scholarly journals Long-term seismic forecast (lTSF) for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc VI 2019–V 2024; properties of precursory seismic activity in I 2017–V 2019. Development and practical application of the LTSF method

2019 ◽  
pp. 6-22
Author(s):  
S. A. Fedotov ◽  
A. V. Solomatin
Keyword(s):  
Method Development ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Seismic Cycle ◽  
Seismic Safety ◽  
Temporal Features ◽  
Ongoing Work ◽  
Precursory Seismic Activity ◽  
Administrative Center ◽  
Very High

The paper presents the results of the ongoing work on the method of the long-term seismic forecast (LTSF) for the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc. The method is based on seismic gaps and seismic cycle patterns. The work also reveals the most important trends of the method development over the prior decade. Based on the main methodology the long-term forecast is given for the next 5 years from VI 2019 to V 2024 period, for the most active part of the regions seismogenic zone. The seismic cycle stages are predicted for the next five years, the normalized characteristic of the weak earthquakes (A10) amount, the earthquakes with the medium magnitudes expecting with the 0.8, 0.5 and 0.15 probabilities, the maximum expected magnitudes and the strongest with the M 7.7 earthquakes probabilities for 20 of its zones. The famous works of S.A. Fedotov resulted in further research of the regional seismic processs spatial and temporal features within the 2017 period, including the strongest (M = 7.7) July 17, 2017 Near-Aleutian Earthquake. The results confirm close seismic process relation in the most seismically dangerous, according to the LTSF data zones and major events in the region itself and the adjacent seismic regions, as well as the current very high seismic hazard in some zones of the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc and the need to continue and increase the works being done for earthquake resistance and seismic safety in the most endangered zones and of course in administrative center of Kamchatka the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii city.

scholarly journals Differentiation of Transbaikal Territory by Tick-Borne Viral Encephalitis Incidence

2020 ◽  
pp. 108-114
Author(s):  
A. O. Turanov ◽  
A. Ya. Nikitin ◽  
E. I. Andaev ◽  
S. V. Balakhonov ◽  
N. I. Shashina
Keyword(s):  
Viral Encephalitis ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Confidential Interval ◽  
Disease Manifestation ◽  
Epidemiological Risk ◽  
Administrative Center ◽  
Very High ◽  
Reporting Data

Objective of the study was to differentiate the Administrative Districts of theTransbaikalTerritory at the time of Tick-borne viral encephalitis (TBVE) incidence recession by epidemiological risk groups and to characterize them by volume of specific and nonspecific preventive measures.Materials and methods. Retrospective analysis of TBVE epidemiological situation is based on the statistical reporting data “Information on infectious and parasitic diseases” in 2009–2019 and other materials of the Rospotrebnadzor Administration in the Transbaikal Territory. The clustering of areas with various levels of epidemiological risk was conducted by calculation of 95 % confidential interval for long-term annual average of TBVE cases in municipal units of the Territory over a decade and assessment of appurtenance of the deviating values to the aggregate under study.Results and discussion. Twenty four out of 32 districts of the Transbaikal Territory are endemic for TBVE. These areas are divided into five groups: with very high epidemiological risk (2 districts), high (5), medium (8), and low (8) risk respectively, as well as the administrative center of the constituent entity which by the whole complex of indicators (disease manifestation, population density, factors of targeted TBVE decrease, social-and-living and economical conditions) cannot be considered together with the rest of municipalities. Each group of the districts was characterized by the number of cases and TBVE incidence rates, medical aid seeking by persons who suffered from tick bites, vaccination volumes, seroprevention, areas of acaricide treatments. Recommendations are presented for the essential complex and scope of measures to prevent TBVE in the groups of administrative districts that differ by the level of epidemiological risk.

SATELLITE DATA FOR INVESTIGATION OF RECENT STATE AND PROCESSES IN THE SIVASH BAY

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Shchurova ◽  
Ekaterina Shchurova ◽  
Rimma Stanichnaya ◽  
Rimma Stanichnaya ◽  
Sergey Stanichny ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Data ◽  
Water Exchange ◽  
High Salinity ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Azov Sea ◽  
Seasonal Wind ◽  
Ice Regime ◽  
Very High

Sivash bay is the shallow-water lagoon of the Azov Sea. Restricted water exchange and high evaporation form Sivash as the basin with very high salinity. This factor leads to different from the Azov Sea thermal and ice regimes of Sivash. Maine aim of the study presented to investigate recent state and changes of the characteristics and processes in the basin using satellite data. Landsat scanners TM, ETM+, OLI, TIRS together with MODIS and AVHRR were used. Additionally NOMADS NOAA and MERRA meteorological data were analyzed. The next topics are discussed in the work: 1. Changes of the sea surface temperature, ice regime and relation with salinity. 2. Coastal line transformation – long term and seasonal, wind impact. 3. Manifestation of the Azov waters intrusions through the Arabat spit, preferable wind conditions.

