Research on prediction of China’s financial systematic risk based on the hybrid model

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Zhang Tingting ◽  
Tang Zhenpeng ◽  
Zhan Linjie ◽  
Du Xiaoxu ◽  
Chen Kaijie

An important feature of the outbreak of systemic financial risk is that the linkage and contagion of risk amongst the various sub-markets of the financial system have increased significantly. In addition, research on the prediction of systemic financial risk plays a significant role in the sustainable development of the financial market. Therefore, this paper takes China’s financial market as its research object, considers the risks co-activity among major financial sub-markets, and constructs a financial composite indicator of systemic stress (CISS) for China, describing its financial systemic stress based on 12 basic indicators selected from the money market, bond market, stock market, and foreign exchange market. Furthermore, drawing on the decomposition and integration technology in the TEI@I complex system research methodology, this paper introduces advanced variational mode decomposition (VMD) technology and extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithms, constructing the VMD-DE-ELM hybrid model to predict the systemic risk of China’s financial market. According to e RMSE , e MAE , and e MAPE , the prediction model’s multistep-ahead forecasting effect is evaluated. The empirical results show that the China’s financial CISS constructed in this paper can effectively identify all kinds of risk events in the sample range. The results of a robustness test show that the overall trend of China’s financial CISS and its ability to identify risk events are not affected by parameter selection and have good robustness. In addition, compared with the benchmark model, the VMD-DE-ELM hybrid model constructed in this paper shows superior predictive ability for systemic financial risk.

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Zhenpeng Tang ◽  
Tingting Zhang ◽  
Junchuan Wu ◽  
Xiaoxu Du ◽  
Kaijie Chen

The prediction research of the stock market prices is of great significance. Based on the secondary decomposition techniques of variational mode decomposition (VMD) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), this paper constructs a new hybrid prediction model by combining with extreme learning machine (ELM) optimized by the differential evolution (DE) algorithm. The hybrid model applies VMD technology to the original stock index price sequence to obtain different modal components and the residual item, then applies EEMD technology to the residual item, and then superimposes the prediction results of the DE-ELM model for each modal component and the residual item to obtain the final prediction results. In order to verify the validity of the model, this paper constructs a series of benchmark models and, respectively, tests the samples of the S&P 500 index and the HS300 index by one-step, three-step, and five-step forward forecasting. The empirical results show that the hybrid model proposed in this paper achieves the best prediction performance in all prediction scenarios, which indicates that the modeling idea focusing on the residual term effectively improves the prediction performance of the model. In addition, the prediction effect of the model combined with the decomposition technology is superior to the single DE-ELM model, where the secondary decomposition technique has a significant decomposition advantage compared to the single decomposition technique.


Information ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guohui Li ◽  
Xiao Ma ◽  
Hong Yang

The matter of success in forecasting precipitation is of great significance to flood control and drought relief, and water resources planning and management. For the nonlinear problem in forecasting precipitation time series, a hybrid prediction model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) coupled with extreme learning machine (ELM) is proposed to reduce the difficulty in modeling monthly precipitation forecasting and improve the prediction accuracy. The monthly precipitation data in the past 60 years from Yan’an City and Huashan Mountain, Shaanxi Province, are used as cases to test this new hybrid model. First, the nonstationary monthly precipitation time series are decomposed into several relatively stable intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) by using VMD. Then, an ELM prediction model is established for each IMF. Next, the predicted values of these components are accumulated to obtain the final prediction results. Finally, three predictive indicators are adopted to measure the prediction accuracy of the proposed hybrid model, back propagation (BP) neural network, Elman neural network (Elman), ELM, and EMD-ELM models: mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The experimental simulation results show that the proposed hybrid model has higher prediction accuracy and can be used to predict the monthly precipitation time series.


Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 2599
Author(s):  
Zhenbao Li ◽  
Wanlu Jiang ◽  
Sheng Zhang ◽  
Yu Sun ◽  
Shuqing Zhang

To address the problem that the faults in axial piston pumps are complex and difficult to effectively diagnose, an integrated hydraulic pump fault diagnosis method based on the modified ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD), autoregressive (AR) spectrum energy, and wavelet kernel extreme learning machine (WKELM) methods is presented in this paper. First, the non-linear and non-stationary hydraulic pump vibration signals are decomposed into several intrinsic mode function (IMF) components by the MEEMD method. Next, AR spectrum analysis is performed for each IMF component, in order to extract the AR spectrum energy of each component as fault characteristics. Then, a hydraulic pump fault diagnosis model based on WKELM is built, in order to extract the features and diagnose faults of hydraulic pump vibration signals, for which the recognition accuracy reached 100%. Finally, the fault diagnosis effect of the hydraulic pump fault diagnosis method proposed in this paper is compared with BP neural network, support vector machine (SVM), and extreme learning machine (ELM) methods. The hydraulic pump fault diagnosis method presented in this paper can diagnose faults of single slipper wear, single slipper loosing and center spring wear type with 100% accuracy, and the fault diagnosis time is only 0.002 s. The results demonstrate that the integrated hydraulic pump fault diagnosis method based on MEEMD, AR spectrum, and WKELM methods has higher fault recognition accuracy and faster speed than existing alternatives.


