scholarly journals Comparison of warming trends over the last century around Antarctica from three coupled models

1998 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 565-570 ◽  
Author(s):  
William M. Connolley ◽  
Siobhan P. O'Farrell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Large Temperature ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
The Antarctic

We compare observed temperature variations in Antarctica with climate-model runs over the last century. The models used are three coupled global climate models (GCMs) — the UKMO, the CSIRO and the MPI forced by the CO2 increases observed over the last century, and an atmospheric model experiment forced with observed sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice extents over the last century. Despite some regions of agreement, in general the GCM runs appear to be incompatible with each other and with the observations, although the short observational record and high natural variability make verification difficult. One of the best places for a more detailed study is the Antarctic Peninsula where the density of stations is higher and station records are longer than elsewhere in Antarctica. Observations show that this area has seen larger temperature rises than anywhere else in Antarctica. None of the three GCMs simulate such large temperature changes in the Peninsula region, in either climate-change runs radiatively forced by CO2 increases or control runs which assess the level of model variability.

scholarly journals Characterisation of the Antarctic stratospheric vortex mixing barrier

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Christopher Cameron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Effective Diffusivity ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Model Representation ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>The strongest stratospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is the Antarctic Circumpolar Vortex (ACV) which forms each winter and spring as a zone of westerly winds surrounding Antarctica, presenting a barrier to transport of air masses between middle and high-latitudes. This barrier contributes to stratospheric temperatures above the polar region dropping sufficiently low in spring to allow for the processes leading to ozone destruction. Unfortunately, the ACV is generally not well simulated in Global Climate Models (GCMs), and this presents a challenge for model accuracy and projections in the face of a changing climate and a recovering ozone hole.  In this research, an assessment is made of the performance of a range of mixing metrics in representing the ACV based on reanalyses, including: Effective Diffusivity, Contour Crossing, the Lagrangian function $M$, and Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that Meridional Impermeability -- which provides a measure of the strength of the meridional mixing barrier as a function of potential vorticity (PV) gradient and wind-speed -- acts as a useful proxy for more complex metrics. In addition, Meridional Impermeability displays a well-defined vortex profile across equivalent latitude, which is not seen to the same degree in the other metrics assessed.  Representation of the ACV is further compared between climate models and reanalyses based on Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that while climate models have improved in their representation of the vortex barrier over time, there are still significant discrepancies between models and reanalyses. One cause of these discrepancies may result from the use of prescribed ozone fields rather than interactive ozone chemistry. This is further examined by comparing Chemistry Climate Model (CCM) simulations using interactive ozone chemistry, with those using prescribed ozone at either 3-D (i.e., height, latitude and longitude) or 2-D (i.e., height, latitude) dimensionality.   Considerable improvement in the representation of the ACV can be achieved by shifting from 2-D to 3-D prescribed ozone fields, and interactive ozone chemistry further improves its representation. However, discrepancies in model representation of the ACV still remain. Previous researchers have also attributed discrepancies in model representation of the polar vortices to the model resolution, and the parameterization of gravity waves at the sub-grid scale -- these factors are considered to contribute to the discrepancies found in simulations undertaken here also.   The results of this research are expected to provide guidance to improve the representation of vortex processes in climate modelling.</p>

scholarly journals Multi-thousand member ensemble atmospheric simulations with global 60km resolution using climateprediction.net

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Watson ◽  
Sarah Sparrow ◽  
William Ingram ◽  
Simon Wilson ◽  
Drouard Marie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Computing System ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Multi-thousand member climate model simulations are highly valuable for showing how extreme weather events will change as the climate changes, using a physically-based approach. However, until now, studies using such an approach have been limited to using models with a resolution much coarser than the most modern systems. We have developed a global atmospheric model with 5/6&amp;#176;x5/9&amp;#176; resolution (~60km in middle latitudes) that can be run in the climateprediction.net distributed computing system to produce such large datasets. This resolution is finer than that of many current global climate models and sufficient for good simulation of extratropical synoptic features such as storms. It will also allow many extratropical extreme weather events to be simulated without requiring regional downscaling. We will show that this model's simulation of extratropical weather is competitive with that in other current models. We will also present results from the first multi-thousand member ensembles produced at this resolution, showing the impact of 1.5&amp;#176;C and 2&amp;#176;C global warming on extreme winter rainfall and extratropical cyclones in Europe.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Downscaling the climate change for oceans around Australia

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 425-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Chamberlain ◽  
C. Sun ◽  
R. J. Matear ◽  
M. Feng ◽  
S. J. Phipps
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Coupled Models