Positive Emotions

2009 ◽  
pp. 12-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Cohn ◽  
Barbara L. Fredrickson
Keyword(s):  
Positive Emotions ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Life Outcomes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Future Success ◽  
Broaden And Build Theory ◽  
Mental And Physical Health ◽  
Very High ◽  
Future Growth

Positive emotions include pleasant or desirable situational responses, ranging from interest and contentment to love and joy, but are distinct from pleasurable sensation and undifferentiated positive affect. These emotions are markers of people's overall well-being or happiness, but they also enhance future growth and success. This has been demonstrated in work, school, relationships, mental and physical health, and longevity. The broaden-and-build theory of positive emotions suggests that all positive emotions lead to broadened repertoires of thoughts and actions and that broadening helps build resources that contribute to future success. Unlike negative emotions, which are adapted to provide a rapid response to a focal threat, positive emotions occur in safe or controllable situations and lead more diffusely to seeking new resources or consolidating gains. These resources outlast the temporary emotional state and contribute to later success and survival. This chapter discusses the nature of positive emotions both as evolutionary adaptations to build resources and as appraisals of a situation as desirable or rich in resources. We discuss the methodological challenges of evoking positive emotions for study both in the lab and in the field and issues in observing both short-term (“broaden”) and long-term (“build”) effects. We then review the evidence that positive emotions broaden perception, attention, motivation, reasoning, and social cognition and ways in which these may be linked to positive emotions' effects on important life outcomes. We also discuss and contextualize evidence that positive emotions may be detrimental at very high levels or in certain situations. We close by discussing ways in which positive emotions theory can be harnessed by both basic and applied positive psychology research.

scholarly journals The stop-start control of seismicity by fault bends along the Main Himalayan Thrust

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharadha Sathiakumar ◽  
Sylvain Barbot
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazards ◽  
Geodetic Data ◽  
Source Mechanism ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Seismic Cycle ◽  
Rupture Propagation ◽  
Alternative Models ◽  
Nepal Earthquake

AbstractThe Himalayan megathrust accommodates most of the relative convergence between the Indian and Eurasian plates, producing cycles of blind and surface-breaking ruptures. Elucidating the mechanics of down-dip segmentation of the seismogenic zone is key to better determine seismic hazards in the region. However, the geometry of the Himalayan megathrust and its impact on seismicity remains controversial. Here, we develop seismic cycle simulations tuned to the seismo-geodetic data of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake to better constrain the megathrust geometry and its role on the demarcation of partial ruptures. We show that a ramp in the middle of the seismogenic zone is required to explain the termination of the coseismic rupture and the source mechanism of up-dip aftershocks consistently. Alternative models with a wide décollement can only explain the mainshock. Fault structural complexities likely play an important role in modulating the seismic cycle, in particular, the distribution of rupture sizes. Fault bends are capable of both obstructing rupture propagation as well as behave as a source of seismicity and rupture initiation.

Long-term outcome for very high-risk prostate cancer treated primarily with a triple modality approach to include permanent interstitial brachytherapy

Brachytherapy ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 250-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Bittner ◽  
Gregory S. Merrick ◽  
Wayne M. Butler ◽  
Robert W. Galbreath ◽  
Jonathan Lief ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Interstitial Brachytherapy ◽  
Term Outcome ◽  
Long Term Outcome ◽  
High Risk Prostate Cancer ◽  
Risk Prostate Cancer ◽  
Modality Approach ◽  
Very High

Predicting Human Mobility with Reinforcement-Learning-Based Long-Term Periodicity Modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Shuo Tao ◽  
Jingang Jiang ◽  
Defu Lian ◽  
Kai Zheng ◽  
Enhong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Reinforcement Learning ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Recurrent Network ◽  
Mobility Prediction ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Temporal Features ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Historical Trajectory

Mobility prediction plays an important role in a wide range of location-based applications and services. However, there are three problems in the existing literature: (1) explicit high-order interactions of spatio-temporal features are not systemically modeled; (2) most existing algorithms place attention mechanisms on top of recurrent network, so they can not allow for full parallelism and are inferior to self-attention for capturing long-range dependence; (3) most literature does not make good use of long-term historical information and do not effectively model the long-term periodicity of users. To this end, we propose MoveNet and RLMoveNet. MoveNet is a self-attention-based sequential model, predicting each user’s next destination based on her most recent visits and historical trajectory. MoveNet first introduces a cross-based learning framework for modeling feature interactions. With self-attention on both the most recent visits and historical trajectory, MoveNet can use an attention mechanism to capture the user’s long-term regularity in a more efficient way. Based on MoveNet, to model long-term periodicity more effectively, we add the reinforcement learning layer and named RLMoveNet. RLMoveNet regards the human mobility prediction as a reinforcement learning problem, using the reinforcement learning layer as the regularization part to drive the model to pay attention to the behavior with periodic actions, which can help us make the algorithm more effective. We evaluate both of them with three real-world mobility datasets. MoveNet outperforms the state-of-the-art mobility predictor by around 10% in terms of accuracy, and simultaneously achieves faster convergence and over 4x training speedup. Moreover, RLMoveNet achieves higher prediction accuracy than MoveNet, which proves that modeling periodicity explicitly from the perspective of reinforcement learning is more effective.

