scholarly journals Application of Grey Prediction in a GA-BP Power Theft Algorithm

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofeng Chen ◽  
Zhongping Xu ◽  
Lipeng Zhang ◽  
Feng Zhu ◽  
Xiaoming Qi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Power Grid ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Grey Prediction Model ◽  
Line Loss ◽  
Predicted Values

Statistics show that power theft is one of the main reasons for the dramatic increase in power grid line loss. In this paper, a genetic algorithm is used to optimize a neural network and establish a power theft prediction model. With the grey prediction model, the predicted values of variables are obtained and then applied to the prediction model of a GA-BP neural network to obtain relatively accurate predictions from limited samples, reducing the absolute error. Through the two levels of prediction and analysis, the model is demonstrated to have good universality in predicting power theft behavior, and is a practical and effective method for power companies to carry out power theft analysis.

Weight Loss Prediction Model for Pig Carcass Based on a Genetic Algorithm Back- Propagation Neural Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 1071-1077
Author(s):  
Chenyang Sun ◽  
Lusheng Chen ◽  
Yinian Li ◽  
Hao Yao ◽  
Nan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Weight Loss ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Back Propagation Neural Network ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Spraying Parameters ◽  
Pig Carcasses

HighlightsWe propose five spraying parameters according to the characteristics of pig carcasses in the spray-chilling process.A prediction model for pig carcass weight loss, based on a genetic algorithm back-propagation neural network, is proposed to reveal the relationship between weight loss and spraying parameters.To study the effects of various spraying parameters on weight loss, an automatic spray-chilling device was designed, which can modify up to five spraying parameters.Abstract. Because the weight loss of a pig carcass in the spray-chilling process is easily affected by the spraying frequency and duration, a prediction model for weight loss based on a genetic algorithm (GA) back-propagation (BP) neural network is proposed in this article. With three-way crossbred pig carcasses selected as the test materials, the duration and time interval of high-frequency spraying, the duration and time interval of low-frequency spraying, and the duration of a single spray were selected as inputs to the network model. The weight and threshold of the network were then optimized by the GA. The prediction model for pig carcass weight loss established by the GA BP neural network yielded a correlation coefficient of R = 0.99747 between the network output value of the test samples and the target value. Weight loss prediction by the model is feasible and allows better expression of the nonlinear relationship between weight loss and the main controlling factors. The results can be a reference for chilled meat production. Keywords: BP neural network, Genetic algorithm, Pig carcass, Predictive model, Weight loss

A Model Based on BP Neural Network for Audible Noise Prediction

2014 ◽  
Vol 986-987 ◽  
pp. 1356-1359
Author(s):  
You Xian Peng ◽  
Bo Tang ◽  
Hong Ying Cao ◽  
Bin Chen ◽  
Yu Li
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Transmission Lines ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Noise Prediction ◽  
Bp Network ◽  
Model Based

Audible noise prediction is a hot research area in power transmission engineering in recent years, especially come down to AC transmission lines. The conventional prediction models at present have got some problems such as big errors. In this paper, a prediction model is established based on BP network, in which the input variables are the four factors in the international common expression of power line audible noise and the noise value is the output. Take multiple measured power lines as an example, a train is made by the BP network and then the prediction model is set up in the hidden layer of the network. Using the trained model, the audible noise values are predicted. The final results show that the average absolute error in absolute terms of the values by the audible noise prediction model based on BP neural network is 1.6414 less than that predicted by the GE formula.

scholarly journals Optimized Erosion Prediction with MAGA Algorithm Based on BP Neural Network for Submerged Low-Pressure Water Jet

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2926
Author(s):  
Yanzhen Chen ◽  
Yihuai Hu ◽  
Shenglong Zhang ◽  
Xiaojun Mei ◽  
Qingguo Shi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Water Jet ◽  
Erosion Prediction ◽  
Pressure Water ◽  
Erosion Test ◽  
Bp Model

In order to accurately predict the erosion effect of underwater cleaning with an angle nozzle under different working conditions, this paper uses refractory bricks to simulate marine fouling as the erosion target, and studies the optimized erosion prediction model by erosion test based on the submerged low-pressure water jet. The erosion test is conducted by orthogonal experimental design, and experimental data are used for the prediction model. By combining with statistical range and variance analysis methods, the jet pressure, impact time and jet angle are determined as three inputs of the prediction model, and erosion depth is the output index of the prediction model. A virtual data generation method is used to increase the amount of input data for the prediction model. This paper also proposes a Mind-evolved Advanced Genetic Algorithm (MAGA), which has a reliable optimization effect in the verification of four stand test functions. Then, the improved back-propagating (BP) neural network prediction models are established by respectively using Genetic Algorithm (GA) and MAGA optimization algorithms to optimize the initial thresholds and weights of the BP neural network. Compared to the prediction results of the BP and GA-BP models, the R2 of the MAGA-BP model is the highest, reaching 0.9954; the total error is reduced by 47.31% and 35.01%; the root mean square error decreases by 51.05% and 31.80%; and the maximum absolute percentage error decreases by 65.79% and 64.01%, respectively. The average prediction accuracy of the MAGA-BP model is controlled within 3%, which has been significantly improved. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the MAGA-BP prediction model is higher and more reliable, and the MAGA algorithm has a good optimization effect. This optimized erosion prediction method is feasible.

scholarly journals Thermal energy diagnosis of boiler plant by computer image processing and neural network technology