Abstract. At present, global climate models used to project changes in climate do not resolve mesoscale ocean features such as boundary currents and eddies. These missing features may be important to realistically project the marine impacts of climate change. Here we present a framework for dynamically downscaling coarse climate change projections utilising a global ocean model that resolves these features in the Australian region. The downscaling model used here is ocean-only. The ocean feedback on the air-sea fluxes is explored by restoring to surface temperature and salinity, as well as a calculated feedback to wind stress. These feedback approximations do not replace the need for fully coupled models, but they allow us to assess the sensitivity of the ocean in downscaled climate change simulations. Significant differences are found in sea surface temperature, salinity, stratification and transport between the downscaled projections and those of the climate model. While the magnitude of the climate change differences may vary with the feedback parameterisation used, the patterns of the climate change differences are consistent and develop rapidly indicating they are mostly independent of feedback that ocean differences may have on the air-sea fluxes. Until such a time when it is feasible to regularly run a global climate model with eddy resolution, our framework for ocean climate change downscaling provides an attractive way to explore how climate change may affect the mesoscale ocean environment.

scholarly journals Characterisation of the Antarctic stratospheric vortex mixing barrier

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Christopher Cameron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Effective Diffusivity ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Model Representation ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>The strongest stratospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is the Antarctic Circumpolar Vortex (ACV) which forms each winter and spring as a zone of westerly winds surrounding Antarctica, presenting a barrier to transport of air masses between middle and high-latitudes. This barrier contributes to stratospheric temperatures above the polar region dropping sufficiently low in spring to allow for the processes leading to ozone destruction. Unfortunately, the ACV is generally not well simulated in Global Climate Models (GCMs), and this presents a challenge for model accuracy and projections in the face of a changing climate and a recovering ozone hole.  In this research, an assessment is made of the performance of a range of mixing metrics in representing the ACV based on reanalyses, including: Effective Diffusivity, Contour Crossing, the Lagrangian function $M$, and Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that Meridional Impermeability -- which provides a measure of the strength of the meridional mixing barrier as a function of potential vorticity (PV) gradient and wind-speed -- acts as a useful proxy for more complex metrics. In addition, Meridional Impermeability displays a well-defined vortex profile across equivalent latitude, which is not seen to the same degree in the other metrics assessed.  Representation of the ACV is further compared between climate models and reanalyses based on Meridional Impermeability. It is shown that while climate models have improved in their representation of the vortex barrier over time, there are still significant discrepancies between models and reanalyses. One cause of these discrepancies may result from the use of prescribed ozone fields rather than interactive ozone chemistry. This is further examined by comparing Chemistry Climate Model (CCM) simulations using interactive ozone chemistry, with those using prescribed ozone at either 3-D (i.e., height, latitude and longitude) or 2-D (i.e., height, latitude) dimensionality.   Considerable improvement in the representation of the ACV can be achieved by shifting from 2-D to 3-D prescribed ozone fields, and interactive ozone chemistry further improves its representation. However, discrepancies in model representation of the ACV still remain. Previous researchers have also attributed discrepancies in model representation of the polar vortices to the model resolution, and the parameterization of gravity waves at the sub-grid scale -- these factors are considered to contribute to the discrepancies found in simulations undertaken here also.   The results of this research are expected to provide guidance to improve the representation of vortex processes in climate modelling.</p>

scholarly journals Future Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part II: The Influence of a Strongly Warming Climate on Convective Environments

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3848-3868 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Allen ◽  
David J. Karoly ◽  
Kevin J. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Eastern Australia

Abstract The influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments in Australia was explored using two global climate models: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.6 (CSIRO Mk3.6), and the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM). These models have previously been evaluated and found to be capable of reproducing a useful climatology for the twentieth-century period (1980–2000). Analyzing the changes between the historical period and high warming climate scenarios for the period 2079–99 has allowed estimation of the potential convective future for the continent. Based on these simulations, significant increases to the frequency of severe thunderstorm environments will likely occur for northern and eastern Australia in a warmed climate. This change is a response to increasing convective available potential energy from higher continental moisture, particularly in proximity to warm sea surface temperatures. Despite decreases to the frequency of environments with high vertical wind shear, it appears unlikely that this will offset increases to thermodynamic energy. The change is most pronounced during the peak of the convective season, increasing its length and the frequency of severe thunderstorm environments therein, particularly over the eastern parts of the continent. The implications of this potential increase are significant, with the overall frequency of potential severe thunderstorm days per year likely to rise over the major population centers of the east coast by 14% for Brisbane, 22% for Melbourne, and 30% for Sydney. The limitations of this approach are then discussed in the context of ways to increase the confidence of predictions of future severe convection.