Erosion rates of the New Zealand Southern Alps reflect long-term tectonics and transient climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duna Roda-Boluda ◽  
Taylor Schildgen ◽  
Hella Wittmann-Oelze ◽  
Stefanie Tofelde ◽  
Aaron Bufe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Southern Alps ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Tectonic Deformation ◽  
Seismic Cycle ◽  
Erosion Rates ◽  
Alpine Fault ◽  
Oblique Convergence

<p>The Southern Alps of New Zealand are the expression of the oblique convergence between the Pacific and Australian plates, which move at a relative velocity of nearly 40 mm/yr. This convergence is accommodated by the range-bounding Alpine Fault, with a strike-slip component of ~30-40 mm/yr, and a shortening component normal to the fault of ~8-10 mm/yr. While strike-slip rates seem to be fairly constant along the Alpine Fault, throw rates appear to vary considerably, and whether the locus of maximum exhumation is located near the fault, at the main drainage divide, or part-way between, is still debated. These uncertainties stem from very limited data characterizing vertical deformation rates along and across the Southern Alps. Thermochronology has constrained the Southern Alps exhumation history since the Miocene, but Quaternary exhumation is hard to resolve precisely due to the very high exhumation rates. Likewise, GPS surveys estimate a vertical uplift of ~5 mm/yr, but integrate only over ~10 yr timescales and are restricted to one transect across the range.</p><p>To obtain insights into the Quaternary distribution and rates of exhumation of the western Southern Alps, we use new <sup>10</sup>Be catchment-averaged erosion rates from 20 catchments along the western side of the range. Catchment-averaged erosion rates span an order of magnitude, between ~0.8 and >10 mm/yr, but we find that erosion rates of >10 mm/yr, a value often quoted in the literature as representative for the entire range, are very localized. Moreover, erosion rates decrease sharply north of the intersection with the Marlborough Fault System, suggesting substantial slip partitioning. These <sup>10</sup>Be catchment-averaged erosion rates integrate, on average, over the last ~300 yrs. Considering that the last earthquake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717, these rates are representative of inter-seismic erosion. Lake sedimentation rates and coseismic landslide modelling suggest that long-term (~10<sup>3</sup> yrs) erosion rates over a full seismic cycle could be ~40% greater than our inter-seismic erosion rates. If we assume steady state topography, such a scaling of our <sup>10</sup>Be erosion rate estimates can be used to estimate rock uplift rates in the Southern Alps. Finally, we find that erosion, and hence potentially exhumation, does not seem to be localized at a particular distance from the fault, as some tectonic and provenance studies have suggested. Instead, we find that superimposed on the primary tectonic control, there is an elevation/temperature control on erosion rates, which is probably transient and related to frost-cracking and glacial retreat.</p><p>Our results highlight the potential for <sup>10</sup>Be catchment-averaged erosion rates to provide insights into the magnitude and distribution of tectonic deformation rates, and the limitations that arise from transient erosion controls related to the seismic cycle and climate-modulated surface processes.</p><p> </p><p> </p>

The Relationship Between Magnetism and Microstructure of Ethylene Pyrolysis Furnace Tubes after a Long-term Service

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 478-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingfeng Guo ◽  
Tieshan Cao ◽  
Congqian Cheng ◽  
Xianming Meng ◽  
Jie Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Saturation Magnetization ◽  
Outer Region ◽  
Cr Content ◽  
Pyrolysis Furnace ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Furnace Tube ◽  
Primary Carbides ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Very High

AbstractThe magnetism and microstructure of Cr25Ni35Nb and Cr35Ni45Nb alloy tubes after 5 years of service were investigated in this paper. The saturation magnetization of the Cr25Ni35Nb alloy tube in the thickness direction is more than 20 emu/g, and the tube becomes ferromagnetic. The inner and outer walls of Cr35Ni45Nb alloy tubes also become ferromagnetic. But the saturation magnetization of the Cr35Ni45Nb alloy tubes approaches to zero in the center zone. The primary carbides M7C3 and NbC are changed into M23C6 and G phase at the outer region of the furnace tube. However, the M23C6-type carbides were replaced by carbon-rich carbides M7C3 at the carburization zone. Cr-depleted zones are formed at the inner and outer walls of the furnace tubes owing to oxidation. Carburization and oxidation reduce the Cr content of the matrix. Accordingly, the saturation magnetization is very high at the carburization zone and Cr-depleted zone. The magnetism of Cr25Ni35Nb and Cr35Ni45Nb alloy tubes has a high correlation with the Cr content of the matrix. Carburization and oxidation are the main reasons that make the paramagnetic ethylene pyrolysis furnace tube change to ferromagnetic.

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