high emission scenarios. Increasing broadleaf forest area would decrease streamflow and groundwater recharge. Urban expansion could increase surface runoff. Decreasing winter barley and grass and increasing oil seed rape, would increase SMD and slightly decrease river flow. Findings of this study are helpful in the planning and management of the water resources considering the impact of climate and land use changes on variability in the availability of surface and groundwater resources.

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Risk assessment of meteorological drought in China under RCP scenarios from 2016 to 2050

10.5194/nhess-2016-257 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Kuo Li ◽

Jie Pan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Water Resources ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Sensitivity Index ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Climate change has been a hotspot of scientific research in the world for decades, which caused serious effects of agriculture, water resources, ecosystem, environment, human health and so on. In China, drought accounts for almost 50 % of the total loss among all the meteorological disasters. In this article the interpolated and corrected precipitation of one GCM (HadGEM2-ES) output under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were used to analyze the drought. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) calculated with these data was used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological perspectives. Based on five levels of SPI, an integrated index of drought hazard (IIDH) was established, which could explain the frequency and intensity of meteorological drought in different regions. According to yearbooks of different provinces, 15 factors have been chosen which could represent the impact of drought on human being, crops, water resources and economy. Exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptation index have been calculated in almost 2400 counties and vulnerability of drought has been evaluated. Based on hazard and vulnerability evaluation of drought, risk assessment of drought in China under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 emission scenarios from 2016 to 2050 has been done. Results from such a comprehensive study over the whole country could be used not only to inform on potential impacts for specific sectors but also can be used to coordinate adaptation/mitigation strategies among different sectors/regions by the central government.

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Understanding Future Water Challenges in a Highly Regulated Indian River Basin—Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Narmada

Water ◽

10.3390/w12061762 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1762 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Nathan Rickards ◽

Thomas Thomas ◽

Alexandra Kaelin ◽

Helen Houghton-Carr ◽

Sharad K. Jain ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Large Scale ◽

Monsoon Season ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

The Impact ◽

Availability Assessment

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin.

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