The MJO-QBO Relationship in a GCM with Stratospheric Nudging

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-69
Author(s):  
Zane Martin ◽  
Clara Orbe ◽  
Shuguang Wang ◽  
Adam Sobel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Meridional Winds ◽  
Goddard Institute ◽  
Minimal Bias

AbstractObservational studies show a strong connection between the intraseasonal Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): the boreal winter MJO is stronger, more predictable, and has different teleconnections when the QBO in the lower stratosphere is easterly versus westerly. Despite the strength of the observed connection, global climate models do not produce an MJO-QBO link. Here the authors use a current-generation ocean-atmosphere coupled NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (Model E2.1) to examine the MJO-QBO link. To represent the QBO with minimal bias, the model zonal mean stratospheric zonal and meridional winds are relaxed to reanalysis fields from 1980-2017. The model troposphere, including the MJO, is allowed to freely evolve. The model with stratospheric nudging captures QBO signals well, including QBO temperature anomalies. However, an ensemble of nudged simulations still lacks an MJO-QBO connection.

Regional Climate Model Inter-Comparison for Antarctica within a Data Science Framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Carter ◽  
Amber Leeson ◽  
Andrew Orr ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Melchior van Wessem
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Virtual Lab ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
The Antarctic

&lt;p&gt;Understanding the surface climatology of the Antarctic ice sheet is essential if we are to adequately predict its response to future climate change. This includes both primary impacts such as increased ice melting and secondary impacts such as ice shelf collapse events. Given its size, and inhospitable environment, weather stations on Antarctica are sparse. Thus, we rely on regional climate models to 1) develop our understanding of how the climate of Antarctica varies in both time and space and 2) provide data to use as context for remote sensing studies and forcing for dynamical process models. Given that there are a number of different regional climate models available that explicitly simulate Antarctic climate, understanding inter- and intra model variability is important.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here, inter- and intra-model variability in Antarctic-wide regional climate model output is assessed for: snowfall; rainfall; snowmelt and near-surface air temperature within a cloud-based virtual lab framework. State-of-the-art regional climate model runs from the Antarctic-CORDEX project using the RACMO, MAR and MetUM models are used, together with the ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses products. Multiple simulations using the same model and domain boundary but run at either different spatial resolutions or with different driving data are used. Traditional analysis techniques are exploited and the question of potential added value from more modern and involved methods such as the use of Gaussian Processes is investigated. The advantages of using a virtual lab in a cloud based environment for increasing transparency and reproducibility, are demonstrated, with a view to ultimately make the code and methods used widely available for other research groups.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals A prognostic pollen emissions model for climate models (PECM1.0)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. Wozniak ◽  
Allison Steiner
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Pollen Counts ◽  
Surface Pollen

Abstract. We develop a prognostic model of Pollen Emissions for Climate Models (PECM) for use within regional and global climate models to simulate pollen counts over the seasonal cycle based on geography, vegetation type and meteorological parameters. Using modern surface pollen count data, empirical relationships between prior-year annual average temperature and pollen season start dates and end dates are developed for deciduous broadleaf trees (Acer, Alnus, Betula, Fraxinus, Morus, Platanus, Populus, Quercus, Ulmus), evergreen needleleaf trees (Cupressaceae, Pinaceae), grasses (Poaceae; C3, C4), and ragweed (Ambrosia). This regression model explains as much as 57 % of the variance in pollen phenological dates, and it is used to create a climate-flexible phenology that can be used to study the response of wind-driven pollen emissions to climate change. The emissions model is evaluated in a regional climate model (RegCM4) over the continental United States by prescribing an emission potential from PECM and transporting pollen as aerosol tracers. We evaluate two different pollen emissions scenarios in the model: (1) using a taxa-specific land cover database, phenology and emission potential, and (2) a PFT-based land cover, phenology and emission potential. The resulting surface concentrations for both simulations are evaluated against observed surface pollen counts in five climatic subregions. Given prescribed pollen emissions, the RegCM4 simulates observed concentrations within an order of magnitude, although the performance of the simulations in any subregion is strongly related to the land cover representation and the number of observation sites used to create the empirical phenological relationship. The taxa-based model provides a better representation of the phenology of tree-based pollen counts than the PFT-based model, however we note that the PFT-based version provides a useful and climate-flexible emissions model for the general representation of the pollen phenology over the United States.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

scholarly journals Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Bracegirdle ◽  
Florence Colleoni ◽  
Nerilie J. Abram ◽  
Nancy A. N. Bertler ◽  
Daniel A. Dixon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions

Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this.

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