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (5 Part B) ◽  
pp. 3367-3374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoli Yu ◽  
Jinge Sang ◽  
Yafei Sun
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Circuit Board ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Machine Model ◽  
Boiler Plant ◽  
Grey Prediction Model

The paper aims to study the identification and diagnosis of infrared thermal fault of airborne circuit board of equipment, expand the application of intelligent algorithm in infrared thermal fault diagnosis, and promote the development of computer image processing technology and neural network technology in the field of thermal diagnosis. Taking the airborne circuit board in the boiler plant as the research object, first, the sequential analysis method was selected to collect the temperature changes during the operation of the circuit board. Second, on the basis of convolutional neural network, the program was written in Python, and the Relu function was used as the activation function establish the thermal fault diagnosis method of the on-board circuit board of the boiler plant equipment based on the convolutional neural network model. Third, based on the support vector machine intelligent algorithm, genetic algorithm was used to optimize the parameters, and combined with the grey prediction model, the infrared thermal fault diagnosis scheme of the circuit board of the multistage support vector machine boiler plant equipment was constructed. The results showed that the accuracy of the model after 6000 iterations was stable between 0.92-0.96, and the loss function value was stable at about 0.17. After the optimization of genetic algorithm, the accuracy of thermal fault diagnosis based on support vector machine model was optimized. Compared with grey prediction model, the accuracy of support vector machine model for fault diagnosis was higher, mean square error value was 0.0258, and the correlation coefficient was 91.55%. To sum up, the support vector machin model shows higher accuracy than grey prediction model, which can be used for thermal fault diagnosis.

scholarly journals A 4D Trajectory Prediction Model Based on the BP Neural Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 1545-1557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi-Jun Wu ◽  
Shan Tian ◽  
Lan Ma
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Spline Interpolation ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Maximum Absolute Error ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Crossing Point

Abstract To solve the problem that traditional trajectory prediction methods cannot meet the requirements of high-precision, multi-dimensional and real-time prediction, a 4D trajectory prediction model based on the backpropagation (BP) neural network was studied. First, the hierarchical clustering algorithm and the k-means clustering algorithm were adopted to analyze the total flight time. Then, cubic spline interpolation was used to interpolate the flight position to extract the main trajectory feature. The 4D trajectory prediction model was based on the BP neural network. It was trained by Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast trajectory from Qingdao to Beijing and used to predict the flight trajectory at future moments. In this paper, the model is evaluated by the common measurement index such as maximum absolute error, mean absolute error and root mean square error. It also gives an analysis and comparison of the predicted over-point time, the predicted over-point altitude, the actual over-point time and the actual over-point altitude. The results indicate that the predicted 4D trajectory is close to the real flight data, and the time error at the crossing point is no more than 1 min and the altitude error at the crossing point is no more than 50 m, which is of high accuracy.

scholarly journals A Multivariate Grey Prediction Model Using Neural Networks with Application to Carbon Dioxide Emissions Forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Yu-Jing Chiu ◽  
Yi-Chung Hu ◽  
Peng Jiang ◽  
Jingci Xie ◽  
Yen-Wei Ken
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Grey Prediction Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
Grey Relational

The forecast of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has played a significant role in drawing up energy development policies for individual countries. Since data about CO2 emissions are often limited and do not conform to the usual statistical assumptions, this study attempts to develop a novel multivariate grey prediction model (MGPM) for CO2 emissions. Compared with other MGPMs, the proposed model has several distinctive features. First, both feature selection and residual modification are considered to improve prediction accuracy. For the former, grey relational analysis is used to filter out the irrelevant features that have weaker relevance with CO2 emissions. For the latter, predicted values obtained from the proposed MGPM are further adjusted by establishing a neural-network-based residual model. Prediction accuracies of the proposed MGPM were verified using real CO2 emission cases. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed MGPM performed well compared with other MGPMs considered.

The Establishment of Prediction Model for Soil Liquefaction Based on the Seismic Energy Using the Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
yan zhang ◽  
wenhui chu ◽  
Mahmood Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Seismic Energy ◽  
Soil Liquefaction ◽  
Nonlinear Relationship ◽  
Weakly Nonlinear ◽  
Fitness Value ◽  
Validation Set

Abstract In the development of the prediction model for soil liquefaction, compared to the stress-based method, the energy-based methods proposed and developed in recent years are closer to the essence of soil liquefaction which is about the energy dissipation. Therefore, considering the weak nonlinear relationship found by the previous research, the fuzzy neural network (FNN) and BP neural network (BPNN) were adopted to try to obtain a prediction model which is the most proper to this nonlinear relationship. Firstly, the database including 284 cases obtained from laboratory test was divided into three separate groups denoted as training, validation set and testing sets by the ratio of 5:1:1; then, the FNN model and BPNN model were iterated to determine the model parameter by referring to the variation of fitness value and relative error of validation set; at the same time, the optimization algorithm of genetic algorithm (GA) was adopted to BPNN to find the best coefficients; besides, the parameter of \({C}_{c}\) and \({D}_{50}\) was respectively excluded from the database to test their influence degree according to the prediction error; finally, 6 prediction results of FNN and genetic algorithm BP neural network (GABP) were compared with the previously proposed models. The results showed that the relationship of capacity energy to the influencing parameters could not be fitted as a fully linear relationship; the FNN model can learn the role of \({C}_{c}\) in affecting the capacity energy while the GABP model needs not to take it into account; the FNN and GABP model all fitted a good weakly nonlinear relationship for the capacity energy, and the GABP model is a better prediction model for capacity energy so far.

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