Forecasting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 460-477
Author(s):  
Sajjad Khan ◽  
Shahzad Aslam ◽  
Iqra Mustafa ◽  
Sheraz Aslam

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting plays a critical role in balancing energy consumption and generation, optimizing the decisions of electricity market participants, formulating energy trading strategies, and dispatching independent system operators. Despite the fact that much research on price forecasting has been published in recent years, it remains a difficult task because of the challenging nature of electricity prices that includes seasonality, sharp fluctuations in price, and high volatility. This study presents a three-stage short-term electricity price forecasting model by employing ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and extreme learning machine (ELM). In the proposed model, the EEMD is employed to decompose the actual price signals to overcome the non-linear and non-stationary components in the electricity price data. Then, a day-ahead forecasting is performed using the ELM model. We conduct several experiments on real-time data obtained from three different states of the electricity market in Australia, i.e., Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. We also implement various deep learning approaches as benchmark methods, i.e., recurrent neural network, multi-layer perception, support vector machine, and ELM. In order to affirm the performance of our proposed and benchmark approaches, this study performs several performance evaluation metric, including the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test. The results from the experiments show the productiveness of our developed model (in terms of higher accuracy) over its counterparts.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Nuzhat Fatema ◽  
H Malik ◽  
Mutia Sobihah Binti Abd Halim

This paper proposed a hybrid intelligent approach based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) methods for multi-step ahead medical tourism (MT) forecasting using explanatory input variables based on two decade real-time recorded database. In the proposed hybrid model, these variables are 1st extracted then medical tourism is forecasted to perform the long term as well as the short term goal and planning in the nation. The multi-step ahead medical tourism is forecasted recursively, by utilizing the 1st forecasted value as the input variable to generate the next forecasting value and this procedure is continued till third step ahead forecasted value. The proposed approach firstly tested and validated by using international tourism arrival (ITA) dataset then proposed approach is implemented for forecasting of medical tourism arrival in nation. In order to validate the performance and accuracy of the proposed hybrid model, a comparative analysis is performed by using Monte Carlo method and the results are compared. Obtained results shows that the proposed hybrid forecasting approach for medical tourism has outperformance characteristics.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1328
Author(s):  
Jianguo Zhou ◽  
Shiguo Wang

Carbon emission reduction is now a global issue, and the prediction of carbon trading market prices is an important means of reducing emissions. This paper innovatively proposes a second decomposition carbon price prediction model based on the nuclear extreme learning machine optimized by the Sparrow search algorithm and considers the structural and nonstructural influencing factors in the model. Firstly, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used to decompose the carbon price data and variational mode decomposition (VMD) is used to decompose Intrinsic Mode Function 1 (IMF1), and the decomposition of carbon prices is used as part of the input of the prediction model. Then, a maximum correlation minimum redundancy algorithm (mRMR) is used to preprocess the structural and nonstructural factors as another part of the input of the prediction model. After the Sparrow search algorithm (SSA) optimizes the relevant parameters of Extreme Learning Machine with Kernel (KELM), the model is used for prediction. Finally, in the empirical study, this paper selects two typical carbon trading markets in China for analysis. In the Guangdong and Hubei markets, the EMD-VMD-SSA-KELM model is superior to other models. It shows that this model has good robustness and validity.


2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Xiong ◽  
Shulin Tian ◽  
Chenglin Yang

This paper presents a novel fault diagnosis method for analog circuits using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), relative entropy, and extreme learning machine (ELM). First, nominal and faulty response waveforms of a circuit are measured, respectively, and then are decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with the EEMD method. Second, through comparing the nominal IMFs with the faulty IMFs, kurtosis and relative entropy are calculated for each IMF. Next, a feature vector is obtained for each faulty circuit. Finally, an ELM classifier is trained with these feature vectors for fault diagnosis. Via validating with two benchmark circuits, results show that the proposed method is applicable for analog fault diagnosis with acceptable levels of accuracy and time cost.


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